Thursday, February 03, 2005

Super Bowl XXXIX Breakdown

(Before I start, I have to share a quick link. I’ve been meaning to link to my friend Tex’s blog for the past two weeks, and I kept forgetting. He’s got two new posts up there that are quite funny. Especially the pictures. The fourth terrorist in the picture for the second article is absolutely priceless.)

OK, it’s here. The talking is over. The speculation has ended. Freddie Mitchell has no one left to alienate. It’s officially time…

I have to make my pick.

Now, if any of you were waiting with baited breath for me to disclose which way I was leaning for Super Bowl XXXIX, then you obviously haven’t read enough of my posts. But while my choice is obvious, how I arrived at it might not be so easy to understand. That’s why I’m breaking this game down, step-by-step, position-by-position, or something like that. Then you’ll get to see this game how I see this game, and you’ll have more than enough material to throw back in my face when I’m blatantly wrong on everything but the winner next Monday morning…

Try and follow along kids, it’s “Big D’s Super Bowl Breakdown!” (Yes, I feel the need to give everything a title now. Unfortunately, I can’t trademark things like this.)

Bill Belichick

COACH

Andy Reid

This is probably going to be the best coached game you’ve seen in a very long time. Both Andy Reid and Bill Belichick are masters of their craft, and I consider them to be the best head coaches in the game today. And while Reid is 9-0 career coming off a bye week, he’s never faced Bill Belichick and this incarnation of the New England Patriots coming off one of those by weeks. Edge: Patriots

Tom Brady

QUARTERBACK

Donovan McNabb

If it were anyone other than Brady, McNabb would get the edge. But I have to take Brady’s success and history of stepping up in the big games into account. When it comes down to it, there’s no QB in the league today that I’d rather have play just one game for my team than Tom Brady, but Donovan McNabb is a close second. Eli Manning is about 300th, right after Tommy Maddox and whoever backs up Brett Favre. Edge: Patriots

Corey Dillon

RUNNING BACKS

Brian Westbrook

Don’t jump all over me here. The Eagles had an abysmal run defense in the beginning of the year, before they got Jeremiah Trottier back into the linebacking corps. Since that time, they’re a completely new defense, and have really clamped down on the running game. Dillon is not a very good pass-catching back, though he’s a much better runner than Westbrook. I give a slight edge to Philly only because Westbrook is such a triple-threat: running, catching, and returning punts and kickoffs. I still say Dillon runs for 100 though. Slight Edge: Eagles

Deion Branch, David Patten, David Givens, Troy Brown

WIDE RECEIVERS

Terrell Owens, Todd Pinkston, Freddie Mitchell, Greg Lewis

Simple train of thought here. I’ll take three good wide receivers and a very good receiver (Branch) over the best in the game (Owens) and three nobodies any day of the week, and twice this Sunday. Throw in the fact that Terrell Owens is probably only saying that he’s at 100% (or 181%, which was a pretty good quote), and it’s not even close. Edge: Patriots

Daniel Graham / Christian Fauria

TIGHT ENDS

L.J. Smith / Jeff Thomason

Much more than just catching passes, the Patriots’ Tight Ends have been exceptional blockers all season long. Both of them have pretty good hands, as well, and both of them give Tom Brady more options in Goal-Line situations. Jeff Thomason was a construction working ex-NFL’er until last week. Who would you rather have? Big Edge: Patriots

Go ahead; try to name any three guys on either team…

OFFENSIVE LINE

… I dare you. Don’t cheat by looking it up…

I’m picking this on stats alone. The Patriots had a runningback go for 1600-yards in just 15 games, and the line allowed only 26 sacks in the 18 games played so far including the playoffs. The Eagles’ #1 runningback had 812 yards in 16 games, and Donovan McNabb has been sacked 32 times (and he’s got the ability to scramble…). Edge: Patriots (And yes, I can name their starting five without looking it up)

Ty Warren / Keith Traylor / Richard Seymour / (Willie McGinest)

DEFENSIVE LINE

Jevon Kearse / Corey Simon / Darwin Walker / Derrick Burgess

Even. Nothing stands out here for me. Jevon Kearse and Richard Seymour are two of the best defensive ends in the league. Corey Simon really stepped up this year and helped out his line. Both teams can stop the run now, and both teams love to blitz the hell out of the QB from the defensive secondary. This is a push.

Tedy Bruschi / Mike Vrabel / Ted Johnson / Willie McGinest)

LINEBACKERS

Dhani Jones / Jeremiah Trottier / Mark Simoneau

Even though I think the Eagles linebackers have progressively gotten better as the season has gone along, I still think the Patriots have the better setup. The fact that Tedy Bruschi isn’t a Pro Bowler this season tells you two things: 1) This is a team built on team goals, not individual goals, and 2) The voters are idiots who only watch ESPN games in which Ray Lewis is “Miked up”. Edge: Patriots

Randall Gay / Asante Samuel / Eugene Wilson / Rodney Harrison / (Troy Brown)

SECONDARY

Lito Sheppard / Brian Dawkins / Michael Lewis / Sheldon Brown

All right, enough already. Seriously, stop it. I can already hear you reading this, saying, “But D, you’ve been saying for months now that the Patriots still have a good secondary! Why pick against them now?” Here’s why: The Patriots have a good secondary. The Eagles have a great secondary. I love the way New England’s secondary plays – hard, fast, and in-the-other-guy’s-face tight coverage. But Philly has an absolutely spectacular (and somehow underrated) secondary that’s been able to shut down more than a few high-powered offenses in the last 19 weeks. Not Indy-type high powered, but still good teams. Plus, they haven’t been forced to use their slot receiver in 1-on-1 man coverage, which gives them just a little more boost… Edge: Eagles

Adam Vinatieri

KICKERS

David Akers

It comes down to this: If you had to make one kick with the Super Bowl on the line, who would you rather have kicking for you? David Akers – a great kicker, but someone who’s never been in the situation before, or Adam Vinatieri – a kicker who’s not only been in the situation, but who has made that same kick. Twice. Edge: Patriots

Troy Brown / Bethel Johnson

RETURNERS

Brian Westbrook

I’m sorry, but if I have to choose a guy to return a kickoff for me, I’d prefer it be the fastest man in the NFL. And Troy Brown isn’t a bad second option either. Brian Westbrook is good (just ask Giants fans about the return he made to beat them back in ’03), but I think he’ll be worn down by the third quarter, what with the Patriots scoring at will all day and kicking off en masse… Edge: Patriots

Richard Seymour’s knee, Tom Brady’s focus

X-FACTORS

Terrell Owens’ ankle, Team focus

It sounds strange to even think that I would question Tom Brady’s focus in a big game like this, but in case you hadn’t heard, his grandmother passed away earlier today. Not to sound callous, but he knows what he has to do, and he can be with his family by Monday morning. In a press conference, Brady said that he didn’t think it would be a distraction – I hope not.

To me, the bigger “X-Factor” is Richard Seymour and his sprained knee. Again coming from someone who’s been there and knows all about knee pain, it can be hard just to walk, let alone wrestle 300-pound lineman and stop a runningback in his tracks. Terrell Owens’ injury has gotten all the attention, but a Wide Receiver can only be effective if the Quarterback throws him the damned ball. A Defensive Lineman has the ability to change every single play just by getting close to a Quarterback or Runningback.

Finally, the mention of the Eagles’ Team Focus. All of the talk from Philly two weeks ago was “Please just let us get there.” Well, they got there. So are they satisfied? Have they exorcised enough demons to be content with what they have accomplished? I think there’s a little complacency creeping through the Philly locker room, especially with the fact that they are facing the best team in football. If they lose, they can always fall back on “Hey, the Patriots are as good as it gets. We were happy just to have had the opportunity.” That’s never a good thing.

Edge: Patriots

So then, after all of that, what’s the pick? Yeah, like you really needed to ask…

Patriots (-7) over Eagles: I’ve gone 3-7 so far in the playoffs, so who the hell knows if I’ll be right with this one. Rather than rehash everything I just wrote above, I’ll just make some predictions about the game:

Terrell Owens will catch 5-7 passes for between 65-80 yards and a touchdown.

Richard Seymour will have at least one sack and one forced fumble.

The Patriots will either score on defense or return a kick for a touchdown.

Take the over.

The NFL Network’s commercial with stars like Daunte Culpepper and Peyton Manning singing “Tomorrow” from Annie will be the funniest commercial of the day, at least to Patriots and Eagles fans…

At the first opportunity, Rodney Harrison will introduce himself to Freddie Mitchell with one of the hardest hits you’ll ever see, and it will be clean (but still earn him a fine).

Brian Westbrook will have over 140 combined yards from scrimmage, and probably about 60-80 returning.

Donovan McNabb will throw at least 2 picks.

Tom Brady will throw one.

The Larry Brown Memorial “Out-of-Nowhere” award will be given to Kevin Faulk.

Corey Dillon will be the MVP with 110+ yards rushing and 2 TD’s.

Final Score? Pats 34-20 (sticking with my original prediction). I feel a little more confident about this pick then I did when I originally made it two weeks ago.

Corey Dillon as the MVP will cement him as this year’s “feel-good veteran story” for the Patriots – Roman Pfifer and Brian Cox in 2001, Rodney Harrison and Ted Washington in 2003, Corey Dillon in 2004.

Quickly, before I sign off, a message to all of my close friends out there who read this thing, and to those of you who I’ve never met that just stumbled across me in cyberspace and decided to stick around for the ride. Thanks. I enjoy writing this stuff, probably much more than you enjoy reading it. And if no one read what I had to say, I probably would have stopped doing it a long time ago. Last week marked fifteen months of writing, and also marked 1000 unique hits since December 1st. I’m still trying to figure out who some of you are (like who do I know in Mt. Laurel New Jersey that hits my site 3-5 times daily? Or in Bloomfield Michigan? Or Pittsburgh? Or any one of the seventeen foreign countries that I can now claim readership in – added India and Switzerland this week…). Anyway, thanks.

And to all of my Giants-fan friends that I reached out to last week looking for an answer to the question “Who the hell do you cheer for in this game?” – well none of you responded, so I’ll assume that you either won’t be watching or you’ll be secretly rooting for the Pats, for the sole purpose of inflicting more pain on Eagles’ fans nationwide.

Just 76 hours to go. I can’t wait…

Lata.

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