2005 MLB Preview - NL East
National League East
I have to predict a tie somewhere – I believe I’m contractually obligated to make this preview interesting at least once. So why not do it here, assuring tons and tons of hate mail from Mets’ fans, as well as the high probability of a new post over at the Anti Big-D site…
Ho hum, another NL East division crown for the Atlanta Braves. It’s almost time to add a second tier for all of the banners they have to hang over at Turner Field. Let’s just make one level for the division titles and another one for everything else. That second tier would be pretty small, no…?
Ouch. And I’m a Braves fan. But that tells you how I feel about the team right now. All for show, no glory – they have no problem winning 90+ games every year to take the NL East. But put them in a 5- or 7-game series and they’re screwed.
This year will be different. Tim Hudson and John Smoltz instantly make them the best rotation in the NL East, along with Danny Kolb as the best closer in the division. And while the offense will be lacking something with the departure of J.D. Drew, Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi should be able to combine and more than pick up the slack. They still have the Jones’ and Johnny Estrada, and a healthy Adam LaRoche at first could provide a big, big bat in the middle of the order. They’ll be fine…
They’ve got, by far, the most balanced lineup in the division. Delgado adds the left-handed power that they’ve been lacking for years, and the rotation was never a big issue. So why don’t I think they’ll make the playoffs?
Two reasons – first, the closer. Guillermo Mota has proven to be one of the best setup men in the business, but that doesn’t always translate to success as a closer. Their second option is the six-finger man, Antonio Alfonseca, who hasn’t closer regularly in a couple of years. This isn’t a big issue, but it is still a concern.
Second - the rotation. Yes, it’s not a big issue, but it still needs to be addressed. They have four guys who are all very serviceable pitchers, but they don’t have a true #1 – a guy that they can run out to the mound every fifth day who basically guarantees his team a win. Josh Beckett has been injured and erratic, ditto for A.J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis was figured out by just about every opposing batter last season, and Ismael Valdez, well, he’s Ismael Valdez.
Al Leiter would be the best bet to assume the role of the #1, but I don’t see Jack McKeon giving him the opportunity unless Beckett and Burnett both screw it up first. That could cost them a lot of games early.
New York
Even though I said that the Mets were the most improved team in the National League (and all of baseball, for that matter), they’re just still not good enough to take this division from
Their rotation looks good, if overpaid. Pedro will probably contend for the Cy Young in his return to the NL, much like Clemens last year. Kris Benson was not worth the money they threw at him, and nothing will ever convince me otherwise. Well, maybe three-straight Cy Young awards.
But for as great as the Beltran and Pedro signings were, they didn’t address all of the teams’ needs. And although Doug Mientkiewicz (I don’t know how I spell that correctly every time. I’m always afraid to look up after I finish typing it) will prevent the multitude of errors that would otherwise be expected from the Kaz Matsui/Jose Reyes positional swap, he’s not going to give them the offense that Carlos Delgado or even Kevin Millar would have.
The lone bright spot is David Wright. A home grown prospect who should have a huge season now that he gets a full-time shot. The Mets had to give up on Scott Kazmir, leaving Wright as the best prospect in the organization. It’s time to prove why.
Cliff Floyd is done, period. He’s taking up a valuable roster spot that could be used on any number of better players. Even a minor league left fielder would have a better shot at a more productive season. Mike Piazza really needs to just finish out this contract and move to the
Thing is, if the Mets are even close to contending at the trading deadline, they’ll hold onto these guys to try to make a run that will never happen. The best thing for them would be to have a mediocre season and ship out Piazza, Floyd and maybe even Cameron for whatever they can get in the way of prospects.
I don’t think it’ll happen, but it probably should.
And here’s the winner of this division’s 82-80 or 80-82 record! (If you don’t get that joke, read the Chicago White Sox’ preview on the AL Central page.)
Somehow, although I’m not really sure how they accomplished it,
They did rid themselves of Larry Bowa and his caustic managerial style, which can’t do anything but help the clubhouse atmosphere. But the biggest need for this team was starting pitching, and it actually managed to get worse.
They lost Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton, their top two starters, to free agency last year. They replaced them by signing Jon Lieber and promoting a minor league pitcher to the #5 slot. Lieber is a very effective National League pitcher, and all reports on Gavin Floyd (the prospect) have him as a future staff ace. But Randy Wolf in the 2-hole? Vicente Padilla and Cory Lidle as 3 and 4? Look at the rest of your division and tell me that rotation compares favorably to any other team except for…
Ah, the Nats. It’s a good thing they didn’t get contracted, or else there would never be a legit possibility of baseball in Vegas. They don’t really serve much other purpose, except to act as a couple of days off for whoever their opponent is.
They actually made some nice acquisitions, considering the situation and their budget. The offense looks like it might be able to put up some runs, with Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro, Christian Guzman, Jose Guillen and Vinny Castilla. And a team sporting Livan Hernandez is almost guaranteed a fresh bullpen one day a week. Unfortunately, these are the most positive things I can think of for the Nationals.
I know it’s an overused fallback position, but let’s just look back one more time at some of the talent that has graced the field for the Expos/Nationals in the past 15 years:
Pedro.
Randy.
Vlad.
Dennis Martinez.
Carl Pavano.
Javier Vasquez.
Moises Alou.
Larry Walker.
Jose Vidro (hey – he’s still there! Hooray!)
Cliff Floyd.
Ugueth Urbina
And who can forget the immortal Hideki Irabu? I thought not.
Sorry, I really just have nothing to add to the discussion of the Washington Nationals. I don’t think they’ll be very good. That about covers it.
posted by Big D @ 5:46 PM
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