'06 MLB Preview - National League Central

National League Central

The ultimate division for parity in baseball. It’s like the teams just played to fit onto a bell curve. One great team, one good team, two mediocre teams, one bad team, one awful team.

Admittedly, injuries made a huge difference in this division last year, as did the resurgence of the Astros after the disastrous beginning to the 2005 season. But Pittsburgh is not exactly a powerhouse anymore, much like Cincinnati. Chicago is just too injury prone and has too much pressure on them, Houston is going to miss Clemens in their rotation (assuming he doesn’t re-sign), and Milwaukee is extremely talented, but extremely young.

Essentially, the Cardinals already have this division won, as long as they don’t choke it away…

St. Louis (96-66) – They lost Matt Morris & Reggie Sanders to free agency, and Larry Walker retired. That’s not a whole lot of subtractions from the best team in the National League in 2005.

Unfortunately, the replacements that were brought in are not exactly top-level talent type of guys. Juan Encarnacion to replace Sanders – not a huge downgrade; might even be an upgrade with Encarnacion’s ability on the base paths if he can stay healthy. Larry Bigbie to replace Larry Walker as the #4 outfielder is probably a wash. Walker was a part-time player at best by the time last season ended, with age catching up to him. Bigbie will be an effective fourth outfielder coming off the bench to spell Jim Edmonds, who is getting up there in years as well. But Sidney Ponson to replace Morris… yikes.

As long as Albert Pujols can stay healthy, and Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter can give them 28-30 starts, they Cards should be able to crack the 90-win plateau. In this division, that should be more than enough.

Biggest Question(s): Age and health. Every team faces these questions every year, but with the Cardinals continued run of success, you’ve got to wonder how long that window will stay open.

Best possible scenario: The rest of the NL East remains stuck in relative mediocrity or just plain lousy, and the Cards take advantage of all the intra-division games to coast to another N.L. Central title.

Worst possible scenario: Edmonds hits the wall and starts wearing down, Pujols can’t duplicate his stupid numbers from the past five seasons, Jason Isringhausen wears down early leaving Braden Looper as the closer. I’m not too worried about any of those, although I’d never discount the negative effect of saying “Braden Looper” and “closer” in the same sentence.

Milwaukee (85-77) - This is going to be a fun team to watch. I actually kind of wish Milwaukee was still in the American League, if only so I could have the chance to see these guys develop and shock the hell out of the rest of baseball.

Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and of course Ben Sheets form a solid core of young talent around which the Brewers can build a team that should be able to compete for years to come. Losing Lyle Overbay was, unfortunately, necessary not only from a payroll perspective, but also because he was blocking Fielder’s path to the majors. And getting 32-year old Corey Koskie back from the Blue Jays provides the Brewers with a “young veteran”, if that makes any sense. He never really fit in with Toronto, and although he might not be a star at third, he’s a steady presence that will play about 100-120 games a year and produce decent, if unspectacular numbers.

Re-acquiring Dan Kolb – a star in Milwaukee but a bust in Atlanta – could provide them with a top of the line closer, or at the very least, another solid bullpen arm and insurance for current closer Derrick Turnbow.

The only real issue to worry about is the rotation behind Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano. Doug Davis, Tomo Ohka and Rick Helling are not exactly a murderer’s row of power pitchers. They will need to rely on Sheets to return to form and Capuano to remain the 18-game winner he was last season, when he really had a breakout year at 18-12 with 176 Ks to only 91 walks and a 3.99 ERA in about 220 innings.

Biggest Question(s): Pitching rotation, just how good are those kids in the field?

Best possible scenario: St. Louis falls back to Earth and the Brewers take advantage of the rest of the division, setting up a serious race for first in the Central down the stretch in September.

Worst possible scenario: The kids just can’t cut it, Capuano’s numbers last year were a fluke, and Sheets doesn’t recover from the muscle strain and inner-ear problem that have cost him so much of the last two years, dropping the Brewers down the line and back into the “relative mediocrity” portion of the N.L. Central.

Houston (77-85) – (Before I even start this breakdown… I take no responsibility for this prediction if Roger Clemens re-signs. If he comes back, I give them anything from 14-20 more wins, which obviously alters the standings of the entire division, if not the National League as a whole. I’ve written this breakdown as though Roger is done with Houston, as I believe he is…)

Obviously, Roger Clemens is a huge loss for this team, whether it’s only for the first month or forever. He not only provided them with as good of a #1 starter as there is in the Major Leagues today, but he gave the younger guys like Roy Oswalt a mentor, he gave Andy Pettite a best friend to talk to, and he gave the fans a reason to fill that ballpark every fifth day. Losing him hurts this franchise in more than just the wins and losses that show up in the standings.

For a team that had a serious aversion to scoring runs last season, they did little to bolster the offense. Hell, they did little in general, adding only 2 players through free agency or trades, and only losing five including Clemens. One of those additions, Preston Wilson, should be able to help the offense put a few more numbers on the board.

Obviously, Lance Berkman’s knee injury inhibited him for much of last season, and his numbers reflected that. He should be back at 100% this season, and with Willie Tavaras, Morgan Ensberg, and Wilson all playing in that band-box Deepinaheartuh, I would guess that the Astros’ offense should be able to generate maybe 100 more runs over the course of the year.

Biggest Question(s): Can Brad Lidge recover after his disastrous 2005 postseason? Can Pettite stay healthy, and can he & Oswalt carry this team?

Best possible scenario: Roger returns on May 1^st, wins 14-17 games, and behind a reloaded offense leads the Astros back to the World Series and a win to close out his career.

Worst possible scenario: Roger ends up somewhere else (either another city or retirement) Pettite breaks down, Oswalt can’t carry the team, Berman’s knee gives out, Bagwell demands to play (this is a whole different story), Ensberg can’t duplicate his 2005 numbers, and the Astros struggle to win 70.

Chicago (77-85) – Just like I said at the top of this page, the Cubs are too injury prone and have far too much pressure on them to really compete. They had their window of opportunity in 2003, with a healthy Prior, a healthy Wood, a happy (and still “corked” – however you want to interpret that) Sammy Sosa, and a city backing them the whole way. Then Dusty Baker overused Wood & Prior, Sosa’s mood swings and sudden lack of production drove him out of town (and currently out of a job), and the Cubs returned to “loveable loser” status.

Already this year, Chicago has said that Mark Prior will start the year on the DL. Kerry Wood is about 50/50 to be active by Opening Day. The team has relatively little offense outside of Derrick Lee and Aramis Ramirez, and for as good as Carlos Zambrano is, he just seems too volatile to carry that entire pitching staff.

They addressed their centerfield/leadoff hitter holes by dealing for Juan Pierre (a guy that I would have loved to see Boston), and Matt Murton – a key piece of the Nomar deal two years ago – seems to be rounding into shape as a solid everyday left fielder.

They’ll stick around for awhile, maybe even be fairly competitive up to the All-Star Break. But make no mistake – without a full season of healthy Kerry Wood and healthy Mark Prior, this team is middle-of-the-road, at best.

Biggest Question(s): When does the GM realize that Dusty Baker is killing the teams’ best chance at a title run by misusing his pitchers? Who steps up and fills in the holes in the rotation? How much does Greg Maddux have left?

Best possible scenario: Prior & Wood are both 100% and ready to pitch well ahead of schedule, and the Cubs are close enough to a struggling Cardinals team at the deadline that they can deal for one more arm and/or one more bat to give them enough for the stretch run.

Worst possible scenario: Prior & Wood combine for 12-15 starts, Cubs lose 110.

Cincinnati Reds (72-90) – They added a lot of players this off-season, but that’s not saying much when the best of the bunch are Scott Hatteberg and Tony Womack.

For the past few seasons, the Reds have been forced to rely on Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., and a “pu-pu platter” of sorts between Austin Kearns, Jose Guillen and Wily Mo Pena to get their offense. Guillen’s been gone for awhile, Kearns looks less and less likely to ever put it all together, Pena just got traded to the Red Sox, and Junior is continuing to age like someone pressed the fast-forward button on his life. That leaves Adam Dunn, his mammoth home runs, and his even more staggering strikeout numbers.

The two kids in the infield, Ryan Freel and Felipe Lopez, both look like they’ve got some promise. Unfortunately, unless the Reds open the checkbooks and sign some quality pitchers and a little more pop to fill in the gaps in the lineup, Freel & Lopez will walk in free agency long before Cincinnati is competitive again.

Biggest Question(s): Take your pick. Can Jr. stay healthy for a full season again? Will anyone in the rotation step up and give them 15 wins without serving up 50 gopher balls?

Best possible scenario: There is no best possible scenario. The Reds are bad. Best case, maybe Jr. approaches 600 career homers this year and gets a few more people in the seats.

Worst possible scenario: Jr. blows out a hamstring / knee / shoulder / calf / ankle / pinky / etc. and calls it a career. Adam Dunn strikes out 250 times, but hits 55 homeruns, some of which land in other states.

Pittsburgh Pirates (66-96) – Honestly, what can you say about the Pirates? They built a ridiculously nice new ballpark with the understanding that increased revenues would lead to increased payroll, which would in turn lead to a return to at least competitiveness. Unfortunately, they aren’t able to attract any high level free agents to play for them because, well, you know, Pittsburgh is a pretty boring place. It’s about three or four hours from everywhere (unless you consider Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia “exciting”), so players eschew the mid-level offers from the Pirates that usually carry guaranteed playing time to instead go play for a team like the Dodgers or Yankees and have a chance to compete for a backup job.

So the Pirates are stuck waiting for their prospects to develop, then sign them to moderate contracts before they hit free agency or else trade them away for more prospects and start the cycle all over again.

This season, they picked up Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa and Damaso Marte, all for relatively short-money contracts, as stopgaps until the younger talent can mature and reach the majors. More than likely, Burnitz, Randa and maybe Marte will all be moved at the deadline for prospects to a team that needs an extra bat or relief arm for their playoff run.

They have a pretty good nucleus right now in Jason Bay, Jack Wilson, Zach Duke and Oliver Perez. Kip Wells will never develop into anything more than a mediocre #3, and Pittsburgh appears to be OK with that.

So, until next year, when I can basically copy this entire synopsis and just change the names…

Biggest Question(s): How good can Zach Duke get? Can Oliver Perez rebound from last season’s disaster?

Best possible scenario: They move Burnitz, Marte & Randa at the deadline and get some serious top-shelf talent in exchange to build for ’07.

posted by Big D @ 3:00 PM