2007 Rants & Ranks - Week 13(ish) & Picks (Part Two)
Well, awful glad I waited until after last night's Cowboys/Packers game before jumping on and trying to setup the weekly ranks. Makes things a little bit clearer for me.
Since I haven't
done this in awhile, there's a chance I might be a little rusty with these rankings. Are the Patriots still good? Are the Dolphins still bad? OK, I guess everything is normal...
The Fave 5
1. New England (11-0): Even though they got a bit of a scare last week against the Eagles, they're still the clear-cut, undisputed, don't even think about mentioning another team in the same sentence, Number 1 team in the NFL. By the way - had I known that Donovan McNabb would be sitting and AJ Feeley would play last week, there's no way I would have taken the Pats to cover 24 points. I firmly believe that Donovan McNabb is actually
bad for the Eagles at this point.
2. Dallas (11-1): Can't argue with the numbers - althought their passing defense might be a little suspect (20th in the league), their rushing defense, and both rushing & passing offense are all no worse than 11th. If Brett Favre misses any chunk of time, Dallas' path to Super Bowl XLIII looks pretty clear.
3. Indianapolis (9-2): I still think they're the biggest threat to the Patriots' run at history. Yet another Pats/Colts AFC Championship Game could either be the worst thing for the NFL, or the best thing we've ever seen as fans. If Indy's healthy, I'm leaning towards the latter.
4. Green Bay (10-2): ...Pending the status of #4. For as good as Aaron Rodgers looked after Favre went down last night, let's not forget that he was playing the 20th ranked passing defense in the league. Not to mention, the Packers' defense looked overmatched most of the night - although a couple crucial calls going the other way could have made all the difference.
5. Pittsburgh (8-3): I was on vacation when it happened, so I didn't get to treat this with the proper reaction, but... uh... HOW THE HELL DID THEY LOSE TO THE JETS? Good God - that's 100% inexcuseable! Arizona - OK, they had the ex-coordinators factor. Denver - The Broncos
always play well on Monday Night. But
THE JETS? That loss did more to reassure me that the Patriots will have an undefeated regular season than any Patriots' win.
Others receiving votes: Cleveland (If Romeo Crennel isn't the coach of the year, then there is absolutely NO sense to the voting process - and that's coming from an unabashed Patriots' fan), Jacksonville (Gonna be a fun game to watch Sunday), Tampa Bay (Abaolutely stunning that they're the 3rd best team in the NFC right now)
The Foul 5
5. Oakland (3-8): I'll keep saying it until it happens - at what point so they let JaMarcus Russell step on the field and get some game action? I know they're technically not eliminated - 3 games back in the division with 5 to play - but is there really
any chance they leapfrog three other teams?
4. NY Jets (2-9): Of any team in this half of the list, they've got the single best "quality" win. See #5 in "The Fave 5" for more information...
3. San Francisco (3-8): So, if the Jets and Rams manage to sneak out a couple more wins, and the Niners finish at 3-13, do the Patriots take Darren McFadden with the #2 overall pick in neat year's draft? Imagine that backfield for a second or three...
2. St. Louis (2-9): Just when they started to look competant on offense over the past few weeks, Marc Bulger gets hurt. Figures. Guess I'll be sitting Torry Holt & Steven Jackson for this weeks' games. Or at least Holt - Jackson still might be a viable option.
1. Miami (0-11): Not sure if this says more about the hard luck Miami has endured this year, or just how bad the Jets are; Miami -
winless Miami, mind you - is a one-point favorite over the Jets - the
two-win Jets, mind you - this weekend. Wow.
And that leads nicely into an abridged version of this week's picks - limited commentary except where necessary. A solid 9-7 last week to push up to 86-82-11 for the '07 season, though I'm tempted to give myself a push on the Patriots/Eagles pick with the late injury information... nah.
By the way - I noticed that I screwed up, so for the past few weeks my picks have had the wrong title. Basically, I
picked Week 9, then I
picked Week 10 but called it Week 9 in the title, then just kept going one week behind. Whatever. It's fixed now. I'm sure nobody cares. Just putting it out there.
This weeks picks, home teams in CAPS, and lines from
Bodog.com and accurate as of 5:45pm Friday.
Falcons (+3.5) over RAMS: Harrington/Leftwich on the road, or Gus Frerotte at all. It's decisions like this that keep gamblers up at night, or that make us rethink our choices in life.
REDSKINS (-6) over Bills: Too much emotion.
VIKINGS (-4) over Lions: Lions on the road... not making
that mistake again.
Texans (+4) over TITANS: Gut feeling.
Jaguars (+7) over COLTS: When was the last time these two played a game that
wasn't close?
DOLPHINS (-1) over Jets: Finally.
Chargers (-6) over CHIEFS: Let's see Kolby Smith do that against San Diego...
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES: Donovan's back. Fans boo him off the field by halftime.
49ers (+3) over PANTHERS: Flip a coin - it's a good a method as any with this one.
Browns (-1) over CARDINALS: Line makes
zero sense to me.
Broncos (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Could turn into a shootout - at least one team has a legitimate quarterback.
Bucs (+3.5) over SAINTS: Hmmm... OK. Watch out for Galloway, Hilliard, Graham... pretty much any Tampa Bay offensive player.
BEARS (+2) over Giants: Too many injuries for NY, too much mini-momentum for Chicago.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals: Could be an ice storm in Pittsburgh this weekend... let's see how the turf here looks after that.
Patriots @ Ravens: This line is at 21 points right now. In just about any other situation, I'd take the Pats and not even think twice. But after the 24-point spread (which actually climbed to 26 after McNabb was ruled out), and the subsequent 3-point game, I'm rethinking this. In fact, let's do this - take the Pats' money line and the Ravens (+21). It's feeling like a 14-17 point game.
By the way, scary non-parity NFL thought of the day: Not only have the Pats already become the only team to clinch their division, but with any combination of two more Patriots' wins and two losses by Indy and one loss by both the Steelers & Jaguars, they clinch the #1 overall seed in the AFC. So, theoretically, by next week. Yikes.
RECAP: Falcons / REDSKINS / VIKINGS / Texans / Jaguars / DOLPHINS / Chargers / Seahawks / 49ers / Browns / Broncos / Bucs / BEARS / STEELERS / PatriotsThat's it. Back next week. Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap
2007 NFL Picks - Week 13 (Part One)
Less than two and a half hours before kickoff, I'm coming to you with the most up to date lines for tonight's games. And it has
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the fact that the NFL has completely screwed up my posting schedule by having weekly Thursday games. I understand the Thanksgiving Day game. It's tradition. It's an American Institution. Blah blah blah... But why this week? Or next? Just because these two teams played last week, there's no reason they can't play Sunday.
Sorry, I'm just venting a little.
Also, the Thursday game messes up the weekly Rants & Ranks post, so that is coming tomorrow. At least we'll have some clarity on who the best team in the NFC is.
So without further ado (and by "ado", I mean "endless bitching and whining about inane topics that don't even involve the fact that 85% of America isn't even
eligible to watch tonight's game...") here's tonight's pick:
Packers (+7) over COWBOYS: I think the Cowboys get exposed tonight. Brett Favre will probably pass for about 350, 3 TDs and maybe a garbage pick. Dallas' pass defense is just that bad. Green Bay's defense has been better than advertised this season, and if there's one thing I've learned over the past four years of picking games it's this: There is NO REASON to ever bet against Brett Favre in a Prime Time game. None. He could be playing 1 vs. 11 (and for the last few years he has been), and I'd still take him to cover.
Back tomorrow with Rants, Ranks, and the rest of the picks.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week 11 (Part Two)
Banner day yesterday - a solid 2 out of 3! Hey, 2 outta 3 got me through college - it's certainly good enough for me in weekly picks. Let's see if we can get 2-for-3 the rest of the season!
A solid 10-5-1
last week to setup a nice run for the final five weeks of the season (wow, that looks suspiciously like... 2-out-of-3!), moves the overall record for the year to 75-74-11. Add in the
Thanksgiving Day picks, and we're rollin' baby - 77-75-11!
Onto this week's picks. Home teams in CAPS, lines from
Bodog.com and accurate as of 4:45pm Friday afternoon.
Titans (-1.5) over BENGALS: Very simply, the Titans are a playoff team. The Bengals look headed for a top-8 draft pick this season. Even after the poor showing the Titans had last week (way to really step up there on a national stage boys...), they should be able to handle the lowly Bengals.
JAGUARS (8.5) over Bills: Poor Buffalo. They looked like they were on a mission just a couple weeks ago, then they lost their only real threat on offense in Marshawn Lynch (one week after I traded him away in my big fantasy league, I might add...). Then they had themisfortune of running into a rested Patriots' team the week after the bye. Without Lynch again this week, they don't stand a chance of covering this line.
CHIEFS (-6) over Raiders: Tough to see Priest Holmes be forced out of the league after only two weeks back in the game. Well, tough unless you're like me and were able to trade him just before last week's games (straight up for a #1 QB, no less!). I'm not sure who's going tobe running the ball for the Chiefs this week, but against the Raiders, it really shouldn't matter all that much.
BROWNS (-3.5) over Texans: I'm actually a little torn on this one. The Texans are getting healthy at the right time, getting Matt Schaub & Andre Johnson back even though they're relying on Ron Dayne to run the ball. But the Browns might actually have the juice to pull off some type of miraculous Wild Card run this season, and to do it, they'll need to win games like this one.
Seahawks (-3) over RAMS: This line has been pulled from just about every major sportsbook, but at last look it was hovering around three. Unless the Seahawks lose both Matt Hasselbeck
and Shaun Alexander, they should be able to win and cover.
GIANTS (-7) over Vikings: Has anyone seen Plaxico Burress? I could've sworn he was just here like three weeks ago, now I can't seem to find him. If he's not back this week against the Vikes' deplorable passing defense, he may never return.
Saints (-3) over PANTHERS: Wow, Carolina looks awful. Not that the Saints look like world-beaters, but they've got to be able to win and cover this line, right? If not, we might as well just hand the division to the Bucs right now. By the way - look for Steve Smith to have a nice game against Jason David - Andre Johnson
torched him last week. Did I mention I also traded for Johnson before the game? God I look like a genius...
BUCS (-3) over Redskins: Hmmm. This is another tough call. The Bucs have looked good this year, doing jujst enough to win games, and with that division they're pretty much on cruise control through December. The Skins still have a legitimate shot at a Wild Card berth, but they'll need to get hot in a hurry.
49ers (+11) over CARDINALS: No idea. 11-points just seems like a ridiculous amount to give up when you're depending on the Arizona Cardinals. Even if it is the Niners offense. Oh by the way - I'd take the under (38) in this one. Just a hunch.
Broncos (+1) over BEARS: Sorry - the Bears lost to the Seahawks and didn't even keep it close. They've lost all form of respect from me. I don't care if they're playing a home game in December - they're not good enough to be favored over any AFC Teams whose names don't include "Miami" or "Dolphins". Even the Jets.
CHARGERS (-10) over Ravens: I don't feel good at all about giving up 10 points to the Ravens, especially when Philip Rivers is the quarterback I'm betting on. But it could be worse. I could be giving up...
PATRIOTS (-24) over Eagles: 24 points?!?! That's a joke, right? That's a friggin' college football line, a Michigan vs. Appalachin State line, a USC/Stanford line, ah... uh oh. Um... are we sure Donovan McNabb's not playing in this game? Do we have that in writing? I'll be honest with you - this might be the first week I take the Patriots and am actually nervous about them covering the spread.
STEELERS (-16.5) over Dolphins: Nice Monday Night game for all of America outside of Pittsburgh & Miami. No reason to watch past the first quarter, so we can all go to bed at a reasonable hour after the first day back from work following the holiday.
RECAP: Titans / JAGUARS / CHIEFS / BROWNS / Seahawks / GIANTS / Saints / BUCS / 49ers / Broncos / CHARGERS / PATRIOTS / STEELERSAnd on that note, I hope you all had a good holiday and have a good weekend. I'll be spending mine making the 12-hour drive back to Pittsburgh for work Monday morning.
I can't even begin to describe how much I am hating that idea already.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL - Week 11 Picks (Part one)
My apologies for the lack of a Rants & Ranks post this week. I was a little preoccupied. I was in Vegas. Probably not a good idea, after the week I had following blowing out a tire on my car. In fact, I blame that single event for screwing me up totally. I'll bring a couple stories from the trip to the table later in the week.
Real quick, before I go gorge on turkey and all the fixings, the picks for today's games:
Packers (-4) over LIONS: I'm quickly losing faith in the Lions and Jon Kitna's preseason 10-win prediction. They should still be good for 8, maybe 9. But 10 looks tougher and tougher. P.S. The Packers are pretty good right now.
COWBOYS (-14.5) over Jets: Talk about a letdown game. The Jets manage to pick off the Steelers, then get rewarded with a Thanksgiving Day, short week, road game, facing the second best team in the NFC and third best in the NFL (see how I'm working those missing ranks in here...). In other news, maybe 4-4 isn't out of the question for Kellen Clemens. By the way - I feel a lot better about a tease here than the full 14.5. Feels like a 13-point Dallas win to me.
FALCONS (+13) over Colts: I said it last week, I'll repeat it today - I'm not taking the Colts to cover a big line until I see all their weapons back on the field. They don't have the pieces on offense to generate quick scores, and they don't have the pieces on defense to force opposing teams into short three-and-out situations to hold their score down. 13 points, even to the Falcons, is too much.
RECAP: Packers / COWBOYS / FALCONSBack Friday with the Sunday picks.
Lata
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
Week 11 Picks
Early picks this week everybody. Tired of putting up the picks late Friday afternoon and having people e-mail me to complain that they didn't read them in time. Not that my picks are stellar this year - I think people are pissed once they realize we picked the same way and they're about to lose money.
Anyway, after my back to back runs of 9-4 in Week 8 and 8-5 in Week 9, I cam crashing back to Earth last weekend with a 6-8-1 showing. I was hoping for 8-6-1 to get to .500, but it didn't quite happen - the numbers on teh year currently sit at 65-69-10. Not dead yet, but with only 7 weeks left in the season, I'm not exactly sitting pretty either.
Maybe I'll just bet money lines from now on. Probably a whole lot easier anyway.
Onto this week's numbers - as always, lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 9am Thursday. Home teams are in CAPS.
Raiders (+5.5) over VIKINGS: So, the Vikings get blown away last week, suffering only the third shutout of the season (to the Packers no less!) and this week they're giving five and a half while still not having a viable quarterback or running back? How bad does Vegas think Oakland is?
EAGLES (-10.5) over Dolphins: I'm actually kind of interested to see this kid Beck in Miami. Considering that there really isn't much competition for the Patriots in the AFC East for the next couple of seasons, I'd like to see what they'll be up against in about 2011.
JAGUARS (-3) over Chargers: I can't make sense of the Chargers, and apparantely neither can Vegas. They're giving the Jags the customary 3-point homefield advantage, and nothing else. If the Chargers play like they did in the first half last week, this this is a major notch in San Diego's belt. But if they play like the second half against the Colts, the Jaguars will be atop the AFC South at the end of the day.
Browns (-3) over RAVENS: If the Ravens can't put up points on the Bengals defense, there's no way they're hanging in this game. The Browns are for real people, and you have no idea how weird it is to type that.
TEXANS (pk) over Saints: The Texans get Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson back for this game, just in time to light up the Saints bottom-feeding pass defense. I should know - I just traded for both of them this week.
Bucs (-3) over FALCONS: I know the Birds are making a push toward the top of the NFC South (?!?!), but the Bucs are stil lthe best team in that division. I think they come out fast and put this game away early. But it's the NFC - a 7-9 record for the Falcons should have them in line for a Wild Card...
Cardinals (+3.5) over BENGALS: I've seen nothing at all to make me think the Bengals should be favored the rest of this season. The defense is a seive. The offense had to settle for seven field goals last week against a vastly overrated Baltimore defensive unit. The Bengals are just plain bad.
LIONS (-3) over Giants: Only because the Lions are the home team. By the way - I played poker last week with a couple guys from Detroit (don't ask about the results... I still haven't stopped shaking). Now I understand why the Lions were underdogs last week - they are a completely different team on the road.
PACKERS (-10) over Panthers: Do we know who's starting for the Panthers yet? My point exactly...
Chiefs (+15.5) over COLTS: I know it's Brodie Croyle's first start. I know the game is in Indianapolis, and I know the Chiefs will probably have 5-8 false start penalties. But I also know the Colts are without their best receiver and best defensive lineman, and that the Chiefs should be able to run the ball pretty well and control the clock. If that's the case, the Colts won't have enough time on offense to build up a 16-point lead.
Steelers (-10) over JETS: No reason for this line to be under 14. Think Big Ben's had a nice run the past couple of weeks? Wait until this week and next when he gets the Jets and Dolphins.
Rams (-3) over 49ERS: How bad is it for San Francisco? St. Louis just won their first game of the year, and really the only game in which they've looked competetive for 60 minutes, and now they're a three point favorite on the road for a division game. Ouch.
Bears (+6) over SEAHAWKS: I'm not convinced about Seattle's abilities or Chicago's futility. I know Rex Grossman's back under center - maybe this time he wakes up and realizes how to be an NFL quarterback.
COWBOYS (-11) over Redskins: I was all set to take the Redskins and the Cowboys' money line. Even had the whole thing written out here. Then I remembered Sean Taylor is out, and there is nobody in the Washington secondary to slow down Terrell Owens and impede his path to dancing on the star.
Patriots (-16) over BILLS: If Marshawn Lynch was playing, I'd take the Bills to cover this line. But with the Pats' defense knowing they can force J.P. Losman to beat them... well, let's just say I don't see that happening.
Titans (+2) over BRONCOS: For as much as Denver loves to perform in prime time, nationally televised games... uh - so does Vince Young.
RECAP: Radiers / EAGLES / JAGUARS / Browns / TEXANS / Bucs / Cardinals / LIONS / PACKERS / Chiefs / Steelers / Rams / Bears / COWBOYS / Patriots / Titans
That's it. Back again next week with the Ranks. And maybe a good story or two...
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
Week 10 Rants & Ranks
Well, that's certainly the last time I
use photographic evidence to make a point on this page. Looks like, yet again, the oddsmakers have proven me wrong. I've said it before - that's why they
keep building casinos in the desert.
Also, I completely neglected to address a comment from my
Week 9 Picks post, regarding that little... "incident" with the Patriots and the camera back in September. The comment asked for my take on
this post on a Steelers' football blog.
My take? I agree 100%. In fact, I said the same thing in the comments section of
Shanoff's page sometime around week 3. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Bill Belichick intentionally got himself in trouble to give his players an axe to grind all season long. This is a team that historically needs a reason to feel disrespected.
In 2001, it was easy. In 2002, they were complacent and missed the playoffs, giving them all the fuel they needed in '03. And in '04, they galvanized around the mantra of "We're all just a bunch of 4th and 5th round guys", in reference to their Super Bowl opponent Philadelphia Eagles, and their defensive backfield of four #1 picks.
This year, they were annointed champions before the opening coin flip in the preseason. Not a single person was saying a negative word about them. So they needed something. And if it took making his players listen to a full season of "you only win because you cheat", followed immediately by "stop bludgeoning us to death when we're down by 40 points", then so be it.
If it helps his team win, Belichick will do it. Pats fans all knew it for awhile; now the rest of the world does.
OK, enough of that. Onto the Rants & Ranks following Week 10's action.
The Fave 5
1. New England (9-0): I will admit, I'm lifting this 100% from Peter King's
Monday Morning QB section printed yesterday, because it is an accurate representation of how most Boston fans feel right now: "Bye Week Thought of the Week: Since Oct. 18, the Hub's baseball, basketball and football teams (Sox, Celts, Pats) are 15-0." The part that Peter left out, and that makes me smile just as much, is that the only "big" teams to lose a game in that time span? The Bruins and BC football.
2. Pittsburgh (7-2): What a ridiculous comeback on Sunday by the Steelers. If they faced Indy today on a neutral field, I don't see any chance that the Colts would come out ahead.
3. Dallas (8-1): Ditto for the Cowboys. The Colts couldn't keep up with them on defense, and Indy's offense couldn't produce enough to keep the score close.
4. Indianapolis (7-2): Tough back to back weeks for Peyton Manning. His team can't keep the lead he helped build against New England, then he has to travel to face the Chargers after they were embarrassed by an inferior NFC team. Think about this - Manning threw
six picks with basically no help on offense, and the Colts still only lost by 2 points on a shanked field goal late.
5. Green Bay (8-1): When you shut down the best rushing team in the league, and your rushing defense is supposed to be one of the worst around... maybe it really is your year.
Others Receiving Votes: Giants (a loss hurts, but at least it was to the best team in the NFC), Lions (That's not the way to prove you're for real Detroit...), Jacksonville (so, can they just plug in any quarterback and continue to win games?)
The Foul 55. Oakland (2-7): When, exactly, do we get to see this kid JaMarcus play a little? When would be the "opportune moment"?
4. St. Louis (1-8): If that offensive line can stay healthy and actually play a few games together the rest of the way, at 1-8 they are -
somehow - not mathematically eliminated from winning the NFC West. And that makes me quite nauseous.
3. NY Jets (1-8): The bye week couldn't possibly have done anything to make them any worse. Maybe they can put together a solid string to close out the season.
2. San Francisco (2-7): Boy, it's a real shame they don't have a #1 pick this year to trade away for enough help to get them back into contention in '08...
1. Miami (0-9): Caller on WEEI's Whiner Line yesterday made a valid point - when they Dolphins finish this season 0-16, who pops the corks on the champagne bottles then?
Others receiving votes: Minnesota (No Peterson, no chance), Baltimore (Time to hang 'em up Steve McNair), Kansas City (remember when the Chiefs actually had a running game?)
That's it for now. back on Friday with the picks, but considering how terrible my weekend was (not just in football, but overall), who know how good this week will turn out.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap
2007 NFL Picks - Week Nine
We've officially reached the halfway point of the NFL Season (yes, I realize technically last week was the halfway point, being Week 9 of a 17 week season... let me finish making my point before you jump all over me). Every NFL Team has played at least eight games, or half of their schedule, and four teams have played nine.
Seems like a logical time for some snap judgements about the first half of the year, as well as some completely unreliable predictions about the final eight weeks of the season.
Looking Back...
... Chicago might have been the biggest fluke Super Bowl team of the last ten years, going back to the '98 Falcons...... If not for the final nine minutes last week, people all over the country would be talking about the Indianapolis Colts as a possible dynasty in the making. As it is, they're already putting out lines on the AFC Title Game Rematch (it's PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Colts if you're interested)...
... You know the league is in full-blown parity mode when not one, not two, but three divisions could be won by an 8-8 team. The NFC South & West, and the AFC West all have division leaders no better than 1-game over .500...... And the other five divisions are led by teams that are 9-0, 7-1, 7-1, 7-1, and 6-2...
... 10 teams are currently at .500 or within one game either way. 10 out of 32. Meaning that if the NFL has it's dream come true, 10 teams will finish at 8-8, and 11 others will finish on one side or another of the line. And that's not entirely impossible...Looking Ahead...
... There's no way the Lions, Chiefs, Panthers, Browns & Titans can remain in their respective division hunts much longer, is there?... On that same note, count me among the group that would love to see Brett Favre reach a Super Bowl this season, if only because he will most likely face New England and see what it feels like to be completely blown away by a far superior team on the biggest stage in sports.
... The AFC Playoffs will feature some combination of New England, Indy, Pittsburgh & San Diego in the top four spots. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion. Hell - The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win next week at Buffalo if the Bills also lose this week, which is pretty sick when you think about it.... Even in the Reggie Bush/Vince Young/Matt Leinart draft class, teams didn't look like as much of a lock for the Number one and two picks as Miami & St. Louis (a combined 0-16) do right now.
... But don't count the 49ers, Falcons, Raiders, Bengals, and - of course - the Jets out of that hunt.
OK, onto this week's picks. I’m riding something of a mini-wave the past two weeks, following up Week 8’s 9-4 showing with a solid 9-5 in Week 9. Though, to be fair, I could give myself for correctly predicting a 4-point Patriots’ win even though I chose to take them to cover a 6-point line. But I won’t.
And how about this – the 9-5 record last week beings me back up to just barely under .500 on the season at 59-61-9. Ignore the fact that I forgot to pick the Steelers/Ravens game on the blog – I’ve given myself credit for the win, since I had money on Pittsburgh (-10). Good enough for me.
Going into these picks, I actually checked lines multiple times during the week instead of once on Wednesday and again when I wrote the post. There’s a logical explanation for it – with the Patriots not playing, I’ve got no virtually guaranteed covers, so I thought I’d actually do my homework for once.
So, here goes. As always, home teams in CAPS, and all lines are from Bodog.com and accurate as of 9pm tonight.
(Click on photo for bigger size)
For only the third time in the history of this blog, I’m providing visual evidence to back up a point. Or, in this case, three points. Click that photo above and note the three lines that I circled on Monday night, just after they were released. Go ahead, I can wait…
Now, compare those to the current lines as of Friday night. Sometimes I wish I made bets early and often to take advantage of the oddsmakers’ mistakes.
Cowboys (-2.5) over GIANTS: The first time these teams met, the Cowboys blew New York completely off the field. Rumors started swirling about Tom Coughlin’s job security on the Giants’ sideline. Since then, New York has gone 6-1, completely decimating opponents with, of all things, a swarming defense. But not this week. Dallas is too strong, and has too many offensive weapons.
Lions (Pk) Over CARDINALS: I’ll be honest, I have absolutely no idea why the Lions aren’t favored by at least 1.5 here. I understand they have the worst defense in the league, and that it will catch up to them eventually. But it’s the Cardinals for Christ’s sake! It’s not like the Lions are traveling to the RCA Dome or the Razor – they’re heading for the desert, to play a 3-5 team!
Colts (-4) over CHARGERS: Wait a second… you’re telling me that I can take the Colts and Joseph Addai over a banged up Chargers team that just allowed almost 300 yards rushing to a rookie, and I only have to give up 4 points? Hmm… lemme think this one over for a second…
Now, before I continue… do any of those lines make sense to you? Does Vegas know something the rest of us don’t? You’ve got the best team in the NFC giving less than a field goal, a 6-2 team as a pick-‘em against a 3-5 team, and the second best team in the NFL (who easily could still be in the argument as the best team) playing against a team that has struggled just to stay at .500. I mean… wow.
As for the rest of the games…
TITANS (-4) over Jaguars: I’ve seen Quinn Gray look halfway decent as a starting QB, and I’ve seen Quinn Gray look like Quinn Gray as a starting QB. Let’s see which one shows up this week, or if the Jags’ simply put David Garrard out there on one and a half legs and hope for the best.
CHIEFS (-3) over Broncos: Can’t judge the Chiefs on last week’s home loss to the Packers. Green Bay is a team of destiny this season. Denver, however, is not. Chiefs win big, and Priest Holmes gives everyone another feel good story for this season.
Bills (-3) over DOLPHINS: At some point this season, Miami has to back into a win, don’t they? Hmmm… do the Dolphins play the Rams in ’07? That’d probably be their best chance.
Browns (+10) over STEELERS: Cleveland’s playing with a lot of confidence right now, and if Romeo Crennel is even half as smart of a coach as I suspect he is, he’s been studying the Steelers/Cardinals game tapes about 19 hours a day this week.
SAINTS (-11.5) over Rams: I can’t believe I’m actually not too worried about laying eleven and a half points to a team like St. Louis. Man they’ve fallen a long way. Even more shocking, I’m voluntarily sitting Torry Holt this week in favor of Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver & Greg Jennings. Perhaps there is a reason I haven’t won a fantasy football league in three seasons.
Falcons (+4) over PANTHERS: At least the Falcons know who their QB is going to be this week. He might not be a world beater, but at least the team has enough faith to hand him the keys to the car.
REDSKINS (-3) over Eagles: The Redskins are one of only two teams with a winning record that have given up more points then they’ve scored (Cleveland’s the other). That’s not going to translate to playoff success, and in that division it might not even translate to the playoffs at all. The Eagles need to get their first division win if they want any type of hope of backing into the second wild card spot. Don’t see it happening this week.
PACKERS (-6) over Vikings: When all you have is one offensive weapon, you’re not supposed to dominate games like the Vikings did last week. I’m still not sure if that speaks more to how great Adrian Peterson is going to be or how terrible the Chargers’ defense currently is, but I do know that the Packers will put ten in the box if they have to and force Minnesota to beat them through the air.
RAVENS (-3.5) over Bengals: Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year square off in what could end up as the ugliest AFC game of the season. Anybody want to make a pick on the over/under for combined turnovers in this game? I’ll set it at 6.5… and almost immediately take the over.
Bears (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Look on the bright side Raiders fans – another season like last year means another chance to complete botch the draft next year…
SEAHAWKS (-10) over 49ers: I listen to all the vitriol and hatred for the Patriots, a team that just three years ago was garnering universal praise for being the new “America’s Team”, for doing it the right way, for embodying team play… then I remember that New England holds the 49ers first round pick this year (currently #8 overall, but almost certain to be a top-5), and I smile.
RECAP: Cowboys / Lions / Colts / TITANS / CHIEFS / Bills / Browns / SAINTS / Falcons / REDSKINS / PACKERS / RAVENS / Bears / SEAHAWKS
Just looking for 8-6 or better this week. No need to be greedy. I‘ll take a .500 record after 10 weeks in today’s NFL.
Hell, it works for 1/3 of the teams themselves. It’s good enough for me.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
Week 9 Rants & Ranks
Man, I've really got to get on the ball with this. Tuesday night, I set up the ol' laptop to write up the weekly Rants & Ranks. Unfortunately I also ended up getting stuck on the phone for an hour, and by the time I hung up, all I could think about was going to sleep. Scratch Tuesday.
Wednesday, I realized that there was nothing on TV (Wednesday nights really suck for TV until "LOST" comes back), so I sat down with my laptop and got ready to start writing. Then I checked e-mails. Then I checked fantasy football teams. Then my roommate came in to "hang out" for awhile. Then it was 10:30 at night, and I still had to shower & shave for work today (where I had to get here by 7am for a class). Scratch Wednesday.
That leaves today, and today only, before tomorrow's weekly picks post. Actually, this might work out better, since injury information is more readily available, and I don't get sucked into thinking about whether or not the Chiefs can survive if LJ is only out for one week.
That said, let's do this...
The Fave 5
1. New England (9-0): I'm not going to sit here and tell you that they decimated the Colts last week. In fact, for three and a half quarters I was preparing responses for the inevitable onslaught of e-mails and text messages if the Patriots didn't manage to make a comeback. But they played it safe, didn't panic, and ground out a victory in one of the most hostile environments on Earth (even before the Colts pipe in crowd noise). That's enough to say that unless they lost three of their final 7 games, I'm keeping them atop the list until the playoffs.
2. Indianapolis (7-1): They were the best team in football for 50 minutes last Sunday. Unfortunately, they needed to do it for all 60. The AFC Title game is going to be awfully fun to watch.
3. Dallas (7-1): Completely, undeniably, emphatically obliterated the Eagles in Philly last night. If they're not in the NFC Title game, and probably the Super Bowl, then something has gone terribly wrong.
4. Pittsburgh (6-2): On a neutral field, right now, the Steelers would most likely crush the Packers, and probably give both the Cowboys and the Colts a hell of a good game. Yes, they lost to Arizona and Denver - Arizona was a fluke loss to old coaches, and Denver was inexcuseable. I'd be surprised if they lost more than two games teh rest of the way.
5. Green Bay (7-1): The only team with a chance to slow down the Cowboys before January. And if you don't think that the Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions is going to be intense, you obviously haven't watched enough NFC North football in your life.
Others receiving votes: Lions (6 wins... they haven't had 6 wins in a full season since dinosaurs roamed the Earth), Titans (can't argue with 6-2, even if nobody knows how they're doing it), Cleveland (just imagine if the Lions & Browns make the playoffs in the same year... the rust belt will be in pandemonium!), Buffalo (4-4 without 2/3 of their season opening "stars" available... that's impressive)
The Foul 5
5. San Francisco (2-6): Just a terrible showing, in every aspect of the game. Atlanta quit on the season sometime in July - there's no reason the 49ers, playing at almost full strength, couldn't have won that game.
4. Cincinnati (2-6): Everyone who had the Bengals pegged for a 10-loss season, raise your hand. If' you're not living in Pittsburgh, Cleveland or Baltimore and your hand is raised, you're lying.
3. NY Jets (1-8): The Kellen Clemens Era kicked off with a solid performance. It was still a loss, but at least he gave it a good effort and put on a strong show. Again - let's see if he leads the Jets to a 4-4 finish to the year. They've already dropped one, and the game @ New England will probably set records for largest loss in NFL history. So 4-2 in the other six... could be tough.
2. Miami (0-8): They didn't lose... they didn't play, but they didn't lose.
1. St. Louis (0-8): Ditto.
Others receiving votes: Atlanta (only escaped the list because they beat another team on it.), Oakland (I can't imagine them beating any team not included in The Foul 5 the rest of the way), Denver (44 points? TO THE LIONS?!?), Philadelphia (Maybe Donoan McNabb is the problem...).
Back tomorrow (late afternoon / early evening) with the weekly picks.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap
2007 NFL Picks - Week Nine
Hallelujah Holy Shit – Where’s the Tylenol? Was that a 9-4 record last week? More importantly – is that a 51-56-9 overall record after ½ of the season (and after being at 35-46-8 just two weeks ago? Maybe things are starting to turn around here folks…
Actually, let’s not get too excited. Although I managed to pick last week’s games at a 9-4 clip, I actually managed to find a way to parlay the Bears, Bucs and 49ers into every single one of my eight bets. Three of my four misses for the week, and they killed me. (Even I wouldn’t voluntarily put money on a game involving the Rams & Browns – that’s just suicide).
So, although it looked good in print, the end results were the same – another losing week. Guh.
But fear not – in my never-ending quest to put up the most accurate numbers and information for you, my loyal reader(s), I’ve waited until after midnight Friday night into Saturday to get the most up-to-date lines before posting. No, it wasn’t just that I completely forgot to post this six hours ago. Had nothing to do with it. I swear.
Whatever. Let’s do this.
As always, lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of… well… now – 12:30am on Saturday morning. Damn I need a hobby.
Home teams in CAPS.
Redskins (-4) over JETS: What a terrible way for Kellen Clemens to get his first NFL start. The team is already toast for the year – at 1-7, they’re 7 games back in the division after 8 games. Now they have to face a Washington defense that was already one of the meanest in the league before they got lit up for 52 points by the Patriots last week. Sean Taylor is going to look to decapitate someone in this game.
Packers (+2) over CHIEFS: Wait a minute… the Packers just went into Mile High, held their own against a middle of the road AFC West opponent, won the game in overtime… and now they’re an underdog again? I can understand the whole “back-to-back road games on a short week” argument… but the Packers actually seem to be halfway decent this year, while the Chiefs are about as confusing a team as exists in the NFL.
Cardinals (+3.5) over BUCS: Three straight road teams to cover. Strange start. Though it could be stranger – I could be picking every single road team to win outright. I’m just not that brave. Or that insane – really, either one applies.
TITANS (-4) over Panthers: I can’t make up my mind about this Titans team – they’ve got a good enough defense to hold every single opponent down when they’re locked in, but their offense is just so inconsistent that they are barely holding on for wins in games they should be winning by 14+. It’s working for them so far – I mean, they are 5-2 – but I can’t see this formula translating to more than 9 wins for the year. In the AFC that won’t get it done.
FALCONS (-3) over 49ers: It’s games like this that make me glad that there are 8 other early games to choose from to follow on the computer or at the bar. If this game doesn’t set offensive production in the NFL back by 20 years, nothing will. Let’s go out on a limb and say that the first team to double-digits wins.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Jaguars: This is a huge game for the Saints. Jacksonville has the second best defense that they’ve see this year, and they’re just about on par with the best defense in Tampa Bay (note the 1-point game between the two last week). If New Orleans can take this one, they’ve got 5 very winnable games in their next six, which should vault them back to the top of the NFC South. Jacksonville is in a tough stretch right now – Indy, @TB, @NO, @Tenn, SD. They’re 1-1 through the first two; if they can come out of that 3-2, they’ll just about clinch a wild card berth.
LIONS (-3) over Broncos: Boy, it’s nice to be able to say things like “I think the Lions have a legitimate shot this week”, and not immediately follow it with a roaring laugh. On the flip side of that… what happened to Denver? Weren’t they supposed to be a sleeper team, with a revamped secondary, a great receiving corps, and the yearly running back du-jour piling up stats?
BILLS (+1.5) over Bengals: I can’t believe I actually feel confident about this pick. Although, I’d feel a hell of a lot better if it wasn’t J.P. Losman under center in Buffalo. With as many poor QB situations as there are in the NFL right now, how has Drew Bledsoe not gotten at least a phone call? I mean, Jeff freakin’ George has gotten a phone call – Drew Bledsoe is at least as good as Jeff George at this point, isn’t he? Christ – Vinny Testaverde is not only playing, but winning football games.
Chargers (-7) over VIKINGS: Let’s see just how good this “new” Chargers team is. It’s almost like someone forgot to tell them the season had started until about Week Five or so.
BROWNS (-1.5) over Seahawks: I’m slowly beginning to dismiss the theory that’s floating around (alright, it’s only floating around this page) that the Seahawks are just playing possum right now and are actually a top-2 team in the NFC. They really haven’t looked that good in a game in about a month; until they look like a team that gives a crap, I’m not backing them.
Patriots @ COLTS: Uh… this one needs a little more space in a minute…
RAIDERS (-3) over Texans: I flipped a coin. Seriously – these are two teams playing some bad football right now. When it comes right down to it, I’m just flipping a coin for games like that. Same goes for the Niners/Falcons pick – two shitty teams playing a meaningless game. Flip a coin, and don’t put a cent on the game.
Cowboys (-3) over EAGLES: This might be the stupidest line of the week. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC, and a top-3 team in the NFL right now. The Eagles have exactly one “good” win on their schedule – the blowout of the Lions in Week 3. Their coach has got to have other things on his mind right now. So they’re the home team with a vicious fan base – that does not mean that they are keeping this game within 3 points. Cowboys, by at least 10.
Now then…
Patriots (-6) @ COLTS: There are so many storylines floating around for this game, it’s ludicrous. The Clash of the Titans. Armageddon. Super Bowl 41-and-a-half. The Patriots punishing every team in their path this year. The Colts getting zero respect as defending champions. The 100% asinine “Good vs. Evil” debate about Tony Dungy vs. Bill Belichick. The weird Daylight Saving Time rules in Indiana (If the Colts were smart about this, they’d book the Patriots’ in hotel in a part of the state that is on Central time, so they’d lose a full hour when DST ends at 2AM Sunday morning – don’t forget to change your clocks!).
Basically what it comes down to is this – these are the two best teams in football, hands down. They are on a completely different plane from every other team. Even though after Sunday one of them will (most likely) have a loss in their record, they are still far better than the other “1-loss” teams in the NFL.
To plagiarize myself from a comment I left earlier this morning over on Shanoff’s blog: “I really see one of two things happening; 1) Pats' in a complete blow-out, payback for the AFC Title game type of situation, with a final in the 41-17 range, or... 2) Very, very close game, the type we'll be talking about and dissecting for a full week, but still Pats 37-35ish... Either way, both defenses are going to be beat up and tired, and look really bad. At least the Pats have a bye next week.”
Actually, that bye scares the crap out of me. Not only because it could kill the Patriots momentum if/when they take care of the Colts this week, but because it could give some of the players something to look forward to before final gun in Indy.
I don’t think it’ll happen, but it could.
But as for what will happen… the Pats will exorcise the demons from last years’ abysmal end to the season, and finish the job they couldn’t quite wrap up back in January. Just one more step on the road to history.
Final Score: Patriots 38, Colts 34
(For the record, I’m giving serious consideration to a parlay involving the Patriots’ money line and the Colts (+6)… I honestly think it could be that close.)
RECAP: Redskins / Packers / Cardinals / TITANS / FALCONS / SAINTS / LIONS / BILLS / Chargers / Browns / RAIDERS / Cowboys / Patriots
Armageddon begins in about 40 hours… I can’t wait.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
