'06 MLB Preview - National League West

National League West

Continuing in the fine tradition they started last season, the N.L. West will probably end up as the worst division in baseball yet again. Yes, worse than the A.L. Central (though barely).

I spent hours pouring over the transactions list in this division, looking at the predicted starting lineups for all five teams, trying to figure out who got better and who got worse. And the conclusion I came to was this:

This division is really in deep trouble...

San Diego (87-75) – Kinda staying in first place by default, if nothing else. They added a great first base prospect in Adrian Gonzalez, but unfortunately Ryan Klesko is blocking his path to the majors. They added two catchers in Mike Piazza & Doug Mirabelli, but lost Mark Loretta (replacing him with – yikes! – Mark Bellhorn). They jettisoned career disappointment Sean Burroughs to Tampa Bay, and added some nice fill-in pieces in the rotation and bullpen (as well as trading away Brian Lawrence about a month before his shoulder exploded).

So why am I still not sold on them? Well, they rely on Jake Peavy & Woody Williams in the rotation, having sent Lawrence to Washington and Adam Eaton to Texas. They have a 38-year old closer with a history of nagging injuries, and they shipped their second best reliever out the door to the Rangers. And the Xavier Nady/Mike Cameron deal is basically a wash talent-wise (they both put up similar lines in injury shortened seasons), but Cameron costs them a lot more money ($7.3M vs. Nady’s $500k in 2005).

Like I said above – I’m basically giving them this division by default. The Padres didn’t improve dramatically, but I think they did just enough to stay ahead of the rest of the dregs in the group.

Biggest Question(s): Who closes when Hoffman inevitable hits the DL? Will the aging Vinny Castilla / Ryan Klesko / Brian Giles / Mike Piazza / Mike Cameron batting order be able to produce enough offense to support the back end of the rotation?

Best possible scenario: Very simple: they stay healthy, they make the playoffs, and get crushed by the Cardinals. Again.

Worst possible scenario: They break down, the new players aren’t able to fill the gaps, and the most mediocre division in baseball produces a below .500 champion.

San Francisco Giants (84-78) – Obviously, the entire season hinges on Barry Bonds. If he plays at all (which is looking like a bigger and bigger question mark), they are a contender. There is no other player in baseball that can impact a game like Bonds, with the possible exception of Albert Pujols. But if Barry isn’t healthy enough to contribute everyday, or if he decides to simply hang-‘em up amid all of the controversy this off-season, then the Giants are toast.

They did almost nothing in the Hot Stove season, adding Steve Finley and Matt Morris, while losing only Edgardo Alfonzo, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brett Tomko from their everyday roster. But Bonds’ ability to play will dictate how this season goes. He only played a handful of games last season, and the win/loss record reflected his absence. With him back in the lineup, it’s as though they’ve acquired the most feared hitter in the game without having to give anything up (except maybe their pride).

My guess is he plays about 120 games, gets booed everywhere he goes (including a lot more at home than he is accustomed to), and laughs all the way to the Hall-of-Fame. In fact, if he’s motivated enough, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a .350/40/125 line this season, which is why I drafted him in 2 fantasy leagues (once in the 4^th round, like an idiot, and once in the 11^th round, when I came to my senses…).

Or, he might walk away from the game with a phantom injury and try to save what little dignity he might still have. But I doubt it.

Biggest Question(s): Bonds. Period.

Best possible scenario: Barry defies everyone once again and pushes himself all season long, puts up another ridiculous stat line for the year with an OPS near 2.000, and the pitching staff holds up long enough to overtake the Padres.

Worst possible scenario: Barry walks away, Jason Schmidt gets hurt early on, and the staff ace becomes Matt Morris. With no offense at all (seriously – have you seen the rest of their lineup?), the Giants fall to the basement of the N.L. West.

Arizona (80-82) – Staying within their apparent business model, the Diamondbacks are continuing to slash payroll while stocking up on some really good, young, low-priced talent. In a couple of years, they will have some money to spend on free agents and will have a great young nucleus to build around. Just not this year.

They won 77 games last season and nearly took the division away from the Padres, only falling 4 games short. This off-season, they addressed some needs while getting younger at almost every position and adding to a pretty decent pitching staff.

Troy Glaus and his monster contract were shipped to Toronto for pitcher Miguel Batista and flashy 2B Orlando Hudson. They picked up former top catching prospect Johnny Estrada from Atlanta, and then traded Javier Vasquez to the White Sox for El Duque, basically sending a overpriced ($11M in ‘05), underachieving (11-15, 4.42 ERA) pitcher out of town and getting a lower priced ($3.5M) but older (36 vs. 29) pitcher back in return to mentor their young staff.

They’re building for the future. If they catch a couple breaks, they might hang with the top teams in the division.

Biggest Question(s): They really don’t have any questions. They have no expectations, so anything they achieve this year is a bonus.

Best possible scenario: The young kids progress a little faster than expected, and they are competitive within the division until maybe August. The rotation is actually pretty solid, so with a little help from the offense, this isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. Especially in this division.

Worst possible scenario: The few remaining veterans suffer injuries that force the team to call up the minor leaguers much sooner than expected, not allowing them to progress effectively and develop into the type of players they could be otherwise.

Los Angeles Dodgers (72-90) – Let me put it to you this way. The Dodgers needed to get younger and more productive this off-season, even if it meant another year or two stuck in neutral. Instead, they traded away two of the top pitching prospects in the organization in Edwin Jackson & Duaner Sanchez, and their biggest additions were two Tampa Bay closer castoffs (Lance Carter & Danys Baez), two aging, injury prone infielders (Bill Mueller & Nomar Garciaparra), an outfielder whose best years were over a decade ago (Kenny Lofton), and the top free-agent shortstop in a weak free agent class (Rafael Furcal).

They got older, didn’t address their biggest issues very effectively (starting rotation and more offense), and added payroll. How does this make them even remotely better?

Right now, the Dodgers’ starting outfield is Jose Cruz Jr., Lofton and J.D. Drew. The infield is Mueller, Furcal, Jeff Kent and Nomar. And when Derek Lowe is the ace of your staff, you’ve got some serious issues.

The one thing I’ll admit – they’re probably going to be a very solid defensive team. Mueller is underrated at third, and Furcal is one of the top defensive shortstops in the game for a reason. Watching Nomar learn to play first is going to take a little getting used to, but I think he can handle it (as long as he doesn’t rip a muscle stretching to dig out a throw).

They’re not going to be better this year. They’ve hurt their future chances with all the long-term contracts on the team. And the farm system doesn’t look like one of the best in the game, as it was considered just two or three years ago.

Biggest question(s): Who’s going to get the big hits? Can they break the record for most team days lost to the DL?

Best possible scenario: The players on short money contracts get motivated to produce, the rotation stays healthy, and the team makes a push at a .500 season (which, sadly, might be enough to threaten for a division title).

Worst possible scenario: Nomar’s groin, Mueller & Kent’s knees, Furcal’s shoulder and Brad Penny’s forearm all send them to the DL for extended periods of time, and the team falls to the basement.

Colorado Rockies (69-93) – They’re just bad. Really, really bad.

They added nine players to major league contracts through either free agency or trades. Four of those were pitchers. Three were utility infielders. They don’t exactly burn up the waiver wires and transaction page with a slew of moves.

Jose Mesa (yes, that Jose Mesa) was their biggest off-season acquisition. They lost a few solid offensive spare parts, most notably Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles to St. Louis in a trade for Ray King.

Unfortunately, they will never be able to field a competitive team until they either play in a dome with pressurized air or sign every top-level pitcher in the game. If they were sending out a rotation of Clemens, Pedro, Shilling, Sheets & Randy Johnson, with a bullpen consisting of the likes of Rivera, Gagne & K-Rod, then I might take them seriously. They’ll pick up their wins in those 11-10 barnburners, and Clint Barmes & Matt Holliday look like they could develop into solid everyday guys. But without reliable pitching (I mean, Byung-Hyun Kim is slotted in as their 4^th starter!), they’ll never be able to achieve much in that city.

Biggest Question(s): Will they ever be able to get out from under Todd Helton’s ridiculous contract?

Best possible scenario: Not a whole lot of chances to get better here. Maybe Barmes & Holliday contribute more as they get more playing time, and maybe they can push the 75-win mark.

posted by Big D @ 2:59 PM