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2007 NFL Preview - Part III

Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.

So… uh… here we go!

Today, the AFC South, North, and East. Click here for Part I of the Preview: NFC West & North – and click here for Part II: NFC South & East, and AFC West. Also a programming note; with the NFL season kicking off on Thursday, and with my actual day job kicking into high gear with our very own Opening Day on Tuesday, I probably won’t have a ton of time this week for my weekly NFL picks. I will probably post on Wednesday for Thursday’s Indy/New Orleans game, then come back on Friday for the weekend & Monday Night Football picks.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (11-5)

Tennessee Titans: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (9-7)

Houston Texans: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (8-8)

Jacksonville Jaguars: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)

This division has belonged to the Colts for far too long. There’s no reason that another team (*cough* Titans *cough*) couldn’t move up and take advantage of all of Indy’s losses this offseason. But the fact remains, Indy is still the class of the AFC South, and they’ve got the rings to prove it. (Note: I made a decision last week – I refuse to recognize the Colts’ Super Bowl victory last February. The guy who could have easily been the Super Bowl MVP, Dominic Rhodes, was found to be on PEDs a couple weeks later. He kinda had a big game in Miami (21 carries for 113 yards)… wonder if the steroids/supplements helped at all?)

Tennessee looks to be the team that has the best chance to build off of last season. They had an outside shot at the playoffs before the final week of the season in ’06, and with another year of experience Vince Young can only get better. As long as he avoids the Madden Curse. They could easily put it together and push the Colts. And they probably will make a good run towards a Wild Card spot. The only thing that scares me is the relative uncertainty of their backfield situation.

Houston made a couple major changes this offseason, both on the offensive side of the ball, and both likely to pay dividends almost immediately. Matt Schaub was wasting away on the Falcons’ bench behind Michael Vick; now he gets the chance to run a team for a full season. And after Domanick Davis’ lost season to injury in ’06, the running game suffered through a handful of starting running backs. The addition of Ahman Green could revitalize the Texans’ offense, though he isn’t making fans forget passing up Reggie Bush or Vince Young anytime soon…

(EDIT: This was completely rewritten after the Jags’ released Byron Leftwich this past weekend. I still can’t figure that move out…) Now that Jacksonville is counting on David Garrard to run the show… well… I’m not counting on much out of them this year. Not that I’m anti-Garrard – the guy can probably play, and can definitely move around well enough to generate some offense on his own. He’s about 70% the offensive threat that Vince Young is. The problem is the timing – the team has been working under the assumption that Byron Leftwich was their starter, and then all of a sudden, he’s not only not their starter, but he’s not even on the team. Seems a little sudden to me, is all. Maybe they’ll win 10. Maybe they’ll have the #1 overall pick in ’08. I’m leaning a little more toward the latter.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: ’06 Record (13-6), ’07 Prediction (14-2)

Pittsburgh Steelers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (10-6)

Cincinnati Bengals: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (8-8)

Cleveland Browns: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (7-9)

Baltimore did nothing to get worse this offseason, and they got much, much better by bringing in Willis McGahee from the Buffalo Bills. If he doesn’t run for 1500 and 15+ TDs this season behind that line, I’ll be completely stunned. But unfortunately, they still haven’t addressed a nagging need at quarterback – Steve McNair isn’t getting any younger, and he was barely in the top half of NFL QBs last season in QB Rating (14^th of 32 with a rating of 82.5). But the defense is still dominant – a ridiculous 12.6 points allowed per game last season. Maybe they don’t need a QB after all…

In much the same way that people forget just how good the Eagles were before their QB got injured, the Steelers actually won a Super Bowl before their QB got injured. And yes, I freely admit that I’ve heard too much about the Steelers in the past four months. But the fact remains that even with a new coaching staff, the Steelers still have a very good young QB, a good running back, some pretty decent receivers, and a defense that has consistently been hard to score on. If they don’t at least push the Ravens for the division, they should be in the Wild Card hunt by late November.

The Bengals, much like the Ravens, did nothing to get worse in the offseason. Unfortunately, they did little to get better. They are without a very big deep threat in the passing game for the first half of the season while Chris Henry serves a suspension. And their defense couldn’t have more holes in it if they played with only nine on the field. For as good a QB as Carson Palmer is, he can’t fix all the problems this team has. They just don’t seem like the team that shocked the NFL a couple years back.

The Browns did a great job to start fixing their offensive ineptitude from the past few years. Of course, Brady Quinn held out of camp like an idiot, and let’s face it – the Browns were building for the future. The future is not now. They have holes at running back, wide receiver, and just about every position on defense. They’ve got a QB locked up for awhile, and the laid the cornerstone for a very good offensive line in Joe Thomas. Now they need to work on the rest of it.

AFC East

New England: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (13-3)

Buffalo Bills: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (10-6)

New York Jets: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (8-8)

Miami Dolphins: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (6-10)

Last season, the Jets shocked just about everyone not wearing a green fire helmet when they managed to win 10 games with a new head coach, no defined running game, and a questionable situation with quarterback injuries. This year, they’re not sneaking up on anybody – adding Thomas Jones was a great move, and letting him split carries with Leon Washington should keep both of them fresh throughout the year. But the fact remains – Chad Pennington has a questionable injury history, and the NY Media seems to love pushing Kellen Clemens into the starter’s role. Not to mention that they’ll be playing a 2^nd place schedule. They probably overachieved just a little last year, and should come back to Earth this season.

Buffalo is my surprise team this season – their defense has been pretty solid the past few seasons, and as much as people love to rip on him, JP Losman is quietly turning into a pretty good quarterback. They had to trade away Willis McGahee for future salary cap reasons, but grabbing Marshawn Lynch in the draft this year should ensure them a solid running game for the next few seasons. Or until Lynch starts complaining about his salary…

The Dolphins fixed their most pressing need by bringing in a proven veteran QB in Trent Green, and shipping out Daunte Culpepper. Problem is, they may have been counting on Ricky Williams’ return after his yearlong exile to Canada. Since there’s pretty much no chance he ever plays in the NFL again, they are relying on Ronnie Brown (and now Jesse Chatman?) and some type of renaissance from Chris Chambers & Marty Booker. At least the defense is still fearsome, but even they are getting older.

And finally, we come to my Patriots. (EDIT: The rest of this was rewritten after this weekend’s news that Rodney Harrison will be suspended four games and Richard Seymour has been placed on the PUP list until Week 6, and today’s cutting of Reche Caldwell. All of which blow big time.) They were the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl after completely rebuilding their offense, adding three wide receivers and a running back to a team that needed nothing more than to convert a short third down to advance to (and probably win) their fourth Super Bowl in six years. Ironic then, that the loss of two crucial members of their defense could be what costs them in the end. Some in the media had said The Patriots had a legitimate shot at a 16-0 season this year, if they could get past San Diego in Week 2, and the Colts just before the bye week in November. As it is, they shouldn’t have trouble scoring points. But for at least the first four to six weeks, they might not be able to stop any high octane offenses. Like San Diego. Or Cincinnati in Week 4. Or maybe even Dallas in Week 6. But once they’re healthy (if they’re all healthy at once), there might not be another loss on the schedule.

All the way through February.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFL, North, Preview, South

posted by Big D @ 10:46 PM