The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

NBA Finals Preview

OK, I’ve refrained from writing anything at all about the NBA during the playoffs for two reasons. First, I’m kind of superstitious, and didn’t want to risk the chance of a Celtics/Lakers Finals. Yes, I realize it’s stupid. But it’s easier to sit back and wait a couple weeks (months) for the first three rounds to run their course before writing it all up. And second, let’s face it – I don’t write about the NBA a lot. I’ve written in this space numerous times that aside from the Celtics, I usually can’t stand watching NBA Basketball. Too often in recent years an NBA game becomes a 1-on-1 showdown with eight other guys standing around watching. Even worse, with the timeouts and intentional fouling at the end of games, most times you can spend 35 minutes watching the final two minutes of the fourth quarter.

But since everything has fallen into place, and NBA fans are about to be rewarded with another Celtics/Lakers Finals (not to mention a Finals where it’s not almost a foregone conclusion which team is going to win), I figure it’s safe to come out of hiding and write a Finals preview post. And if I inadvertently jinx the whole thing, leading to a Lakers sweep in which they win all four by no less than fifteen points, well then I apologize in advance.

For the first time in recent memory, both teams are supremely balanced. Both teams have a “goto” scorer (Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce), both teams have a big man with exceptional offensive skills (KG, Pau Gasol), and both teams have the “third banana” type of guy who can either light it up or be stone cold on any give night (Lamar Odom, Ray Allen).

Obviously, Kobe Bryant is the single most dominant player in this series. He can single-handedly take over a game. He is the best shooter on the court most nights, and when his shot isn’t falling he has finally learned to trust is teammates enough to distribute the ball until he can find his shot. There is nobody on the Celtics that can guard him one-on-one, and most likely not even a double-team will shut him down completely. And considering how much I despise him, you can’t even imagine how hard it was to write those words.

With the addition of Gasol and the emergence of Odom as a legitimate third scorer, the Lakers are no longer one dimensional. In the past, it was as simple as double-teaming Kobe (or perhaps putting a cute 19-year old girl in the row behind the Lakers bench) and you could completely take him off his game. But now with other options, it’s no longer a one man team.

The counter to that argument is that there isn’t one player on the Lakers that can guard KG straight up. Gasol will most likely be guarding the Kendrick Perkins/Big Baby Davis/Leon Powe combo under the hoop, meaning Lamar Odom will be responsible for Kevin Garnett on most nights. If Garnett doesn’t average 20 points, 8 boards and probably 4-5 assists when he gets the double-team throughout the series, I’ll be stunned.

The final thing to keep in mind here is history and desire. Kobe has three rings. Phil Jackson has nine. It’s not like they’ve never been here before. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers are all looking for their first ring to validate careers. KG is already a Hall-of-Fame caliber player; a ring simply puts him in on the first ballot. Pierce is a borderline HoF’er, and a ring would only add to his case. And Doc is desperately in need of a ring to validate his entire existence as an NBA coach. If they can’t get one with this team, they’re never going to get one. Celtics in 7 (naturally).

Labels: 2007-2008, Celtics, Finals, Lakers, NBA, Preview

posted by Big D @ 1:56 PM