2007 NFL Picks - Week Four
Giddy-up! It’s Week 4 of the NFL season, so there’s a few things we know (The facts), a few things we’re pretty certain of (The theories), and some things we have no idea how to comprehend (The Bears). Generally, by about Week four I’ve got my two or three teams that I won’t bet against under any circumstance, a couple teams that I won’t bet with under any circumstance, and a pretty good idea about the other 25 or so teams in the league.
I finished last week at 7-6-3, with only the Colts to blame for not getting my overall record back to .500. Seriously – how do you allow that late score to cut the gap to six points on a 6.5-point line?
Anyway, I’m 21-22-5 heading into the quarter mark of the 2007 NFL season. With any luck (which is a phrase that should never, under any circumstances, be used in sports gambling), I can make a four or five week run and put myself 20-games over by the halfway point.
That said, let’s jump right into the picks. As always, home teams in CAPS, and all lines accurate as of 9pm from Bodoglife.com.
Raiders (+4) over DOLPHINS: As much as it hurts me to say this, I actually like this Raiders team. They’ve been close in both of their losses – narrowly missing a huge 4th quarter comeback against the Lions, and then taking the Broncos to overtime. Last week’s win, though against a lousy opponent, proves that they can hold onto a lead when needed. By the way – this game counts as one of my three favorite teaser lines for the week.
Texans (-3) over FALCONS: The NFC is 6-8 against the AFC this season. So it just seems to make sense that the worst team in the NFC would have a tough time hanging with a surprisingly good AFC team, even if that team is without their #1 running back and wide receiver. If we’ve learned one thing in the past couple years, it’s that while fantasy teams are doomed when their #1 back or receiver is lost for extended time, in real life, it’s not such a big deal.
Ravens (-4) over BROWNS: There’s two ways to look at the “revenge” factors in this game. Either Jamal Lewis tees off on his former team and makes them wish they hadn’t let him go in favor of a younger, better running back in Willis McGahee, or the Ravens’ D tees off on Lewis (and by proxy, the entire Cleveland offense), making him wish he’d signed with an opponent outside of the division. Even though I believe the Ravens are far more overrated than anyone thought possible, I think they’ll be adequately amped up for this game.
Bears (-3) over LIONS: The Bears’ strength the past few seasons has been their defense, but right now everyone on that side of the ball is banged up. They’ll most likely be without a handful of key defensive starters, and just to add an additional degree of difficulty, they’ve switched starting quarterbacks. Seems like a natural to take them as a road favorite, right? Well actually, yes. Not only that, but I’m picking up Brian Griese as a 1-week waiver wire wonder and hoping like hell that the Lions’ pass defense (currently dead last in the NFC and second to last in the NFL) doesn’t suddenly wake up. In what figures to be a shootout, I’m taking the team with the moderately better defense to make at least one big stop.
Packers (-3) over VIKINGS: So many road favorites this week… Here’s the thing – everyone will tell you that Brett Favre has a lousy history against the Vikings, and even moreso in the Metrodome. And they’d be right. But he’s been fairly good over the past three or four seasons against the Vikings, and with the added incentive of breaking the all-time touchdowns record against the team that has given him the most problems, I don’t see any reason to thin the Pack doesn’t have a good enough game to cover three points.
COWBOYS (-13.5) over Rams: I can’t believe I’m voluntarily laying two scores to the Rams, of all teams. But when your starting running back is out (not such a big deal), and your starting QB is playing with two broken ribs, against the best team in the conference and a consensus top-3 team in the NFL… things aren’t looking so good. Also, this is Teaser game #2… Cowboys -7.5 looks a lot better than -13.5
Jets (-3.5) over BILLS: There are a few theories floating around about this game. Maybe the Jets are better than we thought, but just had a horrific first two weeks to the season. Maybe the Bills are better off without J.P. Losman, or more specifically, with an unknown QB under center. Here’s the theory I subscribe to – no Losman, no Pozluzny, and possibly no McGee returning kicks… no way the Bills keep this game close.
Bucs (+3) over PANTHERS: I don’t trust David Carr. Not that I’ve got blind faith in Jeff Garcia, but David Carr has cost me more money over the past five years than I care to think about. Plus, it’s surprising to say, but is it possible that the Bucs’ defense is actually good again? I mean all they’ve beaten is the Rams & Saints – two teams whose offenses look completely inept right now, but they did hold both teams to practically nothing on offense, plus they played the Seahawks tight in Week One. I might be willing to concede that right now, the Bucs are the best team in the NFC South.
Seahawks (-2.5) over 49ERS: You watch –
Steelers (-6.5) over CARDINALS: I know all about the “former coaches against their old teams” angle. I also know just how dominant the Steelers have looked for the past three weeks. Do you realize they haven’t given up 30 total points yet (26), but they’ve scored the third most in the league (97, behind only New England and
Chiefs (+12) over CHARGERS: This is a joke, right? I don’t care how badly people want to believe that this is the same
COLTS (-10) over Broncos: I don’t think I’ve correctly picked a Colts game yet this season, so why start now? Indy usually decimates
Eagles (-3) over GIANTS: Note to fantasy football owners everywhere – if you have Donovan McNabb on your team, this might be a good week to start him. I’m just saying, is all. I have friends who are die-hard Giants’ fans, and even they are picking up QBs and Wide Receivers on a weekly basis to start against the G-Men. If this game turns in to a shootout, I’ve got just a hair more confidence in the QB with 4 NFC Title Game appearances and a trip to the Super Bowl under his belt over the one whose last name ends in “-anning”.
Patriots (-7.5) over BENGALS: I haven’t picked the Pats to cover a spread yet this season. I’ve learned my lesson. Until they win a game by less than 20, I’ll be more than happy to lay the points. And for the record, if you’re timid with your bets (as I’ve become of late), this is Teaser Game #5.
RECAP: Raiders / Texans / Ravens / Bears / Packers / COWBOYS / Jets / Bucs / Seahawks / Steelers / Chiefs / COLTS / Eagles / Patriots
Holy crap – only two home teams? This week is going to be awful interesting…
Lata.
Labels: : 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
posted by Big D @ 9:38 PM
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