2006 NFL Predictions
OK guys, I'm not even going to try to hide it. I've been a complete waste of space for the last two weeks. I got slammed at work for awhile, then got stuck trying to bring together a brand new fantasy league while working around seven other people's schedules, and blah blah blah. In preparation for this post, I did my research, I worked my tables, I even wrote, deleted, and then rewrote my thoughts on just about every NFL team. And do you know what I did then?
I went drinking. Heavily. On the Jersey Shore. For five days. Yikes.
After getting back from Labor Day weekend, I realized two things. First, no one wants to read 8,000 words about my pre-season NFL predictions, regardless of if they are spot-on accurate or completely out in left field. Second, considering that the season starts tomorrow, I don't exactly have enough time to post today's Preview & Predictions and still get my weekly picks posted in time.
So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to give you a very quick breakdown of every division. One paragraph each, maybe two. I'm not breaking down every team, because it would take way too much time out of your day.
Then I'm going to post my picks for this week's games. And during the weeks to come, I'm going to try and post twice a week - once with picks, once with weekly thoughts and random predictions about the NFL season (oh, and baseball too. I guess that's still going on...).
So, without further ado or explanation, here are my predictions for the 2006 NFL season...
NFC EAST
NY Giants (11-5)
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) *
Washington Redskins (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)
Welcome to the best division in the NFC, even if none of these teams has a chance in hell of making it to the Super Bowl. The Giants return much of the team that won the division in 2005, and it should be enough to hold off a greatly improved Cowboys squad. Dallas has the defense in place to wreak havoc on opposing teams, but if T.O. is a distraction at all (and let's face it - the first time Drew Bledsoe misses a wide open T.O. streaking on a slant, he'll become a major distraction...) Dallas will slide. Washington has looked abysmal this pre-season, and while I know that exhibition games mean absolutely nothing, their offense just scares the bejezus out of me. As for Philly, well, they did very little to improve (although Donte Stallworth is going to be a monster now that he has a legit QB throwing to his instead of Aaron Brooks). The Eagles will improve, but after last season, it would be hard to regress.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (11-5)
Detroit Lions (9-7)
Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
Green Bay Packers (6-10)
Tough way for Brett Favre to go out. I mean, if the most talented Packers team of the last 15 years can't manage a .500 record, what's the point in him coming back in '07? As for the rest of the division, the Bears really have no challengers. Granted, they have no offense either, but that defense should keep them 6-0 within the division, and if they can scrape together four or five more wins during the year, it'll be enough to get them back into the postseason. Detroit has done a major overhaul this offseason, and it will pay immediate dividends. Marinelli is a good coach, and Mike Martz should have a field day with the Lions' receivers and a serviceable quarterback (whether it's Jon Kitna or Josh McCown - either way, it's not Joey Harrington). And Minnesota... they are the height of mediocrity. They have a good offensive line, but no proven RB to block for. Brad Johnson was a Super Bowl winning quarterback - I know. But that was five years ago, and he was mediocre then. In this division, without a '99 Rams type of prolific offense, no one is beating the Bears.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Atlanta Falcons (10-6) *
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
New Orleans Saints (4-12)
Sorry to say it, considering all that the city has had to deal with, but New Orleans just isn't competing with anyone this season. Their offense got a major boost with Drew Brees and Reggie Bush. Unfortunately, the defense seems to have gotten worse, if that's even possible. Atlanta did the most improving, adding a couple of defensive playmakers and some help for Mike Vick on offense, and it should be enough to propel them into the postseason. Tampa fields a great defense (what's new?), but I'm not sold on Chris Simms leading that team to double-digit wins this season. If they catch a few breaks, they might sneak into the playoffs. And the Panthers, well as you'll see below, I think they're the team to beat this year.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
St. Louis Rams (8-8)
Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
San Francisco 49ers (5-11)
Over/Under on week that Seattle clinches this division: Week 6. The NFC West couldn't be more lopsided if it tried. The Niners are still a good four years away. The Cardinals improved, but still can't compete with the big boys. The Rams actually field a pretty good team, but they're not beating the Seahawks anytime soon (though they might have the guns to win five or six games outside the division and back their way into the postseason). So Seattle wins this division almost by default. Essentially, after about Week 5, they'll be playing for home-field advantage.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos (13-3)
San Diego Chargers (11-5) *
Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
Oakland Raiders (6-10)
One more reason not to take Larry Johnson #1 overall in your fantasy draft - with the defense he has surrounding him, the Chiefs are going to be playing from behind a lot, so he's probably going to get a reduced number of carries. Oakland is in bad shape in every way possible - their quarterback stinks. Their running game is ugly. Their defense looks like a fishnet. At least they have the most entertaining owner and fans in the league. San Diego is either going to build off of last season's "tough luck" ending or completely crumble with Philip Rivers under center. I'm predicting that they grow and get much better, but an 8-8 finish is not out of the question. So, much like the NFC, the Western Division is almost Denver's to win by default. They still have a good offense and a high octane defense. They added Javon Walker and subtracted Ashley Lelie, and they finally have an insurance policy when Jake Plummer inevitably implodes.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Houston Texans (6-10)
Ho hum. Another division title for the Colts. Another 4000 yards and 30 TDs for Peyton Manning. Blah blah blah... The only excitement in this division is to try and predict on which week the fans in Houston riot for passing on Reggie Bush (I still believe that it was the right decision, but that they should have traded the pick rather than take anybody at #1 overall). I'm guessing Week 4, just about the time Bush runs for 140 and three TDs in New Orleans, while Mario Williams has another 2 tackle, 0 sack performance. Tennessee has made some improvements this season, but they're still a year or two away from being serious contenders to the Colts. And while the Jaguars are a very solid team (aside from the running game), they don't have the horses to run with Indy. That leaves the Colts as de-facto winners, and leaves us with yet another opportunity to bet against Peyton Manning in the playoffs. Sometimes, it's the simple pleasures in life...
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Cleveland Browns (6-10)
Until I watched Carson Palmer play in the preseason, I had the Ravens winning this division. Just like I have predicted for the past two seasons. Eventually, I'm going to pick them to finish dead last, and they'll shock everyone. But I really like Baltimore this season - adding a competent QB to a team with a good running game and outstanding defense should at least put them above .500, and might push them into the postseason. The Bengals still have a grip on this division, assuming no players commit any felonies during the year (sadly, that's not intended as a joke). Pittsburgh, well, something about this season just strikes me the wrong way. I think they got fairly lucky last season, fielding a great defense and a mediocre offense and catching a few breaks as the season moved along, and I don't think it will happen again. And the Browns... well, they're getting better. They're getting healthy (just not at the Center position), and in a couple seasons, with any semblance of a defensive upgrade, they'll be in the mix in the toughest division in football.
AFC EAST
New England Patriots (13-3)
Miami Dolphins (11-5) *
Buffalo Bills (5-11)
New York Jets (3-13)
Another year, another uncontested division title for the Patriots. Finally, the schedule makers did them a favor, giving them two creampuffs to open the year, and five guaranteed wins in their last eight games (and the other three are still games they should win). There's a decent chance that New England could end the year on at least an eight-game winning streak, and if they can beat Indy in Foxboro, that could jump to an 11-game run after the bye. Miami made the most improvements of any team in the AFC this year, simply by adding Daunte Culpepper. He's probably worth two or three wins by himself as an upgrade over Gus Frerotte. Their defense is still solid, and they should be able to grab a Wild Card spot. The Bills, well, they've got the league's oldest owner and oldest GM, and it showed this offseason. Willis McGahee better go off for about 2100 yards and 35 TDs, because the rest of the offense isn't going to do much. And the J-E-T-S... sorry guys. You need another two or three years to get back to those 12-4 seasons, when the season didn't end after Week 1. Passing on a runningback in the draft when Curtis Martin was clearly breaking down last year might haunt them for a while, or at least until New York drafts Adrian Peterson next April.
PLAYOFFS
AFC:
Wild Card Round: New England over San Diego, Cincinnati over Miami
Divisional Round: New England over Denver, Cincinnati over Indianapolis
Conference Championship: New England over Cincinnati
NFC:
Wild Card Round: NY Giants over Falcons, Dallas over Chicago
Divisional Round: Seattle over Dallas, Carolina over NY Giants
Conference Championship: Carolina over Seattle
Super Bowl: New England over Carolina (again), 28-17
Finally, a Patriots' Super Bowl win by more than 3 points. Maybe this will legitimize them for all the New England Haters out there.
Or maybe not having a proven big-game kicker will doom them to an 8-8 season. Seriously people, it's not even Week 1 yet. If I get 30% of these records right, I'll be stunned.
Back tomorrow with picks for this week's games.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 10:39 AM
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