2005 MLB Preview - NL West

National League West

San Francisco Giants (92-70)

San Diego Padres (88-74)

Los Angeles Dodgers (82-80)

Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88)

Colorado Rockies (66-96)

Last season, I predicted that this would be the best division in baseball, with all five teams finishing over .500 and only 7 games separating first and last place. Of course, this turned out to be one of the worst divisions in baseball, with only three teams over .500 and 42 games separating first and last place. Yes, you read that correctly – 42 games. I cut that numbering half for ’05, and 21 still seems like a stretch…

San Francisco Giants (92-70):

Naturally, the first season that the Giants and GM Brian Sabean decided to give Barry Bonds some protection in the lineup will also be the season that he faces the toughest scrutiny from the media regarding the big “S” word.

If Bonds hits 50 homers, people will say he’s still using. If he doesn’t hit 50, people will say that he came off the juice and now he’s useless, since he should theoretically hit more with Moises Alou protecting him. Just imagine – in 2001, Bonds hit 73 home runs while sandwiched between Rich Aurilia and Jeff Kent. Of course, in 2001 his head also expanded about seventeen hat sizes, but that’s another story.

As for 2005, the most important acquisition of the off-season is going to be Armando Benitez. Last season, he was absolutely dominant for the Marlins, but he was never tested in his most difficult situation - the playoffs. If San Francisco wants to contend, he’s going to have to solidify a closer’s spot that tried out three different options last year, none of them really ideal.

The team could still use more starters. There’s a hell of a drop-off from Jason Schmidt to Kirk Rueter at #2. Look for the Giants to acquire another top level starter by the trading deadline.

San Diego Padres (88-74):

I picked them to win the division last season at 90-72. They finished 87-75, six games behind the Dodgers. This season, I think they’re about as good as they were last year, so why not give them just about the same record? Not quite enough to take the division, but certainly not a backslide into the mediocrity that plagued them for half a decade after reaching the World Series in 1998.

Just like last season, they’ve got a solid, if not spectacular team from top to bottom. They could still use some more power in their lineup, but in PetCo Park, it would be wiser to swing for the gaps rather than the fences. Three or four consecutive doubles will help an offense out a lot more than three consecutive long fly ball outs.

The rotation is looking pretty good. Headed by Jake Peavy, they have two different guys with the stuff to win 20 games (Peavy & Brian Lawrence), and two more with the ability to rack up 15+ (Woody Williams / Adam Eaton). Not to mention a healthy Trevor Hoffman, and a solid backup if Hoffman gets hurt in Akinori Otsuka.

They’re good – they’ve got a chance to be great. And if San Francisco’s age catches up to them, the upstart Padres will be right there to take the division reins.

Los Angeles Dodgers (82-80):

What could the Dodgers possibly have done so wrong in the off-season that I would drop them from their actual 2004 record of 93-69 to this 82-80 mark? Well, let’s see…

They have had an anemic offense for three years running now. So after they lost their best hitter from 2004 in Adrian Beltre, they decided to ship out their best remaining hitter (to a division rival, no less) in Shawn Green, and then sign J.D. Drew to a long-term, big money contract. Not horrible, except that Drew has never played a full season, and his numbers will probably never be as good as they were last year, when they were spectacular (.305/31/93/.436/1.005) in a – SHOCK! – contract year.

Sure Jeff Kent could regain his MVP form, and if Milton Bradley (I love typing that name) can keep his head on straight, they might have a legit offense. Cesar Izturis certainly showed promise last season, and he might breakout this year. Then again, he might regress to the Cesar Izturis we’ve all come to not know or care about.

On the pitching front, Their rotation is a little thin. Odalis Perez is a decent pitcher, but he’s not a #1. I was secretly hoping the Red Sox would get him to replace Derek Lowe – as a #4. Speaking of Lowe, he’s the Dodgers new #2 starter, just ahead of Jeff Weaver (yikes!) at #3, and then Brad Penny and Kaz Ishii, both of whom are coming off serious and mysterious injuries. Their only saving grace is the man at the end, Eric Gagne. Of course, you can only save a game when you team gets the ball to you while winning…

Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88):

In an off-season full of ridiculous contracts, the D-Backs made two of the worst signings, second only to Detroit with Troy Percival and Magglio Ordonez.

Troy Glaus for 4 years and $45M. Russ Ortiz for 4 years, $33M. Whaaa?

Who knew that Arizona had this kind of money? You think that if Randy Johnson had gotten an extension from them (say, maybe for 2 years and the $33M they threw at Ortiz) that I’d still have them this low on the NL West totem pole?

I’ll admit, the outfield looks OK. Steve Finley would have looked better in centerfield than Jose Cruz Jr., but Cruz, Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez could give Arizona a solid starting three, provided each stays healthy.

The rotation isn’t awful, even though it is quite overpaid. Javier Vasquez should return to form playing back in the NL, under relatively little pressure. Russ Ortiz isn’t bad, he’s just not worth $33M guaranteed. He’ll be a good #2. Brandon Webb will be a good fit in the #3 slot – he was often overmatched against other teams’ #2 starters last season. Shawn Estes just won’t retire, and personally, I’ve never heard of Mike Gosling. So the back of the rotation could probably use some help.

But the infield? Talk about needing some pop. Chad Tracy, Craig Counsell, Royce Clayton and Troy Glaus. IF Glaus stays healthy for 162 games, which he probably won’t, I don’t think the starting infield could hit 80 home runs combined. And while the three outfielders probably could do that, I don’t think “balanced” is a word we’ll hear thrown around about the D-Backs lineup this year.

I suppose that jumping 23 games in the standings in one year should be considered a success for any team. But they’ve still got a long way to go to reach the postseason again.

Colorado Rockies (66-96):

Quick, name two starting position players on the Rockies NOT named Todd Helton or Preston Wilson…I can wait.

Still thinking? Don’t go look it up, you cheat. I’ll give you a hint – you’re not going to get it.

Maybe I shouldn’t jump to conclusions. Maybe I have readers in Colorado who are huge Rockies fans and could give me the lifetime batting averages of any of the other six position players on this team. Problem is, no one else in the world could. That’s probably not a good sign.

Here, stop hurting your brain. I’ll just tell you the rest of the position players:

Catcher: J. D. Closser (highly touted prospect last year – hit .319 in 36 games)

Second Base: Aaron Miles (could have been NL ROY last year if not for injury)

Third Base: Garrett Atkins (I got nothing here)

Shortstop: Clint Barnes (ditto)

Left Field: Matt Holliday (I think I’ve heard his name before)

Right Field: Dustan Mohr (I know him - he’s not very good)

Does that look like a team that has any chance of contending this season? Not to mention that the rotation is full of has-beens and never-will-be’s. Their #3 starter, Shawn Chacon, was the closer last year, and was probably the worst one in baseball. He could make Byung Hyun Kim look like a stable coming in to a close game in the ninth inning. In fact, the Rockies are hurting so much at pitcher that they’re still considering a trade to acquire Kim from the Red Sox (PLEASE make this happen).

I still say that Colorado would be the best place to run an OPS dominated team. Get a bunch of guys who draw walks and slap singles and doubles all around the park, then let Helton and Wilson drive them in. Since pitching is impossible in Coors, just try to run up 10-15 runs a game, and worry about pitching when you’re on the road.

But what do I know, right?

posted by Big D @ 5:44 PM