The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

2005 NCAA Men's Basketball Tourney Picks

Yes, there is a method to my March Madness. Contrary to popular opinion, I actually do pay attention to what I pick. It’s not like I just throw darts at the brackets and see who they hit. Does that make my picks any more reliable than anyone else’s? Nope. Does it mean that I have a good chance at beating you when you sign up for my Division on ESPN.com’s Tourney Challenge? Well, keep reading and find out…

By the way… to enter, go to the Tourney Challenge home page and enter “The View From The Couch” as the division you wish to join. The password is “D” (obviously no quotes).

ROUND 1 WINNERS

CHICAGO

Illinois – Nevada – UW-Milwaukee – Boston College – UAB – Arizona – S. Illinois – Oklahoma State

ALBUQUERQUE

Washington – Pacific – Georgia Tech – Louisville – Texas Tech – Gonzaga – West Virginia – Wake Forest

AUSTIN

Duke – Mississippi State – Old Dominion – Syracuse – Utah – Oklahoma – Cincinnati – Kentucky

SYRACUSE

North Carolina – Minnesota – Villanova – Florida – Wisconsin – Kansas – North Carolina State – Connecticut

Wow, not one, but TWO 12-5 upsets this year! To be honest, I’m not a big fan of Georgia Tech getting their heads on straight and getting past George Washington in Round 1, but I don’t have the Yellow Jackets going very far, so if I’m wrong there, no biggie. No other real surprises here. UAB is a solid team, and is better than LSU. The Michigan State/Old Dominion game will be fun to watch, and I would take the Spartans most times. But there’s just something about ODU and those 28 wins – I mean, they couldn’t all have been cakewalks, right?

The one game that could bust my bracket into many, many little pieces is Vermont and Syracuse. I love ‘Cuse this year – I said earlier that they would be the best representative of the Big East in the tourney. But Vermont is a very good team, with a high RPI (15ish) playing against a team that they’ve probably gotten the chance to watch on TV many times. If the Catamounts can find a way around Jim Boeheim’s half-court trap, the Orange could get crushed… (sorry; had to)

ROUND 2 WINNERS

CHICAGO

Illinois – Boston College – Arizona – S Illinois

ALBUQUERQUE

Washington – Louisville – Gonzaga – Wake Forest

AUSTIN

Duke – Syracuse – Utah – Kentucky

SYRACUSE

North Carolina – Villanova – Kansas – Connecticut

Two more upsets to add to the pile, both costing only one state. Maybe I just have something against the state of Oklahoma. Something tells me Utah can beat the Sooners, and I’ve liked Southern Illinois since last year’s tournament, when I had them going to the Final Four. This year, not so much. But I do think they can handle the OK State Cowboys.

I also realize that as recently as two weeks ago I said BC wouldn’t make it out of the second round. Well, I don’t think Alabama will be able to win their first round game, and even if they did, I don’t think they’d be able to beat BC in Round 2. Don’t worry – the Eagles aren’t flying past Illinois anytime soon…

ROUND 3 (SWEET 16) WINNERS

CHICAGO

(1) Illinois – (3) Arizona

ALBUQUERQUE

(4) Louisville – (2) Wake Forest

AUSTIN

(4) Syracuse – (2) Kentucky

SYRACUSE

(1) North Carolina – (3) Kansas

Look at those seedings there… Nothing lower than a #4 seed has a chance to make my Final Four? I must be doing something wrong.

In all fairness, I think Duke has the only chance to stop UNC this year. Unfortunately, they’ll draw a hot Syracuse team early, and I don’t think they can get by the Orange. As for the other #1 that I’ve got gone before the Elite 8, well Washington certainly deserves that #1 seed. But Louisville was good enough to get a #2 somewhere else (think… Austin bracket), and has the talent to take the Huskies out.

To me, Kentucky got the biggest break of all the major teams in this seeding process. At 25-5, they were probably worthy of their #2 slot. But they didn’t even win their conference tournament, something that Louisville did, albeit barely. But the Wildcats were rewarded with the #2 in the Austin bracket, meaning that they’d probably have to face the winner of the Duke/Syracuse slugfest, a game that will leave the loser eliminated and the winner teetering on the edge. Kentucky could win that in a walkover. But…

ROUND 4 (ELITE 8) WINNERS

CHICAGO

(1) Illinois

ALBUQUERQUE

(2) Wake Forest

AUSTIN

(4) Syracuse

SYRACUSE

(1) North Carolina

So that’s my personal Final Four. No huge surprises, since we almost never get four #1’s in the final two games. Like I said last week, I still believe that Illinois and UNC will meet in the Championship Game. UNC has the fourth best winning percentage in this tournament, behind Illinois, Louisville and Pacific. Luckily for the Tar Heels, none of those other teams is even in the same half of the bracket. Of course, they still have to worry about the possibility of facing either Oakland, and their stellar 13-18 (.420) record, or Alabama A&M at 19-13 (.621).

And I still believe that this is the year Roy Williams punches his ticket into the Basketball Hall of Fame. He’s only got one more thing to do…

…win six more games.

My pick for the Finals? UNC over Illinois, 84-77.

So now you have all of my picks. Join up on ESPN.com and prove what you’ve got. We’re playing for pride and for bragging rights. Good Luck to you all.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 5:20 PM