2007 NFL Picks - Week Five
Real quickly, before the picks, a review of the AL preview I posted back in April. As I wrote in the comments of that post, I'll usually settle for getting the records corerct within 5 games. I think I nailed that pretty well on half the league. In some cases, I was pretty damned close (if not exactly right). In other cases (ahem... the White Sox to win the AL Central with 95 wins... whoops!) I wasn't quite as accurate. Also, thanks to Brian for compiling a definitive ranking of previews from our Blogger's Fantasy Baseball League. I didn't finish first, but I'm still pretty proud of how close I was – two teams exact, one team off by one game, three more off by only two….
Red Sox Predicted: 96-66 Actual finish: 96-66
Angels Predicted: 94-68 Actual finish: 94-68
Yankees Predicted: 93-69 Actual finish: 94-68
Tigers Predicted: 90-72 Actual finish: 88-64
Royals Predicted: 71-91 Actual finish: 69-93
D-Rays Predicted: 68-94 Actual finish: 66-96
We won't discuss the White Sox (missed by 23 games and five places in the division standings), A's (24), Twins (22), Mariners (12), Rangers (9) or Indians (only off by 8, but I had them 4th in the Central). So next year when you're considering an Over/Under bet on season wins (as I was when I was in Vegas in January), maybe take a look over here and see if it helps your decision. Or hurts. Either way, really.
Onto the Week Five picks. Had some better results in Week Four, enough to push me over .500 (woo hoo!), albeit barely. 8-6 last week to move to 29-28-5 for the season. hey, a winning week is a winning week, even if the Steelers cost me a lot of money (not necessarily on the bet, but on the projected winnings - 6 team parlay paying about 48-1 that only missed by the Steelers winning by a TD or more)
As always, home teams in CAPS, and the lines are from Bodog.com (via ESPN.com's Daily Line) and accurate as of about 10:30 this morning.
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS: Well, since I’m convinced that the Rams are currently the worst team in the NFL, and considering that they are voluntarily starting Gus Frerotte this week, this seems like the logical pick. Even if it means that I have to trust the Cardinals. Here’s my dilemma – I have Matt Leinart in my “money” fantasy league.
PATRIOTS (-17) over Browns: I still hate giving up more than 2 TD’s in any game, but with this incarnation of the Patriots, I’m not nearly as worried about it. Of course, the whole “former coordinator against his old team” might apply here as well – we saw how well that worked out for the Steelers last week. Gonna be nice having Rodney Harrison back on the field as well – look for him to take someone’s head off early, just to “get back in the rhythm”.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Panthers: I hate this pick. I have no faith in either team to win this game. Basically, I’m picking the home team coming off a bye over the road team with the backup starting QB, even if that backup QB was once-upon-a-time the #1 overall pick in the draft.
GIANTS (-4) over Jets: I could make a lame joke about “picking the ‘home’ team”, but the truth is that I’ve got no idea what to make of the Jets thus far into the season. Maybe it’s a massive karmic boomerang from Mangini’s stoolie episode a month ago. Maybe they just overachieved last season and are reverting to form this week. Fact remains, the Jets have 1 win (over winless
Seahawks (+6.5) over STEELERS: Just because I’m still pissed at
Lions (+3.5) over REDSKINS: For the record, I’m starting Jason Campbell over Leinart. I’m sure you were all were waiting with baited breath for that information. The Lions look a lot like last year’s Saints – no one will take them seriously until about Week 14, when they’re sitting at around 9-3 and making plans for a home playoff game. Thanksgiving; Lions against the Packers for the lead in the division… who would’ve believed that during the offseason?
TEXANS (-6) over Dolphins: Boy the Dolphins got bad in a hurry. Not that they were Super Bowl contenders when the season started, but I don’t think anyone thought they’d be this bad. Guess the best option now is to play for the draft and hope to get a big-time piece to rebuild around for ’08. Problem is, should it be a QB, WR, or someone under the age of 30 to start taking over on defense?
TITANS (-8.5) over Falcons: Yes,
CHIEFS (+2) over Jaguars: I can’t believe I’m making this pick. Three weeks ago, I was convinced that the Chiefs were the worst team in the league, and that the Jaguars were only slightly overrated. Now? I’m willing to concede that if the Chiefs’ offense can produce anything, the defense might be better than previously thought. Plus, I’ve got zero faith in the Jags’ ability to either move the ball on offense or stop the run on defense.
Bucs (+10) over COLTS: Too bad Cadillac is out for the year – this would be one of those renaissance weeks for him, and just good enough to convince fantasy owners that they didn’t waste a pick. The Bucs’ defense is almost back to their dominant days, and the offense is moving the ball effectively. What better team to pick apart the Colts’ “
BRONCOS (-1) over Chargers: How many more weeks before the Chargers’ brass starts calling Marty Schottenheimer, trying to pitch the “we were just kidding about the whole ‘you’re fired’ thing”? Five? Three?
Ravens (-3.5) over 49ERS: Ladies and Gentlemen, your “All-Overrated Game” for 2007! Both teams had high expectations. Both teams look to have lost their starting QB for awhile. Both teams currently stink. At least I only picked one of them to win their division, while I had the other just slightly above .500
PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears: Lambeau Field, on the national Sunday Night Football game. Packers 4-0, Bears 1-3 (and crumbling fast). Sorry, I’m taking the Pack.
Cowboys (-11) over BILLS: Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders just said on a radio interview that this Dallas team is the 4th best team on their DVOA rankings since they began tracking teams in 1996. (For the record, the ’07 Patriots are #1 and the ’07 Colts are #12). Basically, we’re seeing something pretty damned impressive in terms of domination by a handful of teams. The only thing that scares the hell out of me here is the “trap game” factor –
RECAP: Cardinals / PATRIOTS / SAINTS / GIANTS / Seahawks / Lions / TEXANS / TITANS / CHIEFS/ Bucs / BRONCOS / Ravens / PACKERS / Cowboys
See you again next week folks.
Lata.
Labels: Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks, Tags: 2007
posted by Big D @ 1:44 PM
1 Comments:
well, thank god for the giants....
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