The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

I have a few simple rules. Some you know about (my 6-pt spread rule), and some you don’t. For the sake of making this post worthwhile, I’m going to break down most of them for you.

§ The 6-point rule: Even though I might make a pick on a game with a spread of more than 6 points, very rarely will I actually put real money on these games. For example, this week there were six games that fell into this category. Three of them would have scared me away (Pittsburgh –11, Atlanta –9.5 and Denver –10.5), and thus I would not have put money on them at all. The Colts as favorites are almost no-brainers at this point of the year, especially against a team like Detroit. The Eagles may require some thought, but usually I’ll give the points. Same with the Pats, although they usually fall under a different rule…

§ The Home-Team Rule: I usually abstain from betting on my home team, the Patriots. Unless it’s a slam-dunk cover (like against the Ravens this week or Cleveland next week… Oops, too much info too early), then I probably won’t put money on them. I have enough to cheer for without having money on the game. Good story though: last year I had one particularly bad week in which I lost 5 of my 6 actual wagers heading into MNF and was down a couple of hundred dollars, leaving me only about $100 with which to work. That was the week of the Pats/Broncos game. I decided to let the rest of my money ride on the Pats about an hour before game time. I got in at a –4 for New England and almost broke my TV when Bill Belichick gave up an intentional safety – until the Pats came back to win the game, give me my cover and break me even for the week. But there was way too much emotion involved.

§ The Great Players do Great Things rule: Listen, I’m a big fan of parity in the NFL. But some players just rise above everyone else, like Manning (the good one), Vick, Favre, Brady, Owens, Holmes, etc. With all else equal, I’m usually going to take the team that has the better standout player. Take into account the current atmosphere surrounding these star players as well – don’t bet on the 2004 Kurt Warner or Drew Bledsoe hoping to get the 1999 Kurt Warner or Drew Bledsoe.

§ Don’t bet what you can’t lose: Seems like a no-brainer, but you’d be surprised how many people will gamble with money that they think they can afford to lose, only to actually lose it and then say “I can’t believe I lost that much”. Listen – just because you’ve got an extra grand or two in the bank doesn’t mean you’ve gotta put it all on wagers in one week. Last season I originally deposited $150 into my BetOnSports.com Online Sports Book account. No more. I refused to let myself lose anymore than I could afford, even though at the time I had about $400 to work with. If you lose, don’t redeposit trying to win back what you’ve lost – it will lead to foolish bets and probably more debt.

§ Don’t bet scared: Yes, I realize this more or less flies in the face of what I just wrote, but hear me out. If you’ve got a gut feeling that the Giants have NO CHANCE to cover against Philly, then don’t be hesitant to put more money on that game than you normally would. But in turn, make sure you leave yourself outs. If you’ve got $500 in your account to work with, go ahead and drop $200 on the Iggles. Just make sure your other $300 is either saved or well dispersed among other games.

§ Don’t worry: Frantically watching games and looking for updates on scores isn’t going to do much for your bets once they’re placed, and will probably just end up giving you a coronary. Do your research before you bet. Once the money is laid, just sit back and hope for the best.

§ When all else fails, don’t bet: There’s no rule saying that you have to place a wager on every game. To be successful in the long run, you should probably play the “sure-thing” games and play them heavy. Would you rather be 8-6-2 in one week and only up about $50, or be 7-1 and be up $300? Records be damned, give me the cash. If you want the best of both worlds, vary your bets. Don’t be afraid to lay $100 on the Pats –7 to Baltimore, but hedge your bets by playing a couple of closer games for $20 or so.

There are other methods I use to decide where my money will go – like “Don’t bet against Brett Favre at home after Thanksgiving”, and other such nonsense. Sometimes I’ll reveal it in my posts. Sometimes I’ll keep the secrets all to myself. One thing’s for sure though…

…I gotta get some cash in on this.

Now, back to my earlier reference about my poker tournament entry. For some reason, very few people have actually believed that this was a real story. I have talked to about 15 or 20 people about this since it happened, either through phone, e-mail, IM or face-to-face conversations, and the response I keep getting is “No, really, what actually happened?” Or something along those lines.

People, if I was going to lie, don’t you think I would have come up with a better story, (like trapping Raymer to take all of his chips and win the entire tourney) not just talking to him over a few hands and then busting out 23^rd? Conspiracy theorists of the world unite!

One last thing. Actually, two. First, I have a new e-mail address for use specifically with these posts. Whether you’re currently reading on my Xanga site or my BlogSpot site, there is an e-mail link that will direct you to my new address: BigD29x@gmail.com. My old Hotmail address was starting to get a little bogged down with mail, so I moved to Gmail for their extra storage capacity. Feel free to send any questions, comments, ideas, money, etc. I’m more than used to the one-line e-mails of “Nice Post” and “you suck” alike – it’s just nice to get mail and feel loved.

Finally… my boy Tex has taken up blogging as an addictive life’s passion as well. I would be remiss if I did not link this article to his “In The News” blog. It’s quite funny, and has provided me with a few good laughs recently. I especially liked his take on the whole Pistons/Pacers brawl, which I completely neglected to write about. In an effort to remain “current’ and “hip” (do the kids still say “hip”?), I will simply forget that the event ever happened, or at least I will forget about it until the next time I am hard up for material.

posted by Big D @ 2:20 PM