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2004-05 Hot Stove winners & losers - Part One (NL)

“It may get hot, but you don't have to shovel heat.” – Taken from a posting on the Sons of Sam Horn (SoSH) message board by a member who moved from Rhode Island to a warmer climate years ago.

You have no idea how true that is until you’ve tried to dig yourself out from a six-foot snow drift, or had to put towels in every window of your house because they all spring leaks at the same time. What a week…

So now you can understand why this post is so much later than the normal schedule I’ve been keeping. I wanted to get this up here on Thursday, but I had a very long, and bad week. Between the weather, and the 9-5 job wearing on me, this got delayed. A lot. And considering the topic, and the research I had to do for it, well you get the idea…

Quickly, before I get into my chosen topic for today, I’d like to touch on the Super Bowl. Yes, I have a whole week to do that – that’s fine. I’m sure I’ll have more to say next week. Anyway, I’ve heard about eleventy-bizillion (yes, I know that’s not a real number) football “pundits” talking about the impact that Terrell Owens could have on the game if he plays. Does anyone really think that it matters?

If there’s one thing this Patriots team is known for, it’s not getting too emotionally attached to the game. Normally, when a star player comes back from a terrible injury just in time to carry his team on his back (Willis Reed, Curt Schilling, etc.), it not only energizes his team, but it demoralizes the opponents. With the Patriots, the only thing that might demoralize them would be three first-half turnovers and a halftime deficit. And I don’t think Owens would have much to do with the turnover part of that…

Let’s put it this way: I’m sticking with my original pick of Pats 34-20 (for now). If TO plays, and plays effectively, maybe it’s 34-24. If he’s a decoy, stays at 34-20. And if he never touches the field, it might get worse.

The real storyline should be the number of arrests we’ll see between the perpetually drunk, angry Philly fans and the perpetually drunk, happy Pats fans…

One last thought on this game. I have a bunch of Giants’-fan friends (I want to hear from you on this one), and I was wondering: who do you cheer for next week? None of you are real big Pats supporters, but the Eagles are sworn enemies. Will you even watch the game? Just wondering…

Onto the real topic for this post. There are less than 19 days until Spring Training officially begins. I know – it seems like just yesterday I was laughing at my Yankees-fan friends and being carried out of a Boston bar, reveling in the Red Sox’ success. Actually, that very well could have been yesterday. Anyway…

So who got better since the year ended? Who got worse? Who did nothing, and who made all the right moves? It’s time for my “2004 MLB Hot Stove Winners and Losers…”

Now, I understand that there are still a couple of “big-names” available on the market, most notably Sammy Sosa via trade and Magglio Ordonez via free agency. But those two aside, let’s see what’s happened since last we talked baseball…

(Part One today – National League. Part Two Monday – American League)

Top 5 WINNERS

(Honorable Mention 6^th – Reds. Nice job with the under-the-radar signings.)

5) Florida Marlins

Looking at the list of subtractions, it would be easy to think that the Marlins are in worse shape now than they were in October. But then you realize that they have replaced quantity with quality. Carl Pavano and his $40M for Al Leiter and his $8M. That allowed the contract extension with Paul LoDuca. Armando Benitez or Carlos Delgado, with Guillermo Mota closing next year? Florida’s done a nice job of reloading on a sparse payroll. They’ll make a solid Wild-Card run in ’05.

4) St. Louis Cardinals

The additions of Eckstein and Mulder alone make up for every single loss on the right side of that table. The fact that they upgraded their bullpen and retained Matt Morris (who probably won’t pitch in ’05) is another plus. St. Louis was already dominant on offense – I don’t think losing Renteria and Womack will really hurt them too much. And with the weak NL Central, there’s nothing standing between them and another division title.

3) San Francisco Giants

Are you kidding me? They made these moves, and I can’t even put them higher than #3 in the entire National League? Kinda tells you something about numbers 1 and 2. Anyway, yes - they got older. And yes - there’s not much left from the (bad) trade of Joe Nathan to Minnesota. But they finally got Barry Bonds some protection in that lineup with Alou, they got perennial Gold Glovers at shortstop and catcher, and they solidified their bullpen with Fassero and Benitez. 2005 NL West favorites – and it isn’t even close…

2) Atlanta Braves

Pretty ugly list of additions up there, until you factor in the trades. But the biggest losses – Drew, Wright, and Ortiz – were all guys who had never been extremely productive until they got to Atlanta. Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb – both All-Stars. Raul Mondesi, well he’s a head case, but Bobby Cox certainly has a strange effect on head cases (see Gary Sheffield). Plus, the addition of Kolb puts John Smoltz back into the starting rotation, and it puts him there as a #2 or even #3 starter where the pressure won’t be a immense. But even with all of that, I can’t put them at #1, because…

1) New York Mets

Omar Minaya had a blank check this offseason, and he’s more than used it. There’s still a chance he may acquire Ordonez or Sosa before all is said and done. In just three players (Martinez, Benson, Beltran), he has committed about $184M in guaranteed money. The losses are minimal, especially when weighed against the additions (actually, the loss of Mo Vaughn’s contract is HUGE). Al Leiter and John Franco were great guys who probably would have preferred to finish their careers in New York. But sometimes, moves have to be made in the best interest of the team rather than the interests of the players involved. The Mets might not make the playoffs (although they’ve got a helluva shot this year), but they will be greatly improved, and maybe even win the all-important New York back page war.

Top 5 LOSERS

(Honorable Mention 6^th – Nationals. Not much to work with, but Christian Guzman, Esteban Loaiza and Vinny Castilla as you “big-name” acquisitions… In THAT market?! Good luck.)

5) Arizona Diamondbacks

You see, this is the exact opposite of Florida. Arizona went for quantity over quality. Granted, it won’t be hard to improve off of a 111-loss season, but look at that lost of Additions. I see a few guys from the “All-Never-Reached-Their-Potential” team. All they’d need would be Junior Griffey, J.D. Drew and Derek Lowe. Speaking of which…

4) Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s tough to call a team with that many acquisition a loser. But $36M for Derek Lowe? He’ll be good in the NL, but not $36M good… $55M for J.D. Drew – a guy with exactly one healthy year under his belt, and it just happened to be in his contract year? Or maybe the $24M deal for Odalis Perez - a second teamer on that same All Never Reached Their Potential team. They needed to replace Paul LoDuca. Paul Bako – not the answer. They needed more offense – J.D. Drew for Shawn Green is probably going to be a wash, not an upgrade. Jeff Kent – past his prime. No longer one of the top five second baseman in the National League, let alone all of baseball. And their “Additions” include names like Scott Erickson, Ricky Ledee, and Wilson Alvarez – these guys were useless five years ago…

3) Philadelphia Phillies

Not too many losses there. But they did lose 2/5 of the starting rotation. Eric Milton and Kevin Millwood – not exactly marquis names. But Jon Lieber isn’t exactly a blockbuster replacement either. The Phillies only needed to do a couple of things this offseason – upgrade the rotation, add offense (preferably in centerfield i.e. Beltran). They downgraded the rotation (Terry Adams might be the new #5) and they never even entered the Beltran foray. Not looking too good in Philly country right now, no matter which sport you follow…

2) Houston Astros

Normally, this wouldn’t be such a bad offseason for Houston. But after last year’s run and the expectations that were built for this team around the resigning of Clemens, Beltran and Kent, only getting one of the three has to hurt. Especially when the one you get is not The Best Overall Player In Baseball. Plus, being forced to shell out $18M for one year with Roger is not exactly stellar GM work either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Clemens waived or traded late this season; you know – when the Astros are 10 games out of the race…

1) Chicago Cubs

So, your most productive hitter and the best #5 starter in the National League are gone, and they’re replaced by… who? Oh, that’s right. The Cubs still have no left fielder and are short by a starter. I admit – their starting rotation was the deepest in the majors. Clement was a #5 behind Prior, Wood, Zambrano and some guy named Maddux. But he’s still a helluva pitcher, and will probably be the #2 in Boston. Nomar for $8M is not a bad deal, especially since he’ll be playing for (another) contract. Scott Williamson, if healthy, really helps the bullpen. But losing Alou and keeping Sosa are two moves that are probably going to doom Cubs’ fans to another long winter next year.

OK, that’s it for the National League. I’ll write the American League side of the story next week. And, as always, the moves not yet made (Sosa, Ordonez, etc.) could have a major impact on who stands where. At least in my mind.

And lastly, the Quote Of The Week:

My mother and I were discussing the Oscar nominations a few days ago (well, I was talking, she was listening. That passes as a conversation…) Now, I expected to get some decent material from her during the Super Bowl, or maybe even in the car during the drive. I did not expect this gift from her a couple of nights ago…

Me: “Yeah, 4 of the 5 best picture nominees are indie films.”

Mom: “Really? Which ones were made in India?”

Me: “Um, no Ma; INDIE, not INDIAN…”

Just too easy sometimes…

posted by Big D @ 10:16 AM