2004 NFL Playoffs - Championship Round Picks
I apologize for the lateness of this post. I’ve had a rough three-day stretch and hadn’t had an hour to sit down and collect my thoughts, let alone write them down.
Quickly, before I get to my picks, three notes to touch upon…
First, a tip of the cap, a wink of the eye, and a nod of the head to the good people who work my local Dunkin’ Donuts. Well, it’s not really local, but it is local to my morning commute, so that’s close enough. Anyway, I cannot tell you how nice it is to be able to walk in the door and know that the people behind the counter know what I want (extra large French Vanilla hot coffee, extra cream and no sugar) before I even get to the counter. They’ve even gone so far as to start making it when they see me get out of my car so that I can pass the whole line, pay my $2 and go. Not that any of the good people who work there are likely to ever read my writings, but if you should stumble upon this site in the wide world of cyberspace, let me say thank you.
Now, for sports-related stuff. I heard a rumor that MLB.com and the MLBPA have suddenly decided that since Major League Baseball owns the rights to all baseball statistics, they also own the rights to all Internet-based fantasy baseball. As for how true this is, I have no idea. As for how bad of an idea this is, well let’s just say it will make the whole “Spiderman 2 logo on the bases thing” pale in comparison. I can’t even come up with an adequate analogy; that’s how off the walls this idea is.
People have adopted the Internet as the most effective, and therefore most popular way to play fantasy baseball. Now that MLB has decided that they will charge sites to use their stats, does that mean that free fantasy sites, like Yahoo! Fantasy or a host of others, will cease to exist? Will the pay-for-play sites have to charge more? Or will MLB realize their error and either issue a retraction or come off the idea altogether?
I’m hoping for option C. I love baseball; always have, always will. But sometimes I get very frustrated with the way it operates. The game is about the fans, not the bottom line.
Finally, a decision. I have made a decision about my online poker playing. Here’s the deal. I will no longer regale you with tales of bad beat after bad beat, choosing instead to only bring up the subject when either (A) I win (which may be more often than you’d think), (B) The story is too good to be ignored, or (C) You ask me to.
A few different people have told me that they are tired of reading how many bad beats I take online, so I guess it’s time to switch themes. So I won’t even mention last night’s drubbing of Kings full of Aces losing to Aces full of Kings.
See, it’s that easy. I have the will power to do it, I think…
Onto the Conference Championship Picks (lines accurate as of 9AM today).
Last week was another poor showing, at 1-3 for the second straight attempt in the playoffs. I’m now 2-6 for the second season, making me 148-106-10 overall for 2004/05. Although I should mention that I changed my mind about the Jets/Steelers game about ten times before writing the post, and another three or four afterwards…
Falcons (+5) over EAGLES: I don’t think there’s ever been more pressure on one football team to win one game than there is on the Eagles right now. No matter how Donovan McNabb spins it the Falcons have no pressure to deal with – they weren’t even supposed to make the playoffs this year, yet they won their division and cruised in their first postseason game. So, if you’re looking for the nice, bulleted reasons why Atlanta will at least cover, if not just win the whole damned thing:
- Mike Vick made a believer out of me last week. I understand that it was against the Rams, but it was still one hell of a performance.
- 327 yards rushing against a horrible defense like St. Louis still would be about 180 or 190 against a good defense like Philly. 180-190 will probably be enough to get it done on Sunday.
- Freddie Mitchell has been playing in relative obscurity all season long behind TO. But Donovan McNabb has had Mitchell’s services for years now, and he’s never stepped up that big once. I don’t think he can do it twice.
- The Falcons defense is ferocious. Something tells me they’ll key in on Brian Westbrook and the massive target on his back early and often.
- The fans in Philly probably want this one more than the players do. If there is even the hint that something will go wrong early in the game, the fans are liable to turn on the Iggles, and FAST.
- And the final reason why I think Atlanta can win this one? I picked them to win exactly this game three weeks ago. My pick? Falcons 24, Eagles 20.
Patriots (-3) over STEELERS: Last week’s game worried me early in the week. By mid-week, I was thinking, “Well, the Pats offense should be able to score, so maybe it will be a shootout…” By game-time, I wasn’t just on the Patriots bandwagon, I was driving the damned thing right through downtown Foxboro. What does this have to do with this week?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Just like last week’s game has nothing to do with this week’s. That’s why I’m picking the Patriots. Each and every player, coach, trainer, water boy, everyone on this team knows that you don’t revel in or dwell on past games; you learn from them, and you move on…
- The Halloween game in Pittsburgh was the day in which Ty Law and Matt Light got injured, meaning that their replacements were thrown into the mix with little or no preparation. 10-games later, I think they’ve picked up a tip or two along the way.
- Corey Dillon’s impact Sunday can’t even be measured. He will probably pick up more yards on his first touch of the game than the Patriots had in the entire first matchup. New England had only 6 attempts for 5 total yards back in Week 8. That’s ridiculous.
- Ben Roethlisberger thought he had trouble with the Jets’ defense? Just wait until Belichick and Crennel get another shot at him…
- Speaking of Belichick – he’s never lost twice to the same QB in the same season. What makes anyone think he’s going to start now, against a rookie QB no less?
- Pittsburgh is a totally different team than Indy. Indy’s receivers can be busted and intimidated – Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress of Pittsburgh are more than happy to bust DB’s right back. I think there’s gotta be a way to take advantage of this – maybe we’ll see a lot of Offensive Pass Interference calls against the Steelers…
- And the final reason why I think the Patriots can win this one? I picked them to win almost exactly this game three weeks ago. Hell – I even knew there would be a snowstorm for both Championship games! My pick? Patriots 17, Steelers 10.
Just in case you’re wondering, here’s where my money would go, theoretically speaking of course…
- Pats and Falcons teaser at 6-points (lousy payouts, but pretty good chance of winning it – makes Falcons’ line +11 and Pats +3)
- Way too much defense in both of these games. Take both unders (AFC 34.5, NFC 37.5)
- Personally, I’d parlay the Pats (-3), Falcons (+5) and the Pats/Steelers under (34.5). The NFC O/U line is kind of worrisome – both teams have a good defense; both teams absolutely torched their opponents last week. Tough call.
- No matter the outcome of the games, the AFC is currently a 5-point favorite in the Super Bowl with an O/U of 44.5. Just interesting is all…
So that’s it and that’s all. Hopefully by next week the Baseball Free Agency period will have landed it’s last big fish (Carlos Delgado), so that I can begin compiling my upcoming “MLB Free Agency Winners and Losers” post.
posted by Big D @ 1:32 PM
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