2005 MLB Preview - NL Central
National League Central
I don’t have a personal vendetta against the Astros, although you’d think so looking at those predicted standings, no?
The only things of value that were lost in the off-season were Edgar Renteria to the Red Sox and Woody Williams to the Padres. Granted, David Eckstein is a downgrade from Renteria. But Mark Mulder is a HUGE upgrade over Williams. This team is stacked, almost to the point of being unfair.
Mulder, Matt Morris (when he’s recovered from surgery), Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan will comprise one of the top two rotations in the National League, right behind the Cubs. As long as they don’t have to face the Red Sox.
As for the offense, well, I don’t think offense really held the Cardinals back last season. They’ve got five different legitimate 30-home run threats, and although losing Renteria will hurt the top of their order, Eckstein provides them with a singles hitter who has a lot of speed on the bases. They’ll probably drop-off by 50 runs scored, at most. And they might even get better. Scary thought, eh?
The only reason I’m even considering
I thin Nomar returns in a big way this year, maybe even playing 150+ games. He smartly took a pay-cut to stay in
Jeremy Burnitz will offer something in the way of outfield power, and if Aramis Ramirez keep progressing the way he has in the past few years, the offense could help keep the Cubs in a few games.
But this season is going to fall squarely on Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux, as well as whoever steps up to claim the closer’s role.
Without pitching, this team is in the basement. With pitching, they’ll make another wild-card run.
Milwaukee
No, I’m not drunk again. Yes, that 84-win total is achievable. No, seriously, I’m not drunk.
Ben Sheets, and Ben Sheets alone will determine this season for the Brewers. And I think he can be a 22-25 game winner if he gets even a little run support. 22 wins would also be just under one-third of the team’s total wins in ’04 (67-94).
This team has some decent pitching behind Sheets, and if they smarten up and let Jose Capellan take over the closer’s role instead of Mike Adams, they could go far. Like, maybe overtaking the Cubs kind of far.
Last season, offense kept them out of games more than it kept them in. This year, the got Carlos Lee from the White Sox, and they added Junior Spivey and Damian Miller through free agency. I know, not exactly marquis names. But when you play baseball in
But it all comes down to Sheets. If the Brewers aren’t at least contending by July, he’ll be a rented arm for the Angels, A’s, Braves, Yankees or Red Sox by August.
Another NL Central team making small moves to quietly get much, much better. You didn’t see them courting the Beltran’s or
Joe Randa takes over at third base, adding a little pop from a guy that no one ever hears about until the trading deadline. He’s been trade bait for almost four years now, but the Royals never shipped him out. He’s no A-Rod or Rolen, but he’s a pretty damned good third baseman.
Their official depth chart lists Felipe Lopez as the starting shortstop, but I have a feeling that Rich Aurilia could step into the role pretty early on in the season. And adding Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz to their rotation gives them two more solid arms that can each throw about 200+ innings and rack up 12-15 wins.
Obviously, the health of any of these players is a key issue. But none moreso than Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns. Last year, they Reds were forced to plug Wily Mo Pena and Ryan Freel into the lineup after Griffey and
Health is not just an issue, it’s the issue. But then again, it’s an issue for every team, right?
Let’s be honest – they had a lot of things go right for them last season to achieve what they did. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio both had relatively injury-free seasons. Roger Clemens jumped in the way-back machine and set it for about 1986. Jimy Williams was so horrific as manager that he was canned in favor of Phil Garner, who is by all accounts the most player friendly manager this side of Tito Francona. They won the Carlos Beltran Sweepstakes. How many of those things do you think could repeat themselves or carry over to this season?
Bagwell’s shoulder can’t hold on much longer. He’s put off surgery so many times that it may not even be an option by the time he’s through. Ditto for Biggio’s knees. And for as good as their rotation looks with Clemens, Oswalt, a healthy Andy Pettite and a good young starter in Brandon Backe, pitching will only carry a team so far. They lost Jeff Kent, they didn’t keep Beltran, and Lance Berkman is going to be recovering for the first couple months of the season after tearing up his knee.
For all the good luck they experienced in ‘04, 2005 is starting out with a pretty big black cloud hovering overhead. Good thing
The Pirates return most of a team that overachieved for much of last year, if a 72-89 record can be called overachieving. They have one of the best young arms in the National League in Oliver Perez. They sport a few good young players dotted all around the diamond, from
I mentioned this in the Tampa Bay Devil Rays’ preview, how the Pirates conduct business. They keep their home-grown (and cheap) talent for as long as possible before dealing it away or re-signing it at a moderate hometown discount. But each off-season they hit the bargain basement of the free agent crop to find a gem that can be dealt away for a bunch of top prospects. Reggie Sanders. Raul Mondesi. Randall Simon. Jose Mesa (who’s still a Pirate, for now). Brian Giles, Aramis Ramirez and Kris Benson were Pirates for a long time before getting shipped out for a load of fresh young talent. This year, it’s Matt Lawton. You don’t think a contender would be willing to dump a couple of Double-A prospects that may or may never pan out to acquire a guy like
The Pirates have one of the best scouting departments in the business, finding gems in the minor leagues. All they have to do is hope it all comes together before the next wave of talent has to be dealt.
Either that, or they could pray for a salary cap…
posted by Big D @ 5:45 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home