2007 NFL Preview - Part II
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today, the NFC South & East, and AFC West (I’m a writin’ fool!). Click here for Part I of the Preview – NFC West & North.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Carolina Panthers: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Atlanta Falcons: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
Let’s be honest here guys – the Falcons and Michael Vick (and to a lesser extent, Joey Harrington) are the story of this division this season, if not the NFL itself. Everything they do will be chronicled – every loss will be met with “Wonder how it would have turned out with Vick on the field”, every win will bring about talk of a lost season. The thing is, if the team uses the whole Vick situation as motivation, they could really come together and maybe even make a run at the division.
For as great a story as the Saints were last season, they got a lot of bounces in their favor, not to mention at least two or three wins on emotion alone. Their defense played ridiculously far above their heads last season (in ’04 & ’05 they ranked 14th of 16 in the NFC in points allowed – in ’06: 3rd), but the offense is legit. I think they give back a game, maybe two, but still play well enough within the division to make the postseason.
Carolina is a complete enigma. Every season for the past three, I’ve put far too much stock in their defense, and given Jake Delhomme way too much credit. The problem is, their defensive stars can’t stay together on the field long enough to stop any of the league’s better offenses. And even though DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams are a solid backfield tandem (not to mention the best wide receiver in the NFL in Steve Smith), Delhomme isn’t consistent enough to give them a QB threat. And honestly, nobody’s screaming for David Carr to get a start anytime soon…
Finally, Tampa Bay. The fact that their QB options this season consist of a 37 year old playing for his fifth team in as many years, and a 32-year old who retired rather than have to play for the team tells you everything you need to know about the Bucs right now. Their defense really dropped off last year, which was probably more a product of their offensive ineptitude being unable to give the defense a breather on the sidelines between possessions. They’re not scaring anyone this year, though Cadillac Williams might return to his early ’05 form…
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Washington Redskins: ’06 Record (5-11), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
New York Giants: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
People seem to forget that the Eagles managed to go 10-6 and win a playoff game without their franchise QB under center after Week 10. They also managed to go 5-2 to wrap up the season. With Donovan McNabb back (and by all accounts, healthy) there’s no reason to think they can’t at least duplicate those 10 wins in 2007. The defense is still playing at a high level, even with the front office’s decision to cut Jeremiah Trotter last week. And Brian Westbrook continues to produce just about every time he touches the ball. If they can avoid major injuries, they should be a serious threat to the Bears’ NFC supremacy.
The Redskins could be the “surprise” team of ’08 (they’re 20/1 to win the NFC at Bodog.com right now, and 40/1 to win it all). They lost Clinton Portis for most of last season, and Jason Campbell didn’t get a start until Week 11 (they went 5-2 with him under center in the final seven games). Their defense can still give people problems – Sean Taylor is one of the most underrated safeties in the NFL – and in a weak conference, a jump to 9-7 might be enough to get them into the postseason.
I’m not a big fan of the Cowboys’ chances this season. Wade Phillips’ “Let ‘em play” style just seems like it’s going to backfire by about Week 9 or so. I just foresee Terrell Owens finally snapping with the lack of discipline, and I have no idea just how far he’s going to go. There’s probably a 5% chance that he commits homicide on the sidelines this year after Romo misses him on a Go route. If they can hold it together though, Dallas’ defense is still one of the better ones in the league. I just don’t know how much I trust Tony Romo and the Barber/Jones running back combo platter.
And finally, the Giants. I’m trying my hardest not to laugh while writing this part of the preview. I have absolutely zero hope for the Giants to be contenders this season – their offense wasn’t that good last season, and they lost their #1 running back. Their defense wasn’t that good last season, and it got worse this year losing Michael Strahan, Lavar Arrington, and roughly 2/3 of their starting defensive backfield in one preseason game already. Needless to say, they’re staring a top-10 draft pick straight in the face.
AFC West
San Diego: ’06 Record (14-2), ’07 Prediction (12-4)
Denver Broncos: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
Kansas City: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Oakland Raiders: ’06 Record (2-14), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
The Chargers were the class of the NFL during the ’06 regular season, but completely imploded in their first round playoff game. I remember that game well, mostly because my fingers nearly imploded while live blogging the game from a hotel in Orlando, Florida (here’s Part I, here’s Part II. And just for the hell of it, the earlier live blog of the NFC playoff games). As for this season, the downgrade from an offensive minded coach who turtles in the playoffs to a turtle minded coach who gets defensive in the playoffs (wow my head hurts) is probably going to cost them a game or two. Not to mention that LaDanian Tomlinson probably won them at least one game by himself last year – there is no way in hell he repeats the numbers he put up in ’06.
Denver kind of falls into the second spot in this division by default. They have a promising quarterback who, barring injuries, will get a full season to prove why the Broncos traded up to draft him a couple seasons ago. And, as is par for the course, the Broncos have a solid multi-headed monster in the backfield, starting with Travis Henry and Mike Bell, and the receiving corps is still solid all around. Not to mention they probably have the best defensive backfield in the league with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. It probably isn’t enough to overtake the Chargers, but it should be enough to get them into the playoffs.
The Chiefs aren’t nearly the team they were last season, and last season they barely limped into the playoffs anyway before getting smoked by the Colts in the first round. While all the talk is about Larry Johnson’s workload, the focus should be on a depleted offensive line guarding Damon Huard, the newly minted starting quarterback. Not to mention the Chiefs haven’t fielded anything better than a middle of the road defense in a few years (literally – they were 9th of 16 AFC teams in three major defensive categories last season; yards per game, rushing yards per game and points allowed, and 11th in passing yards allowed). They’re a middle of the pack team that caught a good run and a good schedule in ’06 – not this year.
And then, there are the Raiders. A team so inept that their #1 pick – the #1 overall draft pick last year – would rather sit a season by making outrageous contract demands than play for them. A team that looks to be relying on a “mobile” QB coming off of two major knee surgeries in the same season, on the same knee. A team whose “Just Win, Baby!” mantra gets more and more laughable every year. But hey – at least the statistics said they had an above average defense last season. Of course, that’s probably because their offense averaged a ridiculous 10.5 points per game in ’06 – once teams scored twice, they eased off the accelerator knowing they probably didn’t need to do much more for the W. I give them a couple more wins this season, though it’s more out of pity than anything else.
Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFC, NFL, Preview, South, West
2007 NFL Preview - Part I
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go! Today, the NFC West & North.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
San Francisco 49ers: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
St. Louis Rams: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals: ’06 Record (5-11), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
For the third year in a row, the Seahawks look to be largely uncontested in their run to the division title. They’ve got a healthy Shaun Alexander and a (presumably) healthy Matt Hasselbeck on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense was very solid last season, rating in the top-10 in both yards and points per game, though their rushing defense (12th in the NFC at 126.8 ypg)
This year, everyone’s “sleeper” team seems to be the 49ers. I like them; I Think that another year of maturity for Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis can only help them. But their defense (no better than 10th in the conference in any major category) still leaves a lot to be desired. There’s a chance they could be the 2001 Rams – monster offense but no defense – but there’s a better chance that they’re on the outside looking in when the postseason starts.
Speaking of the Rams… This year’s version is very reminiscent of that 2001 team, except these guys have very little chance at reaching the playoffs – let alone the Super Bowl. Their offense is ridiculously strong (how many people realized that Steven Jackson had more yards from scrimmage than LaDanian Tomlinson last season?), with Marc Bulger inking a new contract this season and #1 target Torry Holt healthy as ever. But their defense hasn’t shown any glimpses of keeping other teams off the scoreboard or slowing down an opposing running game, although their pass defense did rank 3rd in the NFC.
And finally, the class of the NFL, the team that nobody wants to play, yes, your Arizona Cardinals. There might not be a franchise in professional sports with a sorrier history than the Cardinals, and yet every season the pundits find something about this team that makes everybody think “this is the year!” Let me tell you something – this is not the year. They’ve rebuilt their offense very nicely, getting Matt Leinart through the draft last season and adding Edgerrin James through free agency what was already the best young receiving corps in the league. But that’s it. There’s no defense. There’s no offensive line. They’ve got four or five players that can make a difference on any given play, and they’re all on one side of the ball. That’s not a formula for success. That’s a formula for another last place finish and high draft pick in April.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: ’06 Record (13-3), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Green Bay Packers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Detroit Lions: ’06 Record (3-13), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
Much like their counterparts atop the NFC West, the Bears have virtually no competition for this division title. Again. In fact, their main challenge throughout the regular season should be to stay atop the overall NFC standings (or close to it) to give themselves the best shot at a first round bye. Well, the main challenge will probably be trying to remain calm every time Rex Grossman takes a five step drop. But with a healthy (if slightly less dominating) defense, and even a mediocre offense, they should be able to lock up the NFC north by about Week 12.
The Bears’ main competition, aside from themselves, looks to be the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota’s offense was, well, weak last season, not ranking in the top half of the conference in any major category, and averaging under 18 points a game. Tarvaris Jackson under center provides them with a good young QB, and a split backfield of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson behind what is shaping up to be the best offensive line in the league should give them plenty of upgraded pop from the offense. The defense was already one of the better, if underrated, units in the NFL last season (61ypg rushing allowed? Are you kidding? Too bad they allowed 238ypg passing…). All they need to do is match last season’s production, and the Vikings could be contending for a playoff berth.
Everyone seems high on the Packers this season, referencing the way they finished ’06 on a four-game winning streak as a sign of good things in ’07. They had a good defense, ranking in the upper half in all major categories except the one that matters – points allowed. Any offense with Brett Favre will always have a chance to contend, not to mention be near the top of the league in most passing categories. But the division is tough, and finishing second last season only ensured them a tougher out-of-division schedule this season. I don’t see them breaking .500 this year.
And then, there are the Lions. I might have to flip-flop on the earlier statement that the Cardinals are the sorriest franchise in all of professional sports – the Lions give them a run for that title just within the NFL. They’ve got tools on offense in Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Kevin Jones & Tatum Bell that most offensive coordinators would kill for. And yet somehow they manage to underachieve every single season. Every year I pencil them in for anywhere from 3-12 wins – this year’s no different. They could put it all together and roll the rest of the league. But more than likely, they’ll get slightly better (they can’t really get worse from a 3-13 season) and still leave Detroit fans feeling completely unfulfilled.
Labels: 2007, NFC, NFL, North, Preview, West
2007 Fantasy Football Preview
(This is just shy of a 3,000 word opus. Do yourself a favor - print it out and take it to the can...)
In advance of the forthcoming annual NFL Preview Post, I give you my annual Fantasy Football post.
I don’t profess to know everything about Fantasy Football. In fact, I’ve never finished higher than 4th in a football league in which every team stayed competitive for the entire season – I finished second in an 8-team league with four guys who quit after Week 4.
I’ve also never had a chance to play in a keeper league, and I’ve never been able to talk my friends into an auction draft. We play a standard league – One quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, a tight end, kicker and team defense, and we use pretty standard NFL.com scoring (not sure if that link will work if you’re not in the league. If not, sorry). The rest of this post is going to be geared around those numbers.
Last season, I gave you LaDanian Tomlinson as the best overall choice at #1. Although I can’t find any written evidence of it in my archives, in 2005 I was all over Shaun Alexander as the man atop the draft board. Of course, I’ve never actually had the #1 pick in a fantasy football league, so I’m usually stuck with the “leftovers” in the 7-10 range. Actually, I’ve only ever had the #1 pick in any fantasy league twice – both in baseball, both in drafts where I was traveling and let the computer auto-pick for me.
Anyway, back to the here and now, and the picks for 2008. There’s some serious pressure to deal with. I mean, the odds of me being right once on anything are pretty steep. Twice in a row? Like predicting a lightning strike or an earthquake. But three times? Completely unheard of. Astronomical. Nearly the same as the chances of seeing David Wells running the Ironman or Kobe Bryant opening a hotel in downtown Denver.
But after much thinking, deliberating, arguing with friends, and probably a few too many alcoholic beverages, I give you this year’s top forty-eight fantasy players, chosen in snake-draft order. I’m not bothering with bye weeks, so if I put two running backs and a star wide receiver with the same bye on one team, obviously you know the drill – I’m a jackass.
Why forty-eight? Since most of us play in twelve team leagues, it’s the first four picks. Usually after four rounds someone in the league will make the first “what the hell is he thinking?” pick (last year it was my buddy Ed taking Reggie Bush in round one, number eleven overall), or there will be a “Dude, he went two rounds ago” moment (that was me in ‘06 with Javon Walker… and me again in ‘05 with Reggie Wayne… at least it was quality players).
Anyway, here goes:
With the first pick in the 2007 Generic Fantasy Football League of America Draft, I suggest you take… Michael Vick. Just kidding.
Round 1:
1. Steven Jackson: 2334 yards from scrimmage last season. 16 TDs, only 4 fumbles. Nine games of 90+ rushing yards. One of the most electric all-around offenses in the league, with a veteran QB, veteran receiving corps to take the pressure off him. And there isn’t a person in the world who would take him over LaDanian Tomlinson with the first overall pick.
2. LaDanian Tomlinson: 2323 yards from scrimmage last season. 31 TDs with only 2 fumbles. And if anyone thinks he’s got any chance to duplicate or surpass those numbers in ’08, please raise your hand and receive the proper mocking. He’ll be good. He’ll probably break 2000 yards from scrimmage; he’ll probably score 20 TDs. But he’s got Norv Turner running the show, and he’s got a first place schedule to contend with. There won’t be a single defense that isn’t amped up to knock he snot out of him. Plus, let’s not forget he just turned 28; seven years in the league, and the miles are starting to pile up.
3. Peyton Manning: Ho hum… 4000 yards and 30 TDs. I wish I could write something about his inability to win the big one, but, uh, he kind of did that already. I guess I could focus on the fact that in four playoff games he had QB ratings of 71.9, 39.6, 79.1 and 81.8… but he’s wearing a ring, so I’ll just shut up.
4. Frank Gore: I’d be worried about his wrist injury if he was a receiver, quarterback, lineman, pretty much anything other than a running back. Running backs injure their hands all the time. Unless it impedes his ability to hold on to the ball, then his numbers from last season (2100+ yards from scrimmage, 1695 of them on the ground, 5.4 Yards per Carry, 9 total TDs) inspire more than enough confidence.
5. Larry Johnson: This is the last season he’s a top-five pick. His workload is increasing, he has signed a major multi-year contract and gotten his guaranteed money, and the team is getting progressively worse around him, particularly on the offensive line. If he breaks the 400 carry mark again this season, I can easily see him breaking down before Week 17 or by next year.
6. Maurice Jones-Drew: Very simple – By week 11 he was the co-starting running back. By week 14, he was the #1 back. By 2008, he’s a top-10 fantasy draft pick. He reminds me a lot of Barry Sanders – not necessarily in how he runs, because nobody will ever move like Barry did. But in his size and speed, he looks a lot like the old #20. By the way: 13 TDs and only one fumble in 166 carries last season ain’t half bad either.
7. Willie Parker: These are the things that happen when you move to Pittsburgh – suddenly you start thinking things like “maybe Willie Parker really is a top-10 fantasy running back” or “It’s not so bad to have to cross three bridges and go through two tunnels just to leave the city”. I don’t know – I just think that as much as I hate the Steelers, they’ve got a good shot to make the playoffs, and Willie Parker will need to be a major factor to make it there. Also, I think I just threw up a little.
8. Rudi Johnson: Probably the only Bengal outside of Carson Palmer who won’t get arrested this season, he’s just a model of a consistent running back – somewhere around 1300-1400 yards a season and exactly 12 rushing TDs each of the past three years. Don’t look for much in the receiving department – about 20 catches for 80-100 yards a season. But he’ll put up numbers and he’ll find the end zone – what more could you ask for from a #1 pick?
9. Carson Palmer: Back-to-Back Bengals… I’ve spent too much time in an AFC North city. Cincinnati’s offense is still dynamic, even if they’ll be without Chris Henry for a little while. Palmer has a decent chance to put up a Manning-like 4000/30 this season - he had 4,035 and 28TDs in ’06 – he should be considered a top-2 QB talent in every league.
10. Willis McGahee: Here’s a guy with something to prove. He’s a supremely talented running back that just got shown the door by a bad team, and somehow landed on a team with one of the best offensive lines in football. He’s not the piece that puts the Ravens over the top – at least, not unless he plays quarterback too – but he’ll be productive as all hell, and a 1500-yard, 15 TD season is not out of the question.
11. Joseph Addai: Just about every page I’ve read has been all over this guy as the breakout player of 2007. I’ve got to admit – with the Colts’ offense, he’s got a great shot to be a great player. But the team has lost a lot this past offseason, most notably offensive lineman Tarik Glenn to retirement. That’s a big hole in Addai’s blocking corps. I’m still willing to concede he’ll be a first round talent just based on the offense around him. But barely.
12. Shaun Alexander: Two years removed from his MVP campaign, Super Bowl push, Major contract, Madden cover and required ensuing injury, Shaun Alexander is no longer an afterthought in fantasy leagues. In fact, if he lasts to the snake pick, someone is going to get one hell of a 1-2 combination with their first two selections. If he can stay on the field, he’s almost a mortal lock for 1500yds and 20 TDs – the only reason I’ve got him so low is that I think a lot of people will forget about him. Or at least they would have, if I hadn’t just brought it up…
Round 2 (# of pick this round)
I’ll be shortening most of the explanations from here on, mostly because my hands can’t take this much prolonged typing – I’m a blogger, not a novelist.
13(1). Brian Westbrook: Get ready for it. No matter where he’s drafted, Brian Westbrook is going to raise some eyebrows. If he goes early to some obsessed Eagles’ fan, people will scoff. If he goes late to anybody else, people will be pissed that they forgot him. He’s a borderline first round guy, but shouldn’t, under any circumstance, fall past the middle of the second. Unless he breaks in half during a preseason game. Maybe then he could slip to the third or so. But with Westbrook & Alexander, you’ve either just drafted the best running back combination in the league, or you’ve got two new starting running backs by Week 9.
14(2). Drew Brees: With Joseph Addai, you’ve already got a relative unknown. With Drew Brees, you’ve got a talented QB with a monster receiving corps and a great running back tandem. In other words – you’re in good shape.
15(3). Laurence Maroney: Simple – no team is going to be able to stack the line against the Pats this season. Maroney shouldn’t have to run through too many 8 or 9 man defensive lines, he’ll see much bigger cutback lanes, and even some decent yardage off of screens. Solid running back to pair with McGahee.
16(4). Reggie Bush: There’s a tough choice to be made here between Bush and backfield mate Deuce MacAllister. There’s very little chance you’ll get both, so you better take the one with more big-play potential. That’s Reggie, and pairing him with Palmer gives you the chance to put up some serious numbers every week.
17(5). Tom Brady: Brady’s potential with the best receiving corps he’s ever had vaults him above a second-tier running back with this pick. But with Brady & Rudi Johnson, you’re going to need to luck out in the third round with a decent back still on the board.
18(6). Ronnie Brown: Another good running back in a mediocre offense to pair with Willie Parker. You need a QB, and fast. Otherwise, you better hope you’re in a keeper league.
19(7). Brandon Jacobs: Seems almost like a steal to get a starting RB in a run-happy offense this late… until you remember that run-happy offense has had Tiki Barber to rely on for the past half-decade… and still has to depend on Eli Manning for the other half of the plays. Still, MJD and Jacobs should give you a solid foundation.
20(8). Jamal Lewis: LJ & JL. Two of the strongest backs in the league. If they both play all 16 games, you could be looking at a title run.
21(9). Clinton Portis: Frank Gore and Clinton Portis. It’s almost unfair to have those two on the same team. Just make sure you grab Ladell Betts, just in case…
22(10). Marion Barber III: You’re gonna need a starting running back here, even with the 30+ points Peyton should give you every week. Barber should be the featured back in Dallas this year, taking even more carries away from Julius Jones than he did last year (I’m still bitter…)
23(11). Edgerrin James: In most leagues, there’s probably zero chance Edge falls this far. But if you can manage to pair Edge with LdT, with another pick coming up shortly, you are in great shape.
24(12). Chad Johnson: Somebody has to be the first receiver off the board. Might as well be the most entertaining one.
Round 3 (# of pick this round)
25(1). Cedric Benson: Tough choice here, not taking a quarterback and having to wait another 22 picks for a shot at one. But having another #1 running back, on an offense where the passing game is as inconsistent as is humanely possible, should be worth waiting a couple rounds for your QB.
26(2). Marc Bulger: LdT, Edge & Bulger. Yup, that’s a title team in the making.
27(3). Cadillac Williams: Well, Peyton is solid every game. But your running backs situation is completely hit or miss from week to week.
28(4). Philip Rivers: Gore, Portis & Rivers. Get some receiver help next.
29(5). Donovan McNabb: Here’s your quarterback run. McNabb looks like he’s back and healthy again, and should compliment your team nicely. Though with LJ & Jamal Lewis already in the stables, you might be building the “ACL Tear All-Stars” by midseason…
30(6). Tony Romo: Just has more upside than Hasselbeck, and a more wide-open offense.
31(7). Matt Hasselbeck: Might as well be a coin flip with Romo…
32(8). Jerious Norwood: This could be the first surprise of the draft – just where Jerious Norwood goes. But with Warrick Dunn’s advancing age and back injury and Michael Vick’s, um, issues, you’re getting a #1 back with ridiculous potential. Remember – the Falcons had the best rushing offense in the league last year, and didn’t turn over much of their offensive line. Might be a reach, but it could pay off huge. And if not, you’ve got Brady & Rudi Johnson to pick up the slack.
33(9). Torry Holt: Slipped a little last year, but the Rams’ offense is too powerful for him to fall any farther than this. In fact, he’ll probably be gone before here, but if not, then grab him.
34(10). Matt Leinart: Another “where will he go?” type of guy – this seems like the right spot for someone to take a chance on his potential and his ridiculous depth at receiver. Especially a team like the one built here – waiting any long for a QB could have you splitting the duties between Brett Favre and Byron Leftwich…
35(11). Thomas Jones: The Jets’ #1 running back, even if Leon Washington will probably take away about 70-100 carries this year. But with Brees & Addai, you only need about 10-15 points a week from your #2 RB.
36(12). Steve Smith: Traditional Logic says take a QB here, but you can grab one in a second. Smith falls because Jake Delhomme hasn’t been all that good in the last year and a half.
Round 4 (# of pick this round)
37(1). Vince Young: Lousy preseason so far, but who really looks at those stats? Team so far: Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook, Steve Smith, Vince Young
38(2). Antonio Gates: No need to reach for a wide receiver here. Might as well start the tight end run for the rest of the league. Team so far: Joseph Addai, Drew Brees, Thomas Jones, Antonio Gates
39(3). Larry Fitzgerald: Start building a receiving corps by giving yourself the Cardinals’ #1 tandem. Team so far: Willis McGahee, Laurence Maroney, Matt Leinart, Larry Fitzgerald
40(4). Chester Taylor: You still need another #1 running back, and this is probably the best available – even if he’s splitting carries by Week 10. Team so far: Carson Palmer, Reggie Bush, Torry Holt, Chester Taylor
41(5). Marvin Harrison: Might want to pair Randy Moss with Brady, but he’s not worth the risk this early. Team so far: Rudi Johnson, Tom Brady, Jerious Norwood, marvin Harrison
42(6). Roy Williams: Too bad the Seahawks don’t have any top-tier receivers to pair with Hasselbeck. You could use a back-up RB, but Williams is too good to pass on here. Team so far: Willie Parker, Ronnie Brown, Matt Hasselbeck
43(7). Terrell Owens: Another team that needs some running back depth, but the Romo/Owens combo should produce enough to make up for any loss from the #3 RB slot. Team so far: Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Jacobs, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens
44(8). Marshawn Lynch: Fill up the running back corps, and get a trading chip. You can fill in receivers later. Team so far: Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Donovan McNabb, Marshawn Lynch
45(9). Tony Gonzalez: Both RB spots and the QB position are solid, grab Gonzalez – he’ll be a frequent dump-off target for a weakened Chiefs’ offense. Team so far: Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Philip Rivers, Tony Gonzalez
46(10). Ahman Green: You’d better hope Reggie Wayne’s still around in five picks... Team so far: Peyton Manning, Marion Barber III, Cadillac Williams, Ahman Green
47(11). Donald Driver: Let’s face it – you could draft a kicker here and still be in good shape with those first three picks – why not pick up a #1 receiver, just to be safe? Team so far: LaDanian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Marc Bulger, Donald Driver
48(12). Alex Smith: Waiting until the 4th round for your #1 QB might pay off. Just make sure you grab Antonio Bryant or Vernon Davis in the 5th. Team so far: Steven Jackson, Chad Johnson, Cedric Benson, Alex Smith
For the record, I have my first fantasy draft tomorrow night, with another one next Thursday before the annual College league during Labor Day weekend. I’ll repost before Week 1 with my three draft results, just in case anybody’s interested to see if I had the balls to follow through with anything I just wrote.
2007 NFL Season Preview coming soon…
Lata.
Labels: 2007, fantasy, ffl, Preview, supreme geekdom
Never too early to start planning
With the 2007 non-waiver trading deadline in the rear-view mirror, I thought I'd take some time to look through the crystal ball at the names being thrown around at this time next year. Well, not exactly this time - actually, 364 days from now (love the leap year), but you all get the point.
With
Johna Santana's comments to the media recently showing his feelings about the Twins' organization and their spendthrift policies, it's not hard to imagine a feeding frenzy at the trading deadline. The Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers, Angels... pretty much every team not named "The Twins" are going to get into a bidding war over him.
In fact, the Twins stand to lose quite a bit of talent over the next two seasons, with Torii Hunter leaving town after this year ends, and Santana & Joe Nathan both eligible to hit the Powerball after 2008. There were never any legit rumors involving Hunter at this year's deadline (surprising, considering the Twins don't appear to be going anywhere in the standings), but don't expect next July to pass without Johan & Nathan's names popping up every thirty seconds or so in the next great Rumor Central blockbuster.
Two other names on a team going nowhere that are likely to pop up next season are down in South Florida - Dontrelle Willis & Miguel Cabrera. Both are arbitration eligible through 2009, but the Marlins would be crazy not to at least entertain offers for one or both of these guys. Sure, they could hold on to them through that one final season (talking about '09), hope the pieces come together and they make a playoff run (let's face it - it's the Marlins. A franchise that has never lost a playoff series), and with the third ring in twelve years, the city of Miami builds them a new ballpark. That's a perfect world type of situation.
Or, they could deal away their two biggest chips, rebuild around Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, Mike Jacobs and Josh Johnson (oh, and some kid named Hanley...) and shoot for 2011 and beyond. Let's face it - Dontrelle isn't the pitcher he was three years ago, and Cabrera is growing more, uh,
large with each passing day. Why not deal a little early on two mid-20's stars that could return enough talent to your system to fill your everyday roster from now until the next Bush is elected to the White House? We all know Florida certainly isn't going to pay them, and they aren't going to import any free agent talent worth a shit to help the team contend while Miggy & Cabrera are still there, so cut bait now and refill the farm system.
Finally, the Reds should still have both Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn. But it's the Reds - they'll probably let Dunn walk and try to get Griffey signed long term...
Of course, if the '08 deadline is anything like the last few, we'll see one major move, one mid-major move, and a lot of "Wow, this was so close - it all broke down at the last minute" stories involving everybody under the sun.
Lata.
Labels: GMs get paid for this?, MLB, Rumors, Trade
The Rarest of all Creatures...
Sshhhhh. Don't make any sudden moves. Try not to make any noise. Just sit there, quietly, and enjoy something that is about as rare as seeing a live-dodo bird in the wild.
A true win-win trade in the NBA.
This kind of thing just doesn't happen anymore. Almost every trade made these days, with the salary cap rules the way they are, is either a one-sided salary dump, a one-sided rebuilding project, or a one-sided shipment of a disgruntled superstar. Yesterday's
Celtics/T-Wolves megadeal (after the
Celtics/Sonics draft night deal) is that rare bird - a trade that benefitted both teams.
Minnesota got (in theory) seven players for the face of their franchise, assuming they make both draft picks and don't dump Sebastian Telfair. Of course, Theo Ratliff will probably never see the hardwood in Minneapolis, but his contract gives them a ton of cap room next season. They got a younger version of KG in Al Jefferson (Prep-to-pros big man with double-double written all over him, will eventually command a double-team everytime he touches the ball, wears his heart on his sleeve, etc.), the ultimate team/intangibles guy in Ryan Gomes, and the allure of Gerald Green's potential. They've just become the '06 Celtics of the Western Conference.
That might not sound too appealling, but with cap room to spare and extra draft picks to move, they might not be rebuilding all that long.
As for Boston, well, they went from
praying for a loss every night to getting ready to print up NBA Finals tickets (and maybe even starting the work on Banner #17). They've got one of the top three big men in the conference (Shaq & Chris Bosh, with KG, fill out that top-3 in some order), and two of the best pure shooters in the entire NBA. Sure, they have only about 4 total guys on the roster, but as the C's proved in '02 with Pierce & Walker - you can get to the Eastern Conference Finals with two top-25 guys and a roster full of "others". Now, they've got three top-25 guys (one in the top 10), and no other roster. I'm sure they can fill it in as they go along.
They're not quite the team to beat in the East yet - Chicago, Detroit & maybe even New Jersey and Toronto can give them a run - but they instantly went from the bottom of the barrel to right in the mix. If they can lure one or two mid-level free agents to join them and fill out their roster, they can be the East representatives in the NBA Finals.
And that's all we ask for. Celtics' fans expectations have been lowered so much in the past decade that all we want is to matter again. Now we do. Boston is no longer considered an "off night" on other teams schedules. They can't be overlooked, they can't be easily dismissed, and if other teams don't start paying attention, they won't be stopped.
Lata.
Labels: Celtics, KG, NBA, Wow the Eastern Conference Sucks
