2004 NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round Picks

So, I had this really weird dream last night. I’m not quite sure what to make of it, but it was something new. Very vivid, and it woke me up out of a sound sleep to sit bolt upright in a cold sweat. Maybe you can help me out…

I’m sitting in a room on the third floor of a building on my property, but it isn’t my house. On the television is the Patriots/Colts game, so I can only assume that the dream was taking place this coming Sunday around 4PM. During the game, the TV flickers a little bit, like there’s interference coming from some unseen source.

After about a minute of flickering, I can hear a rumble of thunder outside the window. I open the windows to see what’s going on, and I can see a pretty decent sized storm coming in from the north, meaning that it should be hitting Foxboro. I look at the TV again, but it’s off.

Back to the window; I watch in amazement as lightning strike after lightning strike begins to pummel the ground below me, hitting trees, telephone poles – basically anything over 5-feet tall. Then one hits a tree right near the first floor of the house I’m in, and the thunderclap is so loud that I go deaf and get thrown back from the window.

As I’m struggling to regain my balance and hearing, I look out the window one more time to see a few trees on fire from the lightning, and a tornado making its way towards me.

For some reason, I think it’s the coolest thing I’ve ever seen, and I decide to stay and watch it, since I know I can’t make it to the basement in time. Then I look back at the TV and see the Patriots score the go-ahead touchdown by returning a Peyton Manning INT about 70 yards. This makes me happy, at least until the tornado picks me up and presumably deposits me somewhere far, far away…

I don’t know what happened after that. Tucker decided to jump on my bed and wake me up so I could let him out. It was 5AM. I was not pleased.

Now, I’m no interpreter of dreams. But something tells me that there’s a football-related message buried in there somewhere.

I’m just hoping that the message isn’t “D seems to be losing his mind…”

Onto this week’s picks. Since there are only seven more games in the NFL season, I’ve decided to devote a little more than just the standard three or four lines to each of these picks. You know – actually put some thought into them.

I decided to record the lines back on Tuesday morning to compare how much they would change based upon injury news, weather reports, idiot kickers running their mouths, etc. I was surprised to find that only one line moved at all from 9AM Tuesday until 9AM today (Eagles/Vikings went from Eagles (-9.5) to Eagles (-8.5)), although that was the only game where the O/U didn’t change at all (the rest all shifted half a point one way or the other).

I’m also surprised at how little respect the Jets, Vikings and Rams are getting this week, especially considering that two of the three played pretty damn well last week in advancing to the Divisional Round. But I guess that’s why they keep building casinos in Vegas…

I had a bad week last week, going 1-3 to open the postseason. Even a perfect record from here on out, to push me to 8-3, would not make me happy. I guess I’ll just have to look back with fond memories on my 146-100-10 record in the regular season…

STEELERS (-8.5) over Jets: I’ve changed this pick about fifteen times since last week. But, in the end, the Jets have burned me in each of the past five picks, so why stop now, right? Five things to consider in this game:

A) There has been nothing but controversy surrounding this Jets team for about a week, between Herm Edwards’ spat with his running backs coach, John Abraham sitting out games in which he could play (in deference to his upcoming free agency bid, no less), etc.

B) The Jets didn’t deserve to win last week’s game, but the Chargers deserved it less. The Steelers won’t be as forgiving on mistakes.

C) The Steelers haven’t played in two weeks (and really, it’s been three), meaning that all the injuries are healed, all the schemes are ready, the fans have been waiting for almost a month to waive their Terrible Towels – everything is in place for Pittsburgh to win, big.

D) The Over/Under is set at 35? Do I smell a parlay?

E) I don’t like the Jets.

How positive am I about this pick? Let’s say 7 out of 10. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but if I had to guess, I’d say Pittsburgh, 31-17.

Rams (+7) over FALCONS: I think that the Rams got the luckiest draw of any team in this postseason. They got to play in good weather in Seattle (or, just getting to play vs. Seattle at all), and now they have an indoor game against Atlanta. I think the Rams have a shot at winning this game outright, because of:

A) Only one domed team has ever won the Super Bowl – The ’99 Rams. Now, clearly, these aren’t those same Rams. But they’re still the Second-Greatest Show on Turf, behind the Colts.

B) Mike Vick, in a big game, in the “West Coast” offense. Yes, it’s against the Rams defense. Still, I don’t trust him yet. He’s got one playoff win under his belt – earn another one and earn some postseason respect.

C) The Falcons secondary was mediocre, at best this year. Their defense line has been outstanding, but if Marc Bulger gets even a little time to find Torry Holt downfield, it could be a long day for the Dirty Birds.

D) Warrick Dunn, in a big game, maybe without TJ Duckett to back him up and definitely without his #1 blocking fullback Justin Griffith opening up holes for hit to cut through.

E) Even though the Rams D couldn’t stop the run this year (averages 133 yards against), they certainly did a respectable job against the pass, allowing less than 200 yards per game (198). The Falcons on the other hand allowed an average of 220 yards passing, while only gaining 150 on their own. Something to keep in mind before giving Mike Vick that (ludicrous) vote for MVP…

F) Rod Coleman versus Orlando Pace is going to be a hell of a fun matchup to keep an eye on, or at least as fun as a matchup between two 300+ pound guys on the line of scrimmage can be…

This is actually the second hardest game for me to pick this week. The game itself will be pretty good theater, if only because of Mike Vick and Torry Holt. I’m going to say Rams, 24-20. This year’s Panthers come out of nowhere in the playoffs to advance to yet another NFC title game…

Vikings (+8.5) over EAGLES: This is painful. Vegas is just PLEADING with us to take those eight and a half points, and I’m going to oblige. Just the fact that the line dropped a point in two days tells me that I’m not the only one who thinks that the Vikings can pull this off. And, as if they needed more motivation (Oh, wait, they ALWAYS need more motivation?), if they win this game, they’re guaranteed to play the NFC title game in a dome, either in St. Louis or Atlanta…

A) “Short Arm” Pinkston vs. Randy Moss as the #1 receiver for both teams. Um… gimme a second to think about this one...

B) Like I said before, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper cancel each other out. They’re both strong armed, agile, and bound to throw up one jump ball per game. The difference is, Daunte has an actual receiver to go and get those jump balls.

C) The Eagles haven’t played a worthwhile game since the Dallas game in which T.O. got hurt, December 18^th. Almost a month ago. I know there’s something to be said for resting up and getting guys healthy (see Steelers, Falcons above), but there’s also something to be said for knocking the rust off and staying loose.

D) The Vikings have given no indication all season long that they can be figured out. So why not pick them to pull off a gigantic upset?

E) I think the Eagles will be pressing just a little bit this week, especially with the rumor floating around that no Super Bowl in ’04-‘05 could mean no Andy Reid in ’05-’06.

F) For as horrific as the Vikings defense is, they are opportunistic. They have the ability to make plays – just ask Brett Favre about his 4 INT’s last week. They are a fast, if not talented bunch of players, and I think it will be interesting to see how they stack up against the Eagles as currently constructed. Not to mention that the Eagles D hasn’t exactly been rock solid…

My pick here? Take the Vikes, take the over, and look for a score somewhere around 38-31, Minnesota. And if that happens, look for Andy Reid to be coaching in San Francisco, Seattle, or Green Bay next season…

PATRIOTS (-2) over Colts: OK, I have lots of reasons for this pick. Home Field Advantage. Weather uncertainty. Any weather at all. “Vanderjerk” and his mouth. Peyton’s record against Bill Belichick. But most importantly – EVERYONE IS PICKING THE COLTS. Shouldn’t that send up little red warning lights?

A) There hasn’t been an underdog this heavily bet since the Yankees in the ALCS. How’d that work out? (Had to throw that in there)

B) All the talk about the Patriots secondary boils down to nothing. The Patriots are 8-1 since losing Ty Law, including wins against Seattle, @KC, Cincinnati, at the Jets, and @St. Louis. Those are five pretty good passing teams right there, and three playoff teams.

C) The loss of Richard Seymour (if he is, in fact, lost) is big. He isn’t the kind of guy that gives you tremendous stats every year, but his presence is huge. He requires double-teams at all times, meaning that blitzes can come in free. Not to mention his use as a fullback in short-yardage and goal-line situations. However, the man who would replace him, Jarvis Green, had 3 sacks against Peyton Manning in last year’s AFC title game.

D) The pressure is not on the Patriots right now. The pressure is squarely on Peyton Manning to overcome New England, Bill Belichick, and Manning’s own past history in this matchup. The question for him isn’t “Does he remember the ’03-’04 AFC title game?” It’s “Did he learn from it?”

E) If this is the last home game for Charlie Weis and maybe Romeo Crennel, I think the Pats send them out on a winning note. Just a gut feeling.

There’s probably about ten or twelve other things I could cite here, but just take this little thought with you to the sportsbook: The Patriots’ defense can stop the Colts’ offense, but can the Colts’ defense stop the Patriots’ offense? If this game is a shootout (and I think it will be), I trust the Pats to hang in there and take it in the end. Prediction? Pats 34-30.

Recap: STEELERS / Rams / Vikings / PATRIOTS

Two home teams, two road teams. Two favorites, two underdogs. If I were actually going to lay bets this week, I’d probably do the following:

1) Obviously, any of the picks straight up.

2) Pats/Steelers/Vikings teaser at 6 points.

3) Four-way parlay (which could pay nicely with $25 on a 10-1 payoff) with the Steelers, and the over in the Steelers/Jets, Vikings/Eagles and Pats/Colts.

4) Seven-way parlay with the above, plus the Pats and Vikings to cover and the under on the Rams/Falcons. (I know, seven-way isn’t really a great parlay. But take a chance, lay $10 and try to get 40-1)

That’s it. I’m considering taking some of my poker winnings and switching it back to my BetOnSports account just for this week. The more I look at it, the more I am talking myself into that 7-way parlay…

Let’s just hope a tornado doesn’t knock out my power before I can place the bet.

posted by Big D @ 9:55 AM