2008 NFL Preview - Post 3
Today, its part three in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. My apologies for the lack of a post yesterday – a headache kept me in bed until the mid afternoon and by then, I wasn’t in much of a mood to post.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the AFC North & West
AFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Pittsburgh (10-6)
Cleveland (10-6)
Cincinnati (7-9)
Baltimore (5-11)
Cleveland pulled out nothing short of a miracle last season, and they were rewarded with exactly the same thing they’ve gotten every year since they came back into the league – an early tee time, and a nice front row seat to watch the other twelve teams in the playoffs. I don’t know how much stock I put in Derek Anderson repeating last season’s performance, or Braylon Edwards & Kellen Winslow playing a full 16. The Browns still strike me as a team on the rise, but this season feels like it might be a small step back before they can make the next push forward. Prediction: 8-8
Baltimore made three solid picks through the draft in Joe Flacco, Ray Rice & Tom Zbikowski from Notre Dame (yes, I had to look that one up. Twice. And now my spell-checker hates me), and they not only managed to lose very little in free agency, but they held onto their biggest chip in Terrell Suggs. Unfortunately, Willis McGahee still has a lingering injury, and although Joe Flacco has a cannon for an arm, it doesn’t look like the Ravens have any intention of letting him under center this year unless they have to. With a weaker, aging defense and an inexperienced offense, they probably have another year or two before they can get the players and the favorable schedule to expect to be serious contenders in the AFC again. Prediction: 4-12
Pittsburgh has got an absolutely brutal schedule – seven playoff teams, plus two against the Browns who just missed the postseason in 2007. Ben Roethlisberger had a fantastic year last season, but the Steelers fell apart when it came to playing anyone wearing a Jacksonville uniform. They added another solid runningback in Rashard Mendenhall, but lost a handful of good players through free agency – most notably Clark Haggans and Alan Faneca. Just looking at the games they have throughout the season, I can see seven different games where they will probably be the underdog. That’s not good. I’ll give them credit for squeaking out at least one of those. Prediction: 10-6
And then there’s Cincinnati. For a very long time, the Arizona Cardinals were, single-handedly, the worst run franchise in the NFL. In the past five or six years, the Detroit Lions have come rushing up from the middle of the pack to lay a solid grip on the title. But the Bengals are making an awful strong push to contend for the crown. They can’t keep team morale out of the toilet. They can’t put a quality team on the field, since half the team out of prison long enough to learn the playbook. And just when they were turning a corner, tossing out problem children like Odell Thurman and Chris Henry, they went right back to their old demons and resigned Henry this week so they could field a legitimate starting wide receiving corps. This team is going nowhere, and they’re getting there as fast as they can. There’s a legitimate chance that with their schedule they could go 0-16. Prediction: 2-14 (They gotta sneak one or two out somehow…)
AFC WEST
2007 Standings
San Diego (11-5)
Denver (7-9)
Oakland (4-12)
Kansas City (4-12)
I wrote this in a post during last year’s Championship Round – San Diego and their fans have never won a thing. Yet everyone wearing a San Diego Chargers jersey – players, fans, staff, cabbies in the street – all act like the Chargers are the rightful heirs to the next great NFL dynasty. I’ve seen nothing to make me think they’ve got anything more than another division title and another playoff flameout in them this year. Philip Rivers and LdT are both coming off of knee injuries, and Antonio Gates hasn’t set foot on a practice field this year with problems with his foot. Their defense is still strong enough to keep them in most games, but the offense might not be there this year. The schedule is pretty soft with only four 2007 playoff teams, but the trip to London in late October to face the Saints certainly won’t help matters. Prediction: 11-5 (soft schedule oughtta help them out a lot, at least until playoff time)
The Chiefs made some big strides this offseason, locking up Jared Allen and drafting Glenn Dorsey to give them one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. Drafting Branden Albert to shore up what was already a good offensive line was another good move. Sadly, they still don’t have a quarterback worth handing the offense to, and Larry Johnson’s body might be nearing the end of the load it can carry. They’re following the Ravens’ mold of slowly building a team, then hoping to get lucky and hit the jackpot in the draft, the free agent market, and the schedule all in the same season. This isn’t that season. Prediction: 6-10
You can’t imagine how much this hurts to admit, but I’m actually pretty high on the Raiders this year. Not like “playoffs” high, but closer to “maybe running at a .500 season”. JaMarcus Russell has some experience under his belt; Darren McFadden gives them a legitimate running threat (though Justin Fargas will still carry some of the load). The defense wasn’t really all that great last year – though in fairness, since the offense was so awful, teams never felt the need to run up the score on them. But scoring 115 less points than they allowed never helped. They upgraded the offense through the draft and through free agency, shipping out malcontent Jerry Porter and importing Drew Carter… and malcontent Javon Walker. If they can bump the weekly point average from the 17+ it was last year up to 20 or more this season, they can probably make a serious push towards eight wins or more. Prediction: 8-8
And as high as I am on Oakland, I’m just as down on Denver. Jay Cutler has yet to prove to anyone that he’s a capable NFL quarterback. The runningback by committee option has revolutionized the way the entire NFL does business, but the Broncos have gotten passed by the rest of the league. They’ve got the biggest names in the league in their defensive backfield, but they were still one of only five teams in the league to allow more than 400 points last year. They’ve got a tough schedule to contend with, including the AFC East and a back to back road trip to the Eastern Time Zone. This is not their year. Prediction: 4-12
Labels: 2008, AFC, NFL, North, Preview, West
2008 NFL Preview - Post 2
Today, it’s part two in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. It’s a beautiful day – sun’s shining, birds are chirping, and Season 4 of The Wire is in the DVD Player ready to go.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the NFC North & East
NFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Green Bay (13-3)
Minnesota (8-8)
Detroit (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
One name dominates this division in 2008. And since he’s no longer in the NFC North, it’s not worth even bringing him up again until I have to. Which should be right about…
Brett Favre. There. I said it. He’s gone, and Green Bay fans (not to mention the team) will have to deal with that reality. The Packers can go one of two ways this season, they can either rally behind Aaron Rodgers and try to repeat last year’s success, or they can pack it in and use any number of excuses up to and including the loss of an icon, the new and more difficult first place schedule, etc etc etc. Look – Aaron Rodgers was a very highly touted first round quarterback a couple years ago. Brett Favre had a career year in 2007, but he was not the whole team. A serviceable QB should be able to take what is essentially the same team and lead them to about 10 or 11 wins. In the NFC North, that should be good enough for a Wild Card berth, at the very least. Prediction: 11-5
Detroit is still in a sorry state. They had another below average draft, and added absolutely nothing through free agency. But look at the list of free agents they had come off the books after the 2007 season. They shed twenty-four contracts! That’s half a team! How did they not improve through free agency? More importantly, how is Matt Millen still employed? Has anybody even seen William Clay Ford family alive in the past five years? I know it’s an old line to fall back on, but seriously, how does this guy keep his job every year? I suppose maybe Ford is falling back to the old-time sports administration, allowing a GM ten to fifteen years to fix the problems of the team. I suppose loyalty is nice, but it just doesn’t work in today’s sports world. Prediction: 5-11
The Bears had two major weaknesses this offseason – offense and defense. And that’s being generous. Somehow, they almost managed a .500 season with an aging defense and the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They addressed the need at runningback by cutting ties with Cedric Benson and adding Matt Forte through the draft. Forte has had a pretty good preseason, but he can’t carry the offense by himself. Since the Bears are pretty much flipping a coin between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton from now through the beginning of the season, they are going to need to rely on their defense – yet again – to keep the team in games. They only signed two free agents – Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd – and kept Lance Briggs in Chicago for a handful more years, but they had a defense heavy draft. If any of those players can step up quickly, the Bears might be able to return to the playoffs in a weak NFC. But more than likely, they’ll be stuck at the bottom of the North barrel again. Prediction: 4-12
Finally, Minnesota. They’ve been the trendy pick to win the NFC before, and this year is no different. But until I see something, anything, to make me believe that Tarvaris Jackson can be a competent NFL quarterback, I won’t believe they’re much better than a mediocre team. Adrian Peterson was a revelation at runningback last year until a knee injury derailed his season. But can he repeat the same numbers this year? The Vikings biggest strength is their defense. They’ve turned into the 2005 Bears and the 2000 Ravens – Quarterback questions, an above average runningback, and a dominant defense. They could be the Super Bowl Champs. They could be 8-8 again. I’m leaning towards a Wild Card berth and just above mediocre. Prediction: 9-7
NFC East
2007 Standings
Dallas (13-3)
NY Giants (10-6)
Washington (9-7)
Philadelphia (8-8)
Listen, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl. I’ve come to terms with it. I’m not happy about it, but I’ve learned to deal with it. They went on a magical run for a month last winter, they caught every break, they made every big play, and they won it all. And after saying all that… I still don’t think they have the horses to win this division. Not that they’ll need to – I think they proved that back in February. Eli Manning finally matured into the quarterback the Giants thought they were getting four years ago. Brandon Jacobs proved that you don’t need lightning for thunder to be effective (though Ahmad Bradshaw was a nice surprise). And the defensive line was dominant for most of the year. With only two major subtractions from the team (Jeremy Shockey traded to New Orleans and Michael Strahan retired), the Giants should be primed to at least return to the playoffs, if not make another run deep into the postseason. Prediction: 10-6 (I know… it’s boring but it feels about right)
Dallas is still the top dog in this division. They’ve got the offense, they’ve got the defense. They’ve got talent all over the field, and they’ve got to be pissed about how their year ended in 2007. They’ve got absolutely no reason to lose this division, or to not advance to at least the NFC Title Game. They lost only Julius Jones and Jacques Reeves, and added Zach Thomas in free agency. Not to mention adding Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins early in the draft. They should be able to put up at least 12 wins, probably more. They have five tough games total through the season, and no tougher road trips than St. Louis following Arizona in mid-October. This looks like a good year for them. Prediction: 14-2
Washington made a nice run last year, even managing a playoff berth (though I have no idea how). But without a first round draft pick, and virtually no free agent imports or losses, the only real change for the ‘Skins was bringing in Jason Taylor who may or may not still have enough in the tank to rejuvenate their defensive line. This year, that probably won’t be enough. Jason Campbell is another quarterback on a short leash trying to prove that he still belongs in this league. They don’t have the guns to stick around all year long, on offense or defense. Prediction: 7-9
Philadelphia is kind of getting caught on the short end of the stick here. They’ve still got a top 15 QB in Donovan McNabb. Brian Westbrook is one of the all around best runningbacks in the NFL. They’ve got the defense to contend every year. But there’s something holding them back. Aside from injuries, I can’t tell you what it is. I have absolutely no idea how they lost 8 games while only allowing a total of 300 points all year. I think they were nothing more than a victim of circumstance in their division; 8-8 in a division with three playoff teams is just plain unlucky. This year, they might sneak in a Wild Card berth, but most likely they’ll be on the outside looking in again. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, East, NFC, NFL, North, Preview
2007 NFL Preview - Part III
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today, the AFC South, North, and East. Click here for Part I of the Preview: NFC West & North – and click here for Part II: NFC South & East, and AFC West. Also a programming note; with the NFL season kicking off on Thursday, and with my actual day job kicking into high gear with our very own Opening Day on Tuesday, I probably won’t have a ton of time this week for my weekly NFL picks. I will probably post on Wednesday for Thursday’s Indy/New Orleans game, then come back on Friday for the weekend & Monday Night Football picks.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Tennessee Titans: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Houston Texans: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
This division has belonged to the Colts for far too long. There’s no reason that another team (*cough* Titans *cough*) couldn’t move up and take advantage of all of Indy’s losses this offseason. But the fact remains, Indy is still the class of the AFC South, and they’ve got the rings to prove it. (Note: I made a decision last week – I refuse to recognize the Colts’ Super Bowl victory last February. The guy who could have easily been the Super Bowl MVP, Dominic Rhodes, was found to be on PEDs a couple weeks later. He kinda had a big game in Miami (21 carries for 113 yards)… wonder if the steroids/supplements helped at all?)
Tennessee looks to be the team that has the best chance to build off of last season. They had an outside shot at the playoffs before the final week of the season in ’06, and with another year of experience Vince Young can only get better. As long as he avoids the Madden Curse. They could easily put it together and push the Colts. And they probably will make a good run towards a Wild Card spot. The only thing that scares me is the relative uncertainty of their backfield situation.
Houston made a couple major changes this offseason, both on the offensive side of the ball, and both likely to pay dividends almost immediately. Matt Schaub was wasting away on the Falcons’ bench behind Michael Vick; now he gets the chance to run a team for a full season. And after Domanick Davis’ lost season to injury in ’06, the running game suffered through a handful of starting running backs. The addition of Ahman Green could revitalize the Texans’ offense, though he isn’t making fans forget passing up Reggie Bush or Vince Young anytime soon…
(EDIT: This was completely rewritten after the Jags’ released Byron Leftwich this past weekend. I still can’t figure that move out…) Now that Jacksonville is counting on David Garrard to run the show… well… I’m not counting on much out of them this year. Not that I’m anti-Garrard – the guy can probably play, and can definitely move around well enough to generate some offense on his own. He’s about 70% the offensive threat that Vince Young is. The problem is the timing – the team has been working under the assumption that Byron Leftwich was their starter, and then all of a sudden, he’s not only not their starter, but he’s not even on the team. Seems a little sudden to me, is all. Maybe they’ll win 10. Maybe they’ll have the #1 overall pick in ’08. I’m leaning a little more toward the latter.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: ’06 Record (13-6), ’07 Prediction (14-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
Cincinnati Bengals: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Cleveland Browns: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Baltimore did nothing to get worse this offseason, and they got much, much better by bringing in Willis McGahee from the Buffalo Bills. If he doesn’t run for 1500 and 15+ TDs this season behind that line, I’ll be completely stunned. But unfortunately, they still haven’t addressed a nagging need at quarterback – Steve McNair isn’t getting any younger, and he was barely in the top half of NFL QBs last season in QB Rating (14th of 32 with a rating of 82.5). But the defense is still dominant – a ridiculous 12.6 points allowed per game last season. Maybe they don’t need a QB after all…
In much the same way that people forget just how good the Eagles were before their QB got injured, the Steelers actually won a Super Bowl before their QB got injured. And yes, I freely admit that I’ve heard too much about the Steelers in the past four months. But the fact remains that even with a new coaching staff, the Steelers still have a very good young QB, a good running back, some pretty decent receivers, and a defense that has consistently been hard to score on. If they don’t at least push the Ravens for the division, they should be in the Wild Card hunt by late November.
The Bengals, much like the Ravens, did nothing to get worse in the offseason. Unfortunately, they did little to get better. They are without a very big deep threat in the passing game for the first half of the season while Chris Henry serves a suspension. And their defense couldn’t have more holes in it if they played with only nine on the field. For as good a QB as Carson Palmer is, he can’t fix all the problems this team has. They just don’t seem like the team that shocked the NFL a couple years back.
The Browns did a great job to start fixing their offensive ineptitude from the past few years. Of course, Brady Quinn held out of camp like an idiot, and let’s face it – the Browns were building for the future. The future is not now. They have holes at running back, wide receiver, and just about every position on defense. They’ve got a QB locked up for awhile, and the laid the cornerstone for a very good offensive line in Joe Thomas. Now they need to work on the rest of it.
AFC East
New England: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (13-3)
Buffalo Bills: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
New York Jets: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Miami Dolphins: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Last season, the Jets shocked just about everyone not wearing a green fire helmet when they managed to win 10 games with a new head coach, no defined running game, and a questionable situation with quarterback injuries. This year, they’re not sneaking up on anybody – adding Thomas Jones was a great move, and letting him split carries with Leon Washington should keep both of them fresh throughout the year. But the fact remains – Chad Pennington has a questionable injury history, and the NY Media seems to love pushing Kellen Clemens into the starter’s role. Not to mention that they’ll be playing a 2nd place schedule. They probably overachieved just a little last year, and should come back to Earth this season.
Buffalo is my surprise team this season – their defense has been pretty solid the past few seasons, and as much as people love to rip on him, JP Losman is quietly turning into a pretty good quarterback. They had to trade away Willis McGahee for future salary cap reasons, but grabbing Marshawn Lynch in the draft this year should ensure them a solid running game for the next few seasons. Or until Lynch starts complaining about his salary…
The Dolphins fixed their most pressing need by bringing in a proven veteran QB in Trent Green, and shipping out Daunte Culpepper. Problem is, they may have been counting on Ricky Williams’ return after his yearlong exile to Canada. Since there’s pretty much no chance he ever plays in the NFL again, they are relying on Ronnie Brown (and now Jesse Chatman?) and some type of renaissance from Chris Chambers & Marty Booker. At least the defense is still fearsome, but even they are getting older.
And finally, we come to my Patriots. (EDIT: The rest of this was rewritten after this weekend’s news that Rodney Harrison will be suspended four games and Richard Seymour has been placed on the PUP list until Week 6, and today’s cutting of Reche Caldwell. All of which blow big time.) They were the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl after completely rebuilding their offense, adding three wide receivers and a running back to a team that needed nothing more than to convert a short third down to advance to (and probably win) their fourth Super Bowl in six years. Ironic then, that the loss of two crucial members of their defense could be what costs them in the end. Some in the media had said The Patriots had a legitimate shot at a 16-0 season this year, if they could get past San Diego in Week 2, and the Colts just before the bye week in November. As it is, they shouldn’t have trouble scoring points. But for at least the first four to six weeks, they might not be able to stop any high octane offenses. Like San Diego. Or Cincinnati in Week 4. Or maybe even Dallas in Week 6. But once they’re healthy (if they’re all healthy at once), there might not be another loss on the schedule.
All the way through February.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFL, North, Preview, South
2007 NFL Preview - Part I
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go! Today, the NFC West & North.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
San Francisco 49ers: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
St. Louis Rams: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals: ’06 Record (5-11), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
For the third year in a row, the Seahawks look to be largely uncontested in their run to the division title. They’ve got a healthy Shaun Alexander and a (presumably) healthy Matt Hasselbeck on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense was very solid last season, rating in the top-10 in both yards and points per game, though their rushing defense (12th in the NFC at 126.8 ypg)
This year, everyone’s “sleeper” team seems to be the 49ers. I like them; I Think that another year of maturity for Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis can only help them. But their defense (no better than 10th in the conference in any major category) still leaves a lot to be desired. There’s a chance they could be the 2001 Rams – monster offense but no defense – but there’s a better chance that they’re on the outside looking in when the postseason starts.
Speaking of the Rams… This year’s version is very reminiscent of that 2001 team, except these guys have very little chance at reaching the playoffs – let alone the Super Bowl. Their offense is ridiculously strong (how many people realized that Steven Jackson had more yards from scrimmage than LaDanian Tomlinson last season?), with Marc Bulger inking a new contract this season and #1 target Torry Holt healthy as ever. But their defense hasn’t shown any glimpses of keeping other teams off the scoreboard or slowing down an opposing running game, although their pass defense did rank 3rd in the NFC.
And finally, the class of the NFL, the team that nobody wants to play, yes, your Arizona Cardinals. There might not be a franchise in professional sports with a sorrier history than the Cardinals, and yet every season the pundits find something about this team that makes everybody think “this is the year!” Let me tell you something – this is not the year. They’ve rebuilt their offense very nicely, getting Matt Leinart through the draft last season and adding Edgerrin James through free agency what was already the best young receiving corps in the league. But that’s it. There’s no defense. There’s no offensive line. They’ve got four or five players that can make a difference on any given play, and they’re all on one side of the ball. That’s not a formula for success. That’s a formula for another last place finish and high draft pick in April.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: ’06 Record (13-3), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Green Bay Packers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Detroit Lions: ’06 Record (3-13), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
Much like their counterparts atop the NFC West, the Bears have virtually no competition for this division title. Again. In fact, their main challenge throughout the regular season should be to stay atop the overall NFC standings (or close to it) to give themselves the best shot at a first round bye. Well, the main challenge will probably be trying to remain calm every time Rex Grossman takes a five step drop. But with a healthy (if slightly less dominating) defense, and even a mediocre offense, they should be able to lock up the NFC north by about Week 12.
The Bears’ main competition, aside from themselves, looks to be the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota’s offense was, well, weak last season, not ranking in the top half of the conference in any major category, and averaging under 18 points a game. Tarvaris Jackson under center provides them with a good young QB, and a split backfield of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson behind what is shaping up to be the best offensive line in the league should give them plenty of upgraded pop from the offense. The defense was already one of the better, if underrated, units in the NFL last season (61ypg rushing allowed? Are you kidding? Too bad they allowed 238ypg passing…). All they need to do is match last season’s production, and the Vikings could be contending for a playoff berth.
Everyone seems high on the Packers this season, referencing the way they finished ’06 on a four-game winning streak as a sign of good things in ’07. They had a good defense, ranking in the upper half in all major categories except the one that matters – points allowed. Any offense with Brett Favre will always have a chance to contend, not to mention be near the top of the league in most passing categories. But the division is tough, and finishing second last season only ensured them a tougher out-of-division schedule this season. I don’t see them breaking .500 this year.
And then, there are the Lions. I might have to flip-flop on the earlier statement that the Cardinals are the sorriest franchise in all of professional sports – the Lions give them a run for that title just within the NFL. They’ve got tools on offense in Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Kevin Jones & Tatum Bell that most offensive coordinators would kill for. And yet somehow they manage to underachieve every single season. Every year I pencil them in for anywhere from 3-12 wins – this year’s no different. They could put it all together and roll the rest of the league. But more than likely, they’ll get slightly better (they can’t really get worse from a 3-13 season) and still leave Detroit fans feeling completely unfulfilled.
Labels: 2007, NFC, NFL, North, Preview, West
