Quick Thoughts - Wild Card Round
Thoughts while wondering if the Patriots might open the line as the first postseason home underdog in a long time…
§ Hold on a second, I’m just crunching some numbers here… Hmm… 4 years, $36 Million… 4 years, $39.5 Million… 3 years, $22.5 Million… 3 years, $25.5 Million… 3 years, $21 Million, 2 years, $8 Million. The respective new salaries of Derek Lowe, Carl Pavano, Kris Benson, Matt Clement, Jon Lieber and Orlando Hernandez. You know, I’m only 23 and I can still hit the mid 80’s on a radar gun when my back, shoulder, hips and knees are healthy (which is like a complete planetary alignment) – any shot I could get a deal like that? Guess I’ll have to relearn my knuckle-curve pretty fast…
§ This weekend sucked. Plain and simple. Not only did I have a bad weekend playing poker (horrific, actually), Not only did the Jets actually step up and win a game – leading to the incessant Jets ball-washing that I will have to endure from Vinny over the next five days, Not only did the Mets sign the best available free agent (more on him later) – leading to even more incessant Mets ball-washing from Vinny, but I was sick as well. I haven’t had a worse four-day stretch since games 1-3 of the ALCS…
§ Let’s just recap, shall we? From January 5th:
o Rams (+4) over SEAHAWKS: Like I said in the last posting, the Seahawks are about the least deserving playoff team ever. Just imagine this – if the Rams can get past Seattle, they would go to Atlanta, a team they matchup pretty well against (not much running game, very little passing defense), and get to play indoors on turf. They could win that game, and have a legit shot against the T.O.-less Eagles in Philly at going back to the Super Bowl. Of course, there’s always the Mike Martz factor…
o CHARGERS (-6.5) over Jets: Jets have to fly cross-country to face a far superior team. They’ll probably still be without John Abraham, meaning LaDanian Tomlinson can more or less run wild. The Chargers have an underrated pass defense, and a very highly rated run defense. Explain to me again why I would take the Jets?
o Broncos (+10) over COLTS: No, I haven’t gone insane. Mike Shanahan made a comment after last week’s big win over Indy that makes a lot of sense. The best way to stop Peyton Manning is to keep him off the field. If there’s one team in the NFL that I trust will be able to run the ball down a defense’s throat, it’s the Broncos. I think we’ll see a lot of draws and inside handoffs, plays that set up like passes and then finish up as a run up the middle. Of course, the Colts still win this game, but it would be fun to watch them get knocked back on their heels a little bit…
o PACKERS (-6) over Vikings: Hey Randy, Randy Moss, hey, wait a second! Hey, there’s still a game left! Randy! RANDY! Hey, Rand… aw forget it. It’s Brett Favre, it’s Lambeau, it’s January, it’s the playoffs, and it’s not Mike Vick under center across the line of scrimmage. Besides, there’s no way that they could have three games end 34-31 on a last second Longwell field goal in the same season, right…?
§ So, um, about those picks of mine… Sorry. I think the Vikes and Jets hosed us all, and I have to believe that I was probably one of the stupidest people in America on that Broncos pick. At least I got the Rams right, right?
§ Truth be told, if my money had actually been riding on it, I probably would have taken the Rams and Packers in a two-way, the Broncos and Rams in another two-way, and the Chargers and the over in third separate two-way. I think next season I’m going to put little asterisks on the games I would actually bet…
§ Not that I would have actually won any of those bets either…
§ Know the funniest thing about what I wrote on 1/5 about the Rams, that if they won they would go to Atlanta? Well, that only happened because the Vikings won also. If the Packers had won, the Rams would be going to Philly. Maybe that was a little unnoticed prophecy there…
§ I officially have a new “anti-team” team to cheer against… The Vikings. Seriously. I have never seen a more schizophrenic, dysfunctional playoff football team. They lose to a 5-10 team one week when they desperately need to win, then they go into Lambeau Field and dismantle a pretty damned good Packers team. They can’t play defense all year, yet they come up with big play after big play when it mattered on Sunday. I can’t stand them – they’re making my head hurt. I need to go lay down…
§ Speaking of the Packers… is the Brett Favre era officially over now? That game had all the makings of another classic, until he decided to cough up four picks. Check that, it was five, but one got ruled incomplete – a ruling that actually hurt the Packers… Don’t worry, #4 will be back next year – no way in hell he’s going out like that.
§ Mike Holmgren, Mike Martz, Mike Shanahan, Mike Sherman, Mike Tice… and at least two of them were guaranteed to win this weekend… yikes. I guess that’s an unwritten rule in the NFL – If you’re going to be a crappy playoff team, you are required to have a head coach named Mike.
§ Marty Schottenheimer has to be the unluckiest playoff coach in history. The victim of “The Drive” and “The Fumble” in consecutive years, I would think he was almost anticipating that the overtime field goal attempt by Nate Kaeding would miss…
§ …Although, I can’t really blame the kid, and I can’t let Marty off the hook. A 40-yarder isn’t exactly a chippie for any kicker not named Vanderjagt or Vinatieri, let alone a rookie, in overtime, in the playoffs. Why even run those three plays with Tomlinson if you’re just going to kick from the same spot anyway? At least try to make us think you were going to get closer. If Schottenheimer was willing to settle for a 40-yard kick, then he’d better be ready to accept full blame for the miss.
§ OK, OK. I’ll be the first to admit when I’m wrong. The Jets looked decent Saturday. Not good, not great. Decent. Pennington played very well. No doubt about it. He’s still not throwing with the same motion he had earlier in the year, but whatever he’s doing, it’s effective. But just like the way they got into the playoffs in the first place, they got lucky again on Saturday. They gave that game away, and the Chargers gave it right back.
§ It’s amazing, in this day and age of football parity, that in the Wild Card round we could have two games between teams that met twice during the regular season, and two games between teams that met once. And even stranger, all four Divisional round games are between teams that played each other this year. Just weird is all…
§ Jets / Steelers II - Back on Week 14, I picked the Jets to cover against the Steelers. I thought that they had the right offense to get the job done, and that if they could stop the run, they would have a chance. I still feel the same way – if they can stop the run, they’ve got a chance. They shut down Tomlinson for most of the game Saturday. I’d feel better about them if John Abraham was back on the line, but…
§ Pats / Colts III – “This time, it’s personal…” Third meeting in less than 12 months. I was actually surprised to find out that the Pats are opening as 2.5-point favorites, considering that all of the football “pundits” have already picked Indy in a landslide. No Ty Law is going to hurt. Peyton is 1-5 against the Patriots since Bill Belichick became the head coach, and 0-5 in Foxboro. Revenge is a great motivating factor, but again, what are the chances Belichick and Romeo Crennel design something that Peyton Manning has never seen before?
§ Rams / Falcons II – Mike Vick vs. Tory Holt – that’s what this game is going to come down to. Who will have the bigger offensive impact – my guess is Vick. Besides, the Falcons have a decent defense that can slow, if not stop the Rams. St. Louis is going to get lucky though, because they get one more game indoors before having to go to Philly…
§ Eagles / Vikings II – …Or will they? My advice – take the over in this game. These are two teams that absolutely can’t stop the run, and can’t really cover the pass very well either. McNabb versus Culpepper is a wash, and if Moss is out then the loss of T.O won’t be as big. But when it comes down to it, I’ll take Nate Burleson and Kelly Campbell over Todd “Short Arm” Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell any day. Not to mention the four-headed running back monster that the Vikings trot out for every game…
§ Quickly, baseball. Derek Lowe – nice work buddy, way to be patient. This is a guy that most people thought would be lucky to get $4 or $5 Million in a one-year deal (or even arbitration from Boston), but he waited for the market to develop and was rewarded with 4 years, $36 Million from the Dodgers and owner (and long-time Red Sox die-hard) Frank McCourt. I’m impressed… Not to mention that he’s going to the NL, where he can be very effective with that sinker. Guess that postseason performance really did push his stock up high.
§ NY Mets – Did Fred Wilpon just give Omar Minaya an entire checkbook of blanks and say, “do whatever it takes…”? Not that I don’t think the Mets did the right thing by signing Carlos Beltran; but if Albert Belle, Mo Vaughn, Junior Griffey, Mike Hampton, Jason Giambi, Denny Neagle, etc. have taught us anything, it’s that long-term deals are just not a good idea anymore. Sure, he’s probably one of the three or four best all-around players in the game, alongside Albert Pujols, Vlad Guerrero and A-Rod. And an outfield of Mike Cameron, Beltran, and either Cliff Floyd or Sammy Sosa in RF is still 2/3 of almost a perfect defensive setup. But in seven years, who can say what he’ll be other than probably overpaid. And if the Mets win the World Series in any of the next three years (pause for laughter), I’ll shut up.
Last note. The return of the Quote of the Week (end):
Actually, it happened this morning, driving in my car. I listen to WEEI religiously, and although I don’t often agree with everything that is said, I do enjoy most of it. Especially the stupidity of come of the callers, like the guy this morning that called in to say that:
“…Yeah, I think the Patriots are gonna beat the Colts. But not only that - I think they’re going to win the game by outscoring Indianapolis…”
Now, correct me if I’m wrong here. But isn’t the backbone of most sports the idea that in order to win, you have to outscore your opponent? How else can you win a game? I mean, scoring more than the other guy – that’s kinda the fundamental rule, isn’t it?
That’s it - I’m done. Thanks for your time. Picks Thursday or Friday.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 10:04 AM
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