Week 14
Alright, so I’m going to break my promise to you guys a lot sooner than I expected. I’m going to have to talk basketball. Nothing else happened this week. Really, nothing. I can’t talk steroids – everyone’s already bored with that. I’ll talk football later. And baseball free agency? Well, I’ll touch on it, but the real party starts tomorrow with the winter meetings.
So that leaves me with basketball. Good thing too, because I actually did want to add my two cents on the Pistons/Pacers/Fans situation, even though I’ll be horribly out of date. (The Information Age is amazing, isn’t it? A hundred years ago, America could hold a Presidential Election, and the majority of voters wouldn’t know about the results for weeks. Now a fight breaks out in a meaningless professional basketball game, and unless you form an opinion, write it down, and submit it online within two hours, you’re behind the times. Really stunning when you think about it…)
Let me start this out with a qualifier: I didn’t see the fight live. I actually did attempt to watch that game, but fell asleep with about a minute and a half left in the fourth quarter – the fight happened with about 45 seconds remaining. Good thing too, because I was tired, and had I actually seen what happened live, I would have been compelled to join the rest of the pundits and fire up my trusty laptop until all hours of the morning getting my words out to you, my readers. (I love being able to say “my readers” – makes me feel legit. And if there are only like four of you, that’s fine too.)
So imagine my surprise when I woke up the next morning and flipped on SportsCenter, only to hear Bill Walton lamenting the horribleness of what was taking place before his very eyes. Seriously, ESPN ran about twelve full minutes of nothing but fight footage, from about thirty-seven different cameras, and I just stood there, mouth hanging open, debating whether I should go to work late so I could write something, anything, or do what I’m doing now – wait a while, reflect on it, get the facts, and write something meaningful. I chose “B”.
My take? The fan that threw the cup started it. Ron Artest overreacted so much that it’s not even funny. The fans that jumped in to help the guy Artest attacked (the wrong guy, by the way) just added fuel to the fire. The other Pacers’ players that went into the stands should have done nothing but grab Artest and pull him away, rather than going into the stands and throw haymakers themselves.
I’m ashamed to have ever called myself a fan of the NBA. True, I haven’t watched a full game since the 2002-2003 Finals. Sometimes I’ll flip channels and come across a tight game late in the 4th and stick around for the end (Like the Spurs/Lakers playoff series last season, the Duncan/Fisher miracle shots). But to call myself a fan now would mean that I would equate myself with the jackasses that were sitting in the stands in Detroit that night, showering players with beer, soda, food, chairs, and anything else they could grab. I’m not like them – I can’t even pretend to be like them. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Sure, I’m passionate about my teams. And if I were at a Sox/Yanks game in Fenway where a Yankees player charged into the stands (stands, not bullpen…) after a fan, I would probably take my shot if he came after me. Hell, I might even get a laugh out of it. But to throw things at players other than verbal taunts and the occasional heckle is just so beyond the realm of “acceptable” that it boggles my mind. To think that these fans could have been sitting in the stands, thinking to themselves “Hey, maybe if I start throwing chairs at them, they’ll get the idea...” Or, even worse, “Maybe they’ll come after me and I can sue…”
So how does this get fixed? Well, unfortunately, the NBA itself is in dire straits. In the last ten years, scoring and attendance are down, fighting and salaries are up. This sounds strangely like the formula employed by the NHL. You remember the NHL, right? Cute little professional hockey league that has become completely irrelevant in today’s American sporting society? Anybody? NHL?
Right. The NBA is heading right down the same track that the NHL took, only they’re employing people in their league that amount to very little more than a street thug with a jump shot. I don’t want this post to turn into a commentary on American society, but without making sweeping generalizations, look at the facts. Basketball has taken on a distinctly different look in the last 10-20 years.
Back in the 80’s and early 90’s, players genuinely looked like they were having fun on the court. They seemed approachable to the average fan that might bump into them on the street. Today, it would be pretty much impossible to “bump” into an NBA player on the street, since most of them are surrounded by an entourage at all times. Players are more concerned with their salary and their “extra-curricular” activities than with actually playing the games or practicing their skill.
And although I put a lot of blame on the NBA for this, some of it can go back to the NCAA and individual colleges. How many college coaches do you think travel to an inner-city playground, find the best player on the court, and offer them a scholarship to come play at their school. I wouldn’t be surprised if you told me 20%. Hell, 50% wouldn’t shock me. Once these kids get their free ride into college, they almost get a free pass right to the pros. Regardless of checkered past, they are drafted, put into a uniform, given a shoe contract and choice of agent, and handed millions upon millions of dollars just to play basketball. And some of them can’t handle it.
Ron Artest had a history. Period. He wasn’t a model citizen growing up – St. John’s gave him a scholarship. He had run-ins with the law and the coaches in college – the Pacers drafted him in the first round. He continued to get fined and suspended – he signed a shoe contract and started a recording company. Is it me, or does anyone else see a disturbing pattern of complacency and of “looking the other way”. Most of these players have simply been pushed along; never disciplined, never benched, never cut. They just skate along on their talent and get away with whatever they want. Another great example – Latrell Spreewell popping off against a fan the other night. A guy with a long and storied history of being a very angry man. And in this climate of player/fan relations, you’d think he would have known better.
This is the problem. Coaches, College Athletic Directors, NBA GM’s – none of them care about a player off the court. As long as they can play on the court, that’s all that matters. Drugs, women, drinking, gambling, fighting - none of these matter to anyone in a position of power, as long as their star players keep dropping 20/10/5 a night.
Now, I realize that two posts ago I wrote that a player’s career should not be defined by what they did off the field in reference to Pete Rose and Darryl Strawberry. Unless what they do off the field affects how they act on it. This is clearly one of those cases. Artest has issues – I don’t think there’s any disputing that. He needs to be reigned in very quickly before he gets back on an NBA floor, just so that this doesn’t happen again.
There. I’ve said my piece, and I feel better. Oh, I also wanted to pass along a little something I found online while researching Ron Artest. It’s a log from one draft analyst’s review of the class of 1999, Artest’s draft year. I think it exemplifies exactly the point I was trying to make before, about people only seeing the positives. Keep in mind that during college, Artest had a few run-ins with coaches, players, and police…
Ron Artest - St. John's. 6'6" 235. A versatile performer, who at 6'6" 235 can run a team with his leadership skills and unselfish play. He'll stuff a stat sheet like Danny Manning. Passing, scoring, and hitting the boards. He plays with perfect basketball posture, and with passion. He is not a great shooter. He hits threes at a 38% clip. What he does best is get his teammates involved. He averaged 4.3 assists last season (St. John's point guard Erick Barkley averaged 4.5 assists). I see him as a team-guy that in the near future will be a valuable asset to any squad.
Ah, hindsight. It’s a wonderful thing. I especially like the comparison to Danny Manning, another “me-first” NBA head case that never won anything but put up good stats on bad teams. Couldn’t have found a more analogous reference there myself.
On to baseball. Apparently the Red Sox have decided to just recreate the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks roster, since they now have Byung Hyun Kim, Curt Schilling, Matt Mantei, and are still said to be involved in getting Randy Johnson. Guys, I realize that the ’01 D-Backs won the World Series. And I know that these guys did beat the Yankees to do it (although Kim made it interesting). But that was three years ago now. Kim can’t pitch, Johnson’s 41, Schilling is under contract (thank God) for a few more years, and Mantei is coming off of two surgeries last season. You really think this is the best move? Well, I’ve learned to shut my mouth about the moves made by Theo Epstein, so let’s hope this one works out too.
Speaking of Arizona, they have supposedly signed 3B Troy Glaus to a long-term contract. What exactly is the thinking there? The D-Backs are trying to pare payroll this season by moving Johnson and not getting Steve Finley back, yet they sign an aging third baseman with a history of back and arm injuries? Really? This was the best available option? Let’s just say I won’t be picking them to finish well in the NL West again…
As for the rest of the free agents, well Jaret Wright and Tony Womack are Yankees, so they are now on my official shit-list. Jon Lieber signed a three-year deal with the Phillies, which I think will be a good fit for him. He’s a very good pitcher when he’s right. He’s got solid command, and he’ll benefit from the weaker NL lineups (and from not having to face Jim Thome). But the real movement should start after the winter meetings. I fully expect Beltran, Pedro, and Varitek to sign deals by late next week or early the week after.
Oh yeah, speaking of Red Sox free agents, here’s a little word problem for you. 31-year old player “A” is offered a three-year, $27M contract in spring training of 2004, and turns it down. Player “B” is offered a four-year, $60M contract offer in spring training of 2004, and laughs at it. Both become free agents after the season.
Player “A” enters free agency after a disappointing season of 14-12, with a 5.42 ERA. He has not been offered a contract, but is seeking a (ridiculous) 4-year, $48M deal. Player “B” was traded mid season, and after entering his free agency period and realizing that he’s not worth what he once was, he signs a one-year, $8M contract.
So the question is, who’s the bigger chump, Player “A” (Derek Lowe) or Player “B” (Nomar Garciaparra)?
My choice is Nomar, who turned down SIXTY-MILLION DOLLARS, guaranteed!! I mean, at least Derek Lowe will probably get a multi-year offer somewhere worth about $20M or so. But Nomar went from $60M guaranteed to only $8M guaranteed (ha, “only”, pfff…), and has to re-enter free agency next year.
Interestingly, Lowe might just wait a couple of weeks, gauge interest, and then accept the Red Sox arbitration offer, returning to Boston for about $5M for one year, then test the waters again next year.
Either way, they’re both pretty damned stupid for listening to their agents rather than surveying the landscape for themselves.
OK, OK. Let’s get to why you’re really here. Football and the picks. Last week was horribly unkind to me, mostly because I’m an idiot and didn’t listen to one of my own personal rules (one of the ones I didn’t share):
Don’t change your mind. Once you make a pick, stick by it unless there is some major new evidence that you didn’t consider in the first place (injury, trade, act of God, etc).
Anyway, I was 7-7-2 last week, bringing me to 110-75-7 for the 2004 season. Not horrible, still 35 games over .500. But I would have been 10-4 in week 13 had I just listened to my heart, rather than over-thinking things with my head.
This week’s lines are a tad bit insane – five games with double-digit spreads, and all but one with a line of 5 or more. There’s money to be made this week people…
Lines from ESPN.com’s “Daily Line”, December 9th, 2004 – 9AM
PATRIOTS (-11) over Bengals: Consider this, if you will. During one ten play stretch of last week’s game against Cleveland, Troy Brown defended a pass, returned a punt, and caught a ball on offense. That’s pretty damned amazing in today’s NFL. This week, the Pats get revenge for the pre-season drubbing the Bengals gave them. And if you own Corey Dillon in a fantasy league, you win your game this week. Period.
Browns (+11) over BILLS: Listen, I’m on the Bills bandwagon just as much as the next guy. But as good as their defense is, the offense is not balanced enough to get up 11 and stay there. Sooner or later, Bledsoe is going to throw one of his patented “Stand like a statue in the pocket for four seconds, then throw the ball to the nearest receiver begin covered by three defenders” routine. It never gets old, and he never learns.
RAVENS (-10) over Giants: Think it’s time for the Kurt Warner era to resume in New York? Eli is now 0-3 as a starter, the Giants have lost five straight, and at 5-7 they are on the verge of coughing up the Wild Card place that seemed destined to be theirs back in Week 8.
PACKERS (-9.5) over Lions: Remember, never, ever bet against Brett Favre, at home, after Thanksgiving. NEVER…
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Seahawks: I have no idea here. Neither one of these teams really instills confidence in today’s bettor. My prediction? Seventeen lead-changes, twelve turnovers, and a final score of a 38-38. Both teams are that bad right now. My head hurts.
Raiders (+7.5) over FALCONS: I think Atlanta wins this game, but if Mike Vick can’t keep possession of the ball, the season might end a little sooner than expected for the Falcons. As for Oakland, well, Kerry Collins is playing very good ball right now. That’s about the only positive I can come up with.
JAGUARS (-7.5) over Bears: Last week’s ESPN Sunday Night game between the Jags and the Steelers was one of the best games I’ve watched in awhile. Close, fiercely competitive, just an all around great game. Jacksonville deserved to win, but two missed field goals killed them (although I can’t really fault the kicker for pushing the game winning sixty-yarder wide right by a foot).
Saints (+7.5) over COWBOYS: Finally, the oddsmakers realize that New Orleans should never be a favorite. But a seven-and-a-half point dog? Now we can start picking with them. I still say Jim Haslett is a lame duck, but the sad thing is, in today’s NFC they haven’t been eliminated yet. And if Dallas had been able to run Julius Jones all season long, they’d be the top wild card right now…
Colts (-10.5) over TEXANS: Judging by the first time these teams met, I’m saying Manning breaks the record this week. And yes, I will be starting the Colts’ defense Sunday, since I rested them and started David Carr last time, costing myself almost 30 points.
Jets (+6) over STEELERS: The Steelers are beatable people! You want to beat them? Stop the run, and don’t be afraid to throw the long ball. Their corners are beat up, and they are missing their best receiver. The Jets are a team that can stop the run, and with Pennington healthy, they most certainly can throw the long ball.
Dolphins (+11.5) over BRONCOS: I got burned last year for underestimating the effect of the Mile High city in December. But these Broncos are coming off two straight losses, one to a far worse team (Oakland). I’m not sure that Miami wins outright, but I think they’ll keep it closer than 12.
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Rams: That line can’t be right. I’m serious, if that line is right, then I should be running the odds in Vegas. Yes, the Panthers are hot. Yes, the Rams are in a little slump. Yes, St. Louis’ quarterback is Chris Chandler… oh, that’s right. Um, uh, Go Panthers!
CARDINALS (-7) over 49ers: I don’t think I have any more negative comments to write about San Francisco, so I’ll just let them prove my points for me out on the field. Welcome Back Josh McCown, officially out of Denny Green’s doghouse. I say he goes big, locks up the starting position and puts his team in position to pass Seattle in the standings next week.
Eagles (-9) over REDSKINS: I’m not taking one home underdog this week, mostly because the only ones are the Skins against Philly and the Texans against Indy. Not much of a choice. Philadelphia just dismantled Green Bay last week with a kind of surgical precision that I hadn’t seen since, well, since the Patriots game about an hour earlier.
Chiefs (+2) over TITANS: So Larry Johnson ran for a big day last week against the Raiders? And here I didn’t even know “Gran-ma-ma” was still even in the league… I know it’s a lousy, dated joke. But what else am I going to write for this pick? “Two terrible teams battle it out, LIVE, on Monday Night Football!” Let’s hear Hank Williams write an intro for that one…
Recap: PATRIOTS / Browns / RAVENS / PACKERS / VIKINGS / Raiders / JAGUARS / Saints / Colts / Jets / Dolphins / PANTHERS / CARDINALS / Eagles / Chiefs
That’s it and that’s all folks.
posted by Big D @ 10:01 AM
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