Monday, March 13, 2006

Bracket time, 2006 Edition

Bracket time, 2006 Edition

Alright, I’m taking a break from my never ending work on my upcoming 2006 MLB Preview post to bring you my picks for the 2006 NCAA Tournament. Now, I know what you’re thinking: How could I possibly improve on my stellar picks from last year, when I didn’t miss a game on Day 1 of the tourney and nearly nailed the whole damned bracket if not for Vermont upsetting Syracuse

Also, please feel free to sign up for my group in the ESPN.com Tournament Challenge – just search for the group named “The Big House”. One caveat – don’t copy my picks exactly; that kinda takes the suspense out of competing… Also, it’s free. So I don’t want any excuses…

Onto the picks (Wow – I haven’t gotten to say that since the Super Bowl. Feels good.)

Round one (3/16-17):

Play-In Game: Does it really matter? You’re not picking either team to beat Villanova anyway. Flip a coin. For the record, I’m taking Hampton.

ATLANTA REGION:

Duke over Southern

GW over UNC-Wilmington

Syracuse over Texas A&M

LSU over Iona

S. Illinois over W. Virginia

Iowa over Northwestern

N.C. State over California

Texas over Penn

OK, the Duke & Texas picks are no-brainers. GW might actually have a challenge on their hands with UNC-W, especially if Pops Mensah Bonsu is unable to play. Syracuse is as hot of a team as I’ve ever seen heading into the Big Dance, and that will continue (at least for a little while). Iowa is a solid team, although maybe a little overrated at #3.

The two upsets, S. Illinois & N.C. State are products of the fact that A) West Virginia is a jump shooting team. If they’re even the slightest bit off, they’re toast. And B) Pac-10 basketball is horribly overrated. California, at 20-10 in that conference, should not have been any higher than a 9 or 10 seed. N.C. State should crush them.

OAKLAND REGION:

Memphis over Oral Roberts

Arkansas over Bucknell

Pittsburgh over Kent State

Kansas over Bradley

San Diego State over Indiana

Gonzaga over Xavier

Marquette over Alabama

UCLA over Belmont

Yeah, I know. Only one true upset – SD State over Indiana. But c’mon – Indiana was 18-11 this year, and was only given a #6 seed on the strength of what they did early in the season, before the wheels came flying off.

As for all of the other games, well it’s pretty basic. I’m taking the favorite in every game, except for the #9 Arkansas over #8 Bucknell. I actually had Bucknell advancing to the Sweet 16 for awhile, before coming back to Earth.

The game that could easily bust my bracket is Gonzaga v. Xavier. Xavier is a traditional Atlantic 10 powerhouse (which is like being the smallest kid at fat camp), and as 21-10 this season, they had a very respectable record. They might give the Zags a scare in the first round…

D.C. REGION:

UCONN over Albany

UAB over Kentucky

Utah State over Washington

Illinois over Air Force

Michigan State over George Mason

UNC over Murray State

Wichita State over Seton Hall

Tennessee over Winthrop

I don’t know… Great Danes vs. Huskies… The ol’ mascot litmus test doesn’t really apply here…

Honestly, even though I grew up supporting BC athletics (something I had to disavow the day I decided to attend BU), how in the hell are they a #4 seed and North Carolina, with 4 fewer wins (and a loss in the ACC Tourney to BC) gets a #3. Sure, BC got the easier bracket, but if they finish the season at #7 overall in the polls, how can the seeding committee then say that there are at least 12 teams better than them? Either I’m much worse at math than I’ve always believed, or BC got hosed.

And finally, the 12/5 upset pick – Overrated Pac-10 Basketball (Washington) falls to solid, Middle America Utah State.

MINNEAPOLIS REGION:

Villanova over Play-in winner – let’s just say Hampton

Wisconsin over Arizona

Nevada over Montana

Boston College over Pacific

Oklahoma over UW-Milwaukee

Florida over S. Alabama

G-Town over N. Iowa

Ohio State over Davidson

BC will either lose in the first round or go to the Sweet 16. I really can't figure them out.

This entire bracket hinges on Allen Ray and his ability to play for Villanova. If he’s unable to return by the second weekend, I think BC advances to at least the Elite Eight.

This is by far my most boring bracket of the four, with only one “upset” - #9 Wisconsin over #8 Arizona. All it will take is Allen Ray’s inability to return for this whole house of cards in the Twin Cities to come crashing down…

Round two (3/18-19):

ATLANTA REGION:

Duke over GW

Syracuse over LSU

Iowa over Southern Illinois

Texas over N.C. State

After three years, I’m finally off the Southern Illinois bandwagon. Honestly, I just liked having a reason to type “Salukis” as much as possible.

As for the rest of them, I think Syracuse has just enough magic left in this little run of theirs to advance to the Sweet 16, if no farther.

OAKLAND REGION:

Arkansas over Memphis

Pittsburgh over Kansas

Gonzaga over San Diego State

UCLA over Marquette

The first #1 to fall, Memphis just looks to be the token inflated top-ranked team in 2006. Most years, you can count on at least one #1 to be gone by the Sweet 16. This year, it’s John Calipari’s Memphis Tigers.

As for the rest of the bracket, I like Marquette, but I think UCLA’s defense is just too good. And yes, I realize they’re a Pac-10 team.

D.C. REGION:

UCONN over UAB

Illinois over Utah State

Michigan State over UNC

Tennessee over Wichita State

In the only “upset”, an overrated UNC team falls hard to very, very underrated Michigan State (sleeper alert, sleeper alert!)

The rest of the games should go as planned – c’mon, you didn’t think I’d pick Wichita State, did you?

MINNEAPOLIS REGION:

Villanova over Wisconsin

BC over Nevada

Florida over Oklahoma

Ohio State over Georgetown

Aw, this is no fun. All four top seeds advancing to the Sweet 16 in this region? Hell, this can’t be right. Maybe BC falls to Nevada – stranger things have happened…

Round Three (Sweet 16 – 3/23-24):

ATLANTA REGION:

Duke over Syracuse

Texas over Iowa

Setting up the rematch of the then #1 Duke blow-out win over then #1 Texas from earlier in the season. This Elite 8 game could be the best game of the tournament.

OAKLAND REGION:

Pittsburgh over Arkansas

Gonzaga over UCLA

Listen, as good as UCLA’s defense has been, they just don’t have a scoring threat like Adam Morrison (or a reliable enough way to stop him). As for Pittsburgh, well, with eight Big East teams in the tourney overall, you’ve gotta figure at least three would make the Elite 8…

D.C. REGION:

UCONN over Illinois

Michigan State over Tennessee

Continuing the run, the Spartans will find themselves looking squarely at the best team in the best conference in the country when the Elite 8 rolls around.

MINNEAPOLIS REGION:

Villanova over BC

Florida over Ohio State

Again, this all hinges on Allen Ray’s medical condition. Right now, ESPN’s top two “experts” are picking BC all the way to the Final Four. Honestly, that wouldn’t surprise me. They’ve got the low post presence and the jump-shooting threat. They can play defense and have hung tough with the best teams in the country all year long (when they haven’t been beating them outright). I just think that Villanova is a better team with Ray running the floor.

Ohio State is going to be one hell of a team next year. Like, “preseason #1, odds-on favorite to win the 2007 title” type of good. But not yet.

Round four (Elite 8 – 3/25-26):

Duke over Texas

Gonzaga over Pittsburgh

UCONN over Michigan State

Villanova over Florida

The Duke Texas rematch would be the game of the year, if not for the Final Four match-up of Duke & Gonzaga.

Let me put it bluntly – the NCAA wants this game to happen. They will do everything in their power to get the JJ Redick / Adam Morrison showdown that college basketball fans have been wishing for all year long. Short of bringing in Earl Hebner from the WWE to referee all of the games involving Duke and Gonzaga leading up to the Final Four, the NCAA is going to putt out every stop to send us to this match-up.

And you know what? I’m OK with that. Because I want to see it too.

On the other side, if Villanova falls to BC, expect to see the Eagles take out the Gators in this round. But one of those two teams, BC or ‘Nova, will be representing the Minneapolis bracket in the Final Four.

Round five (Final Four – 4/1):

Duke over Gonzaga

UCONN over Villanova (or BC, and yes, I’m openly covering my ass here)

In the battle for player of the year, Redick drops 50 while Morrison hangs 45, but the rest of the Blue Devils will step up and lead Duke to the victory, and the rematch of the 2004 title game…

2006 NCAA Championship Game (4/3):

Duke (84) over UCONN (79)

Yep. I am a Duke supporter. Always have been. I will now accept hate e-mails.

Just as long as you leave me alone while I get my yearly fix of “One Shining Moment”, this year with the crowning achievement being Coach K & JJ Redick cutting down the nets.

I’ll be back in about 2 weeks, as soon as the WBC is over. Also, in a slight programming note, I’m making a small modification to the format of my MLB Preview – since I obviously know more about the Red Sox than the other 29 teams combined, Boston gets its own page in the preview. Just a warning.

Don’t forget to join the ESPN.com Tourney Challenge group…

Lata.

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