Week 15
Wow, this 10-hour turnaround time between postings is a whole new thing for me… Give me a second to collect my thoughts.
Hang on…
Still thinking…
OK. That’s better. Geez, I’m so much more awake then I was when I last posted. I’m thinking that I would like to revise some previous statements, but then that would violate my decision to limit my “Topic of the Week” post to only Tuesday and Wednesday. What to do…?
Oh hell. Real quick…
Tim Hudson will not be in Anaheim or Boston. He will probably either stay in Oakland (unlikely) or end up with Atlanta, LA, or the Yankees. God willing, not the Yankees. The last thing I need is to see them get another starter, not to mention Eric Milton who really has no other interested parties.
I like the signings of David Wells and Edgar Renteria, though neither really makes much sense, “Theo”-wise. It’s an aging (sorry, aged) pitcher and a great shortstop, but Boston already has, by all accounts, a great shortstop waiting in the wings for 2006. Maybe Theo made the Renteria signing specifically so that Hanley Ramirez would be available this coming July in a deal for Ben Sheets. That’s about the only explanation I have for it.
OK, no more baseball talk today, I promise. Today is all about football. Well, at least from here on out it is…
So, does anyone remember my Monday “Quick Thoughts” posting? Well, since I’m sure none of you do, I linked it. Anyway, I made mention that although I prefer Dan Dierdorf as a football analyst (not exactly a ringing endorsement) over John Madden, I would take Madden every single time for the comedic value alone. This was BEFORE the Monday Night football game between Kansas City and Tennessee.
Just to make my point for me, Madden decided to unleash idiotic comment after idiotic comment during the first three quarters (I fell asleep after three quarters, at 12:30AM. Ridiculous.) The best of them centered on a touchdown catch by KC’s Johnnie Morton in the second quarter. Morton caught the TD, spiked the ball and proceeded to do “The Worm” in the end zone.
Madden’s call was priceless…
“And there’s J-Mo (yes, he did actually call him J-Mo. I wrote it down between giggles) making another big play… now what’s that thing he’s doing there… (Brief pause for Al Michaels to explain that it was called “The Worm”)… Well, J-Mo (he did it AGAIN) is one of these martial arts guys, so I think that maybe he decided to break out one of his martial arts moves for a celebration. You go J-Mo! (3 TIMES!!)”
You can’t make this stuff up. And you certainly can’t predict what is going to come out of John Madden’s mouth next. Absolutely great.
So let’s get to this week’s picks. Ugly week last week (7-9), capped off by my failure to even pick the Chargers/Bucs game. Very simple explanation? I’m an idiot. More excuse laden-explanation? I’m a blind idiot, who skipped a line on ESPN.com’s Daily Line while writing. Oops. 117-84-7 now for the 2004 handicapping season. I’m falling off my pace of 35 games over .500, and nowhere near my goal of 100. Guess I’ll have to settle for 50…
Steelers (-10) over GIANTS: Damn, do we have to start out with a double-digit line? I mean, seriously, are the Giants that bad? They had a nice, high draft pick and all, and they started the year 5-1. What’s that? They haven’t won since? Their draft pick made a mint off his name recognition alone? Their team hates the coach? Alright, fine. I’ll just take the Steelers.
Redskins (-4.5) over 49ERS: Normally, when two teams that are essentially even meet up, I’ll take the home team. Especially when the home team is the underdog. But this is the 49ers we’re talking about. If it were any other team in the NFL, I’d take the home team. Even the Dolphins – that’s how little I think about the ‘Skins at this point. But this is the 49ers, and this game won’t be close.
Panthers (+3) over FALCONS: Yes, I know Mike Vick has made a living off of torching the Panthers in the past. And I don’t doubt he’ll do it again. Unfortunately, one man cannot carry a team forever. Without Justin Griffith (who they’ll miss more than most people think) this team loses a lot of its running game. Not to mention the fact that they’ll also be without TJ Duckett – he of the 4TD runs last week…
JETS (-6) over Seahawks: I’m not very confident about this pick, mostly because the Seahawks are liable to lay an egg any given week. The only question is whether it will be a golden one. I think Shaun Alexander has a huge game against a weakened Jets defense. I completely forgot about the loss of John Abraham last week against Pittsburgh. Don’t know if it would’ve swayed my pick, but I would have thought about it a little harder. Jets need this one to stay ahead of surging Buffalo, because the Bills aren’t losing this week or next, and the Jets aren’t beating the pats next week…
EAGLES (-12.5) over Cowboys: I hate this game. I hate this line, and I’m giving serious consideration to “forgetting” it. If it was in Dallas, there’s no way I’d give the 12.5. But it’s in Philly, and Dallas sucks. I wouldn’t doubt that Julius Jones goes off again, big-time. But I don’t think that Dallas can keep this one close, late. Especially not if TO still needs his TD catch to put Andy Reid in tights.
LIONS (+3) over Vikings: Maybe Randy Moss could play QB for Detroit… To be totally honest, I’m none to confident about this pick. I’m taking the home dog just because if Harrington struggles (which he shouldn’t against the Vikes’ weak pass D) then there’s no shot that Mike McMahon doesn’t come in and save the day. And if Harrington doesn’t struggle, well, the Lions win. Besides, there’s always the “What the hell is Mike Tice gonna do next” factor.
Chargers (-10) over BROWNS: Think anybody had the Chargers giving 10 points to any team, at any point, back in the preseason? And the offensive show put on by the Browns last week – let’s just say that they could be arrested in about 30 states for indecent exposure. That was horrific. How, exactly, does an NFL team gain a total of 17 yards of offense in a game? Yes, I picked them to cover…
Bills (-1.5) over BENGALS: The Bengals really impressed me last week. While their defense isn’t quite there yet, the offense certainly knows how to get it done. And to be able to run Jon Kitna out there for the injured Carson Palmer is a luxury many teams would like to have. But I still don’t think they’ll win this game – Willis McGahee will control the pace from play #1. This could be his signature game for 2004.
PACKERS (-3) over Jaguars: For as much as Fred Taylor should run wild, and Byron Leftwich could have a monster game, you just don’t bet against Brett Favre at home after Thanksgiving. I’ll keep saying it, and eventually you’ll listen. Or you won’t, and your money will become my money. You know what – forget I ever said anything about this - Go Jags!
BEARS (Even) over Texans: Well, way back when, I said that Chicago would finish 5-11, and Houston would be 8-8. Right now they’re both 5-8. Either I was wrong then, or wrong now. No matter – It’s outdoors in Chicago in December. You think the team that plays indoors in Houston will keep it close? Chicago’s anemic offense won’t even be a problem against Houston’s sieve of a defense.
Saints (+8) over BUCS: Two weeks in a row we get 8-point or bigger lines to work with for New Orleans! Hooray for parity! Problem is, if they keep dominating teams like they did to Dallas, the oddsmakers will make them favorites again. Or the Saints will give all the bookies aneurisms, one or the other.
Rams (-3) over CARDINALS: Here’s all you need to know about betting on any game involving the Cardinals – On the season, they are 4-9. Two of those losses came to San Francisco, in overtime. The 49ers have two total wins on the year. I really hate Arizona…
CHIEFS (+1.5) over Broncos: And we’ve found the winner for Most Ridiculous Line of the Week! The Broncos are reeling, and now they have to travel to what is probably the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL. Wonder how many fingers Jake Plummer will have pointed his way during this one…?
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Titans: Two teams with very little offense, and even less defense. Yes, Tennessee put up huge numbers on Kansas City last week (Vinny, would you PLEASE stop benching Drew Bennett? 6TD’s in two weeks – against Indy and KC!!! - and you missed them all?!). But that was KC. I could throw for 280 and 3TD’s on KC. This one is in the Black Hole, with fans that won’t just scream their heads off, but probably wouldn’t hesitate to rip yours off as well.
Ravens (+7.5) over COLTS: If there’s one team left on Indy’s schedule that can stop them, this is it. The Ravens hit hard, run fast, and will probably control this game right out of the gates. Kyle Boller has even been coming along in recent weeks. I would like to think that Peyton Manning could get the record this week – at home, on live national TV – but I don’t think Indy will even score 21 total.
Patriots (-9.5) over DOLPHINS: I’m telling you, I’m afraid of this line. I was hoping for something around 6 points. But again, that’s why they keep building casinos. You know that if the season ended today, Miami – not San Francisco – would have the #1 overall pick, thanks to the tiebreakers. The Dolphins are 0-4 against the AFC East, and 0-9 against the AFC overall. At least the Niners have those two conference wins going for them (Thanks again Arizona…)
And finally, a personal blogging update. I can truly call this an international site now, since I have suddenly become popular in the UK. If you look all the way at the bottom of this page, you’ll see a little black and white counter box. There’s software attached to that that allows me to see where my readers are located. As of 12/7, I have readers in three countries (US, UK, Canada), and 11 different states (CO, CT, IL, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OH, RI, TX, WA). I also got an interesting hit from the US Department of Justice, so perhaps I’ll stop mentioning my gambling winnings and losses before I get indicted on tax evasion…
Just kidding – I HAVE NO WINNINGS.
Ha, that wasn’t supposed to be capitalized – I hit the button by mistake. But I think it works better that way, don’t you...?
posted by Big D @ 9:36 AM
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