Week 16

Well, that Yankees/Dodgers/Diamondbacks three-team ten-player deal fell apart faster than the Eagles title chances. I have to commend Paul DePodesta for sticking to his guns, reevaluating the deal, and deciding that it did not make sense for his team. The fact that it hurts the Yankees? Well, that’s just icing on the cake… Guess this means that Carlos Beltran should be a Yankee by, what? 9PM? 8?

Let’s get right into this week’s picks. I’m posting this on Wednesday rather than Thursday because (A) I’m taking Thursday as a personal day to catch up on sleep and shopping (yeah, I started too late. Again.) and (B) since there’s a game on Friday (Friday?!?) this week, I won’t get another chance to post before it’s played.

8-7-1 last week, putting me at 125-91-8 for 2004. What do you think the chances are for me to keep my losses under 100, for the regular season at least? On second thought, don’t answer that…

Lines from ESPN.com’s Daily Line: 12/22/04

Packers (+3) over VIKINGS: Very simple, win and they’re in. If GB wins, they win the NFC North. If Minnesota wins, they guarantee at least a playoff berth. This is going to be one hell of a game, and yes, I’ll be sitting on my couch splitting time between PartyPoker on the laptop and the TV.

Raiders (+8) over CHIEFS: A couple of weeks ago these two teams met in Oakland. My thoughts at the time? I took Oakland (+3) with the theory that: “I’m convinced that the Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone.” And now? I’m still convinced that the Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone. Of course, KC won the last game 34-27 – I’d still take that, especially with the nice 8-point line up there…

TITANS (-4) over Broncos: Doesn’t Denver just give you that feeling that they’re playing not to lose? Maybe it’s just me. Of course, the fact that Billy Volek has passed for almost 1,000 yards and 8TD’s in the last two weeks might have something to do with this pick as well. My money is on him ending up in San Fran or Chicago next year – he’s a free agent after ’04.

Ravens (+5) over STEELERS: Sooner or later, I’ll pick against the Steelers and they’ll actually LOSE. I went with them (and the ridiculous 11-point spread) last week, so of course they eeked out a 3-point win over the Giants. This week, they’ll probably win by 20.

LIONS (-5.5) over Bears: That really is a tough way to lose a big game – just ask all those Giants fans that remember the playoff game against the 49ers from a few years back… (’01, ’02? I forget.) Side Note: I fell asleep during halftime of the 1PM games on Sunday. I woke up and flipped the TV to FOX just in time to see the last three plays of the supposed “game-tying” drive, and then the botched field goal. Then I rolled back over and slept for another hour. Yeah, I’m a waste.

Giants (+6) over BENGALS: Only because Carson Palmer is still sore and Jon Kitna looked so horrible last week. Well that, plus Eli actually played like a Manning against the Steelers. Betcha Tiki has a nice day…

Chargers (+7) over COLTS: It’s nice to know that big networks like ESPN aren’t in the business of over-hyping events. I didn’t even know there was a movie about the life of Dale Earnhardt until I flipped channels and caught a couple minutes of it. Then, I guess there’s some record that Peyton Manning is close to getting – maybe they should publicize it more, I don’t think many people know about it. And did you know there’s some big basketball game on Christmas Day? Haven’t heard much about that…

JAGUARS (-7) over Texans: The Jags are really fighting for their playoff lives, and if getting into the post-season means knocking someone’s head off, then so be it. Yes, I’m still amazed that Donovan Darius didn’t get suspended for at least this game, if not next week as well. Jack Tatum made the same hard hit back in the day, and he’s been vilified ever since. Of course the receiver he clothes-lined was paralyzed…

Panthers (+3) over BUCS: Are you kidding me? Carolina loses, in OT, after a miracle comeback, to Mike Vick and the #2 seed Falcons, and suddenly they’re an underdog to Tampa?? C’mon people! NFL Parity note: the Panthers can all but lock-up the 6^th playoff spot with a win in this game – think John Fox won’t have his boys fired up?

SAINTS (-3.5) over Falcons: At first glance, that line looked backwards to me. Then I remembered that Mike Vick and other stars are probably going to sit out the final two Falcons’ games, since they are already cemented into the #2 seed in the NFC. Since the Saints are still fighting for a spot, look for them to play hard all the way, meaning they’ll probably get blown out in both games.

Patriots (-2) over JETS: Before Monday Night, that line would have been at about 6 or so. But after that choke job, it looks like the bookies have a little less faith in the Pats. So do I – if the line had been any higher than 3.5, I probably would have taken the Jets. All I can say is, LET’S GO RAVENS!

Bills (-11.5) over 49ERS: Can you believe that 3 AFC East teams have a legit shot at making the playoffs now? The Pats are in, the Jets have a stranglehold on the #5 seed, and the Bills are just a tiebreaker away from the #6 spot. That being said, I think this game will either be very close (like, 3 points) or a complete Buffalo blowout (like, 20 points) – there’s no in-between here. And just so you know, I originally picked the Niners, but then I talked myself into the Bills. I hate second guessing myself…

COWBOYS (+3) over Redskins: Ok, so it’s a meaningless game between two intra-division rivals. Between two old school coaches who are both suffering through one of their worst seasons. Between two teams with nothing to play for other than pride. And the home team is an underdog??

Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS: I refuse to give a reason behind a pick involving the Cardinals ever again. I just can’t figure them out. Do you realize they still have a shot at the NFC West Title? If there was ever a less deserving division winner…

DOLPHINS (-7) over Browns: Something tells me this matchup sounded just a little bit more exciting back when the schedule came out…

RAMS (-3) over Eagles: This would be a classic “Win one for (insert name of injured player here)” game, if the Iggles stood to gain or lose anything based on the outcome. I think McNabb will sit most of the game, along with Westbrook and Kearse. The Rams are still fighting for the playoffs, so they’ll play everyone. Whether or not that’s a good thing remains to be seen. Who do you think was cringing more at the news of T.O.’s injury – Phily fans or ABC execs?

Speaking of T.O. and Phily, has a collective city’s title hopes ever been dashed as quickly as those of Philadelphia and Eagles fans nation-wide? Maybe Red Sox fans after Curt Schilling went down. On second thought, that worked out OK…

RECAP: Packers / Raiders / TITANS / Ravens / LIONS / Giants / Chargers / JAGUARS / Panthers / SAINTS / Patriots / Bills / COWBOYS / Cardinals / DOLPHINS / RAMS

That’s all I got for this week. If I have a winning record in Week 16, I go in to the final set of regular season games with a shot at less than 100 losses. I don’t think anyone could ever be excited about having a chance to finish a season with less than 100 losses.

Well, maybe Mets fans…

posted by Big D @ 9:10 AM