2004 World Series Preview
So, that’s that. The Cardinals and Red Sox will meet for the 2004 World Series starting tomorrow, in Fenway.
That still doesn’t sound right. I keep waiting to hear that George Steinbrenner has hired a lawyer to contest Roger Clemens’ Houston contract, using some logic like “He said he was retiring as a Yankee, but I saw him pitch last night, and since the Yankees obviously weren’t playing last night, he must have lied! The entire season should be replayed, with Clemens in either a Yankee uniform or no uniform at all…” or something like that. Or perhaps that, due to the rainout of Game 3, the Red Sox should forfeit because their owners did not want to go the extra mile for their fans and build a retractable roof stadium, thereby causing the Yankees to lose an extra day and wear their pitching staff down to the point of being useless.
I’m a bit more able to put words together and actually form a thought, or maybe, if you’re lucky, a full sentence. But let’s not push it.
It’s amazing, today’s the off day, the workout day, the rest day, so naturally everyone is using the time to talk about… The Yankees? Or more accurately, whom George Steinbrenner will axe first. Even Boston talk-radio seems fixated on who gets canned first. Personally, I don’t think anyone gets canned – maybe he “lets” Willie Randolph go coach the Mets and that will be enough of a sign. But he can’t get rid of Cashman, and if George fires Torre then the Boss come out looking bad in the deal. Mel Stottlemyre? If Mel goes, Joe goes, and George can’t have that.
So Steinbrenner is left to acquire every bit of talent available this year (Imagine, if you will, an infield of A-Rod, Jeter, Delgado, and either Soriano or Nomar at second, with an outfield of Matsui, Beltran and Sheffield. Hell, he might pick up Sammy Sosa as a bat off the bench in case Jason Giambi’s “parasites” come back…), meaning that just about anyone in baseball without a contract or in contract limbo (Sosa, Randy Johnson) is fair game for the Yanks.
But I’m not here to worry about next year. I’m here to give you one man’s insights into the LCS’ (let’s be honest, I only really watched one), and the upcoming World Series.
Imagine, if you will, that you are a Red Sox fan (please don’t start rioting in Kenmore or complaining incessantly just yet…). Imagine that after Game 3 of the ALCS, you swore off baseball. You refused to watch games or highlights, and every time someone came to you and started talking about the Sox you just covered your ears and walked away. Or maybe you even went into the woods for the next four days to get away from it all. Imagine now that you’re walking in your office on Thursday morning and overhear that the impossible has happened. That the Red Sox came back to complete the greatest 4-game turnaround in history. Would this immediately throw you into therapy for the rest of your life? I vote yes. I’m contemplating therapy just for watching this entire thing.
I had planned to visit friends in New Jersey for the Halloween weekend, plans that were made before the playoffs even started. Now, I’m hoping the series is over in four or five - otherwise I’m going to have to cancel and go another time. No way in hell I’m NOT in Boston if there’s a game six or seven. Of course, the last three Sox playoff games that I’ve been in Boston for (Games 3 & 7 of the ’03 ALCS and game 3 of the ’04 ALCS) didn’t end up so good for Boston. Good God, can you even imagine a World Series Game 7 in Fenway Park, on HALLOWEEN? The only way that script is better is if the Astros had won rather than the Cards, because we would have probably gotten Clemens vs. either Pedro or Schilling. Now THAT would have been apocalyptic…
I still haven’t finished reading the IM that I got from my boy Tex at some point after the Cardinals won last night. Tex and I had a long conversation yesterday about who he should cheer for if it was Astros / Red Sox. His decision was difficult only in that even though he’s from Texas, he was never a baseball fan until he started college in Boston and met the rabid Sox fans in the area (i.e. ME). Then he started cheering for the Astros. Guess that decision is made a bit easier now. Anyway, he sent me about a 40 line IM today, the highlight of which (or at least of the parts that I read) was his line bemoaning the fact that we now have a Communist World Series – Red Sox vs. Red birds. Nice work Tex.
I was cheering for the 'Stros too, mostly because I had predicted Sox/Astros back in February, but also because I liked the matchup more and I would have enjoyed Clemens in Fenway one last time. And yes, that was the same article in which I predicted the Royals would win the AL Central and that the Cubs, Giants and Phillies would be the other three NL playoff teams. At least I got the Sox over the Angels in the ALDS right…
So into the matchups we go, quickly, before I pick the NFL games for the week (Sunday is gonna be fun. Pats extend the streak, Sox go up 2-0 in the Series, I don’t move from my couch for 12 straight hours).
Pitching:
Boston:
Starters: Wakefield, Schilling, Pedro, Lowe
Bullpen: Arroyo, Timlin, Embree, Mendoza, Myers, Leskanic, Foulke
St. Louis:
Starters: Williams, Marquis, Morris, Suppan
Bullpen: Calero, Haren, Tavarez, King, Isringhausen
Edge: Boston
Boston has a major edge in starters, even with Schilling’s gimpy ankle and the unpredictability of Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball. The Cardinals’ starting rotation is made of up four guys who between them had one 20-win season ever (Morris, 22-8 in ’01). Their best pitcher, Chris Carpenter, isn’t available. By contrast, the Red Sox are throwing out two guys who are in the Cy Young debate this year, along with a third who was in the conversation two years ago and another who would have been the '03 ALCS MVP if not for some guy named Boone. Their starters have six 20-win seasons (1 for Lowe, 2 for Petey, 3 for Schill). And the Red Sox bullpen has been lights out for four straight games. Boston gets the nod.
Lineup:
Boston: Damon, Bellhorn, Manny, Papi, Millar, Varitek, Nixon, Mueller, Cabrera
St. Louis: Renteria, Walker, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Sanders, Womack, Matheny, (pitcher or
Cedeno at DH)
Edge: Push
The Sox scored almost 100 more runs than St. Louis in the regular season, but that means NOTHING once David Ortiz gets put at first and the pitchers have to hit. Don’t forget, Wake, Schilling and Petey all played in the NL to start their careers, so they have some experience handling the bat. But there is nothing that scares me more than the thought of Albert Pujols and the thunderstick he carries around that he calls a “bat”, flicking knuckleball lightning bolts around Fenway Park or, even worse, through the Green Monster. I really can’t imagine Manny playing The Wall with Pujols (or Rolen, Edmonds, Walker, Sanders or Renteria for that matter) batting and shooting seeds his way. That will be ugly.
Result:
Boston in 6. The city explodes, there are roughly 15,000 arrests in and around Kenmore Square, hopefully no one will be killed this time (that girl was from the college I graduated from… Scary – I almost went into town…), and there is much joy, jubilation, and drinking to be had at Boston University, Northeastern, MIT, Harvard, Emerson, Suffolk, Emmanuel, etc, etc, etc. Boston College isn’t quite sure why everyone is so happy, but they never really need an excuse to drink, so they join the celebration.
So that’s that. Let’s move on to football and get me away from baseball before I write another 10,000-word column. I did well last week, 11-3, making me a respectable 50-36-2 for the year. I also found a way to win my office pool, again, at 11-3. I won a double tiebreaker with the high-scoring Monday Night game (Thank you Adam Archuleta). Almost ridiculously now, I’ve won 4 of 6 weeks outright, and I’m still in 3rd place overall, 2 games out. The player in first has won only one week, while the guy second place has yet to win a week, finishing second for the first time last week. See, this is why I hate math…
DOLPHINS (+6) over Rams: St. Louis is lucky to be coming into this game off of a win. Tampa Bay played them tough all night long and the Rams needed a 93-yard fumble recovery TD to get past the lowly Bucs. Miami has an even tougher defense, and as the Patriots proved in 2001, the way to beat the Rams is to hit them, HARD. Besides, St. Louis will be a bit preoccupied with bigger things… like the Patriots in 2 weeks after the bye.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Titans: With Randy Moss, this game is a blowout. I’m talking like a 38-13 blowout, like a game that Daunte puts up 480 and 5TD’s, and the Titans leave Minnesota like just about every other team has this year, thinking about “How is Culpepper not called the best in the game?” But without Randy Moss, it’s just another garden-variety 28-17 Vikings win, where Daunte only puts up 330 and 3TD’s.
GIANTS (-6.5) over Lions: Detroit doesn’t have the offense (32nd, last in the league) OR the defense (29th, pretty bad too) to compete with the G’nts (7th and 16th, respectively). Look out for Kurt Warner, and DEFINITELY look out for Tiki Barber. If I didn’t have two better matchups, I’d be starting Amani Toomer in a fantasy league, but my other receivers are facing 2 of the only 3 defenses worse than Detroit (Jerry Porter vs. NO and Drew Bennett vs. MINN).
Bears (+7) over BUCS: How bad do you have to be for the 1-5 Buccaneers to be favorites against you? This is another game where one team (TB) is rated higher in overall offense and defense, but the Bears have a higher points-scored average and a lower points-against. Just weird, that’s all I’m saying.
Chargers (+3) over PANTHERS: Wow, just six week ago this pick would have been a joke. Now, Carolina is 1-4, 0-2 at home, and the Chargers are putting up points on EVERYBODY. Something’s gotta give, and I’m betting it’s not the offense.
Bills (-5.5) over RAVENS: This could EASILY end up as a 3-0 final score. The 27th and 30th ranked offenses in football right now battle the 8th and 6th defenses. It’s almost not fair. And as if Baltimore’s 30th ranked offense wasn’t in enough trouble, they don’t have Jamal Lewis for he next two weeks. No one is watching this.
Eagles (-7) over BROWNS: “Why is that line so low?” I was asked the other day. Simple, Cleveland hasn’t lost at home. The Dawg Pound is back in full effect, and this week is actually going to be a challenge for Philly. Stunningly, Cleveland’s defense is ranked higher than the Eagles’ (13th to 17th), but the offenses, well there’s no comparison (6th to 23rd). Philly, but maybe not by double-digits…
COLTS (-9) over Jaguars: The Jags’ win last week was heroic for Byron Leftwich. This week, he won’t have any trouble hitting open receivers. Too bad Peyton Manning won’t either. And yes, I’m starting Fred Taylor in one league, and Leftwich vs. Colts over Hasselbeck vs. Arizona.
Falcons (+3.5) over CHIEFS: This is ludicrous. The Falcons are 5-1, the Chiefs are 1-4. HOW ARE THEY FAVORITES?! I know that Atlanta hasn’t looked impressive in their wins, but wins are wins, and losses are losses. KC still can’t stop anyone, and Atlanta has the single best athlete in the NFL. This makes no sense at all.
PATRIOTS (-6) over J-e-t-s: Ahh, here it is. My game of the week. This is going to take awhile. First, a fun little number for you. The Red Sox Game 7 win drew a bigger television rating in the Boston area (50.6, that’s asinine) than either of the Patriots’ Super Bowl victories in the same viewing area. Wow. And a better fact for you. The last time the Patriots lost at home was to these Jets on December 22nd… 2002 - 12 regular season (1 in ’02, 8 in ’03, and 3 this year) and two playoff games ago. Now THAT’S a number. Anyway, for this game: The Pats’ defense is solid, although I think Curtis Martin will have another big day. He always plays well against New England (let’s face it – he plays well against everyone. The guy’s a Hall-of-Famer, and the Pats made a serious mistake letting him go). New England will try to force Chad Pennington to beat them, which might be a mistake. The Jets’ D-line is good, but not great against the run, so I think Corey Dillon might go big. Essentially, the defenses are going to force one player to beat them – Brady and Pennington. Sorry Jets fans, but I’m taking Tom in that matchup every time.
Cardinals (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS: Jerry Rice for a conditional 7th round pick. Jerry Rice for a conditional 7th round pick. Jerry Rice for a conditional 7th round pick. Jerry Rice for a conditional 7th round pick? How did this happen?! The greatest receiver ever to play in the NFL, and he’s traded for a conditional 7th round pick? I know he’s 42, but you’ve gotta think the Raiders could’ve gotten at least a solid 3rd or 4th-rounder out of this. He’s Jerry Freakin’ Rice! Seahawks can't win this game, it would violate everything that is good and fair.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Cowboys: Yes, Green Bay does have the 3rd rated offense, behind Minnesota and Dallas. But Green Bay actually has a defense to go with that offense, albeit a middle-of-the-pack defense (21st). Bill Parcells can’t rely on Vinny Testaverde much longer, although I think Vinny goes off against this G-Bay secondary. He’s going to have to press Drew Henson into action and let this season go. In the NFC East, he’s already more or less done.
Saints (+3) over RAIDERS: Jerry Rice for a cond – sorry, still not over that. This is just a classic “bad karma” game. No way in hell the Raiders pull this one off, not after dumping Rice. Plus, the Saints have been embarrassed for a couple of weeks now – they need some redemption, and what better place than the Black Hole?
Broncos (-6) over BENGALS: Think when ABC bought this game for MNF they were expecting to get a matchup of the 5th best offense and the BEST defense (Denver) versus the 25th best offense and the 26th best D? Me either.
Recap: DOLPHINS / VIKINGS / GIANTS / Bears / Chargers / Bills / Eagles / COLTS / Falcons / PATRIOTS / Seahawks / PACKERS / Saints / Broncos
One last thing. Driving home from work yesterday, I caught a song on the radio that I hadn’t heard in awhile. I was a big Smashing Pumpkins fan back in the day (1995ish, you know, ancient history). Anyway, on the radio, they played “Tonight, Tonight”, and I listened to the lyrics in a whole different way. Keep in mind, I was still floating over the Sox yesterday… Well, I’m officially nominating this song as my theme song for the 2004 Sox (with all due respect to the Dropkicks and “Tessie”). Some of the lyrics don’t apply, but I mean, wow…
"Tonight, Tonight"
Time is never time at all
You can never ever leave without leaving a piece of youth
And our lives are forever changed
We will never be the same
The more you change the less you feel
Believe, believe in me, believe
That life can change, that you're not stuck in vain
We're not the same, we're different tonight
Tonight, so bright
Tonight
And you know you're never sure
But you’re sure you could be right
If you held yourself up to the light
And the embers never fade in your city by the lake
The place where you were born
Believe, believe in me, believe
In the resolute urgency of now
And if you believe there's not a chance tonight
Tonight, so bright
Tonight
We'll crucify the insincere tonight
We'll make things right, we'll feel it all tonight
We'll find a way to offer up the night tonight
The indescribable moments of your life tonight
The impossible is possible tonight
Believe in me as I believe in you, tonight
Until next week (or maybe after the first couple games of the Series)…
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM
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