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Week 2 Picks

I’m shell shocked. I just had my first ever below .500 Week 1 (7-9), not to mention the first regular season losing week I’ve had since Week 14 of last season. I’ve completely lost my fastball here. Seriously guys, I’m not sure I can make it through another week.

Alright, I’ll admit it. Those first three lines were my original introduction to this post. Then I looked at the betting lines for the week. My spirits rose, the rain clouds cleared up, the sun shone brightly on my face, and I regained all feeling in my lower extremities. This week is like a Tim Wakefield knuckler that just doesn’t knuckle – you get it anywhere close to the plate, and I’m knocking it out of the park. There are five games with double-digit lines this week, and five more that are six points or higher. This should be a cakewalk.

Now all I have to do is not go 9-7 or worse…

All lines current as of 6:15PM on 9/14/06. Taken from Sportsbook.com

(Just a quick aside... if anyone reading this would like to sign up for SportsBook.com and get a fairly decent bonus, and help out a struggling writer by adding a small token to his account, please e-mail me before you sign up. If you use my referral information, we both get a bonus. Simple, efficient, a real win/win. OK, no more pimping... back to the reason you're here.)

RAVENS (-12) over Raiders: Well, might as well take the worst game of the day off the board right away. The only concern I have about this line is that the Ravens will probably have a huge lead at the half and start pulling starters out of the game. Oakland could easily put up some garbage points late and crush that line. Let’s put it this way – I’ll be much happier teasing this to RAVENS (-6) than I am leaving it at (-12).

COLTS (-13.5) over Texans: Last year, I took Houston against the spread in both games against the Colts, and split the season match-up. Both times, I also teased Indy down and teased Houston up, and won both bets. What do you think I’ll be doing this week? Indy (-7.5) and Houston (+20.5)… almost makes me drool.

BENGALS (-10.5) over Browns: Notice a theme here? Three straight double-digit lines, early in the season, and I have no problem taking all of the favorites. You know why? Because I’m convinced that Indy, Cincinnati and Baltimore are going to be three of the four AFC teams left in the second round of the playoffs, so they should all dominate, at home, over the dregs of the league.

DOLPHINS (-6.5) over Bills: OK, now we might need some type of an intervention… four straight home favorites? Well, following some sage advice, I don’t think any of the road dogs will win outright, so I can’t rely on any of them to even cover. By the way – every game so far is much, much better in a power-packed 6-point teaser, on either side.

Lions (+9) over BEARS: Hey, Roy Williams has guaranteed that they are going to win this game. Who am I to argue with one of the best college basketball coaches in history? Wait... wrong Roy Williams? No, that can’t be true. Why would the media mislead me like that? Lions could win this outright – hey, they shut down Seattle, and Chicago’s offense is nowhere near as good as the Seahawks’. But I’ll feel better about a (+15) tease, just to be safe…

VIKINGS (+2) over Panthers: This is going to depend on whether or not Steve Smith plays. If he does, the Minnesota secondary has no answer for him. If he sits again, Carolina’s ground game doesn’t look like it can carry the team, and Keyshawn hasn’t been a true #1 guy for a few years. Basically, wait for the final word on his status before you decide which way you’re going with the bet.

EAGLES (-3) over Giants: And it’s not even going to be close… provided Westbrook & McNabb can stay healthy for four quarters. If they play the whole game, Philly wins by 10+.

Buccaneers (+5.5) over FALCONS: This game hurts my head. In my main fantasy league, I have both the Atlanta D and Cadillac Williams. Atlanta’s D is missing at least two big players (Hartwell & Kerney), and John Abraham might sit with a bad groin. But Cadillac is battling back spasms. I’m lost. Right now, I’m sitting both the Defensive unit and Williams, but I’m not happy about either decision. Basically, I’ve picked this line assuming Abraham & Cadillac play. I just hate Mike Vick that much.

Saints (-2.5) over PACKERS: What does it say about the state of the Packers that they are home underdogs to the Saints? Well, it’ll say a lot more when that line jumps to (-4) or higher… Green Bay needs this win to save them from a disastrous downward spiral of a season (Their next three games are brutal). New Orleans could start the season 2-0 before heading home for the most emotional home game since the first NFL games in New York after 9/11. This is big for both teams, but the Saints are, gulp¸ better…

Rams (-3) over 49ERS: Wow, the first line I feel completely comfortable with. This is a great example of the idiocy of the first two weeks of the NFL season. Arizona was picked to be a solid team, maybe even a Wild Card contender in the NFC. So they nearly choke away a game to the wretched Niners, and suddenly San Francisco is getting respect around the betting circles? St. Louis absolutely handed Denver their lunch (the game wasn’t as close as the score), and they’re only 3-point favorites? I’d be comfortable taking the Rams as high as (-10) in this game, so jump on the (-3) if you can still get it.

Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS: Arizona has a lot to prove after the gag job they tried to pull in Week 1, at home, against the Niners. Seattle has a lot to prove after letting them be shut down by Detroit. This has all the makings of a shootout, and I like the Cardinals passing game much better than the Seahawks, at this point. I’m thinking a final of something like 37-34, and that’s a nice area for a 7-point line… By the way – the current Over/Under is 47… I think you know which side of the fence I’m on there.

Patriots (-6) over JETS: I already know this pick is going to come back to bite me in the ass, but I’m making it anyway. The Jets’ defense got a gift in Week 1 by playing Kerry Collins. Let’s see how bad a real quarterback can make them look…

CHARGERS (-12) over Titans: Ah, there it is. The return of the double-digit point spread. Look, Aaron Brooks is a better quarterback right now than Kerry Collins, and LaMont Jordan blows Travis Henry and Chris Brown out of the backfield. That should tell you all you need to know about this game.

BRONCOS (-11) over Chiefs: It’s almost unfair to make the Chiefs even show up for this one, but that’s why they play the games. Look for Larry Johnson to touch the ball 40 times, either on runs or passes. Look for Damon Huard to have ice covering every square inch of his body after the Broncos pummel him into the ground many, many times. Look for the scoreboard to read something like “Denver 38, Kansas City 13” when the clock hits triple zeroes.

Redskins (+6) over COWBOYS: Sure, Terrell Owens will go nuts all over Champ Bailey. Maybe he’ll even run to the Star at midfield again, this time to a standing ovation. But when it comes down to it, Drew Bledsoe is on his last legs as a starting quarterback in this league, and the Redskins’ defense might just be the one that knocks him out of the job for good. Either way, it’s going to be a crappy game to watch Sunday Night.

Steelers (-2) over JAGUARS: I saw all I needed to see from the Steelers when they were able to dismantle a highly-touted Dolphins team without their starting quarterback in black and gold. Now that he’s back, I’d be surprised if they didn’t win this game by 10 or more.

RECAP: RAVENS / COLTS / BENGALS / DOLPHINS / Lions / VIKINGS / EAGLES / Buccaneers / Saints / Rams / Cardinals / Patriots / CHARGERS / BRONCOS / Redskins / Steelers

Also, as a public service, here are the best bets for the week:

Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bengals & Dolphins all teased down by 6 points.

Raiders, Texans, Browns & Bills all teased up by six points.

Rams, Steelers, Patriots and Eagles are all locks (injuries not withstanding).

Some sort of parlay involving all five of the double-digit favorites could be a HUGE payout, but there’s a real risk of losing the lines in garbage time.

That’s it and that’s all. Back Monday/Tuesday with a Week 2 recap.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 7:49 PM