2005 MLB Preview - AL West

American League West

Anaheim Angels (94-68)

Oakland Athletics (91-71)

Seattle Mariners (82-80)

Texas Rangers (74-88)

The best division in baseball will regain some of its respectability with the mild resurgence of the Seattle Mariners. And for the first time in many a year, discussions about Oakland will not begin with the words “The Big Three”. But Anaheim will put all of the talk about the Mariners and A’s to rest, and probably do so before the August waiver deadline…

Anaheim Angels (94-68):

Anaheim took a team that won their division last year and improved upon it by filling in holes and getting younger where they could afford to. The only reason the ALCS wasn’t Angels/Yankees in ’04 was because Anaheim ran up against the offensive juggernaut known as the 2004 Boston Red Sox, and because their best offensive weapons (Vlad, Troy Glaus and Garret Anderson) were all battling injuries at the worst possible times. I can remember watching Game 2 of the ALDS, in Anderson’s first at-bat against Pedro Martinez, and thinking to myself “That’s just not fair”. Anderson was so hobbled that Pedro made him look like a little leaguer at the plate.

So this off-season, rather than get back into the Randy Johnson sweepstakes and mortgage their future, they let Glaus walk in favor of the younger (and by all accounts better) Dallas MacPherson at third. They made a HUGE upgrade from David Eckstein to Orlando Cabrera at shortstop, and then they signed Steve Finley to patrol center. Granted, Finley is older than most teams would prefer for a starting center fielder. But his signing allows them the flexibility to move Darrin Erstad to left field and put Garret Anderson at first, where he would provide a huge target and would be able to rest his degenerative knees and back.

Of course, this is all made possible by the arrival of 21-year old Cuban import first-baseman Kendry Morales, who will likely start the year as the DH over Tim Salmon. The kid is the real deal, and will give even more thump to a loaded lineup.

On the mound, the Angels bring back almost the same rotation as last year, which may not be the best thing in the world. They had one of the best bullpens in all of baseball in ’04 because they needed to have one of the best bullpens around. Those starters weren’t exactly stellar, and the closing duties are now going to be forced upon Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez. How he handles the situation could well determine if the Angels cruise to another postseason berth, or are left looking up at…

Oakland Athletics (91-71):

The end of an era usually doesn’t hit you until long after the time has passed. Sometime a few years or a few decades down the road, you’ll look back and realize “Wow, that really was something special.”

In the A’s case, they’ve made provisions to ensure that while the era of The Big Three is indeed over, they aren’t just going to wait for the next power trio to step up and take their place.

Exit Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder; enter Danny Haren, Dan Meyer, Joe Blanton, and 2004 rotation holdover Rich Harden. Barry Zito suddenly steps up from the shadows of Mulder and Hudson to captain what is, by far, the best young rotation in the game. Sure, the Yankees have more talent right now, and the Red Sox are a close second. And the Cubs can never be counted out with their own “Big Three”. But the five men in line to toe the rubber for the A’s will make their names known before all is said and done.

Factor in a solid “Moneyball”-styled offense with the addition of Billy Beane’s dream catcher (no pun intended) in Jason Kendall and a revamped outfield, and this team is dangerous. If the Angels falter, even a little, look for the A’s to grab the opportunity – probably with one of their patented August winning streaks.

Seattle Mariners (82-80):

Here’s the thing about the Mariners: they didn’t get better where it mattered. Oh sure, they’ll hit about 40 more team home runs this season, and probably score 100 more runs. But they didn’t help their pitching one iota, electing instead to sign a first baseman that separated his shoulder on a check-swing and a third baseman that had never even reached half his potential until his first shot at free agency.

Now, I’m not saying that Richie Sexson won’t bounce back from all the nagging injuries, or that Adrian Beltre didn’t really reinvent his game and will see a substantial drop from last year’s monster numbers. What I am saying is that the offense, though a problem, wasn’t the problem. The rotation is relying on three guys with 104 career wins in 14 years of combined service, along with a 42-year old guy whose fastball is slower than most pitchers’ changeups and a #5 starter with 11 career starts… at age 29. The bullpen isn’t terrible, but if they are forced to consistently enter games in the 5^th or 6^th innings, it could get ugly fast.

I still think last year’s debacle was a fluke. I just don’t think they’re much better than a .500 team… yet.

Texas Rangers (74-88):

I don’t feel too good about this pick, if only because there’s no way to gauge what we’ll see out of the Rangers’ pitching this year. Seriously.

The offense is pretty cut and dried – lots and lots of young hitters with power to all fields and speed to spare, playing 81 games a year in a hitters’ ballpark. But the pitching? Well…

Their #1 starter threatened to retire before spring training if he didn’t get a multi-year contract extension. He’s 40. He’s won more than 13 games four times in a 16-year career (granted, four of those years were spent as a closer or spot starter). He has a career ERA of over 4.25. And he’s struck out more than 130 batters twice – 1993 and 1995. Did I mention he’s the #1 starter for this rotation?

Should I even go into the Chan Ho Park nonsense? How much time do you have?

The point is this – Ryan Drese, Chris Young and Juan Dominguez are all relatively decent young pitchers, with Drese bordering on good. But in a division that includes Anaheim and Oakland, “decent - bordering on good” ain’t gonna cut it. If the Rangers were in the AL Central, they’d be a division contender. In the West, they’ll be an also ran.

posted by Big D @ 5:47 PM