2004 NFL Recap & 2005 Predictions

OK, fair warning. This is going to be my last real post for a week or two. I’m taking some time to prepare for my massive 2005 MLB Preview (expected publish date: February 24^thish). I may throw a couple of paragraphs up here about NCAA basketball (or even – gasp – NBA basketball), or whatever I happen to think may be relevant information about life, poker, or poker-life. I’m also hoping to land a gig doing this kind of stuff for real, so perhaps I’ll just do a bunch of “Quick Thoughts” for the next month until Opening Day.

In any event, I guess I have to make this one count…

Today, I’d like to recap the 2004 NFL season and point an eye towards 2005. I guess it’ll have to be in a “Quick-Thoughts” style, but these are actually long thoughts, not so quick. Oh well…

Thoughts while wondering why Freddie Mitchell still gets interview requests…

- Freddie - buddy, pal, jackass… You’re out of a job in the next year, maybe two. Pre-TO you averaged about 23 catches a year. This year, you had 22. I don’t think Terrell is really cutting into your playing time very much. As for throwing Donovan McNabb under the bus for being physically ill, well, let’s see how many passes he throws your way next year. And finally, did you not learn anything after calling out the Patriots’ defense a week before the game? Now you’re calling the entire team “little girls”… I mean, do you have a death wish or something?

- Glad to see Bill Belichick in full sweatshirt attire during the Patriots’ celebratory “Rolling Rally” through downtown Boston Tuesday. Wouldn’t have felt right if he had been in a button-down shirt or, God-forbid, a suit…

- By the way, any chance that any future sports-related parades in Boston could be scheduled on weekends? I know players want to go home after the season, but fans have commitments during the week (work, school, etc.) that cause us to miss parades. I’m 0-4 in victory celebrations, and I lived in Boston for the first one. (Aside: I was scheduled to work at the top floor of One Beacon Street office of my company for the first Patriots celebration, meaning that I would have been overlooking City Hall Plaza from one block away and 36 floors up for the celebration. Unfortunately, my schedule got changed and I got called out to West Roxbury for the day, forced to watch it on a TV screen in the cafeteria. I was less than pleased.)

- Alright everybody… get ready, it’s time for…. The Pro Bowl! Can you feel the excitement in the air? Me neither.

- Had to update my personal Boston wallpaper. Much better now… Enjoy! (Optimized for screen resolution of 1280x1024)

As for the 2004 season, it ended exactly the way that just about everyone said it would – with the Patriots beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl. There were a few surprises along the way (seriously – who saw San Diego and Pittsburgh coming…) but for the most part it was a very good, uneventful season. Peyton had huge numbers and fell apart in the playoffs, the Lions, Bears, Cardinals and Giants still sucked, the Redskins overpaid for players that they didn’t need, etc.

The only really good stories of the year were Peyton’s record chase (which actually fell short of expectations – I can remember on Thanksgiving thinking “God, he might throw 60 this year”) and Ben Roethlisberger coming out of nowhere to roll Pittsburgh to 15-1 and the AFC title game. Other than that – name me one really good storyline all year:

- The Patriots? Already been done.

- The Eagles getting through the NFC title game? Means nothing without the Lombardi trophy.

- San Diego getting back to respectability? Sure, except for Schottenheimer’s brain fart to cost them the playoffs.

- Two 8-8 teams making the playoffs in the NFC? Not exactly a beacon of hope for the state of the league.

- Brett Favre leading his team to another postseason? And how’d that work out…?

I think 2005 will be better. I think it will be more exciting. I think that the mediocrity we saw in the NFC this year will be replaced with better play and more quality teams. In fact, here is what I think we can expect to see in 2005.

(Note: If even two of these things happen, I’m calling this a successful set of predictions. Considering I went 1-5 with last year’s predictions, I just want to double that number.)

- The Patriots will make the Super Bowl again. I realize I’m not exactly going out on a limb here, since they are the favorites (at 4-1) to repeat. Of course, Indy is 5-1, and I don’t think they’ll make it out of the first round.

- The NFC team will be… aw hell – does it even matter? I would like to take Philly, since they’re not losing any major cogs. But everyone is taking Philly, so I’ll change it up and say that the NFC representatives will be from the great state of Georgia. I think that Atlanta had the defense this year, and will find a way to get the offense going.

- Don’t overlook these teams next year: Detroit (huge sleeper potential in the NFC – young team, lots of talent, possible home-game Super Bowl…), Miami (can’t get any worse, can they?), Cleveland (defense just got instant “Cren-ibility”, just needs the players to actually implement it), Buffalo (Drew will be shipped out, let’s see what Losman / McGahee combo can do…), Jacksonville (came close to busting the playoff bracket this year), and Oakland (sure, why not).

- Drew Bledsoe will be the starting QB in Chicago, Baltimore, San Francisco, Dallas or Miami next year. Chicago and Dallas desperately need a QB, San Fran might want to spend the #1 pick on a different position (Mike Williams/Braylen Edwards – they already have Barlow at RB) and Miami has basically dismissed Jay Fiedler – they could draft at RB and put Drew right into the mix. Baltimore has a strong offensive line and a great defense – exactly what Drew needs. In truth, he’d be a good fit in any of those places, but I think he’d be happiest in San Fran – close to home, young team that he could teach, great Tight End (Eric Johnson as the new Ben Coates?) and if they draft a marquis Wide Receiver… sounds like a plan, no?

- Of course not – I suggested it. It will never happen now.

- Kurt Warner will fight for a starting job one of the four cities that Bledsoe doesn’t end up in. He’d win it in Chicago or Dallas, but probably back up in Miami, Baltimore or San Fran.

- The idea of the NFL building a massive retractable-roof stadium in Vegas and rotating the Super Bowl between Miami, new Orleans and San Diego with Vegas getting it every other year seems to be picking up steam. A lot of people have commented on it, either in columns or on radio shows, etc. Personally, I think it’s a great idea. My only question is this: What about New York if they get a retractable roof? Or LA if they ever get a team? Do they get added to the rotation? Do they bump another city out to the bullpen? How would this work?

- Unfortunately, it will probably never happen. Vegas has this rule where you can’t gamble on sporting events held within the city, or maybe it’s the state, I can’t remember. Either way, the Super Bowl is the biggest single sports betting day – you think Vegas wants to lose that action? Maybe they could amend the rule to only allow small bets or something, or else build the stadium a mile over the city limits.

- Edgerrin James, Shawn Alexander or Rudi Johnson. If I’m the Dolphins, Bucs or Bears, I jump on one of those guys pretty quick (Or make sure to draft a good RB with my first pick). If I’m the Bengals, I try to find a way to hold on to Johnson cheap. And if I’m the Cardinals, I quit.

- Randy Moss to Oakland for Philip Buchannon and the #5 overall pick? If I’m the Raiders, why don’t I make this move? Buchannon isn’t exactly a stud DB, and is there going to be a more proven commodity at the #5 slot? Don’t forget, picks that high command quite a salary. I suppose if Cedric Benson slips that far (which he won’t) then maybe, but Moss is the perfect fit on this team – he’s a “Me-First” guy, he’s a talker, and he’s an underachiever. That just screams Silver and Black!

- Other possible Moss destinations: Baltimore (Randy Moss and Ray Lewis on the same team – there aren’t enough microphones in all of Maryland), Dallas (Bill Parcells has an effect on loudmouth head cases – just look at how Keyshawn turned his career around in ’04… uh, bad example), Seattle (finally, a receiver that can actually CATCH – at least when he wants to…), Green Bay (just for the sheer comedy…), Indianapolis (won’t happen, but can you imagine that?), Philly (better compliment to T.O. than Freddie Mitchell), Denver (actually not a bad option – could Champ Bailey be on the move again?), Washington (very likely destination in exchange for Fred Smoot), Atlanta (hmmm, they have young DB’s and a couple picks to spare… Mike Vick to Randy Moss, as the rest of the NFC shudders with fear).

- Maybe New England? It would be fun to see if Moss would drink the Belichick Kool-Aid in exchange for a ring.

- With no knowledge of the upcoming draft or Free Agency period, here are my quick predictions for the 2005 playoffs (I GUARANTEE that I will have at least one of twelve teams correct; maybe even in the right seeding as well. Law of averages and all…)

o AFC Teams

1) New England (13-3)

2) Indianapolis (12-4)

3) Jacksonville (11-5)

4) Pittsburgh (10-6)

5) San Diego (10-6)

6) Baltimore (9-7)

o NFC Teams

1) Atlanta (14-2)

2) Philadelphia (12-4)

3) Green Bay (12-4)

4) St. Louis (10-6)

5) Detroit (10-6)

6) New Orleans (9-7)

- I know; I’ve got no shot here. It’ll be fun next January to look back at this and say “Damn D – what were you thinking?” I know I’ll get a kick out of it. And if I’m even close to being correct… Nevermind – I won’t be.

Quote of the Week

I’m going to keep it simple, and football focused this week. Not even going to take a cheap shot at a friend or relative. My favorite quote of the week came during Terry Bradshaw’s interview of Tom Brady immediately after the Super Bowl:

Bradshaw: “Tom, you realize it’s not supposed to be this easy…”

Sums it up nicely for me.

I’m not sure what to do with myself now; I can’t ask for anything more as a sports fan. My football team won back-to-back titles, my baseball team is the reigning World Series champion, “my” basketball team is in first place in the division (with a sort of “World’s Tallest Midget” status) and my hockey team is undefeated. Even college sports around Boston are going well, with Boston College ranked #1 in college hockey (suffering a loss to another Boston team – Boston University) and BC basketball is #4 (for now). Not that I’m a big BC fan or anything…

I think I just lost half of my readers – the BU crew is currently plotting my demise.

Alright everybody. That’s all for now. I’ll see you in a couple weeks, or whenever I drop some more “Quick Thoughts” on here.

posted by Big D @ 9:54 AM