Week 1 Picks
Hey everybody. Long time, no talk. This might be the most I've posted over any four day stretch since the 2004 MLB Playoffs. At least I had a reason to be excited then.
And I have a reason to be excited now. I've been looking forward to this day for almost seven months, since the Steelers walked away with the Super Bowl, high-fiving the referees on their way out the tunnel. The first lines for the NFL season are posted, and I'm ready to go...
(For the record, I'm 17-14-1 [9-7 in 2005 and 8-7-1 in 2004] the last two seasons on Week 1 picks. Not exactly dominant, but it is a winning record.)
(All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 10PM 9/5/06)
Dolphins (Pk) over STEELERS: I'm almost certain that I mentioned, at least once over the past three seasons of picking games on here, that if I EVER support a team starting Charlie Batch, I might as well just hang up my keyboard. Bookies nationwide are probably not even offering this game anymore - the money line is off at Sportsbook, and the line dropped down to this pick-'em in the last 48 hours. How long until the Dolphins become a road favorite, Week 1, while visiting the defending Super Bowl Champs?
RAMS (+4) over Broncos: I don't know if Champ Bailey has recovered yet from the crushing hit he took in the Divisional Playoff game from Ben Watson. If he hasn't, it's going to be awful hard to cover Torry Holt. In all seriousness, I think the Rams have the offense to compete with some pretty good teams. Plus, they made a couple nice pickups on the defensive side of the ball, and with the Broncos perennial runningback by committee, I don't trust them. Yet.
TITANS (-2.5) over Jets: There should be no point in this season when you see a negative number next to "Jets". That should tell you all you need to know right there. As bad as Tennessee figures to be, the Jets are playing for the 2007 #1 selection right out of the chute. Tennessee by 10.
PATRIOTS (-9) over Buffalo: Man, I hate giving up that many points in Week 1. This might be the toughest game of the week for me to pick. I know the Pats are going to be good, and I know the Bills are going to be bad. But Buffalo's defense, especially the secondary, is pretty solid. And with New England's depleted receiving corps, this could be a close game. Let's put it this way - I'm not betting on this one.
Ravens (+3) over BUCCANEERS: I really like Baltimore this season. Plus, it's only Week 1, so Steve McNair should still be healthy. He didn't break anything in training camp that I'm not aware of, right? Look for Baltimore to have a tough time running the ball, and Tampa to have a tough time throwing it. That leads me to believe this is going to be a close game.
Bengals (+2.5) over CHIEFS: Are you kidding me? The Bengals got absolutely thrashed by Larry Johnson last season, and they've had seven months to prepare a way to stop him. If he runs for more than 110, I'll be very surprised. Plus, KC's defense is still KC's defense - porous and eminently beatable. Carson Palmer goes off, and Cincy's Johnson has the better day. Wow... I may have phrased that poorly.
Seahawks (-6.5) over LIONS: As much as I like Detroit this season (and really, every season), they just don't have the guns to hang with the Seahawks. It's only Week 1 - Seattle still hasn't clinched the division, so they have a reason to compete in this one.
PANTHERS (-5) over Falcons: The Steve Smith hammy saga worries me, and I think this line will drop to 3.5 before kickoff. The Falcons' is greatly improved, and if Smith isn't 100%, they will be able to shut him, and the rest of the Panthers, down completely. If Smith is ready to go, he creates matchup problems for both himself and Keyshawn Johnson on the other end of the field. One of them could have a big day.
Eagles (-5.5) over TEXANS: An NFC team, a road favorite, over an AFC team, in Week 1? Damn, Houston must be really bad. In all fairness, I think I may have been a little harsh on the Eagles in my Predictions yesterday. I mean, they were a Super Bowl team two years ago, then had to deal with T.O. and a slew of crippling injuries. I might just jump on the Eagles bandwagon this year. Hopefully I don't tip it over...
BROWNS (-3) over Saints: Cleveland actually has a pretty good run defense, so the best weapons New Orleans has to compete with should be at least slowed, if not stopped completely. However, Drew Brees and Joe Horn can rip it up through the air against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Look for Horn to go big - I'm thinking 170 and 2 TDs. But it won't be enough, as Cleveland should be able to score at will against the worst NFL defense I've ever seen take the field in a non-exhibition game.
Cowboys (+2.5) over JAGUARS: The Jags just don't scare me that much this season, especially against teams with above average defenses. Dallas can slam the line to stop the run, and has a very good defensive secondary to clamp down on the Jags' receivers. Not to mention, Dallas' offense isn't exactly a creampuff anymore.
Bears (-3.5) over PACKERS: Well, this is just a no-brainer...
CARDINALS (-7.5) over 49ers: ...And so is this, even if it involves the Cardinals. Let's see how many times Arizona can screw me over this season.
GIANTS (+3.5) over Colts: I can't wait until this game gets down to the wire, and we get to watch both Manning brothers choke simultaneously. It's going to be unbelieveable. Not to mention, if it's a close game and Adam Vinateri (and his broken plant foot) are called on to win or tie the game in the swirling Giants Stadium winds, I mean, am I allowed to root against him yet? Did the grace period expire when the ink dried on his Indy contract?
Vikings (+4.5) over REDSKINS: Jesus, is that another Road Dog that I'm picking to win. This is downright scary. Wel, like I said yesterday, I don't like the Redskins at all this year. Their defense got weaker, their offense has self destructed, and they're still relying on Mark Brunell to get them through 16 games. At least the Vikings' washed-up quarterback has a Super Bowl Ring to hold on to. Although, so does Trent Dilfer...
Chargers (-3) over RAIDERS: That's it. I give up. There are five road favorites in the opening week of the season, and it will probably be six before tonight's game kicks off. Either this is going to be the worst NFL season in gambling history, or somebody is going to make a LOT of money. As for this game... um... the Raiders are terrible. Let's just leave it at that.
RECAP: Dolphins / RAMS / TITANS / PATRIOTS / Ravens / Bengals / Seahawks / PANTHERS / Eagles / BROWNS / Cowboys / Bears / CARDINALS / GIANTS / Vikings / Chargers
Seven home teams, nine road teams. Nine favorites, six underdogs, and a pick-'em. Boy, if this doesn't scream "Another mediocre 9-7 Week 1 for D", nothing does...
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 11:09 AM
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