Week 17 Picks
Week 17 Picks
You know what… does it even matter anymore? This week’s games mean something for only a handful of the teams playing, so why even try to pick them?
Here’s the thing. Teams are going to play differently pending the early games. If the Steelers already know they’ve been guaranteed a spot by way of the Chargers game against Denver (the tiebreakers are insane – click here if you’re really interested…) So do you think they’ll play 4 full quarters of balls-to-the-wall football if they have nothing to gain and run the risk of injuring key players?
Well, I guess I need something challenging to do to work off the frustration of yet another ridiculously bad run of luck at online poker. I’d been having a pretty good week, until I got bored tonight and logged back in.
Note to self – when bored in the future, GO TO SLEEP. Your body and bank account will thank you in the morning…
126-105-9 (holy crap! How the hell did that happen?) for the season, after a 12-4 week in Week 15 and a 10-4-2 last week.
Lines accurate as of 11PM Friday, from Sportsbook.com. Picks not guaranteed after kickoff on Saturday – I’m taking no responsibility if teams end up playing for nothing by Sunday…
Broncos (+11) over CHARGERS: See, this is exactly what I was talking about on Tuesday when I said that the Broncos have quietly coasted to the #2 seed in the AFC. While Indy was getting all the press for the chase at immortality, Denver just kept winning games en route to an impressive regular season.
Giants (-8.5) over RAIDERS: I’m giddy thinking about the next team Norv Turner is going to get a shot at running into the ground… This is another one of those games that will change the way a couple of the Sunday games are played. The Giants are still playing for a home playoff game. Here’s a question though – if you’re New York, would you rather travel to Chicago in round 2 as the #2 seed, or Seattle as the #4. Assuming, of course, that you can get by Washington, Tampa Bay, Carolina or Dallas… sorry, I just got a brain freeze.
COLTS (-7) over Cardinals: Alright, admit it. How many of you with late fantasy championship games grabbed Jim Sorgi this week? (Yes, I did…)
Ravens (-3) over BROWNS: Just like I was one year early with a prediction of Washington winning the NFC East, I think I might be one year early with Baltimore taking the AFC North. Did Kyle Boller suddenly figure out how to be a NFL quarterback? Don’t write off Cleveland in ’06 either… this is looking like it’s going to be the best division in football next year.
Bills (-1.5) over JETS: The best thing that could happen to New York would be a loss in this game, coupled with wins by Houston, New Orleans and Green Bay. I can’t even imagine the marketing war in New York City between Reggie Bush, Eli Manning, Johnny Damon and whichever Mets player Omar Minaya decides to pimp out this season… Manny anyone?
Panthers (-3.5) over FALCONS: I just have no faith in any wager that depends on Mike Vick playing like an NFL quarterback instead of an NFL running back with a good arm. Carolina still makes the playoffs with a win, and takes the division with a win and a Bucs loss.
Bears (+4.5) over VIKINGS: In a game with ZERO value, I’m just taking the better overall team. I’m sure they’ll be resting by the 4th quarter, but with a first-round bye, they’ll be playing hard for the first three…
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Bengals: Pending the Chargers/Broncos game on Saturday. If the Chiefs still have something to play for, they’ll be awful hard to beat in Arrowhead. If they’re done already, this game might get ugly. One word of caution – take the over. I took it at O/U 48, and I’m OK with that number…
STEELERS (-13.5) over Lions: Doesn’t matter if they’ve clinched before kickoff or not, the Lions have absolutely no reason to be in this game. And that’s coming from someone who cringes every time he even considers giving up seven or more points.
PATRIOTS (-5.5) over Dolphins: The Pats can still get the #3 seed I the AFC with a win and Bengals’ loss, so look for them to play this game hard, for at least three quarters. After that, it just might be Flutie time!
BUCCANEERS (-13.5) over Saints: If the Saints were smart, they’d sit everyone and just sign people out of the stands to give themselves the best shot at the #1 pick (If Houston wins and New Orleans loses, Reggie Bush will be marching through the Superdome, or wherever the Saints are playing, in 2006). Of course, these are the Saints we’re talking about. They’re led by a guy who actually thought a 46-50 career record with the team warranted a demand for a new contract. Who knows – New Orleans will probably play hard and only lose by six. You know what? I’m done talking about this game. I’m just too tired.
49ERS (+1.5) over Houston: Wait a minute. The Texans need to lose to ensure the #1 pick in the draft. They are the road team. San Francisco can’t do any better than the 2nd overall pick with a loss, and they need help just to get that (wins from the Saints, Packers, and Jets). How are the Texans favored again? Did Houston suddenly re-sign Warren Moon? I know Alex Smith looks bad, but… I mean, c’mon!
JAGUARS (-3.5) over Titans: Not that Jacksonville has anything left to play for, but they still should be able to beat the Titans by four points at home. And if they can’t, then I am salivating at the thoughts of them coming to Foxboro in a week…
Seahawks (+5) over PACKERS: We’ll finally get the answers to the questions we’ve all been dying to know, like “who exactly is the backup quarterback in Seattle?” or “how long should the franchise running back play in a meaningless game just to break a record that has been broken twice in the last six years alone?” These are things I need to know, and preferably before I put any actual money on the game…
Redskins (-8) over EAGLES: How fitting of an end to the season would it be for Philadelphia if they were the only NFC East team to miss the playoffs? And who would be happier about this: Giants’ fans, Redskins’ fans, Cowboys’ fans, or Terrell Owens & Drew Rosenhaus?
COWBOYS (-12.5) over Rams: Regardless of the playoff situation, the Cowboys are going to take out a year’s worth of frustrations on the poor Rams. Watch this game – Dallas might break 50.
RECAP: Broncos / Giants / COLTS / Ravens / Bills / Panthers / Bears / CHIEFS / STEELERS / PATRIOTS / BUCS / 49ERS / JAGUARS / Seahawks / Redskins / COWBOYS
Best lines to tease (+6):
Broncos (+11 to +17)
Giants (-8.5 to -2.5)
Bears (+4.5 to +10.5)
CHIEFS (-7.5 to -1.5)
STEELERS (-13.5 to -7.5)
BUCS (-13.5 to -7.5)
49ERS (+1.5 to +7.5)
Seahawks (+5 to +11)
That’s it and that’s all for 2005. Have a safe and happy New Year’s celebration, and if you’re in the Boston area, please try not to step on my sorry, drunk ass when I’m passed out somewhere in the Commons…
Lata.
Week 16 Recap
Quick thoughts while signing up for yet ANOTHER blog site (MySpace)...
So, this MySpace shit is actually pretty cool. Just by signing up and attaching myself at the hip to my friend Knob’s site, I immediately joined the “Extended Network” of a bunch of cool people, most notably Howard Stern, Dave Attell, Jenna Jameson, Nick Lachey and William Hung (not too proud of the last two). Actually, that doesn’t mean much – it seems everyone is in an extended network of some sort. But I’m not gonna lie to you – I’m not cool enough to be in the same category as any of those people.
Well, I might have William Hung beat...
n What the hell happened to the Chicago Bears? I turned the game off at 24-7 with 8 minutes to go (and my -7.5 cover well in hand), and when I check back later, they gave up 10 unanswered and TOTALLY screwed me over! Sons of bitches – that’s the last time you’ll get any of my money!
n What an unbelievable final in the fantasy football playoffs last night. Trailing by 18 points with Tom Brady yet to play, my buddy Chris came within inches of taking home the 2005 Ashford Fantasy League (AFL) Championship. Brady’s 17 fantasy points were all he could muster before he sat in favor of Doug Flutie late in the (real) game, and Chris watched helplessly as he fell one point short of a title. Hell of a run. Congrats to Andy and the Demo Team, who finally got the Championship win after back to back seasons coming up one game short. Andy’s two trades with league commissioner Vinny could easily go down as the worst in the history of all fantasy sports. In two trades, Andy managed to acquire Carson Palmer, Plaxico Burress, Larry Johnson and Keenan McCardell in exchange for Drew Bledsoe, Andre Johnson, Marvin Harrison and Braylon Edwards, with Rudi Johnson and Tiki Barber switching teams and then switching back four weeks later. Inexcusable GM work from Vinny (and yes, I realize that my lack of movement on a T.O. deal two weeks before he was canned for the year basically doomed my season).
OK, sorry. For those of you not involved in that league, the last five minutes much have been excruciatingly boring. Let’s get back to real topics...
n So... Jeff Reardon. Uh... what exactly was that? And more importantly, did the Palm Beach Gardens police get credit for the hold? (I’ll hold for the groans as the terrible attempt at humor passes...)
n Welcome back to the NFL, Ricky Williams.
n Steve Smith may have cost the Panthers the playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see how big this becomes if Carolina comes up one game short.
n Speaking of coming up short... what the hell happened to the Bengals on Saturday? I mean, the “Santa Chad” routine was good, but it kind of pales in comparison to Terrence “The Grinch” McGee and his monster game. It’s almost like Cincinnati is simply happy to have clinched the division. I can’t wait to bet against them in the playoffs...
n Ditto for Jacksonville in any game they might be favored in... Though with their first round opponent guaranteed to be either New England or Cincy, there’s no way they’ll be favored...
n Speaking of New England – was that an impressive Monday Night game or what? First Monday nighter in a long time that I’ve watched start to finish (mostly because I was praying for a 7-point Pats win). If I’m Indianapolis right now, I’m starting to look over my shoulder a little...
n Although the Broncos are coasting to the #2 seed and a complete lack of credibility in the national media. I like their chances, a lot. No one is going to go into Denver and beat them, and they could certainly give a fight to Indy indoors...
n I was impressed by:
o The Patriots. See above.
o The Steelers. Wow. 209 rushing yards and 41 points? Against a Romeo Crennel defense? That’s cartoonish.
o The Cowboys & Redskins. Who would have thought that the NFC East would be the tightest division in football this year? Certainly not me...
o The Dolphins. You wait. The AFC East is going to be a tight race in 2006. No question that Miami will be in contention.
n I was appalled by:
o New York. Giants blow a big game, and the Jets put up absolutely no fight until the game is out of reach. Nice work fellas. At least the Jets can look forward to Reggie Bush if they lose next week, and the Texans, Saints and Packers all win. All the Giants have to look forward to is a first-round playoff exit if Eli Manning doesn’t fix whatever’s wrong with him in a hurry...
o Minnesota. Way to blow it at the end guys. I was planning to drive that bandwagon into a wall in Week 17 – looks like I blew a flat one week early. Well, at least they can book their off-season team cruise in advance now... hey, maybe Mike Tice could even scalp tickets – I’m sure half of the men in America would stand in line for them!
o San Francisco. They killed the dream of a “play-in” game to decide who the worst team in the NFL is next week. Now we have to sort through complex mathematical formulas and watch five different games just to figure out who gets the honor of being dead last. That is, assuming of course, that Houston wins in Week 17 against the Niners. Considering how inept NFL teams seem to be at throwing games this year, I fully expect the New Orleans Saints (oops, sorry - Los Angeles Saints of Louisiana) to end up with the #1 pick, then blow it on Matt Leinart or Vince Young. What a joke.
n Could someone please explain to me how Brett Favre is still starting football games? It’s really ugly. It actually pains me to watch, yet there’s enough of a cringe factor involved that I can’t turn away. Plus, with Favre’s history of throwing up a monster game just when everyone had him written off for dead, you’ve got to keep tuning in to see if he’s going to post one of those 425yd, 4 TD games just one more time.
Quote of the Week:
Actually a sign, not a quote. I took Thursday and Friday off of work last week to relax before the holidays. On Thursday, I drove to Foxwoods with my friends Don and Jay. On the way down, we passed a road emergency sign that read the following:
“Transit Emergency. AVOID NEW YORK CITY”.
Now, although I enjoy driving through New York City, I’ve never spent any considerable amount of time in the city itself, so that sentiment couldn’t have rung any truer for me.
Just trust me. AVOID NEW YORK CITY. For your own good. It became a running theme of the car ride.
Maybe you had to be there.
Lata.
Week 16 Picks
Week 16 Picks
These are the toughest two weeks to pick in the NFL. After another nice week for me (12-4), I’m absolutely petrified by half of these lines, if only because about 70% of the teams in the NFL have nothing to play for. The ones that do are either fighting for a 6th playoff seed or else openly tanking the season to have a shot at Reggie Bush. And somehow, there are still six different games with 6-point or higher lines. Well, let’s just get this debacle over with...
Lines from Sportsbook.com, and accurate as of 3PM Friday, December 23.
BENGALS (-13.5) over Bills: Only because Cincinnati has a legitimate shot at a #2 seed and a first-round bye, and because the Bills are in complete turmoil as an organization. Well, that, and because Chad Johnson may or may not bring a live deer onto the field for a TD celebration – if I’m the Bills, I’m triple-teaming him at all times to avoid this. Forget the game, just don’t let Chad bring the wildlife onto the field and embarrass us...
Steelers (-7.5) over BROWNS: I think Cleveland could probably keep this one close, but I also think that Pittsburgh is going to pull out all the stops in their final two games to hold on to their playoff spot. Pittsburgh, big.
CHIEFS (+2) over Chargers: This line opened with KC as a 1-point favorite, and has slid three points in the opposite direction. Here’s the thing – KC is just about out of playoff contention. They need to win out against SD and Denver, and still get some help. But they also can keep the division-rival Chargers out of the playoffs with a win this week. The Chiefs are awful tough at home – I’m giving them an outright win.
DOLPHINS (-5.5) over Titans: The Dolphins aren’t really as bad as everyone seems to think. And although the Titans were able to hang tough with the NFC’s best team last week, that’s kind of like being the smallest kid at fat camp – it doesn’t mean much. Miami will be a contender to the AFC East title in 2006, and they should be able to win this one handily.
Jaguars (-6.5) over TEXANS: See, didn’t I tell you last week that the Jaguars are just impossible to figure out? Unfortunately, the handicappers have realized that making the Jags 16-point favorites against anyone is probably a bad idea... What’s not hard to figure out is that the Texans will do everything in their power to stay in the hunt for the #1 overall pick. Week 17 versus the 49ers is shaping up to be possibly the worst game in NFL history...
Lions (+3) over SAINTS: ...narrowly edging out this game.
PANTHERS (-5) over Cowboys: Tough break for Dallas. It really looked for a while as though they had a good shot at the playoffs – now they’re third in their own division, with very little chance at the postseason. But on the plus side, at least they’re not the Eagles...
Eagles (+1) over CARDINALS: Did you ever think you’d see the day when the Eagles were underdogs to THE CARDINALS? Even at one point, it’s a sad state of affairs. And another thing – after watching Ryan Moats run behind a depleted offense for the last couple of weeks, do you think Philly’s management is beginning to regret that nice contract extension that Brian Westbrook got a couple months back?
Giants (+3) over REDSKINS: OK, I get it, the Redskins are streaky. They have two different three-game winning streaks as well as a three-game losing streak so far this season. And although Washington is currently on a three-game winning streak, I just think the Giants need this game more – after all, they’re not out of the running for the #2 overall seed in the NFC...
BUCS (-3) over Falcons: I don’t think there’s any way I could feel less certain about this line. I’ve watched Atlanta get hammered over the past month, but I also watched the Bucs get completely shut down last week in Gillette. Personally, I’m teasing it to Bucs (+3), just to be safe...
49ers (+9) over RAMS: Ugh...
BRONCOS (-13.5) over Raiders: Not as though the Raiders were going to keep this one very close, but now without Lamont Jordan for Week 16, they have very little threat of a running attack. The Broncos are beatable, just not this week.
Bears (-7) over PACKERS: Last Monday night was painful to watch. Not just because I was pulling for a Packers (+9.5) cover, but because Brett Favre has degenerated quicker than any athlete I can remember since Jim Rice began his collapse for the Red Sox a couple decades back. I never thought I’d see the Brett Favre Packers, at home, in December, be a 7-point underdog to ANYONE (let alone the Bears). I really hope he either hangs ‘em up, or gets one more shot to play for a contender in 2006, whether it’s in Green Bay (where he should be) or somewhere else, which no one could fault him for. He’s got the MVP hardware, he’s got the Lombardi hardware, and he’s got nothing left to prove.
RAVENS (-3) over Vikings: Amazing what a little 45-point demolishing can do for a team’s respect level, eh?
Patriots (-6) over JETS: Tough to hear that Matt Light isn’t coming back for the pats this season. Would have been nice to get him back to anchor the offensive line in the playoffs, further solidifying New England as the “team no one wants to play”.
SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over Colts: EVERYONE has pulled this line, considering the Colts’ lack of interest (as well as Marvin Harrison’s health status). Seattle still needs this win to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, and since Indy should be resting guys by halftime, I think the Seahawks can pull out a 13-point win.
RECAP: BENGALS / Steelers / CHIEFS / DOLPHINS / Jaguars / Lions / PANTHERS / Eagles / Giants / BUCS / 49ers / BRONCOS / Bears / RAVENS / Patriots / SEAHAWKS
Best Lines to tease (+6):
BENGALS (-13.5 to -7.5)
Steelers (-7.5 to -1.5)
Jaguars (-6.5 to -0.5)
Giants (+3 to +9)
BUCS (-3 to +3)
49ers (+9 to +15)
BRONCOS (-13.5 to -7.5)
SEAHAWKS (-7.5 to -1.5)
See you after the holidays. Have a safe, happy weekend.
Lata.
Week 15 Recap
Quick Thoughts while recounting my best gambling weekend ever...
n So, I had planned to tell you all the gory details of my online poker experience within this space. But considering the reactions I have gotten in the past when I devote my posts to poker, I'll just say this - I had a good weekend. In fact, it was bordering on a fantastic weekend, until I got screwed over last night by the cash-out rules at PartyPoker. If you want the details, get a hold of me and I'll tell you in person...
n Would it be unprecedented for the Texans to completely collapse under the pressure of losing every game? I'm looking forward to the "Reggie Bowl" in Week 17 - Texans/Niners - The winner is actually the loser...
n I fear the Chargers may have awakened a sleeping giant... Now Indy essentially gets three straight bye weeks to rest up for the postseason.
n I'll be honest - if the Bears can somehow avoid playing the Seahawks in Seattle (or altogether, for that matter) I don't see any NFC team that can keep them from the Super Bowl...
n A Patriots' three-peat suddenly isn't looking as ridiculous as it did three weeks ago...
n I was impressed by:
o The Chargers. For obvious reasons.
o The Redskins. And now they're the NFC's 6th seed...? That is just a horrible conference.
o The Giants. Although, considering I had to play against both Larry Johnson and Tiki Barber (and to a lesser degree, Plaxico Burress) in a fantasy league playoff, this game just killed me...
o The Bears. Statement win against yet another folding NFC South team.
n I was appalled by:
o Tampa Bay. At least put up a fight fellas...
o Dallas. OK, so I was one week off with my prediction of Drew Bledsoe packing it in for the winter...
o Houston. I think they had to win, just to silence all the critics who said they were throwing the season...
o Jacksonville. Playoff teams don't beat the 49ers on comeback field goals...
o Seattle. Just change the above line to read "Titans" and "Touchdowns"...
n So here's my little Awards rant... For me, there are six legitimate contenders for 2005 NFL MVP: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady. Peyton & Edge will probably take votes away from each other. Alexander, although supremely talented, plays in mild obscurity from the non-fantasy football media. Carson Palmer has the stats, but with his team, Rudi Johnson could also be considered. That leaves Tiki Barber and Tom Brady - two guys who have absolutely carried their respective teams this season. Personally, although I would like to hand it to Brady, I think his record over the past four years actually hurts him - he's supposed to be the savior. Tiki gets my imaginary vote, not just because he absolutely torched me this week, but because he has consistently been dominant, even when his young QB struggled and the passing threat just wasn't great enough for defenses to take seriously.
n Side note: if the Chiefs somehow back-in to the playoffs, Larry Johnson gets a lot of consideration...
n 12-3 heading in to tonight's barnburner of a game (I'm taking credit for a win in the Pittsburgh/Minnesota game - I flip/flopped right after the news of the indictments against the Vikings came out.) I'm sticking by the Packers +4, even though I teased them up to +9.5, so as long as they don't lose by more than 9, I'll be a very happy man.
Lata.
Week 15 Picks
Week 15 Picks
Coming in to the home stretch of the season now. I really need three solid weeks to climb out of this funk of mediocrity (104-97-7 on the season) and end 2005 on a high note, giving me the confidence I’ll need heading into the playoffs and carrying me through to 2006.
Gawd, I sound like just about every NFL Head Coach, don’t I? Let’s just pick ‘em…
Lines from SportsInteraction.com via ESPN.com’s Daily Line, accurate of 11AM today…
PATRIOTS (-4) over Bucs: Heard a great point on the Dale & Holley show on WEEI earlier today. Why should Tom Brady play this game? The Pats are basically locked in to the AFC East title and the #4 seed (any Pats win or any Dolphins loss seals the deal), so why risk Brady’s health? If he plays, the Pats win big (but maybe at the risk of hurting the only irreplaceable player on the team). If he sits, it’s a close game, and probably a Bucs outright win. I say sit him – what are the odds of the Pats losing 3 straight (including @NYJ and home for Miami) and the Dolphins winning out?
GIANTS (-3) over Chiefs: Combine Kansas City’s inability to win on the road with the Giants’ dominance at home, and this shouldn’t be a close game. However… if Eli Manning can’t figure out what he’s doing wrong, the Chiefs might hang around just long enough to make this one interesting. I still think the G-Men win by 10 or more.
Broncos (-10) over BILLS: Now, I realize that the Broncos have looked really, really bad over the last two weeks. But the Bills are a lost cause at this point in the season. J.P. Losman looks like he might never evolve into the Franchise QB Buffalo hoped they had gotten when they traded up in the draft for him. Willis McGahee just isn’t “the best running back in the NFL”, no matter what he tries to tell us. Eric Moulds is probably going to leave the franchise, and Mike Mularkey has lame duck coach written all over him. On the flip side, the Broncos now actually have to fight with Cincy for that #2 seed and first-round bye, so they’ll be playing hard for four quarters.
TEXANS (+2) over Cardinals: Now with a two-game cushion in the Race for Reggie, the Texans are actually allowed to try and win a game. Luckily, they get the Cardinals in town, who aren’t too far behind Houston in the futility department…
Seahawks (-8) over TITANS: Has Seattle locked up the #1 seed in the NFC yet? They’re the only 10-win team in the conference, and they’ve already got 11. Sure, they could lose all three of their remaining games, and the Giants, Bears and Bucs could win out, pushing Seattle to the #4 seed. But, honestly, is there any chance that they don’t get a week off and a couple of home games in January?
Chargers (+8) over COLTS: I’m of the belief that the Colts will play their starters for no more than three quarters, regardless of the score at the time, and then pull them to get some rest. Next week will probably be only a half (though if Seattle’s locked up that #1 seed by then, that could be the most boring second half of football ever), and then Week 17 against Arizona, Peyton Manning will take one snap, throw a bomb to Marvin Harrison, then jog to the sidelines and take off the pads. There’s no reason to risk the injuries. Unfortunately, that makes my job of picking games involving the Colts much, much harder. I think with the reserves in there, the Chargers can make it close.
49ers (+16) over JAGUARS: Jacksonville is the one team in the league that I simply cannot figure out. One week, they absolutely dominate both sides of the ball. Then next week, they need late comebacks or a defensive stand just to hold on to a win. They’re 9-4, and I have no idea how. I just can’t believe that they can build a lead big enough to cover this line and hold it for four quarters.
Panthers (-9) over SAINTS: Not that it influenced my pick, but is the benching of Aaron Brooks in favor of Todd Bouman for the rest of the year just a metaphor for the Saints’ entire season? Tough year for these guys – but at least the NFL is giving them a $40,000 bonus for “performing under unusual and unanticipated conditions...”
Eagles (+4) over RAMS: No real reason here. When two lousy teams with unproven QB’s meet, I’m taking the one with the better defense. In this case, it just happens to be the team with the QB that didn’t go to Harvard…
DOLPHINS (-9) over Jets: Remember what I said earlier about “there’s no way the dolphins win out…” well, they certainly can make things interesting with this win and a possible Pats’ loss. And the way Miami has been playing the last couple of weeks, I guess nothing is impossible…
VIKINGS (-3) over Steelers: Pittsburgh isn’t stopping two big winning streaks on back-to-back weeks. If this game was outside, in the snow, with Jerome Bettis looking like Jerome Bettis circa 1998, maybe. But it’s indoors, in the climate controlled Metrodome, against the ball-control Vikings offense led by Brad Johnson under center. The Vikings’ bandwagon rolls on baby! I’m just happy I got in on the ground floor… edit: It was just announced that a handful of Vikings were indicted in the Boat Cruise scandal… I’m pulling this line off the board myself. If I had to make a new pick, I’d say take the Steelers, but tease them up to +9…
Browns (+3) over RAIDERS: Just when we thought that Norv Turner had settled on his crappy QB of choice… I should have known better than to pick against Romeo Crennel with a big line when he has the chance to scheme a defense specifically to stop one player (Carson Palmer last week, Peyton Manning earlier this year). This week, I think they load up on Lamont Jordan if Tuiasosopo starts, and they shut down Randy Moss & Jerry Porter if it’s Kerry Collins.
Bengals (-8) over LIONS: It’s looking more and more like the only football game played in Detroit this year that will actually have fans interested will be the Super Bowl. Just a terrible, terrible team. Awful product on the field, and it’s the fault of the awful product sitting in the GM’s box.
Cowboys (+2) over REDSKINS: Somehow, the Redskins are not eliminated from Wild Card contention yet. Although with four teams ahead of them (including the boys in blue that they’re playing this week), this loss will put the final nail in the coffin of the once promising 2005 season. Cowboys by at least a TD.
BEARS (-3) over Falcons: Let’s see, a banged-up Mike Vick against the best defense in the NFL, or a shaky Kyle Orton against a vastly overrated Falcons’ defense. You know what, with the game outdoors in Chicago, at night, and in primetime, even all the ass-kissing that the ESPN crew can level on Mike Vick isn’t winning this game for Atlanta, and it will probably seal them out of the playoff race as well.
Packers (+4) over RAVENS: This is obscene. Last week, we got Green Bay & Detroit on the National Sunday Night telecast, and Atlanta vs. New Orleans on Monday. This week, we get the Falcons and Bears (a game that might produce 24 total points) as the Sunday Night game, and this train wreck on Monday Night. What ever happened to the idea of the NFL switching games to give the National TV audience the best games to watch? Whatever – Packers win, Brett Favre throws at least one bad pick, Kyle Boller spontaneously combusts at midfield to the delight of Ravens’ fans worldwide.
RECAP: PATRIOTS / GIANTS / Broncos / TEXANS / Seahawks / Chargers / 49ers / Panthers / Eagles / DOLPHINS / VIKINGS / Browns / Bengals / Cowboys / BEARS / Packers
Best Lines to tease (+6):
Bucs (+4 to +10)
Broncos (-10 to –4)
TEXANS (+2 to +8)
49ers (+16 to +22)
DOLPHINS (-9 to –3)
Browns (+3 to +9)
Bengals (-8 to –2)
Packers (+4 to +10)
Lata.
Week 14 Recap
Quick Thoughts while deciding who I hate more – The Raiders or The Jets…
n I am not a big Norv Turner fan today. The move to Marques Tuiasosopo (can’t believe I spelled that right on the first try) wasn’t finalized before I had all of my bets placed for the week. Since there were only “rumors” that Tuiasosopo was going to start over Kerry Collins, I decided that the Raiders could handle the Jets and cover the (-3) line. So confident was I, that I had the Raiders parlayed or teased (at +3) into all but one bet. I think you can guess how well that went…
n Of course, this wouldn’t be a problem if the Jets had realized that they were supposed to lose that game. I mean, they’re going to need to replace Curtis Martin next season, and unless they totally tank this year and the Texans somehow blow it and win out, Houston’s getting that #1 pick and the Heisman winner that comes along with it…
n See, I knew this would happen. I had back-to-back 11-5 weeks to get all the way up to 98-88-6, during which time I had some fun, made some money, and looked like a relative football genius. Then this week, I got greedy, pushed my bets, and I’m 5-9-1 heading into tonight’s game. 97 losses already – only had 100 all of last season. I’m gonna have to step it up for the last three weeks of the season – three 15-1’s oughta do it…
n Remember waaaaaaay back in late November 2004, when I listed some of my basic rules for football picks? Well, this week blew them up. I picked so many big lines that even I’m ashamed of myself. The Broncos laying 12? Sure, why not? Cincinnati giving up 12 more to the Browns, even though the Bengals have no semblance of a defense? I see no problem with that (I actually picked that one right, then laid dollars on the Bengals. Idiot…) San Diego in a clear trap game against a team with a lot of pride and an above-average defense? Let’s give up, oh, I don’t know, 14 points? That sounds about right. God I’m a jackass…
n I was impressed by…
o Seattle. Letdown game? Was I drunk or something? That’s one way to cement your standing as the best team in the NFC…
o Indianapolis. I think at this point, the Colts should have a permanent home in the “I was impressed by” portion of these posts…
o Tampa Bay. They needed that game, and they went out and just took it away from Carolina. So much for that “cold snap” hitting the east coast…
o Cleveland. I’m telling you, this team is going to be fun to watch in 2006…
o Jacksonville. That’s going to be a tough match-up for the Patriots in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Speaking of…
o New England. After two lousy drives to start the game, they rolled the Bills with a surgical precision that was eerily reminiscent of the way their offense has operated over the past three Super Bowl seasons. I can’t let myself get caught up in this, but if they were to advance one round in the playoffs to play at Indy in round two… I mean, would that not be the most hyped playoff game ever? Even more, they would have to play Indy twice this year with the Colts coming off of bye weeks. Almost seems unfair.
n I was appalled by…
o The Broncos. So… does this mean that Seattle is actually the second-best team in the NFL?
o The Raiders. The Jets have no reason to be competitive, and you still manage to lose (and badly) to a team playing for draft position and nothing else. That’s pretty sad.
o The Texans. Actually, wait. They still lost the game; they’re still in line for Reggie Bush (or a boatload of draft picks to address a bunch of other needs – RB is one of the few spots they’re solid at). You know what? Nice work fellas. Keep it up…
o The Rams. And so ends the Great Harvard QB experiment…
o The Chargers. Any chance they got caught looking ahead to Indy in week 15? I understand that Miami is playing for pride and to prove that they can be a serious contender in ’06 (they’ll be pretty solid, you watch). But c’mon. In the picks, I wrote that it would be a travesty if the Chargers were the odd-man out of the playoffs this year. Well, after this week, I’m ready to write them off as nothing more than first round fodder for the #3 seed (Bengals or Broncos), so they might as well stay home and let a more competitive team (Kansas City) step in. Speaking of KC…
o The Chiefs. You guys have really got to learn how to A) Hold a lead, and B) Win on the road. Not sure if they realize it yet, but if they make the playoffs, they will not get a home game the entire time. I just don’t see any way that they’ll advance a round.
o My fantasy football seasons. After starting the year hot, going 6-0 to open and reaching the 10-win mark faster than anyone else, my boys found a way to choke away the division title last night, only backing in to a Wild Card spot thanks to the Seahawks ridiculous defensive effort against Philly in Week 13. A sure first round exit and a long off-season lamenting the loss of T.O., Marc Bulger, Byron Leftwich and the unexpected calcification of Curtis Martin await The Kids’ Table, as we make tee times for the next six months…
n Quickly, before I forget. I’m holding off on a lot of baseball talk in this space, instead reserving it for football – related nonsense. I plan to use the bye week before the Super Bowl as a space to review the off-season moves for each team, since many of the biggest names will have found homes by then. However, I have to mention one thing today… How unbelievable would it be to have a 2006 Red Sox starting rotation of Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Josh Beckett, Matt Clement and Tim Wakefield? I mean, that’s completely unfair, mostly to Jason Varitek. You’ve got four straight guys throwing 90+ on the gun, followed by Wakefield, whose fastball tops out at about 65. Highest of high comedy.
n I’ll stick by Atlanta (-10) tonight, though I still feel more comfortable with a tease down to (-4). And yes, I obviously haven’t learned my lesson about picking the big lines…
Lata.
Week 14 picks
Week 14 picks
I think I’m beginning to wear on my roommate’s nerves. You see, I have a nasty little habit (well, many more than one, but that’s another story). For some reason, while playing poker online, I always end up listening to Guns ‘N’ Roses “Appetite for Destruction”. Whether or not I start with anything else, my musical selection works it’s way back there.
At this point, I’ve gotten pretty good about using headphones, but I think that I continue to tap out the beat on the table far too much. I’m pretty certain that if he has to hear “Mr. Brownstone” one more time, I’m going to end up being strangled by my own headphone cord one night…
I have no idea where this is headed. Just felt like sharing. Onto this week’s picks…
Lines from PinnacleSports.com via ESPN.com’s Daily Lines, and accurate as of 2PM Thursday.
VIKINGS (-7) over Rams: Feel free to jump aboard the Vikings’ bandwagon… there’s plenty of space. I’ll keep driving this thing until about the first round of the playoffs, when I’ll hand the reins over to someone else and jump off mid-roll, just before it heads over the cliff…
Raiders (-5.5) over JETS: This line opened at Oakland (-3) and has jumped 2.5 points in three days. That’s not a good sign. Of course, it could be the fact that A) Curtis Martin’s knee might finally force him out of the lineup, or B) The Jets seem to be openly tanking games in the hopes of getting Reggie Bush.
STEELERS (-5.5) over Bears: Pittsburgh just needs it more… Besides, nothing exposes a young, weak QB like the threat of a looming QB controversy and a high-level defense on the other side of the ball. Combine that with the QB playing on the road, in a place like Pittsburgh, and it’ll be over faster than you can say “Rex Grossman”…
PANTHERS (-5.5) over Bucs: I really like Tampa in this game. In fact, I’d be perfectly happy teasing them up to +11.5. But there’s supposed to be a cold snap hitting the East Coast this weekend, meaning this game could be played in sub-zero temperatures. Carolina has a better running game, a better QB, and a better defense. Plus they’re the home team. It all makes sense when you do it scientifically, which is Why Tampa will probably win by 7+…
JAGUARS (+7.5) over Colts: First time I’ve picked against Indy in a long time… I think Houston (+22) was the last time I took a shot on a Colts’ opponent. This seems like it’s bound to be a 3 or 4-point game. Or maybe Indy wins by 30, who really knows. Let’s put it this way – I’m not touching it…
Patriots (-3.5) over BILLS: Paging Eric Moulds... Paging Eric Moulds… you have a call on line 2. Some guy who calls himself “T.O.”… says you’ll know who it is…
Browns (+12) over BENGALS: If the Bengals don’t put up 30 in this one, I’ll be stunned. Of course, I’d also be surprised if they didn’t allow at least 17… I’ll just tease it to Browns (+18). I’ll sleep better with that number…
TITANS (-6.5) over Texans: In the worst game of the week, the old, bad team beats the young, bad team into the ground.
49ers (+15.5) over SEAHAWKS: Talk about a letdown game… By the way, I now have a new favorite NFC Team to support. Not only did Seattle cover the (-4) comfortably last Monday night, allowing me to get some much needed sleep, but the defense had an absolutely ridiculous night, allowing my fantasy football team to execute a 30-point comeback win on Monday Night Football, securing a playoff spot in the only league that I’m still semi-competitive in…
Giants (-7) over EAGLES: No McNabb, no Westbrook, no T.O., um… why do we care about this game again? Well, unless you’re a Giants or Eagles fan that is. I suppose there’s a little “cringe factor” element here – watching just to see how bad Philly really has become. Otherwise, just chalk up the New York victory and move along…
Redskins (-3.5) over CARDINALS: Well, I was looking forward to seeing Santana Moss’ numbers on my fantasy team last week while he got to play the Rams’ defense. His line? 5 catches, 58 yards. Not real impressive. Maybe he’ll come through for me in a completely meaningless game against a porous Arizona secondary…
CHARGERS (-13.5) over Dolphins: It would be a complete travesty if the Chargers were the odd man out in the AFC Wild Card chase…
Chiefs (+3) over COWBOYS: I actually don’t have any hard reasoning for this pick, just a gut feeling. I think Drew Bledsoe has entered his annual “is the season over yet?” phase… more importantly, the Chiefs are riding a pretty nice emotional wave with big wins over New England and Denver the past two weeks. Let’s just see if they can do it on the road now…
BRONCOS (-14) over Ravens: So many big lines this week. Makes for some pretty nice teasers though. Anyway, back to this game. Denver is looking for a way to blow off some steam after getting handled by the Chiefs last week. Luckily, the horrible Ravens are coming to town, so the Broncos should be able to work out some of their anger issues…
PACKERS (-5.5) over Lions: No one cares… Just take Favre at home and in prime time…
FALCONS (-10) over Saints: If it weren’t the Saints, there’s no way I’d lay 10 points with Atlanta. But… Actually, no, I still won’t lay 10 with Atlanta. I’ll lay 4.
RECAP: VIKINGS / Raiders / STEELERS / PANTHERS / JAGUARS / Patriots / Browns / TITANS / 49ers / Giants / Redskins / CHARGERS / Chiefs / BRONCOS / PACKERS / FALCONS
Best Lines to Tease +6:
VIKINGS (-7 to –1)
Colts (-7.5 to –1.5)
BENGALS (-12 to –6) or Browns (+12 to +18) – shouldn’t matter…
TITANS (-6.5 to -.5)
SEAHAWKS (-15.5 to –9.5) or 49ers (+15.5 to +21.5)
CHARGERS (-13.5 to –7.5) or Dolphins (+13.5 to +19.5)
BRONCOS (-14 to –8)
Saints (+10 to +16) or FALCONS (-10 to -4)
Lots of big lines means lots of teasers. And lots of teasers means lots of games that can probably be teased either way (hence the 4 “or” teasers above). Good Luck, and I’ll see you here next week…
Hopefully with a new TV, and a much healthier bank account…
Lata.
