Week 17
Two quick notes before we jump into the picks…
First – I’ve received word from a friend that I’ve been writing too much with my heart and not enough with my head, specifically in reference to my statement that the Bills and Broncos would claim the final AFC Wild Card spots over the Jets.
My response?
Dear Chinzilla,
The Jets looked bad last week. In fact, they’ve looked bad against just about every above average team they’ve faced this year. They are going on the road to play a team that is also fighting for a Wild Card berth. The Rams have only lost 3 of their last 25 or so home games. For as bad as St. Louis is, I don’t think the Jets want it enough. Besides, it’s the Jets.
Thank you for your continued interest in my writing and opinions.
Sincerely,
-- D
Guess that about covers it. Secondly, just a fun little story for you to enjoy. One of my co-workers gave me a 2005 Red Sox “Official Team Calendar” yesterday. Lovely gesture, since he knows how much I live for the Sox.
After opening it, I noticed something interesting. The player photo for January was…
Nomar.
Yes, the starting shortstop for the Chicago Cubs. I checked the dates to make sure that it wasn’t a 2004 Team Calendar, but there it was, in big print. “2005 Official Team Calendar”.
Then I kept looking. June is Derek Lowe (unsigned, but probably not coming back to Boston). December is Gabe Kapler (2005 will be spent eating sushi and feeling really tall).
Surprisingly there was no mention of Pedro Martinez anywhere in the calendar, which leads me to believe that it was a foregone conclusion that he was leaving.
Of course, Curt Schilling got October…
Onto the picks for Week 17! Had a good showing last week at 11-4-1, to give me a legit shot at staying under 100 losses for the year. 136-95-9 Overall, meaning that if I’d had enough cash to actually lay some real bets this year, I’d probably be up about four or five grand. Bah!
49ers (+14) over PATRIOTS: Told you this line would be at least 14 points. All reports here say that this will be treated like an exhibition game for the Patriots – starters play one or two series, then it’s the second and third-teams the rest of the way. I still think New England will win, just not by two TDs.
BILLS (-9) over Steelers: Pittsburgh has no reason to even try in this game. They’re probably going to go the exhibition game route as well and let people rest for two weeks with the bye. Buffalo is going to lay it all on the line for this one – Ralph Wilson Stadium is gonna be rockin’!
Dolphins (+11) over RAVENS: This is going to be an ugly, ugly game. If the final score were 6-3, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. Plus, we get the added treat of seeing Sage Rosenfels compete against Kyle Boller to see who can set the all-time record for lowest QB passer rating… Wait; doesn’t Eli Manning already hold that?
Vikings (-3.5) over REDSKINS: I know, home underdog… I think the Vikes still have a nasty taste in their mouths from the way last year ended, and they don’t want to let it happen again. All they have to do is win and they won’t have to worry about it.
Bengals (-3) over EAGLES: How many times in your life will you get to read something like that? The Bengals… are three point FAVORITES… over the Eagles. The Bengals… are three-point favorites… over the best team in the NFC. How can you not bet with them?
BEARS (-3) over Packers: The Packers can’t rise or fall in the NFC seedings, so they’ll probably rest players after halftime. Of course, they could also have a 21-point lead at halftime, so this pick might become useless…
Saints (+8) over PANTHERS: Before you go reminding me that I picked Carolina to grab the last Wild Card slot… The Panthers will win this game. But I think New Orleans is going to do one of two things. Either (A) Show up big time, play hard, and really make this a battle, or (B) Do what they’ve done in big games for the last five years – roll over and pack their bags for the off-season. Personally, I think (A) is more likely – it’s time for this team to step up and actually try.
TITANS (+3) over Lions: Man, how fast did the Billy Volek bandwagon breakdown? Don’t worry – he’ll come back in a big way against a porous Detroit secondary. Volek to Bennett, Volek to Mason, Volek to Volek - don’t count it out, the way he’s been playing…
RAMS (+3) over Jets: Chad, it’s a privilege, not a right, to play in the NFL. And it’s an even bigger privilege to make it to the playoffs. Why don’t you go out there and prove to me that you’ve earned that privilege, then I might get off your case… Nah.
TEXANS (-10.5) over Browns: If San Francisco finds a way to win against the Pats, which is entirely possible, then the Browns would have the #1 overall pick locked up, assuming they don’t blow it by winning this game. Let’s see – Matt Leinart, Jason White, Mike Williams, Braylen Edwards, Cedric Benson – that’s five reasons right there for Cleveland to give up now.
CARDINALS (-3) over Bucs: The Cards are favorites?! Run away, RUN AWAY! Personally, I’m stunned that they actually covered a game for me last week. I’m telling you – with a running game, a decent QB, some better special team players, and maybe an average defense, this team could contend in the NFC West…
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Falcons: Yet another game between a team with something to play for and a team with nothing to gain or lose. Michael Vick is starting this game… Why? Is Jim Mora’s stress level too low? Does Arthur Blank really need a heart attack? Let him rest and get his arm healthy – two weeks can do wonders for a body.
BRONCOS (-9) over Colts: Denver fans, meet Jim Sorgi - A.K.A. “The guy who plays quarterback when the game doesn’t matter”. He’s not quite as flashy as Peyton, or as skilled, or as big, or as talented. But he’s the QB for the better part of this game. Enjoy your late Christmas present, and welcome to the playoffs.
Jaguars (NL) over RAIDERS: No line has been posted for this game yet, but I’ll guess it’s going to be at about 2. Assuming Byron Leftwich can still see straight, he should pick apart this defense. But this will be too little, too late for the Jags playoff hopes – last week’s collapse just killed them.
CHARGERS (+3) over Chiefs: Two teams with nothing to play for. The difference here is that the Chargers second-team could still beat up this Chiefs defense. Look for Brees, Tomlinson, Gates et al to get a breather early. San Diego fans have been waiting awhile for their team to get this good – hope it was worth it. See you in Gillette in late January…
GIANTS (-3) over the Cowboys: I have no rationale for this, other than I don’t think any Manning could possibly go 0-for- an entire season. Not even this one.
Recap: 49ers / BILLS / Dolphins / Vikings / Bengals / BEARS / Saints / TITANS / RAMS / TEXANS / CARDINALS / SEAHAWKS / BRONCOS / Jaguars / CHARGERS / GIANTS
Wow, lots of home teams this week. OK guys, let’s just make sure we go no worse than 12-4, and I’m home free… (Actually, I’ll be “car paid off…”)
Have a safe, Happy New Year, and I’ll see you all in early ’05.
posted by Big D @ 10:12 AM
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