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2005 MLB Preview - AL Central

American League Central

Cleveland Indians (93-69)

Minnesota Twins (88-74)

Chicago White Sox (82-80)

Detroit Tigers (73-89)

Kansas City Royals (60-112)

The Twins’ reign atop the AL Central is about to come to an end. Cleveland had the talent on offense last year to overtake the Twins and win the division. Their pitching held them back last season, so they addressed it...

Cleveland Indians (93-69):

Last year they had 32 total team saves in 60 opportunities. Their bullpen cost them 28 blown saves, and probably a half dozen more that didn’t qualify. Their four returning starters combined for only 41 of their 80 wins. So naturally, they added Kevin Millwood with his paltry 9-6 record and 4.85 ERA (not to mention his awful 5 2/3 innings per start). So why am I picking them to take the Central?

Well, they are getting Bob Wickman back as their closer, the position that doomed them last season. Rafael Betancourt and David Riske get to slide back into the setup role where they are comfortable and can excel. Last year both of them spent substantial time at closer, and yet still factored in 21 decisions (12-9 combined record). Personally, I don’t want my closer(s) factoring into 21 decisions in the course of a season, because chances are they either blew the save or the game altogether. Having Wickman back healthy will allow them to use the bullpen the way they had planned to in the first place.

Plus, there is that offense to speak of. The only starter on their team that didn’t give them 10+ home runs was Omar Vizquel, who left for San Francisco and has been replaced by one of the top prospects in all of baseball - Jhonny Peralta. No, that’s not a typo on his name... Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Ben Broussard all had big coming out parties last year, and will probably continue right into this season.

But the biggest reason I’m picking them as AL Central champs? Somebody’s gotta win it...

Minnesota Twins (90-72):

It’s hard to pick against a team that sports the reigning Cy Young at the top of their rotation and one of the best innings-eaters in the game as their #2. But then I look at the rest of their team...

They lost the left side of their infield. They’re probably going to lose their starting right fielder midseason if they aren’t contending. After Santana and Radke, there is an appreciable drop in their starting rotation. They have a great closer and decent middle relief, but not stellar. And if the back end of the rotation falls apart (Lohse, Mays, and the ageless Terry Mulholland), they could be in serious trouble.

And even with all of that, they can still win almost 90 games in this division.

Chicago White Sox (82-80):

Because I’m so bad at math, every division is probably going to have either an 82-80 team or an 80-82 team. Makes the arithmetic easier. In the AL Central, that honor falls upon the Chicago White Sox...

The White Sox were able to address a pressing need by adding Scott Podsednik to the top of their order, and although the bullpen was sorted out by season’s end, there’s still much work to be done. Unfortunately, losing Jeremy Reed to Seattle in the Freddy Garcia deal and Carlos Lee to Milwaukee for Podsednik leaves a gaping hole in the outfield that Jermaine Dye cannot fill on his own.

Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras are not the answers in the starting rotation, although considering the crop of free agent pitchers available when the White Sox finally started to bid, I don’t really know who would have been. Chicago is now stuck with Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, and Freddie Garcia to round out their rotation. Looking around the rest of the division, those five won’t get it done.

Until they learn to open their checkbooks sooner, Chicago will be doomed to mediocrity in the Central division.

Detroit Tigers (73-89):

They finally signed their big name free agent, and all it cost them was five years and the worst contract of the off-season. Magglio Ordonez’ and his two weak knees will be lucky to play in 80 games this year. Fortunately for Detroit, They already have five other mediocre outfielders under contract, so losing Ordonez for an extended period time shouldn’t hurt them too badly... I mean – the guy had his surgery overseas and then refused to discuss his progress or take a physical – he seems like a natural for a guaranteed 5-year contract... What a snow job.

Anyway, back to reality... The Tigers’ pitching will have to be better than their 4.93 Team ERA and .275 Batting Average Against that they allowed last year, both second-worst to only the next team on this list, or the 28 blown saves that tied for the American League worst with Cleveland and Oakland. Even with a little added offense, they can’t keep allowing teams to stay in games.

The pitching is young, and it can only get better. How much better is probably up to the front office. They need to sign a front line starter; a legit #1 that can take over the staff. Too many times they ran out guys who shouldn’t be any more than a #3 against the other teams’ #1 guy. Not going to win too many with that approach.

Kansas City Royals (75-87):

What can I say about the Kansas City Royals?

No, seriously. I’m asking. What should I say?

I’m looking down their depth chart, and I recognize two, maybe three guys. Mike Sweeney, the only “good” offensive player they have, will most likely be traded at mid-season. Angel Berroa seems to have lost the mental game after winning 2003 ROY honors. Terrence Long? Matt Stairs? Is this really it?

OK, maybe the pitching will be better. Hmmm... Zack Grienke – young guy, good stuff, will probably suffer 15-20 “tough” losses this year. Jose Lima? Didn’t he already bomb in KC once?

I wish I didn’t have to write about the Royals. I actually feel bad as I’m typing this. But then I think:

“Somebody has to be the farm team for the Yankees this season...”

Strangely, I don’t feel any better.

posted by Big D @ 5:48 PM