2007 MLB Preview - Introduction
2007 MLB Season Preview
Introduction
Alright, I’ve put this off long enough. I suppose it’s time for me to hunker down, pull together all the research, and actually put pen to paper. Or at least fingers to keyboard.
In the 5+ months since the Detroit Tigers threw away the World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, I’ve tracked every free agent signing, every injury, every trade, every Japanese posting offer, all just to come to the following conclusion:
We know nothing in March.
Not that there’s any kind of enlightening new information in that statement. Every season since the beginning of 2004, I’ve sat down at my computer and typed roughly 15,000 words about the upcoming Major League season, about which teams are going to be outstanding, and which teams are going to disappoint. About which players will win the MVP and which players will crash and burn (with apologies to Cory Lidle… too soon?). And do you know how many times I’ve been right?
Once. When I picked the Red Sox to win it all in 2004 (was only one game off on the National League representative too…). Of course, I think I’ve picked the Red Sox to win it all every year since I was born, but that’s irrelevant. Sooner or later, I was going to be right, and it just so happened to be in the first year of my blogging infancy.
This year, I make no promises. All I will say is that if I’m wrong I‘m used to it. We know nothing in March. Get back to me in August…
(I’m posting this by league… American League today, and hopefully National League tomorrow. Bear with me – my fingers are about to explode from typing. Not to mention that I’ve written most of this with my friends’ band practicing about ten feet behind my head…)
American League
Labels: 2007, MLB, Preview
2007 MLB Preview - American League
2007 MLB Season Preview
American League
By far, the dominant league throughout 2006, the American League lost its grip on the World Series trophy in last years’ postseason. Winners of 3 of the last four World Series, and eleven of the previous fifteen Fall Classics, the AL had owned the postseason since 1991. The only National League victories came in 1995 (Braves), 1997 (Marlins), 2001 (D-Backs) and 2003 (Marlins, somehow, again).
Then came 2006. The Detroit Tigers, of all teams, made it to the show and promptly proceeded to embarrass themselves on the game’s biggest stage. Their pitchers either had no grip on the ball, or else were accused of using a foreign substance to get a better grip. And the Cardinals walked away with the World Series.
This year? Well, I can assure you of only one thing. The Tigers will not be the AL’s representative in the World Series this October…
AL West
LA Angels (94-68)
Oakland A’s (90-72)
Texas Rangers (84-78)
Seattle Mariners (76-86)
AL Central
Chicago White Sox (95-67)
Minnesota Twins (91-71)
Detroit Tigers (90-72)
Cleveland Indians (88-74)
Kansas City Royals (71-91)
AL East
Boston Red Sox (96-66)
New York Yankees (93-69) *
Toronto Blue Jays (86-76)
Baltimore Orioles (77-85)
Tampa Bay Rays (68-94)
Labels: 2007, American League, MLB, Preview
2007 MLB Preview - American League East
American League East
Boston Red Sox: One year after they completely self-destructed in a mid-summer homestand against the Yankees, the Red Sox have completed the metamorphosis from “Moneyball team with slightly more assets” into “World Dominating Tyrannical Baseball Force”.
Their projected payroll in ’07 is $160M. That’s before any bonus clauses or mid-season acquisitions are factored in. They managed to give out $170M in contracts this offseason, not to mention the $51.1M they spent just for the right to give Daisuke Matsusaka another $52M. Or the money they will eventually (if they ever come to their senses) pay to Curt Schilling for his one or two year extension.
So, from a baseball perspective, what does it all mean? Well, for starters, it means they’ve got one of the most fearsome lineups in all of baseball, and they have the single best rotation in the American League, if not the entire major leagues. The only weak spot in their 1-9 is towards the bottom of the order, where Dustin Pedroia & Coco Crisp could easily slip into “automatic out” status as the season wears on. But 1-7, the lineup is nasty: Lugo, Youkilis, Ortiz, Manny, Drew, Lowell, Varitek, Crisp, Pedroia. Sure, there isn’t a whole lot of opportunity to play small ball with that order (I don’t see anyone from the 2-hole down to the 8 that will be stealing too many bases), but when you’ve got potentially six 20-homer guys, who needs to manufacture runs?
(EDIT: After writing this preview, Papelbon was moved back into the closer’s role. The rest of this team preview has been re-written).
The pitching was already solid going in to Spring Training, with potentially four 15-game winners in the rotation. The biggest question was at closer, where the Sox had initially planned to go with a pu-pu platter of Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Brendan Donnelly and Julian Tavarez in the 9th inning. Luckily, someone finally woke up and decided to put Jonathon Papelbon back into the closer’s role, moving Kyle Snyder, Tavarez & Pineiro into the 5th starter/spot starter slot. It’s a good move, and one that will pay dividends in more ways than one.
The rotation of Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett and Wakefield should be able to hold it’s own. Matt Clement, though still months away from a healthy return, might be effective as a 5th starter (because we all know he was pretty useless as a #2 or #3). The biggest hole on the mound was filled by Papelbon’s move to the bullpen. Honestly, aside from injuries slowing them down, I don’t see any way this team doesn’t win 90+.
But will it be enough?
Biggest subplot this season?
It’s Boston – everything’s a “subplot”. Schilling’s contract, Manny’s eBay adventures, Drew’s limp-wristed attempts to be a professional athlete, Papelbon’s shoulder, Dice-K’s transition to American baseball… you name it, it will be blown out of proportion by the media & fans.
Best player you should start looking out for?
The Red Sox have, for the most part, moved away from the original stated goal of cultivating young players through the farm system to run a true Moneyball style of baseball team. Instead, they cultivate young players to use as trade bait. But look out for David Murphy & Jacoby Ellsbury when/if they make an appearance this year. And if Coco Crisp can’t produce in this lineup, Ellsbury might be in Fenway sooner than anyone thinks.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Sadly, the biggest roadblock could be themselves. The thing that made the 2004 team so good was their chemistry as well as their talent. Just about every person in the clubhouse got along with one another and the team rode their friendships all the way to the World Series. With this current version of the team, there are so many egos and preferential treatment situations that it could quickly devolve into a “25 guys, 25 cabs” situation. Again.
New York Yankees: There is no team with a more deadly batting order than this incarnation of the New York Yankees. Top to bottom, there isn’t an easy out in the lineup. And, even more amazing, they will at least have eight patient hitters in the order every night. Not too many starters are going to last past the 6th inning against this team.
Look at how it shakes out right now: Jeter/Damon/Abreu/A-Rod/Giambi/Matsui/Cano/Posada, and whoever gets plugged in at first base nightly – most likely Doug Mientkiewicz.
How many other teams could trade away a first ballot Hall-of-Famer in Randy Johnson, and another top tier player (and borderline Hall-of-Famer) in Gary Sheffield and still be penciled in for at least 90-wins?
The biggest question for this team will be in the rotation. Chien-Ming Wang should be the unquestioned staff ace, but more than likely the Opening Day role will fall to Mike Mussina, who just signed a 2-year, $23M extension. The Yanks brought back old friend Andy Petitte with a $16M one-year contract, but otherwise had a surprisingly quiet hot-stove signing season. Or, at least as quiet as it can be when you have a $200M+ payroll…
Biggest subplot this season?
When will Carl Pavano actually see a pitcher’s mound? Since signing his 4yr/$32M conract two seasons ago, Pavano has pitched in only 17 Major League games, and none in the last 21 months. Not exactly earning that signing bonus. Some sources say he’ll be the Opening Day starter… I have no idea how that’s possible, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Much like Boston, the Yankees don’t have too many “unheralded” young studs coming out of the farm system anymore. But among the lesser known players on their roster, new Japanese import Kei Igawa seems to have the most “unknown upside”. He could either end up as a great addition to the pitching staff, or as a $20M reactionary signing after the Red Soc got Matsuzaka
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Well, let’s see. Age. Injuries. A-Rod’s fragile psyche. Giambi’s, uh, “resurgence”. No one to step into the rotation when Mussina, Pavano & Petitte inevitably break down. Should I go on?
Toronto Blue Jays: Absolutely, the single biggest dark horse in the American League. Last season, they leapt over the Red Sox to grab second place in the division, 6 games over .500, but still 10 games behind the Yankees.
This year, deciding they had already built a solid pitching staff if everyone is healthy, the Jays decided to once again upgrade their offense by adding Frank Thomas with a 2yr/$18M contract. The Big Hurt joins a lineup that already featured Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus & Lyle Overbay, not to mention some decent OBP guys at the top of the lineup in Alex Rios and Aaron Hill (both with a .349 OBP last season).
The rotation, sporting another perennial Cy Young favorite in Roy Halladay, and the oft-injured but potential ace in the making AJ Burnett, added three role players in Tomo Ohka, John Thompson, and Victor Zambrano (he of the fantastic Zambrano for Scott Kazmir, straight up trade…), all of them to short money deals. And of course, they have one of the three best closers in the league waiting in the bullpen for the 9th in BJ Ryan.
All around, they have one of the most solid team in the majors. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck in the same division with two teams who have no qualms about pushing all their chips into the pot every season.
Biggest subplot this season?
The Blue Jays aren’t the Yankees, and they aren’t the Red Sox. What they are is a well run, very well coached group of guys who needs to remember that they are built to win in the long term, and they need to take advantage of other teams’ mistakes. If they can steal 3-5 games this year that they aren’t supposed to win, they can be right in the division race.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Aaron Hill & Alex Rios are both guys who can fly under the radar, but will also both likely score 100 runs in that lineup. And then of course, there’s Lyle Overbay, another player in the Brandon Inge mold – he’s never going to blow you away with his numbers, but you can see a steady uptick in his production every season over the last three.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
AJ Burnett. The Jays are relying on him to become at least the #2 starter they’ve been looking for behind Doc Halladay. Unfortunately, he was sidelined by shoulder troubles last season, and has made only 76 starts over the past four years, an average of 19 per season. The Jays need a full year out of him, whether good or bad, if they hope to be competitive all year.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles went on something of a spending spree this offseason, though nothing like a few years back when they broke the bank for Miguel Tejada & Javy Lopez. This year, they doled out a little over $80M in guaranteed contracts to 12 players, including resigning three of their own free agents.
Unfortunately, they signed mostly bit players and fill-in type guys, only really bringing in one upper level player (Aubrey Huff, 3yr/$20M), and no one under the age of 28.
Baltimore has so many problems that one offseason of spending isn’t even about to touch them. They need wholesale changes, and they need to start right at the top. Peter Angelos has driven this team into the ground in the past ten years, treating the team as nothing more than his own personal piggy bank, drawing untold sums of money from the other Major League Teams in revenue sharing money, not to mention his blatant extortion of the other owners over the Nationals’ relocation to Washington DC.
However, short of forcing Angelos to sell the team (there’s no way he would ever give it up freely), Orioles fans will have to suffer through another losing season. Shame too, as they’ve finally developed some pretty decent talent in their system, but will have to watch them go to waste.
Guys like Erik Bedard, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and Adam Loewen, have all come along in the past couple of years. Enjoy them now, Orioles fans, because they’ll all be wearing other teams’ hats in the coming years.
Biggest subplot this season?
Fans’ frustrations. Last season, Orioles fans attempted to organize mass walkouts from Camden Yards on multiple occasions to show their displeasure with the team. Here’s the problem with that strategy – if fans don’t support this team, management says “why should we spend more – the fans don’t care”. If fans sell out the park, buy all the merchandise and cheer wildly at every game, win or lose, management says “why should we spend more – the fans are already showing up when the team stinks! We’re not going to sell any more tickets – we’d just be losing money”. It’s a no-win for the fans, and it’s a shame.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Nick Markakis. The 23-year old right fielder was probably brought up one year too early last season, but he certainly didn’t suffer from it. His .291/16/62 stat line shows room for improvement, and with any type of support in the lineup, he should continue to impress.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
After Erik Bedard, there is nothing in that rotation. #2 starter Kris Benson will most likely miss the entire season with a should surgery, so the next option becomes Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera managed a stellar 9-10 record last season, and once walked six Red Sox in one inning. Not exactly a claim to fame to be proud of. He’s wildly erratic, at best, and that’s not a quality you’re looking for in a #2 starter.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays: The worst team in the Major Leagues last season, the Rays have nowhere to go but up. How far up is still in question, but they certainly can’t get any worse than their ’06 record of 61-101. Can they?
Well, they made a grand total of one free agent signing this year – 28-year old Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura. Not that Iwamura wasn’t a good signing; by all accounts he should be a very good third baseman, and might even contend for an All-Star slot. But the D-Rays, like the Orioles, have far too many holes to patch up all at once.
The rotation behind Scott Kazmir is, well, non-existent. Seth McClung, Casey Fossum, Shawn Camp... basically, non-existent. What they do have is a pretty good core on offense, most of whom are locked up at low money that suits the Rays budgetary constraints. Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, BJ Upton, Jonny Gomes… the Rays have only 2 position players (Greg Norton & Josh Paul) and two pitchers (Camp & Dan Miceli) on their roster over the age of 29.
They could follow the Marlins’ old formula and try to make a push with young pitching and very young, brash offense. Problem is, they need a little more talent, and they need to get out of the AL East.
Biggest subplot this season?
How many games will have more D-Rays fans than opposing team’s fans? More often than not, there are more Red Sox/Yankees and occasionally fans of other teams in the stands than actual home team fans. It can’t be fun for the Rays’ players to be playing, at home, in front of more fans cheering for them to lose than to win. Kind of like playing for the Celtics right now.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Obviously, Iwamura will be getting some attention by mid-season, but he’s coming from Japan with a long resume. Guys like BJ Upton and Delmon Young are the most likely to be ignored early on, until they start putting up the numbers. The unfortunate side here is that Upton & Young will likely take too long to develop into big-time players, and guys like Baldelli, Crawford, Kazmir & Jorge Cantu will have moved on.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Just like with the Royals, no one is expecting the D-Rays to be a competitive force in the division or league. If they can steal a couple from the powerhouse teams, they might be able to build some confidence heading into next year. But until they add more good arms to the rotation, they’re nothing but fodder for the actual contenders to tune up on.
Labels: 2007, American League, East, MLB, Preview
2007 MLB Preview - American League Central
American League Central
Chicago White Sox: One year after ending their own World Series drought, the White Sox failed to even make the playoffs in 2006, finishing third in their own division behind Minnesota and Detroit. Their 90 wins last year were only good enough for a 6-game deficit behind the division-winning Twins. Their pitching just wasn’t what it was in ’05, and although they certainly were not lacking in offense (five players with 20+ home runs and 70+ RBI), they simply didn’t have enough to hang with the younger, feistier teams in the division.
So what needed to happen this year? Well, for starters, they needed the other teams in the toughest division in baseball to get worse. Didn’t happen. They needed to make a splash in the free agent/trade market. Well, they dealt Freddy Garcia away to Philadelphia (in a contract year, no less) in return for underachieving Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez. In essence, the deal was made to open a spot in the rotation for Brandon McCarthy, who the White Sox felt was a potential ace in the making. Unfortunately, before he could be made, he was dealt to Texas in exchange for a former first-round pick and a couple of highly regarded prospects, including outfielder David Paisano (watch out for him in the next 2-3 years).
The offense was off the charts good in ’06, and if they can get even 80-85% of the output they had last year (236 team home runs, 868 runs scored, and a team OPS of .806) they should be in good shape.
Biggest subplot this season?
How many people had career years on offense last year (*cough* Jermaine Dye *cough*) that will most likely never be duplicated?
Best player you should start looking out for?
White Sox fans have been hearing about Brandon McCarthy for years now. And the season that they finally open up a spot for him in the rotation, they deal him away. For now, Gavin Floyd & John Danks (acquired from Texas) will probably fill in the fifth starter role. But if there’s a serious drop in production, Chicago will be in the market for another starter by mid-June.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
As much as I love watching him hit, Jim Thome is not getting any younger (he turns 37 in August). In 2005, he lost most of the season in Philadelphia to a myriad of injuries. If anything starts flaring up during the year, the entire offense suffers. He truly is the anchor to an unforgiving lineup.
Minnesota Twins: Minnesota has managed to stay competitive year in and year out with almost no free agent movement. This year’s big signing was a one year, $3.1M deal with Ramon Ortiz. Not exactly breaking the bank. What they have done with their scouting and drafting departments is unbelievable. Where the Pirates’ model has failed, the Twins have excelled. They are always in the hunt for the playoffs, with last season’s remarkable late season run to the top of the division just more proof that they have found a way to beat the “big boys” at their own game.
And yet, with all of that, they haven’t been to a World Series since they last won it all over the Braves in 1991. They’ve made plenty of trips to the playoffs, and even an ALCS appearance or two, but never all the way to the big show.
Last year’s run to the postseason was almost short-circuited by the sudden loss of super stud rookie Francisco Liriano to a ligament injury in his pitching arm. With Johan Santana & Liriano as the 1-2 punch, the Twins’ rotation would rank among the top three in all of baseball. With “only” perennial Cy Young favorite Santana atop the rotation, they are probably a top-10 staff.
The loss of Liriano and the retirement of Brad Radke leave a couple of big holes in the pitching staff, but they still have the best starting pitcher in the league, and one of the three best closers in the entire game. They should be right in the thick of the race come August and September.
Biggest subplot this season?
Aside from the loss of Liriano, the contract year of centerfielder and “Face of the Team” Torii Hunter should provide plenty of distractions for both the rest of the team and the front office all year long.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Guess the cat’s out of the bag on Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (a batting title and an MVP tend to do that…), let’s go with Boof Bonser for two reasons. First, he’s got one of the best names in the bigs, and second, he is (sadly) only three weeks older than me. I feel like such a waste.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
There’s a good chance this team overachieved for the better part of 2006, meaning there’s plenty of room for a backslide into the mediocrity of an 82-88 win season. They need to keep playing at a high level for a full 162 games, and not have to finish the season at a 49-26 clip the way they did last year.
Detroit Tigers: I’m just not sold on them. Too many things fell just right for them last season, from getting 49 wins out of four pitchers under the age of 30, (not to mention 17 wins from 42-year old Kenny Rogers), to the renaissance of Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez and Todd Jones. And let’s not forget the ridiculous April of Chris Shelton. You know… before he remembered he was Chris Shelton.
So they caught some breaks, and it took them to the World Series. Big deal. Every team needs to catch some breaks along the way, whether it’s a favorable call, a lack of injuries to key players, or calling up the right guy from the minor leagues in June. The Tigers just seemed to catch all of the breaks last season. And in a division as tough as the AL Central, it’s going to be VERY hard to duplicate that type of success.
They’ve got the pitching to stay competitive, as long as Kenny Rogers keeps his hand well coated in pine tar. They’ve got the “natural leader” type of guy in Pudge Rodriguez, they made huge strides on offense by stealing Gary Sheffield and the Bronx-sized chip on his shoulder from the Yankees, and they’ve got enough young talent to take advantage of every other team’s mistakes. They just need to do it all at once.
Biggest subplot this season?
World Series Runner-Up Hangover. The ’04 Yankees and ’05 Cardinals stayed hot, but fell short of the World Series. The ’06 Astros missed the playoffs altogether (though not by much). Will the Tigers be able to break the jinx? I say no.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Well, for the first two weeks, I’d be all over Chris Shelton unless he starts in the minors. Otherwise, keep an eye on Brandon Inge. He puts up solid numbers every year, and he’s gotten consistently better over his six major-league seasons. Seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 29.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
The Tigers’ offense now revolves around three older players with a well-documented injury history – Pudge, Magglio Ordonez and Gary Sheffield. While injuries are a worry for any team, when your three biggest offensive threats have appeared in only 695 of a possible 972 games over the past three years (an average of 47 games missed per season, per player), there’s even more reason to be worried.
Cleveland Indians: A lot of people have pegged this team as “This Year’s Tigers” – the American League team that will come out of the depths of the previous year’s misery to surprise a lot of people and make the playoffs. I’m not buying it. They’ve done very little to get better from where they finished last season – they acquired Josh Barfield from the Padres and signed Trot Nixon as a free agent. Every other signing was focused on bolstering a dismal bullpen that cost them nearly as many games last season as they saved.
Unfortunately, when your biggest bullpen signing retires only days after you give him $5M guaranteed, you might have a slight problem. Keith Foulke retired from the game of baseball just after signing his contract with Cleveland, leaving the Indians’ bullpen in the semi-capable hands of new acquisitions Joe Borowski, Aaron Fultz, and Roberto Hernandez. Not exactly three guys who are going to be shortening too many games for The Tribe this season.
The starting rotation is still fairly good, though it looks as though C.C. Sabathia may never develop into that bona fide #1 ace type of pitcher - he was 12-11 in 28 starts last season with a very respectable 3.22 ERA. Good numbers, to be sure. But not the type of numbers that anchor a major league staff. Of course, 1/3 of the losses can probably be blamed on his pen.
Luckily, they still have a solid all-around offense led by “Pronk” Travis Hafner and his yearly .300/40/115 stat line. How this man has yet to win an MVP award, but Alex Rodriguez has two is completely beyond me.
Biggest subplot this season?
The bullpen. They had one of the worst in the bigs last season, blowing 23 saves in 47 chances. For those of you quick with numbers, you’ll note that they had only one more converted save than blown chance. They’ll need a much better effort this year if they’re even going to think about 85+ wins.
Best player you should start looking out for?
If you haven’t already stumbled across Grady Sizemore, then you shouldn’t even be reading this page. And as much as I’d like to say Lou Merloni is finally a star on the rise, this nod has to go to Josh Barfield. As a 23-year old rookie in San Diego last season, he put up a very nice line of .280/13/58 with 72 runs scored, 21 steals and solid defense at second base. Now in an American League lineup, with Pronk behind him, look out for a legitimate shot at 100+ runs and a handful more steals.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
The closer’s role currently belongs to Joe Borowski. The question is if he fails in that position, does Cleveland have anybody else on the roster that can step up and take over the reigns? If not, they’ll either have to close by committee (never a good option) or else sacrifice some young talent to bring in an outsider, which is never a guarantee. Trust me – I’m a Red Sox fan. I know this dilemma all too well.
Kansas City Royals: Every year, when I get to the Royals’ preview, one word comes to mind: ugh. This team hasn’t had a reason to be excited in a very long time – even a few years back when Tony Pena injected some life into the roster and almost led them to a .500 season, the park wouldn’t sell out, the players never seemed like they even believed what was happening, and the rest of the baseball world wrote it off as a fluke. And they were right.
But now, years after Pena jumped ship and the majority of the players from that season have left, been traded, or gone back to their rightful places in the minor leagues, the Royals have a new word to describe their season: hope.
The Royals finally seem to have a solid core of young talent at multiple positions on the diamond, and while the pitching still isn’t there, it isn’t out of the question to think this team could threaten that .500 mark again this year, if not even break it. Players like Mark Teahan, Joey Gathright, Alex Gordon, Ryan Shealy and former AL ROY (even if the vote was a sham) Angel Berroa make up ¾ of the infield and at least one of the starting outfield spots.
Admittedly, they blew the budget with the ridiculous 5yr/$55M contract handed to Gil Meche. But I don’t look at that signing as wholly incompetent – if nothing else, it proves to future free agents that the Royals might just be willing to pay you the money you’re looking for, so don’t write them off your list entirely. Meche will probably never be more than a .500 pitcher (especially not when he’s facing the other AL Central lineups for about 3/5 of his projected starts), but he can be a masthead from which the Royals can fly their banner reading “Open for Business”…
Biggest subplot this season?
Mike Sweeney. A couple years ago, there was talk about him opting out of his contract because of a clause tied to the team’s record. He chose to stay, saying he believed in what the organization was doing. Multiple Neck/Back/Arm injuries and extended trips to the DL later, he’s no longer an everyday first baseman, and he ties up $11M a year on the Royals meager payroll. When he decided to stay, the fans lauded him for his commitment and loyalty to the team. Now, most of them would rather he had left.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Alex Gordon, the early front runner for AL ROY. He’s torn up the minor league system and this spring he’s been a beast at the plate, not to mention playing solid defense at third base. Oh, and he’s being handed the #5 spot in the order, just behind Teahan and Sweeney. Not bad for a kid who just turned 23 last month.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Listen, it’s the Royals. No one is penciling them in for a 90-win season and a trip to the playoffs. But if they play to their potential, they’ve got a legitimate shot at 75-80 wins. Small victories people…
Labels: 2007, American League, Central, MLB, Preview
2007 MLB Preview - American League West
American League West
LA Angels: They got bit early and often by the injury bug last season, losing starters at a handful of positions for an extended period of time, not to mention their staff ace Bartolo Colon going down with a rotator cuff injury for the majority of the season. But they found a few bright spots with their young prospects in Jered Weaver and Howie Kendrick, and even though there might not be a spot for them right now, Brandon Wood, Dallas MacPherson and Kendry Morales are available to step in to the starting lineup at any time. That’s a nice feeling to have on a team that is just starting to slide down the wrong side of the hill…
Biggest subplot this season?
Can they stay healthy enough to regain the form that brought them a ring in 2002?
Best player you should start looking out for?
Well, since Wood, MacPherson & Morales are all fairly well known, Howie Kendrick gets the nod. In limited duty in ’06 (267 at-bats), he hit .285 with 25 runs and 30 RBI. Not eye-popping numbers, but certainly enough contribution from a starting second baseman.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Is that pitching staff for real? Jered Weaver was dominant in ’06 but he starts the year on the DL. Bartolo Colon has a long road back from rotator cuff surgery, and John Lackey played out of his mind last year. Could be tough to duplicate.
Oakland Athletics: Aside from the Tigers, the A’s had to be one of the biggest surprises in baseball last season. They made minimal free agent signings before the ‘06 campaign, with the biggest name being Frank Thomas. Naturally, in typical Billy “genius” Beane style, Thomas went out and had an MVP-caliber year… then promptly bolted for Toronto and their 2yr/$18M offer (I mean, wouldn’t you do the same thing?)
This year’s marquee free agent was Mike Piazza, brought in strictly to act as the team’s DH. And you know what? It’s probably going to work. Without a full workload behind the plate (he might see a little action as a backstop or at first base… probably in interleague play) Piazza should be able to focus solely on what he does best – mashing the ball. If he doesn’t put up a .280/30/100 without injury concerns, I’ll be stunned.
The loss of Barry Zito across the Bay to San Francisco would leave a gaping hole in the #1 spot in any other team’s rotation. But Beane has done such a phenomenal job stockpiling arms through trades and drafts that there’s always someone who can fill the void. Rich Harden & Dan Haren should be able to hold down the fort nicely. And, if not, I’m sure there’s a 6-team, 13 player deal already in the works in the GM’s secret lair…
Biggest subplot this season?
Who claims the pole position as the staff ace? And how long before the first home game sells out? May? July?
Best player you should start looking out for?
He’s never gotten a chance to play full-time, but this season, no one is competing for Dan Johnson’s job. With only 661 career ABs, he’s put up average numbers. But now that the job is his, look for him to steadily improve.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Well, there’s plenty of off-field stuff to discuss with this team. From the new stadium to the utter lack of fan support, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of the players were unable to focus on just playing baseball.
Texas Rangers: They remained competitive for a long time last season, considering their two best hitters were in the tank for most of the first half of the year. Mark Teixeira snapped out of it later in the summer – Hank Blalock never came around.
They gave away the farm (or the farm system) to rent Carlos Lee for a couple of months before he went across the state to the Astros (and their ridiculous $100M offer…money well-saved Tom Hicks) leaving them with a mediocre rotation and a 35-year old Japanese imported closer.
However, they did win the right to gamble $10M on Eric Gagne’s arm returning to form and possibly providing them with a dominant force at the back end of their bullpen. Remember – he’s only 31. If he returns to even 80% of what he was in LA, the Rangers have a damned good relief pitchers, albeit at a very inflated rate.
Biggest subplot this season?
Can Hank Blalock regain the form that made him the heir apparent as the best third baseman in the American League (behind Eric Chavez and before A-Rod shifted ten steps to the right)?
Best player you should start looking out for?
Ian Kinsler. Broke into the league last season and put up some pretty solid numbers in a decent lineup. With Michael Young, Teixeira, Blalock and Brad Wilkerson hitting around him, he should improve on last season’s .286/14/55.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Pitching. It’s not really unseen, since almost every team has the question, but the Rangers have nothing in their rotation outside of Kevin Millwood and possibly Vicente Padilla. Brandon McCarthy is young and could develop into a potential ace, but is probably another two years away.
Seattle Mariners: Or, as they’re known everywhere else in America, The Fightin’ Ichiros… Seriously – how many Mariners besides Ichiro can you name? Two? Three? None? The Mariners fell into the trap of wildly overbidding for two guys putting up monster numbers in contract years – Richie Sexon and Adrian Beltre – two seasons ago. Admittedly, their numbers were gaudy and alluring. But Seattle committed somewhere in the neighborhood of $100M to two guys who had never fulfilled their potential until the season before they became free agents. Really – that didn’t set off little red warning lights and bells?
Ichiro is still the star of this team, and by far its best player. But he’s up for a new contract after this, the final year of his 4yr/$44M deal from 2003, and if he leaves this team, the devastation to the Mariners would not only be on the field, but the off-field financial impact of losing one of the most Internationally-marketable stars in the league would set them back another five years. They need to lock him up, and they need to do it now.
If he puts up yet another overlooked season of .320/10/60 with 30+ steals, Seattle will find some serious competition for his services by more than one team. If he puts up a career year – say a line of .360/20/80 and 45+ steals, they’ll lose him to another bidder.
Biggest subplot this season?
See above. At what point do the Mariners have to seriously entertain offers for Ichiro in trade talks? 10-games back? 15? Because both are certainly reachable.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Jose Lopez. The 24 year old second baseman might lose his job to newly acquired Jose Vidro, but more than likely, the Mariners will play the youth. Lopez proves that he belonged in the bigs last season, and should get better as his at-bats increase.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
“King” Felix Hernandez… then what’s left of Jeff Weaver, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista. And Seattle wonders why they can’t field a winning team? Try adding one quality starter – just one! – to that rotation. They’d pick up 10-12 wins, easily. In the smallest division in baseball, 12 games could be the difference between the playoffs on the field or the playoffs on the TV.
Labels: 2007, American League, MLB, Preview, West
Bracketology By D...
I’m positively giddy. The only time of year that makes me happier as a sports fan is late September into early October, when baseball wraps up, football kicks off, and the NHL & NBA are just about to gear up and roll out for their seasons.
March into April is a very close second. As I type this, I’m watching a Red Sox/Yankees game (preseason, sure. But still… Also, would it kill NESN to show the games in HD? They’ve got the capabilities… just pack the cameras and set them up. Sorry, had to rant), checking in on the latest NFL free agency, all while filling out my bracket and reading roughly 271,419 different “expert” opinions on how this year’s tournament is going to shake out, which teams got jobbed over, what storylines I’m going to be talking about (read: going to be beat over the head with) for the next five weeks, etc.
Today is a good day. And just to top it all off, Remy & Orsillo just had one of their patented “thirty seconds of dead air” while they giggled like 12-year old girls over some comment about the meaning of the word “philanthropy”. Triple word score for Remy – he challenged Orsillo to use it in a sentence. That brought the house down.
Anyway, since I’m reasonably good at picking brackets (or at least, the first round…), I figured I might as well give you all the “inside scoop”. And while I realize that my readership has recently tripled (now in double digits!), and most of the new readers are playing in the same ESPN Tournament Challenge group(s) as I am, all I ask is that if you copy my picks exactly, you don’t threaten bodily harm when we finish tied for last place.
East Rutherford:
UNC over E. Kentucky
Marquette over Michigan State
USC over Arkansas
Texas over New Mexico State
GW over Vanderbilt
Wash. State over Oral Roberts
Texas Tech over Boston College
G-Town over Belmont
UNC over Marquette
Texas over USC
Wash. State over GW
G-Town over Tx. Tech
Texas over UNC
G-Town over Wash. State
Texas over G-Town
San Antonio:
Ohio State over Central CT State
BYU over Xavier
Tennessee over Long Beach State
Albany over Virginia
Louisville over Stanford
Texas A&M over Pennsylvania
Creighton over Nevada
Memphis over North Texas
Ohio State over BYU
Albany over Tennessee
Texas A & M over Louisville
Memphis over Creighton
Ohio State over Albany
Texas A & M over Memphis
Ohio State over Texas A & M
St. Louis:
Florida over Jackson State
Purdue over Arizona
Butler over Old Dominion
Maryland over Davidson
Winthrop over Notre Dame
Oregon over Miami (OH)
UNLV over Georgia Tech
Wisconsin over Texas A&M – CC
Florida over Purdue
Butler over Maryland
Oregon over Winthrop
Wisconsin over UNLV
Butler over Florida
Wisconsin over Oregon
Wisconsin over Butler
San Jose:
Kansas over Play-In Winner (does it really matter? OK, fine - Niagara)
Villanova over Kentucky
Va. Tech over Illinois
S. Illinois over Holy Cross
Duke over VCU
Pittsburgh over Wright State
Gonzaga over Indiana
UCLA over Weber State
Kansas over Villanova
S. Illinois over Va. Tech
Pittsburgh over Duke
UCLA over Gonzaga
Kansas over S. Illiinois
UCLA over Pittsburgh
UCLA over Kansas
Final Four:
UCLA over Wisconsin
Ohio State over Texas
Championship:
Ohio State over UCLA, 74-68
And you have no idea how much, as a Michigan fan, that hurts to type.
So jump in to the ESPN.com Tourney Challenge, and join any or all of the groups I’m in (“Daily Quickie Readers”, “D---spin Pants Party”, and “Deadspin Pants Party”) and let’s see just how awful I am at this.
Lata.
Labels: 2007 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, Bracketology, Brackets, I'm awful at this
