2004 NFL Awards Show
Gee, and I thought my site was popular overseas before…
I checked my stats earlier today, only to find that in the last two weeks I have been read in the US, UK, Canada, Mexico, Iceland, Japan, China and Singapore. Wow. I’ve also gotten almost 500 hits this month alone, which make me very happy to know that my words are getting out there (although I can’t imagine how many people in China, Japan, Iceland and Singapore are Red Sox/Patriots fans…) My thanks to everyone who reads this site regularly or just once, and even bigger thanks to those of you that have passed me along to friends and others who care about sports. I write this stuff not only as a way for me to vent but also as a site for you guys (and girls – yes, plural now). If there’s something you want me to mention, don’t hesitate to e-mail me with a question or comment – it’s nice to know what you all think about this drivel. You can also write your comments on each post as you feel necessary.
So let’s get into today’s topic.
“But wait D… You wrote a long post yesterday! You promised no more long posts – that you’d break the long ones up into three shorter ones!”
True, true. But yesterday’s post covered a broad spectrum of topics, one of which (the poker tournament) I meant to write about late last week but got sidetracked. And I still kept yesterday’s post under 2000 words. Besides, this will be fun and relatively short… (I’ll take “Famous Last Words” for 400 Alex…)
Anyway - the NFL season is, for all practical purposes, over. There’s still the matter of which undeserving team(s) will make the NFC wild card and which very deserving team(s) will get left out in the AFC. Do you realize that the Bills, Patriots and Jets – all AFC East teams – would be three of the top five seeds in the NFC, but in the AFC, one of them is likely to get left out (Hint: NOT the Patriots…)? That’s just insane.
Well then, let’s do a little 2004 NFL Awards Banquet and Playoff Predictions, shall we? Now, I realize that my MLB Awards posting actually spanned two days, so I’ll try to keep this shorter and less gimmicky. (If you’ll notice, I’ve now completed the archives portion of the BlogSpot site – everything I’ve written on Xanga is also available there)
2004 NFL Coach Of The Year:
The debate here comes down to three guys. Two of them have been doing it all season with teams that no one thought would compete. The third had a team that everyone thought should be great but started flat before coming back to life.
Bill Cowher: The Steelers have been a surprise to almost everyone who follows football – they made good off-season moves and had a good draft, to say the least. Once they put it together on the field, well, they became the best team in the NFL.
John Fox: The Panthers were supposed to be a lock for the 1 or 2 seed in the NFC. But after the injury bug left them with a team that more resembled my high school JV team than an NFL team, they fell to 1-7. Since then, they’re 6-1 – with the loss an overtime heartbreaker - and on the doorstep of the #6 seed in the NFC playoff race. Amazing.
Marty Schottenheimer: “San Diego is an absolute mess, and it’s a shame.” That was my take on the Chargers back in my NFL Preview post. The whole Philip Rivers fiasco, the way they pissed away the second half of last season, the fact that KC and Denver were in their division – I gave them no shot. Oops.
Winner: Obviously, Bill Belichick and Andy Reid could be counted in the debate as well - as they have been for the last three years – and Mike Mularkey and Jim Mora Jr. are making strong cases. But I think the playoffs will decide this race. If Pittsburgh makes it to the Super Bowl, Cowher wins. Otherwise, it’s Marty.
2004 NFL MVP:
I think we all know where this one is heading, but just for the hell of it, let’s play it out anyway…
Jerome Bettis: Yes, that Jerome Bettis. The Bus. The one-man wrecking crew. Bettis has stepped up his game this year, taking on the role of #1 running back when Duce Staley was injured, and then fading into the goal line back when Staley was healthy. Heck of a year for the big man.
Drew Brees: Yes, that Drew Brees. Did anyone see this coming? I mean, ANYONE? He’s going to finish the year with about 3200 yards passing, and close to 30TDs while most likely staying under 10 picks (3159, 27 and 7 right now). Those are impressive numbers for a guy who was supposed to be benched in favor of a rookie.
Peyton Manning: Yes, that… nevermind. I think we all know what he’s done this year. 4500 yards, 49TDs and only 10INTs will usually win you an MVP award. Winning the division almost locks it up. Go out and win the Super Bowl Peyton, and they’ll name the damned award after you.
Donovan McNabb: If not for Peyton’s numbers, McNabb’s 3900/31/8 would look pretty good. Of course, McNabb’s got that whole 14-2 record, #1 seed thing going for him too. Plus, he’s only got one great receiver to work with…
Terrell Owens: Go ahead; tell me he’s not a big reason that McNabb’s been so great. Pre-TO, McNabb was a mediocre QB. In his best statistical season, 2001, Donovan threw for 3200/25/12 and a 58% completion percentage. This year’s numbers are above, plus a completion number of 64%. That’s a helluva jump right there.
Winner: I want so badly to give this to McNabb, but I just talked myself out of it with the TO argument. They’re going to split votes, and that leaves the door open for Peyton to sneak through, if it’s possible to “sneak through” with the numbers he’s got. I didn’t include Big Ben or Tom Brady only because I wanted to keep this to the top 5 contenders. (Gee, there’s a shock – Tom Brady not getting the respect he deserves. Guess I’m an official sportswriter now…)
2004 NFL Rookie of the Year:
Yes, I know there are separate awards for Offensive and Defensive rookies of the year. Unfortunately, I do not have the time, the resources or the patience to go looking up the numbers on defensive rookies, so I’m limiting this to offensive players only. Again, this award is just about pre-determined, or is it…
Michael Clayton: Best Wide Receiver in the draft on numbers alone. Over time, Roy Williams and even Lee Evans may prove to be better players. But this season, Clayton has racked up some nice numbers on a bad team (78 catches for 1100+ yards and 6TD’s).
Steven Jackson: For as bad as the Rams have been this year, Jackson has helped keep this team afloat. He’s going to supplant Marshall Faulk next year as the #1 guy, if he hasn’t already. That’s saying something.
Kevin Jones: Once he got healthy, Jones ran wild for the Lions. He warrants mentioning, although I don’t think he’ll garner too many votes.
Julius Jones: See above – just replace “Lions” with “Cowboys”.
Ben Roethlisberger: Before the season, how many of us could even pronounce that name? After the season, how many of us will know that he’s having the best rookie QB season ever? 13-0 as a starter isn’t too bad, and while the numbers aren’t overwhelming (2600+, 17, 11, 66%), he just keeps getting the job done.
Winner: Michael Clayton is making a strong case here late in the year, but there’s really no doubt: Big Ben takes it home with a smile (and maybe a Super Bowl ring to boot…)
See, that wasn’t too painful, now was it? Quickly, let me touch on the playoffs and my predictions. Next week I’ll gloat (or not so much) about how my preseason predictions worked out. And if one person brings up the Redskins…
AFC Playoff Scenarios:
The Steelers, Pats, Colts and Chargers have locked up the 1-4 seeds. None of them have anything to play for but pride. While that may seem like a motivating factor, expect them all to rest their stars, much like the Eagles last night.
The Wild Card is still an option for five teams: Bills, Jets, Ravens, Jaguars and Broncos. The Jets and Broncos are the only two that control their own fate. The Ravens and Jags need a LOT of help to back their way in, and I don’t think it will happen.
Odd man out might be Buffalo, a team that could end up 10-6 and miss the playoffs, while they’d be the #4 seed in the NFC. Surprisingly, the Jets aren’t guaranteed a spot yet. If they lose to the Rams, who are still fighting, and the Bills and Broncos (both at home) beat two teams with no reason to play hard (Pittsburgh and Indy) then the Jets would be out. Now THAT would be amazing, and it’s entirely possible.
Three AFC East teams could feasibly make the playoffs, if the Bills and Jets win and the Broncos lose. That’s why it’s the toughest division in football folks.
NFC Playoff Scenarios:
The Eagles, Falcons and Packers have clinched the 1-3 seeds in the NFC. After that, it’s a crapshoot.
The Vikings (8-7), Saints (7-8), Panthers (7-8) and Rams (7-8) all have a shot at the wild card. At least one 8-8 team will make the playoffs. Seattle (8-7) has clinched at least a wild card. Both the Seahawks and Rams are still alive in the NFC West race.
The Vikings and Seahawks are the only teams with “Win and you’re in” games. With wins, the Vikes would get the #5 seed and the Seahawks would get the #4. As for the rest of the picture, well, who the hell knows?
The mere fact that the Saints have a legit shot to make the post-season is a disgrace. New Orleans becomes a big fan of the Jets (vs. Rams) if the Saints can beat the Panthers in what will be the closest thing to a “Play-In” game for the final spot.
Much like the Jets, the Vikings (another team that should’ve clinched weeks ago) could be left in the cold here. If they lose and the Rams and Panthers win, Minnesota will be stuck with another long, cold winter to figure out what went wrong.
The most fun scenario involves the Rams, who clinch with a win vs. the Jets and a tie between the Panthers and Saints. If that happens, expect an overhaul of the overtime system before the 2005 season…
PREDICTIONS
AFC:
Bills and Broncos make it. Both lose the wild-card game on the road - @ Indy, @SD - both would win if they had the home field. Chargers upset Steelers in Pittsburgh, while Patriots handle the Colts at “The Razor” (best term Dan Dierdorf has ever come up with). Pats take care of San Diego in a snowstorm to advance to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.
NFC:
Vikings and Panthers make it – Seahawks “win” the West. Vikings upset Seattle and Panthers keep it close in Green Bay but ultimately fold. Vikings travel to Philly where Donovan McNabb picks them apart with his arm and feet. Green Bay has to go to Atlanta, and the Falcons defense shuts down Brett and Ahman. Falcons go to Philly in the same snowstorm and handle the TO-less Eagles with ease to advance to their second Super Bowl in eight years – c’mon everyone, let’s do the Dirty Bird!
Super Bowl:
Pats (-6) over Falcons: I gotta take the Patriots here. Something about Mike Vick in a big game against a defense that loves to change things up on a QB. Pats, big. And the dynasty talk begins anew.
OK, I actually feel pretty good about these predictions. To all of you Jets / Ravens / Jags / Rams / Saints fans; sorry, not happening for you guys this year. Try to take care of business earlier in the season and you won’t have to worry about Week 17 playoff scenarios.
posted by Big D @ 11:06 AM
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