'06 MLB Preview - Red Sox Preview
Boston (94-68) – There are two possible scenarios for the 2006 edition of the Boston Red Sox. Either they’re a powerhouse team and roll to the top of the A.L. East, or they’re a lot worse than people imagine, and fall to third in the division.
Right now, my vote is for the former. They have the best rotation in the division, barely ahead of Toronto. Both teams have a proven ace and a shaky, injury-prone #2. The difference is, Boston has three guys rounding out the rotation that have all proven that they can pitch in the big leagues. I’m still not sold on Gustavo Chacin or Josh Towers in Toronto.
There have never been many questions about the offense. The Manny/Ortiz 3-4 combo was kept intact, despite all the off-season posturing about trading Ramirez to the Mets, the Angels, the Dodgers, the Braves, the Yankees, the Phillies, the Cubs, the Diamondbacks, the Orioles, and just about every other team in the Major Leagues. Papi & Manny still make up the best 3-4 starting lineup in the majors, hands down. No other team can send out two guys that can both put up a .285/40/125 line every single season.
The rest of the lineup has its holes, but they just aren’t as big as the rest of the division. I will freely admit that between the Sox & Yankees, I’d expect the Yankees to have the better starting lineup in 2006. Mike Lowell, Trot Nixon, and Jason Varitek’s second half scare the hell out of me.
No team in all of baseball remade their team like the Red Sox did this off-season. They have a completely new infield, a new centerfielder, and a new #2 starter. Of all the position players, only Manny, Trot & Varitek were everyday starters in 2005.
Now, for the flip-side of the coin. Boston could just as easily be giving up on 2006 in advance and planning for 2007. Sure, the team that is on the field on Opening Day will almost certainly be competitive and win 80-85 games, minimum. But just imagine the team in 2007 & beyond…
A starting rotation that includes John Papelbon, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett, all under the age of 27. Coco Crisp patrolling centerfield for a long time. Dustin Pedroia moving into the second base position after Mark Loretta is done, and Kevin Youkilis moving back to third once Mike Lowell hangs ‘em up. And the biggest thing – combined, those six players make less than $15M yearly.
The other aspect of this whole season that disturbs me is that this team might not be as endearing to fans as the previous three years. In 2003 & 2004,we had “The Idiots”. Other teams might have looked at the Red Sox and scoffed at them; said that they weren’t professional, and that they were disgracing the game. Red Sox fans looked at them as “Our Idiots” – just a bunch of blue-collar guys (if that can ever be applied to a professional athlete) going out and having fun playing a game. Nothing fazed them – if they won by 10, they celebrated. If they won on a walk-off, they celebrated. If they lost, well hey – you can’t win ‘em all. It was that type of philosophy that kept Red Sox fans believing in the team in 2004, and it’s that type of philosophy that has kept every seat in Fenway Park sold for nearly four years running.
This season, with so many new faces, most of them belonging to a bunch of workman-like professionals, it’s hard to really get a feel for them. Worse yet, it’s almost hard to get excited over them. Personally, I’m one of the biggest Red Sox fans I’ve ever met, and one of the biggest fans of the game of baseball that I know. And this season has completely snuck up on me. Not because I was distracted by work, family or friends. But because I’m just not as excited about my team as I have been in the past few years.
Perhaps most disturbing, I’m not sure if this group of guys is going to enjoy the games in Boston as much as the last group. Sure, I expect to get more contribution out of Coco Crisp, J.T. Snow, Mark Loretta, Alex Gonzalez & Mike Lowell than we did from Damon, Millar, Mueller, Bellhorn & Renteria. But will these guys make it fun to watch the games? (Edit: On March 26th & 27th, Josh Beckett & Julian Tavarez were involved in one near brawl and one outright fight in Spring Training games. Not sure how much fun those could have been, although I am looking forward to the first Red Sox / D-Rays series even more now…)
In 2006, I honestly have no idea what to expect from the Red Sox. If they win 90 and push for the division or the Wild Card, I’m happy. If they win 83, but the young kids get some action and give me some hope for 2007 and beyond, I’m happy.
If they finish fourth in the division, looking up at everyone but the Orioles, I might not be so happy. But at least I’m preparing myself for any possible situation. I’m climbing into the bunker, stocking up on canned foods and non-perishables, and getting ready for another season of baseball as a card-carrying member of Red Sox Nation.
And I couldn’t be more excited.
Biggest question(s): Will Schilling & Beckett stay healthy long enough to be productive? Will Foulke return to 2004 form or 2005 form? Any chance that David Wells keeps his mouth shut and just makes his 25-30 starts? (No way in hell…) Will Manny ask out again before the trade deadline? Do you all understand now why I said no team in baseball has more questions surrounding them than the Boston Red Sox?
Best possible scenario: They pull out the 93-95 wins it’s going to take to win this division, and have another playoff run like the 2004 edition managed to pull off.
Worst possible scenario: Like I said above – they could easily be a .500 team, or close to it. If they hover around the 80-85 win mark, they’re third in the division (at best). The only way it gets worse is if one of the young guys gets hurt and damages their chances in 2007.
posted by Big D @ 2:00 PM
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