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2007 MLB Preview - American League East

American League East

Boston Red Sox: One year after they completely self-destructed in a mid-summer homestand against the Yankees, the Red Sox have completed the metamorphosis from “Moneyball team with slightly more assets” into “World Dominating Tyrannical Baseball Force”.

Their projected payroll in ’07 is $160M. That’s before any bonus clauses or mid-season acquisitions are factored in. They managed to give out $170M in contracts this offseason, not to mention the $51.1M they spent just for the right to give Daisuke Matsusaka another $52M. Or the money they will eventually (if they ever come to their senses) pay to Curt Schilling for his one or two year extension.

So, from a baseball perspective, what does it all mean? Well, for starters, it means they’ve got one of the most fearsome lineups in all of baseball, and they have the single best rotation in the American League, if not the entire major leagues. The only weak spot in their 1-9 is towards the bottom of the order, where Dustin Pedroia & Coco Crisp could easily slip into “automatic out” status as the season wears on. But 1-7, the lineup is nasty: Lugo, Youkilis, Ortiz, Manny, Drew, Lowell, Varitek, Crisp, Pedroia. Sure, there isn’t a whole lot of opportunity to play small ball with that order (I don’t see anyone from the 2-hole down to the 8 that will be stealing too many bases), but when you’ve got potentially six 20-homer guys, who needs to manufacture runs?

(EDIT: After writing this preview, Papelbon was moved back into the closer’s role. The rest of this team preview has been re-written).

The pitching was already solid going in to Spring Training, with potentially four 15-game winners in the rotation. The biggest question was at closer, where the Sox had initially planned to go with a pu-pu platter of Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Brendan Donnelly and Julian Tavarez in the 9^th inning. Luckily, someone finally woke up and decided to put Jonathon Papelbon back into the closer’s role, moving Kyle Snyder, Tavarez & Pineiro into the 5^th starter/spot starter slot. It’s a good move, and one that will pay dividends in more ways than one.

The rotation of Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett and Wakefield should be able to hold it’s own. Matt Clement, though still months away from a healthy return, might be effective as a 5^th starter (because we all know he was pretty useless as a #2 or #3). The biggest hole on the mound was filled by Papelbon’s move to the bullpen. Honestly, aside from injuries slowing them down, I don’t see any way this team doesn’t win 90+.

But will it be enough?

Biggest subplot this season?

It’s Boston – everything’s a “subplot”. Schilling’s contract, Manny’s eBay adventures, Drew’s limp-wristed attempts to be a professional athlete, Papelbon’s shoulder, Dice-K’s transition to American baseball… you name it, it will be blown out of proportion by the media & fans.

Best player you should start looking out for?

The Red Sox have, for the most part, moved away from the original stated goal of cultivating young players through the farm system to run a true Moneyball style of baseball team. Instead, they cultivate young players to use as trade bait. But look out for David Murphy & Jacoby Ellsbury when/if they make an appearance this year. And if Coco Crisp can’t produce in this lineup, Ellsbury might be in Fenway sooner than anyone thinks.

Biggest unseen roadblock?

Sadly, the biggest roadblock could be themselves. The thing that made the 2004 team so good was their chemistry as well as their talent. Just about every person in the clubhouse got along with one another and the team rode their friendships all the way to the World Series. With this current version of the team, there are so many egos and preferential treatment situations that it could quickly devolve into a “25 guys, 25 cabs” situation. Again.

New York Yankees: There is no team with a more deadly batting order than this incarnation of the New York Yankees. Top to bottom, there isn’t an easy out in the lineup. And, even more amazing, they will at least have eight patient hitters in the order every night. Not too many starters are going to last past the 6^th inning against this team.

Look at how it shakes out right now: Jeter/Damon/Abreu/A-Rod/Giambi/Matsui/Cano/Posada, and whoever gets plugged in at first base nightly – most likely Doug Mientkiewicz.

How many other teams could trade away a first ballot Hall-of-Famer in Randy Johnson, and another top tier player (and borderline Hall-of-Famer) in Gary Sheffield and still be penciled in for at least 90-wins?

The biggest question for this team will be in the rotation. Chien-Ming Wang should be the unquestioned staff ace, but more than likely the Opening Day role will fall to Mike Mussina, who just signed a 2-year, $23M extension. The Yanks brought back old friend Andy Petitte with a $16M one-year contract, but otherwise had a surprisingly quiet hot-stove signing season. Or, at least as quiet as it can be when you have a $200M+ payroll…

Biggest subplot this season?

When will Carl Pavano actually see a pitcher’s mound? Since signing his 4yr/$32M conract two seasons ago, Pavano has pitched in only 17 Major League games, and none in the last 21 months. Not exactly earning that signing bonus. Some sources say he’ll be the Opening Day starter… I have no idea how that’s possible, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Best player you should start looking out for?

Much like Boston, the Yankees don’t have too many “unheralded” young studs coming out of the farm system anymore. But among the lesser known players on their roster, new Japanese import Kei Igawa seems to have the most “unknown upside”. He could either end up as a great addition to the pitching staff, or as a $20M reactionary signing after the Red Soc got Matsuzaka

Biggest unseen roadblock?

Well, let’s see. Age. Injuries. A-Rod’s fragile psyche. Giambi’s, uh, “resurgence”. No one to step into the rotation when Mussina, Pavano & Petitte inevitably break down. Should I go on?

Toronto Blue Jays: Absolutely, the single biggest dark horse in the American League. Last season, they leapt over the Red Sox to grab second place in the division, 6 games over .500, but still 10 games behind the Yankees.

This year, deciding they had already built a solid pitching staff if everyone is healthy, the Jays decided to once again upgrade their offense by adding Frank Thomas with a 2yr/$18M contract. The Big Hurt joins a lineup that already featured Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus & Lyle Overbay, not to mention some decent OBP guys at the top of the lineup in Alex Rios and Aaron Hill (both with a .349 OBP last season).

The rotation, sporting another perennial Cy Young favorite in Roy Halladay, and the oft-injured but potential ace in the making AJ Burnett, added three role players in Tomo Ohka, John Thompson, and Victor Zambrano (he of the fantastic Zambrano for Scott Kazmir, straight up trade…), all of them to short money deals. And of course, they have one of the three best closers in the league waiting in the bullpen for the 9^th in BJ Ryan.

All around, they have one of the most solid team in the majors. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck in the same division with two teams who have no qualms about pushing all their chips into the pot every season.

Biggest subplot this season?

The Blue Jays aren’t the Yankees, and they aren’t the Red Sox. What they are is a well run, very well coached group of guys who needs to remember that they are built to win in the long term, and they need to take advantage of other teams’ mistakes. If they can steal 3-5 games this year that they aren’t supposed to win, they can be right in the division race.

Best player you should start looking out for?

Aaron Hill & Alex Rios are both guys who can fly under the radar, but will also both likely score 100 runs in that lineup. And then of course, there’s Lyle Overbay, another player in the Brandon Inge mold – he’s never going to blow you away with his numbers, but you can see a steady uptick in his production every season over the last three.

Biggest unseen roadblock?

AJ Burnett. The Jays are relying on him to become at least the #2 starter they’ve been looking for behind Doc Halladay. Unfortunately, he was sidelined by shoulder troubles last season, and has made only 76 starts over the past four years, an average of 19 per season. The Jays need a full year out of him, whether good or bad, if they hope to be competitive all year.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles went on something of a spending spree this offseason, though nothing like a few years back when they broke the bank for Miguel Tejada & Javy Lopez. This year, they doled out a little over $80M in guaranteed contracts to 12 players, including resigning three of their own free agents.

Unfortunately, they signed mostly bit players and fill-in type guys, only really bringing in one upper level player (Aubrey Huff, 3yr/$20M), and no one under the age of 28.

Baltimore has so many problems that one offseason of spending isn’t even about to touch them. They need wholesale changes, and they need to start right at the top. Peter Angelos has driven this team into the ground in the past ten years, treating the team as nothing more than his own personal piggy bank, drawing untold sums of money from the other Major League Teams in revenue sharing money, not to mention his blatant extortion of the other owners over the Nationals’ relocation to Washington DC.

However, short of forcing Angelos to sell the team (there’s no way he would ever give it up freely), Orioles fans will have to suffer through another losing season. Shame too, as they’ve finally developed some pretty decent talent in their system, but will have to watch them go to waste.

Guys like Erik Bedard, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and Adam Loewen, have all come along in the past couple of years. Enjoy them now, Orioles fans, because they’ll all be wearing other teams’ hats in the coming years.

Biggest subplot this season?

Fans’ frustrations. Last season, Orioles fans attempted to organize mass walkouts from Camden Yards on multiple occasions to show their displeasure with the team. Here’s the problem with that strategy – if fans don’t support this team, management says “why should we spend more – the fans don’t care”. If fans sell out the park, buy all the merchandise and cheer wildly at every game, win or lose, management says “why should we spend more – the fans are already showing up when the team stinks! We’re not going to sell any more tickets – we’d just be losing money”. It’s a no-win for the fans, and it’s a shame.

Best player you should start looking out for?

Nick Markakis. The 23-year old right fielder was probably brought up one year too early last season, but he certainly didn’t suffer from it. His .291/16/62 stat line shows room for improvement, and with any type of support in the lineup, he should continue to impress.

Biggest unseen roadblock?

After Erik Bedard, there is nothing in that rotation. #2 starter Kris Benson will most likely miss the entire season with a should surgery, so the next option becomes Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera managed a stellar 9-10 record last season, and once walked six Red Sox in one inning. Not exactly a claim to fame to be proud of. He’s wildly erratic, at best, and that’s not a quality you’re looking for in a #2 starter.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: The worst team in the Major Leagues last season, the Rays have nowhere to go but up. How far up is still in question, but they certainly can’t get any worse than their ’06 record of 61-101. Can they?

Well, they made a grand total of one free agent signing this year – 28-year old Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura. Not that Iwamura wasn’t a good signing; by all accounts he should be a very good third baseman, and might even contend for an All-Star slot. But the D-Rays, like the Orioles, have far too many holes to patch up all at once.

The rotation behind Scott Kazmir is, well, non-existent. Seth McClung, Casey Fossum, Shawn Camp... basically, non-existent. What they do have is a pretty good core on offense, most of whom are locked up at low money that suits the Rays budgetary constraints. Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, BJ Upton, Jonny Gomes… the Rays have only 2 position players (Greg Norton & Josh Paul) and two pitchers (Camp & Dan Miceli) on their roster over the age of 29.

They could follow the Marlins’ old formula and try to make a push with young pitching and very young, brash offense. Problem is, they need a little more talent, and they need to get out of the AL East.

Biggest subplot this season?

How many games will have more D-Rays fans than opposing team’s fans? More often than not, there are more Red Sox/Yankees and occasionally fans of other teams in the stands than actual home team fans. It can’t be fun for the Rays’ players to be playing, at home, in front of more fans cheering for them to lose than to win. Kind of like playing for the Celtics right now.

Best player you should start looking out for?

Obviously, Iwamura will be getting some attention by mid-season, but he’s coming from Japan with a long resume. Guys like BJ Upton and Delmon Young are the most likely to be ignored early on, until they start putting up the numbers. The unfortunate side here is that Upton & Young will likely take too long to develop into big-time players, and guys like Baldelli, Crawford, Kazmir & Jorge Cantu will have moved on.

Biggest unseen roadblock?

Just like with the Royals, no one is expecting the D-Rays to be a competitive force in the division or league. If they can steal a couple from the powerhouse teams, they might be able to build some confidence heading into next year. But until they add more good arms to the rotation, they’re nothing but fodder for the actual contenders to tune up on.

Labels: 2007, American League, East, MLB, Preview

posted by Big D @ 2:25 PM