2007 NFL Picks - Week I: Part II
Hey, how's it going? Everybody enjoying the season so far? Wait, what do you mean you took my advice and bet a bundle on the Saints to cover a +6.5 point line last night? Seriously? You believed me? Hmmmm... So, uh, how much do I owe ya?Well, I can't imagine too many people saw the complete dismantling of the New Orleans Saints coming, and even moreso after the score was tied 10-10 at the half. Just like the '06 AFC title game though, Indianapolis went into the locker room at halftime, made some adjustments, came back out and absolutely obliterated the team on the opposite sideline in the second half.
Let's see if I can get just a wee bit better with the other 15 picks this week. As always, the home team is in CAPS. These lines come from Bodog.com (which for some reason is now actually www.newbodog.com, but whatever), and are accurate as of 6:15pm Friday. Enjoy, and uh, save a little something in the kids' trust funds, just in case I'm not as good as I expect...
TEXANS (-3) over Chiefs: I have zero faith in the Chiefs right now. Their defense hasn't been good in years, their offense was pretty overrated before their star running back held out and skipped the preseason and they traded their #1 QB away... Plus I think the Texans have some serious sleeper potential this year.
Broncos (-3) over BILLS: Even though I think the Bills will make a run at double-digit wins, this won't be one of them. Denver, though flawed, should still be good enough to win a tough opening game on the road, and still cover the 3.
Steelers (-5) over BROWNS: I swear to God, I'm committing a homicide on a Friday during this NFL season. My employer has a policy to allow employees to "Show Your Steelers Pride" and wear Steelers shirts/jerseys to work every Friday (no jeans, t-shirts or sweatshirts though). My retinas are permanently scorched from what I saw today...
Titans (+7) over JAGUARS: Last season, I completely underestimated the Jaguars' defense in picking the Steelers to win in what I thought was the stupidest line of that week. This season, I'm getting it out of the way by taking the Titans in this game. Translation: I have no money on this pick.
RAMS (-1.5) over Panthers: Five picks, and only one underdog? Oh wait... that's right... Moving right along...
Eagles (-3) over PACKERS: No number of crazed cheeseheads in early September could make me believe that the Packers can cover that line. I've got a quasi-blind faith in Philadelphia this season, and until they do something to shake my belief (you know, like losing the opener to the Packers...) I'm riding them. Hopefully to a nice profit and a new car.
VIKINGS (-3) over Falcons: Here's the pick that's going to crush my hopes and dreams this week. Either the Falcons roll over all season long in the hopes of getting Bobby Petrino's boy-wonder Brian Brohm, or they play out of their minds and stomp all over the rest of the league. The fact that I willingly have to root for Tarvaris Jackson makes me less than comfortable, but on the plus side, there are three games I refuse to put money on this week: this one, the Titans/Jags, and...
JETS (+6.5) over Patriots: For obvious reasons. Let's be honest people - the Patriots defense is still pretty damned good. But Rodney Harrison & Richard Seymour are out of this game. Asante Samuel skipped all of camp and probably won't play his best football (if he plays at all), and the rest of the defensive stalwarts are going to pay the price. As much as I hate to admit it, the Jets were a playoff caliber team last season - this game should be close, if not an outright Jets win. I can hear Vinny giggling from two states away already as he prepares his message-board trash-talk for Monday morning...
REDSKINS (-3) over Dolphins: Since I've got the Dolphins pencilled in for 6 wins (not very good), and the Skins in for 9 (mediocre), I guess I should support the "better" of the two, right? Well that, plus the homefield advantage for Washington, and the lack of really any kind of legitimate offense from Miami.
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Bucs: This is a joke, right? No, seriously - there can't be one football fan north of the Florida/Georgia border that thinks the Bucs have any chance to keep this game within a touchdown. This is a typical "legacy" pick - everyone remembers the dominant defense the Bucs used to have, and figures that the game will never get out of hand. It will. Quickly.
CHARGERS (-6.5) over Bears: I wonder if a defending conference champion has ever opened as a bigger underdog... That would be interesting - anybody feel like doing the research? I certainly don't. When it comes down to it, the Chargers were the best team in the AFC (so by default, the NFL) last season. If I weren't such a homer-ific Patriots fan I would have liked to see a Chargers/Colts AFC Title Game. But alas, San Diego managed to give the game away and the rest is history.
COWBOYS (-6) over Giants: Two playoff teams that both look poised for a serious backslide into mediocrity. Let the Tom Coughlin farewell tour begin! Also, if you're thinking of betting on this one, you might as well tease the Cowboys, Seahawks, Chargers, and Steelers. Remember - safety first!
Ravens (+3) over BENGALS: Wow. The Ravens absolutely obliterated every team on the schedule last season, and they open the year as an underdog. This should be interesting - Cincy's defense is still basically a sieve in tiger stripes, but Baltimore's offense isn't exactly the type to capitalize on opportunities. That's the deciding factor here, as the Ravens' D should neutralize the Bengals' O.
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Lions: Apparently, the NFL wanted to get all the games with the least possible playoff implications off the schedule right away...
49ERS (-3) over Cardinals: ...How else can you explain these two games in the first weekend of the season?
Recap: TEXANS / Broncos / Steelers / Titans / RAMS / Eagles / VIKINGS / JETS / REDSKINS / SEAHAWKS / CHARGERS / COWBOYS / Ravens / RAIDERS / 49ERS
That's an awful lot of home teams, but I'm not worried - every team is uber-pumped to open the season at home. Should bode well for their chances.
As usual, I'll return Monday or Tuesday for a recap of the week's games. And pending my 9-5 schedule (which neither starts at 9 nor ends at 5), I might even live-blog the Monday night games.
Don't get your hopes up. Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
posted by Big D @ 6:05 PM
5 Comments:
Gotta love living in the 'Burgh huh? You mean to tell me that wasn't normal practice in Boston too?
I'm planning to wear a Patriots' shirt this Friday... let's see how may fights I can start.
Any other team jersey in the league would probably go somewhat unnoticed...but THAT jersey still rubs people the wrong way. I think it has something to do with the two AFC championship games a few years back.
I work for Dick's Sporting Goods corporate office (near the airport) - and we started a new "advertising campaign" with Rebook to "Wear your team out" every Friday...and it is NOT specific to the Steelers...people are welcome to wear any team jersey.
By the way, please, please, please tell me you have jersey that does NOT have Brady on the back...?
Not a jersey at all - it's a collared shirt like you'd see on the sidelines. Just a beige collared shirt with the Pats' logo on the front.
And if I ever buy another Pats jersey, it would probably have Tedy Bruschi or Mike Vrabel across the back - although I have a QB's arm, I've got a Nose Tackle's body...
That sounds completely respectable and like you might be able to go unnoticed...well, less attention that a jersey would grab.
I wouldn't argue with either of those jerseys. Mike V was a Steeler before he became a starter...
Have you tried a local Damon's for the Pats games? They usually have at least 2 other games one of their 4 big screens.
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