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2008 MLB Preview - Part 2: American League

Rather than bombard everyone with my standard MLB breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… six divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into two separate posts.

So… uh… here we go!

Today’s post – the American League. Click here to read all about the NL in 2008

American League East

Boston Red Sox (94-68)

New York Yankees (88-74)

Toronto Blue Jays (84-78)

Tampa Bay Rays (75-87)

Baltimore Orioles (64-98)

As much as I would like to do it, I cannot in good conscience come out and endorse the Red Sox as the best team in the American League. They didn’t do anything to make their team better in the offseason (ahem… Johan Santana anyone?) aside from bringing in whatever is left in Bartolo Colon. And more importantly, their top two starters are starting the season on the shelf. Josh Beckett will probably only be laid up for a couple of weeks, but how his body responds when he returns is a big question. Perhaps more importantly, Curt Schilling won’t even consider returning to the rotation until after the All-Star Break, and maybe later. So with all of that, how can I possibly pick them to win the division? Because they still have the best overall team in the AL East. If they can manage to either hold a slim lead or even be just a game or two back by the time Schilling returns, they’ve got the horses (and the trading chips) to make a push and take the division for the second year in a row.

Another year, another year older. Nice way to explain the Yankees. They’re not getting younger at any major positions including the rotation and closer spots. A-Rod isn’t in a contract year this season, so to think he’d duplicate last year’s numbers is probably asking a lot. And to top it all off, they’ve got a new manager in this, the final season of Yankee Stadium, meaning even more expectations and emotions all season long. They can never be counted out of a season before it even starts, but I’m just not sure they’ve got enough to compete all year long. (Side Note: On the ESPN.com Free Agent Tracker, they list the dollars spent by a team in the offseason… the Yankees gave out nearly $400 Million in guaranteed money this year. I mean… that’s Monopoly money.)

Toronto has done a decent job overhauling what they had going last year. They moved Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen, and brought in Rolen’s infield mate in David Eckstein from St. Louis. Last season, the Jays had everything in place to make a solid run at the AL East. But losing both their #1 & #2 starters, plus their closer, plus about a third of their position players to injuries at various times in the year kind of derailed their season before it ever really started. This season they’ve got all their pieces back in place, and lost only Josh Towers from last season’s roster. They should be able to hang around all season long, and if either Boston or New York gets out of the box a little slow, the Jays will be right there to make a move.

Every season, I look at the Rays (no longer the Devil Rays) and wonder “why can’t this team get it together?” They’ve got decent pitching, a pretty solid lineup, but they’ve never been able to put it all together into one winning season. This season, they’ve found another solid young starter in James Shields to pair up with Scott Kazmir. If Carlos Pena can come anywhere close to last season’s numbers, they could have a legitimate threat in the lineup to drive Carl Crawford home 100-120 times. And no matter what they do on the field, there will be about 3500 Rays fans in the stand to watch it happen.

Last season the Baltimore Orioles almost managed to finish in the basement of the AL East, but somehow they stayed three games ahead of the Rays to end the year a stellar 69-93. This year, they won’t be so lucky. They traded away their best pitcher and best hitter in separate deals with Seattle and Houston. They got nice young players in return… who won’t contribute much for the next three to five seasons. They signed one free agent – 37-year old Steve Trachsel, who happened to be their own free agent, and a pitcher that likely had one or maybe two other suitors, at best. The Orioles might be the biggest joke in the majors, narrowly edging out the Royals & Pirates for “current worst franchise in MLB”. I never thought it would be possible, but Peter Angelos’ ownership has turned one of the best baseball cities in the country into a bunch of displaced Nationals fans.

American League Central

Detroit Tigers (100-62)

Cleveland Indians (97-65)

Chicago White Sox (81-81)

Minnesota Twins (78-84)

Kansas City Royals (65-97)

Of all the teams in MLB, no one did more to improve their team than the Detroit Tigers. Someone obviously poked owner Mike Illitch to remind him that he was in charge of both the Red Wings and Tigers, as he has opened the wallet and turned into the Mark Cuban of the Major Leagues. This season, the Tigers brought in an All-Star shortstop in Edgar Renteria, as well as a former #1 starter in Dontrelle Willis (who will probably end up being a #3 or #4 when it’s all said and done in the AL) and Miguel Cabrera, one of the best young third baseman in the game. No one knows how all these moves will affect the Tigers, but they can’t hurt. Detroit now sports one of the deadliest lineups in the American League with Granderson, Renteria, Cabrera, Ordonez, and Sheffield, and one of the deepest rotations with the D-Train moving into the #3 starters role. Ladies and gentlemen… your 2008 Best Team in Baseball – Regular Season Edition.

For the first time in about a decade, I’m convinced that the Wild Card is not coming out of the East or West. The Indians came on strong at the end of the season in ’07 as the Tigers faltered, then managed to give up the AL Pennant to three straight Red Sox victories in the ALCS. They might be the “hungriest” team in the American League this year. Throw in a contract year for their #1 starter, a bullpen that cannot possibly be worse than it has been the past two years, and a lineup that works well from top to bottom, and they’ve got no reason not to make the playoffs this year.

I can only imagine that last season was an abberation for the White Sox. In 2005, they won a World Series. In 2006 they won 90 games… and finished third in this division. Then last year, they dropped to 72 wins and a fourth place finish. Something about that just doesn’t make sense. They should be at the very least a .500 club, and they’ve still got most of the important pieces from the ’05 club that went the distance. They might even surprise everyone and break out another 90-win campaign, but I’m not optimistic about it. I’ll give them a .500 season, and see if they can beat expectations.

As a New Englander and a fan of all Boston sports teams… I’m certain most people from Minnesota hate us. Kevin Garnett. Randy Moss. And almost Johan Santana. But as far as this year’s Twins team goes, I just can’t see how they can be competitive in that division. They traded away two of their top three pitchers from 2007, and allowed the third to walk in free agency. They lost their only recognizable face in the field when Torii Hunter hit free agency and took a mega deal from the Angels. They still have a solid closer in Joe Nathan and a former MVP in Justin Morneau, as well as whatever Francisco Liriano can give them coming back from Tommy John Surgery… but not much else. A .500 season would be a victory this year. Of course, it’s the Twins – they always seem to outperform expectations.

Finally, the Kansas City Royals. In all honestly, without looking it up I don’t think I could name more than four Royals players. Gil Meche. Zack Grienke. Tony Pena. Mark Teahan. What’s even sadder is that while typing this part of the preview, I’m watching the Royals/Tigers opening day game. Which should tell you everything you need to know about the Royals. Even if they manage to sneak out a .500 season, nobody is going to notice. They need to suddenly turn into the 2003 Marlins – young team, no expectations, just having fun and coming out of nowhere to grab a playoff spot – before anyone outside of Missouri begins to pay attention. And even then, it will be more for the spectacle than the substance.

American League West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California, United States of America, North America, Earth (94-68)

Seattle Mariners (89-73)

Texas Rangers (78-84)

Oakland Athletics (72-90)

The Angels lost three players from last year’s roster, and brought in only two. They let Bartolo Colon and Dallas McPherson go to Boston and Florida, respectively, and imported Torii Hunter via free agency from the Twins and Jon Garland from the White Sox in a trade for Orlando Cabrera. Hunter fills the position in the outfield that they thought Gary Matthews Jr. would take last season, and provides them with possibly the best defensive outfield in the major leagues whenever Matthews plays left field in place of the slowly calcifying Garrett Anderson. They’ve got one of the best lineups in the bigs, with power and speed up and down the card. Unfortunately, the starting rotation is beginning the season with 40% of the pitchers on the shelf. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will be on the DL when the year begins, with Escobar likely to miss most if not the entire season. Much like Boston, the Angels need to simply hang around near the top of the division until they get all their pieces healthy, and they should be able to take it home down the stretch.

The Seattle Mariners made one of the biggest moves in the offseason, adding Eric Bedard to their rotation alongside Felix Hernandez to give them one of the nastiest 1-2 punches for the foreseeable future in the majors. Bedard has been nothing short of dominant pitching in the far tougher AL East for the last three seasons, and now the 28-year old lefty moves away from the Red Sox and Yankees and into pitcher friendly Safeco Field. There’s no reason to think he won’t be able to duplicate or exceed his numbers from the past two seasons when he went 28-16 with 392 K’s pitching for a much worse Orioles team. If the Mariners can get anything out of their overpriced, underperforming offense, they can make a serious push to the top of this division.

The Texas Rangers have the unfortunately distinction of playing in Coors Field East (or… Central). The Ballpark at Arlington is possibly the least pitcher-friendly park in the American League, and the Rangers team ERA over the past few seasons reflects it (4.75 in 2007, 4.60 in 2006, 4.96 in 2005, 4.53 in 2004… see a pattern?) Normally, teams without any chance of winning through pitching will keep as many big power hitters around as they can find. But the Rangers traded away their best power bat in Mar Teixeira last season, and imported only Josh Hamilton this year. Not exactly a formula for success. If there is a silver lining, it’s that they only have to beat three other teams if they happen to get hot at the right time in order to make a surprise surge in the division. It won’t happen, but at least it’s positivity…

Finally, the Oakland A’s. In 2007, they had the worst offense in baseball. This year, they’ve done nothing to get better, and they traded away their best starting pitcher in Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks. They might be the first team in a very long time to struggle to break 400 runs scored in a single season, and it’s pretty safe to say that the playoffs are still a few years away. They are relying on a rotation that’s now anchored by Rich Harden – he of the combined 13 starts since 2006 – and a batting lineup sporting only two regulars that have ever hit 20 home runs in a season.

Labels: 2008, American League, MLB, My annual attempt at relevancy, Preview

posted by Big D @ 5:53 PM