Week 4 Picks
Week 4 Picks
It’s Week 4. I’m having a terrible season thus far picking against the spread (6-8 last week, 22-23-1 for ’05). Why not use this space to try and recap what we’ve learned so far into the NFL season?
n Green Bay is really, really bad. Some of us already knew this before the year started; others are just finding it out on their own.
n The theory of “The NFC can’t hold a candle to the AFC” isn’t holding much water right now. So far, there have been 10 AFC/NFC matchups – they’ve split them 5-5. If nothing else, that’s going to give me pause when I automatically take an AFC team in an inter-conference matchup.
n For as good as the Colts’ defense has been, allowing only 16 points combined over their first 3 games, the offense has fallen silent – scoring only 47. With wins against Baltimore & Cleveland among those first three games, I’d be a little more worried about he lack of offense than the revitalized D. Wait until they play a real team (ahem… New England, in Foxboro, in Week 9).
n No one in the NFC is really going to challenge Philly for that conference title this year. Tampa Bay will give a fight in the NFC title game, but that’s it.
n Teams that aren’t as good as the record says:
o Washington (2-0)
o Atlanta (2-1)
o Seattle (2-1)
o Miami (2-1)
o Denver (2-1)
n Teams that are better than their record would have you believe:
o Chicago (1-2)
o Carolina (1-2)
o Jacksonville (2-1)
o San Diego (1-2)
Alright, that’s enough Show & Tell for today. Let’s get in to some picks…
Surprisingly, there is only one road favorite this week (Indy @ Tennessee – no shock there)
I had a little fun this week. Before the injury reports came out, I went through the game and tried to set my own lines, just to see how close I’d be. Let’s just say that I should stick to picking games rather than handicapping them myself…
As always, home team in CAPS, and the lines are from ESPN.com’s Daily Line at 9AM, 9/29/05:
BENGALS (-9.5) over Texans – O/U (42.5): I believe in Cincinnati people. I don’t believe they’ll take the North from Pittsburgh in the long run, but I think the Bengals have the inside track to the wild card. Houston, on the other hand, sucks. Period. Terrible offense (and it isn’t/wasn’t the coordinator’s fault), the defense has never been good. And they still have to face Indy & Jacksonville twice.
Colts (-7) over TITANS – O/U (45): This is one of those sneaky over/under lines. If the Colts’ offense was just subdued by the tough defenses they’ve had to deal with (Jacksonville & Cleveland – not tough, but designed to stop Manning), Tennessee’s defense could get the distinct honor of being the first one to be absolutely lit up by Peyton, Edge, and the rest. But if Indy really is having issues, this game will be a lot closer than anyone thinks…
Chargers (+5.5) over PATRIOTS – O/U (47.5): Hold on… I’m just dodging lightning bolts… OK. Here’s the thing. I don’t believe that the Pats are losing this game. I do believe that Antonio Gates and LaDanian Tomlinson will torch them on the receiving end of the offense. No Rodney Harrison leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the field; one that I don’t think they’ll be able to fill. Pats by 4.
SAINTS (Pk) over Bills – O/U (39): This is just what J.P. Losman needs right now: an extremely emotional game against a team that is coming off of a very poorly played road game and will be very charged up for this one. I say Kelly Holcombe is in the game by the third quarter.
Rams (+3) over GIANTS – O/U (47): If Mike Martz has any semblance of a brain, he’ll look at how the Chargers dissected the Giants’ defense last week – run it hard, throw it deep. We should see a healthy dose of Steven Jackson and a lot of downfield sideline shots to Tory Holt & Ike Bruce. Of course, this is Mike Martz we’re talking about. More than likely, it’ll be short passes over the middle all day long, and he’ll forget Jackson’s jersey number by halftime.
BUCS (-6.5) over Lions – O/U (34.5): Well, I’m definitely suggesting the Over. More importantly, I’m having a hard time with my fantasy team. I really want to start Michael Clayton in this game, but I can’t bring myself to rely on Brian Griese. Instead, I’m starting Santana Moss vs. Seattle, relying on Mark Brunell. God, I should just forfeit the week now…
REDSKINS (-1.5) over Seahawks – O/U (36.5): Two mediocre (at best) offenses, one solid defense, one bad defense. This is an absolute toss-up (note the 1.5 point line). I’m basing this simply on the fact that Seattle is coming off of an extremely easy home win vs. Arizona, and has to travel across the country to face an above-average defense coming off a bye week. I think that’s good logic, don’t you?
JAGUARS (-4) over Broncos – O/U (36): Talk about a letdown game for the Broncos. They get a huge win at home, on Monday Night Football, against a longtime division rival. Now they have to travel ¾ of the way across the country, on a short week, to face a very good Jacksonville team... I mean, how often do the gambling gods give you a gift like this? More importantly, how many more “G-Words” could I have put into that last sentence?
Jets (+7) over RAVENS – O/U (30.5): OK, hear me out. The Ravens are coming off a bye week, so the traditional thinking would be that they’ve had a lot of time to prepare for the Jets. Plus it’s in Baltimore, so they have the home crowd and no flight. And finally, the Jets just lost their franchise QB and the backup QB, meaning they’re starting a guy who’s thrown all of 9 career NFL passes. Most people would take the Ravens and lay 20 points. But I think the Jets will surprise people in this game, keeping it close if not winning outright (remember – Baltimore’s offense is abysmal, too), spawning days of “Who needs Chad” talk all over the tri-state area. At least until next week…
FALCONS (-6) Over Vikings – O/U (44.5): Last week was a big win for both teams, but I’m putting a little more stock in Atlanta’s win, on the road in Buffalo, with a gimpy Mike Vick against an opportunistic defense rather than Minnesota beating up on a weary and pretty depressed New Orleans squad in the Metrodome. Let’s see Culpepper put up some numbers against an actual defense this week – then maybe they’ll return to respectability in my book.
CHIEFS (NL) over Eagles: There’s no line posted anywhere for this game right now, so I’m going to take a guess and put it at Philly (-4). No matter – I think the Chiefs win this game outright. They were flat out embarrassed in Denver last week, and their defensive holes were exposed on national TV. Philly is coming off of a very close game against a team that they should have crushed, plus they’re missing David Akers – by far the second best kicker in the NFL. He and Vinatieri are on a level by themselves. That’s a big loss going on the road to one of the most hostile stadiums in the NFL.
Cowboys (+3.5) over RAIDERS – O/U (46.5): Damnit, give me another 50-point Raiders O/U! I demand it! Oh well. The Cowboys showed a lot of heart bouncing back from the 4th-quarter debacle against the Redskins to hake a little comeback of their own last week against the 49ers. Interestingly enough, if they win this game, the Cowboys will have swept the state of California this year, having already beat San Diego & San Francisco. Too bad L.A doesn’t have a team…
49ers (+2.5) over CARDINALS – O/U (42.5): In what is sure to be the ugliest game of the week (yes, worse than Redskins/Seahawks), both teams will cough up leads in the last 10 minutes of the game. In overtime, there will be a missed field goal, a TD called back on a penalty, and finally a safety to end the game. Or maybe San Francisco will just blow the Cardinals out. I really have no idea.
PANTHERS (-8) over Packers – O/U (43): The single most inconsistent team in football this year, Carolina should have no trouble holding the Packers down on Monday Night. Green Bay might just luck out this season – if they are bad enough, they might be able to force Brett Favre to retire, leading to Aaron Rodgers and whichever hot prospect wide receiver emerges from this year’s draft class (Reggie Bush, anyone?)
Recap: BENGALS / Colts / Chargers / SAINTS / Rams / BUCS / REDSKINS / JAGUARS / Jets / FALCONS / CHIEFS / Cowboys / 49ers / PANTHERS
In other news, I will be completely unavailable for anything this weekend. Between Saturday work, Sox/Yankees, football, and the Sunday Poker Night, I’m tapped.
Lata.
Week 3 Recap
Quick Thoughts while trying to figure out why I didn’t call in sick today…
(This post was written in sections – first half at 8AM, second half at 3PM.
I had three meetings during the course of the day…)
n Well. That’s certainly the last time I EVER trust a Giants’ fan…
n Still patting myself on the back for being the only person around to pick the Cleveland/Indy game correctly…
n So… when do the “What’s wrong with Peyton Manning” questions start flying?
n Hell of a Pats/Steelers game yesterday. I watched most of the first half from a bar in Brighton after coming off the golf course, then listened to the 3rd quarter on the radio on the drive home before getting home in time to see the Steelers tie the game with 1:31 to go. My reaction? “They just killed themselves. Left waaaaaay too much time on the clock…” And they did.
n Chad Pennington might be done for the year with a shoulder injury, again. And with Jay Fiedler suffering a separated shoulder yesterday as well, the Jets are heading straight towards a mid-week signing of… Jeff George? Vinny Testaverde? Maybe Ray Lucas can have a second life in New York? Quincy Carter? I hear Rohan Davey is still available…
n I’m really looking forward to next weeks’ Pats/Chargers game in Foxboro. I can’t wait to hear everyone talk about how the Pats gutted one out yesterday, but how the Chargers offense is way too powerful, etc. They might have a point; Antonio Gates will probably have a huge day without Rodney Harrison patrolling the middle of the field after suffering what looked like a torn ACL yesterday. And if Matt Light’s leg is broken (which is what it looked like on replay), then that’s a HUGE loss on the O-Line. Going to be an interesting week…
n I liked what I saw from:
o New England. Duh.
o Indianapolis. Week 9 might just become the most over-hyped, non-Super Bowl, game ever.
o Tampa Bay. Cadillac Williams is proving that the 49ers, Dolphins, Browns and Bears all need to re-evaluate their scouting departments.
o Minnesota. Although I’m not putting much stock in any win over New Orleans this year.
o Mike Vick, Donovan McNabb, David Akers, Curtis Martin, Byron Leftwich. As someone who knows what chronic pain feels like, I have a lot of respect for what those five guys (and many others around the league, I’m sure) were able to do with relatively serious injuries. Especially Akers. I know he’s just a kicker, but when you can’t plant your foot and are still able to drill the game-winning field goal… it’s impressive.
n I was appalled by:
o My own stupidity. I know, this should come as a shock to no one, but my decision to flip-flop on the Giants/Chargers game last night was a poor one. Idiot.
o Green Bay. It’s getting painful just to watch them. An extra point cost you the game? An EXTRA POINT?
o New York. Take your pick. The Giants’ inept defense or the Jets’ useless (and quickly collapsing) offense. Brooks Bollinger might start next week for the Jets. Can we just hand the Patriots the AFC East by default?
o Arizona. Good-bye bandwagon.
o San Francisco. Absolutely no justifiable reason to cough up that game yesterday against Dallas. At least the Cowboys got to experience the good side of a 4th-quarter comeback.
n Congrats to the Owner and GM of “Big D and the Kids Table” – i.e. Me – for their 3rd straight win to open the season. I’ve never had a first place team in this particular fantasy football league – at no point in any of our 4 seasons have I been the #1 overall team (both record and points). After tonight’s’ games, it will be three straight weeks of domination. Yes, I’m gloating now to ensure the maximum amount of trash talking when my team inevitably turns into a Manning and collapses late in the season…
n Sticking with KC (+3) over Denver tonight, and big; the over – 48 - should be a no-brainer here…
Other random thoughts…
n I would like nothing more than for the Red Sox to be up by 1 game on October 1st, facing Randy Johnson and the Yankees, in Fenway, with Curt Schilling scheduled to start. There is no other active pitcher, with the possible exception of Roger Clemens, that I would rather have start that game for my team. Schilling just gets it. He loves the spotlight, and he lives for the “big moment”. Sure, it would only serve to feed his ego, but I’d deal with it…
n Naturally, I had planned to be in Boston, across the street from Fenway in “Who’s on First” for that game. But somehow, my employer decided to schedule a course for that weekend, and I have to work. Apparently, my bosses aren’t big baseball fans…
n Soooo glad to have hockey back and starting in a very short while…
n If the White Sox choke away the A.L. Central, will Bucky “Bleeping” Dent be erased from the memory of every Red Sox fan around the nation? I men, we only coughed up a 13 game lead. 15 is much worse…
n Damnit. I was right. Rodney Harrison tore his ACL. And Matt Light broke his leg. Harrison might be done forever, not just the rest of this year. That’s a shame, but at least the Patriots were able to get him a couple of rings.
Well, that put an even bigger damper on an otherwise lousy Monday morning. Bad, bad weekend. Maybe someday I’ll tell ya about it…
Lata.
2005 NFL Season - Week 3 Picks
Alright, I guess I put this week’s picks off long enough. I tried to wait out the two games that have been pulled off the board – Jacksonville @ NYJ and Atlanta @ Buffalo, but since neither line has been reposted, I guess I’ll just have to wing it.
I’m coming off of a 7-8-1 week, putting me at 16-15-1 for the year. Hey, as long as it’s still above .500, I’m happy.
I’m also coming off of a 22-hour poker session at Foxwoods last night with a short 2-hour nap in my car as my only break, so let me apologize right away if this is disjointed or if there are multiple spelling errors. I’m just trying to get my picks up before I go to bed for 14 hours, waking up in time to go play my final round of golf for the year tomorrow. I won’t bore you with the gory details of the poker session – suffice it to say that stupid people with nothing better to do with their money should not be allowed to sit at my table and chase cards. There – I said it. Onto the picks...
Lines as of 5PM – Saturday, September 24th:
Titans (+6.5) over RAMS – O/U (45.5): I just keep seeing the AFC versus the NFC, and unless the NFC team involved is the Eagles, Panthers, or perhaps now the Bears, I’m almost always going to favor the AFC. Plus, I really like the Titans’ defense. They’re getting back to the level of the 1999 team that came within one yard of a Lombardi Trophy.
EAGLES (-8.5) over Raiders – O/U (46): Wow – the Raiders are involved in a game with an O/U below 50? Well, now I’ve seen everything. I don’t have any reason to pick against the Eagles for awhile – they’re much better than I expected them to be. Quick aside: I had Terrell Owens in my fantasy football league last week. At halftime, he had 143 yards and 2 TD (to be fair, he had those numbers halfway through the 2nd quarter). He gave me 26 points by the half – and then didn’t catch another pass. I still won, but I can’t imagine if he’d played the entire game...
BEARS (+3) over Bengals – O/U (39): I don’t care that the Bengals have blown out the Browns and Vikings. All I care about is that the current Bears’ defense is quickly bringing back memories of the comically good Bears’ defense of 1985. Granted, they haven’t exactly faced a superior offensive team (Washington and Detroit need not apply), but they’re at home and getting points, all the while watching their bandwagon make more and more stops to pick up supporters all over the Mid-West...
Jaguars (+2.5) over JETS – O/U (33.5) (numbers from ESPN.com Daily Lines): This is one of the lines that Bodog.com has pulled, meaning that I can’t bet on it. I’m not pleased. I’ve got no faith in the Jets anymore – Chad Pennington looks like he’s lobbing darts rather than firing a football. Miami should have been a cakewalk last week for them – instead they ended up winning by 10 thanks to a late-game Dolphins’ turnover. The Jets’ defense isn’t good enough to carry them, and their offense isn’t good enough to control games. 7-9 is looking more and more like the right number...
Saints (+4) over VIKINGS – O/U (44.5): Well, first things first – let’s grab that Over... OK, now for the game. After the debacle of an NFL game that took place in New York last Monday, you think the Saints aren’t going to be fired up for this one? More importantly, do you think that Daunte Culpepper will be? Two weeks into the year, and he already looks like he’s just playing for his paycheck....
Panthers (-3.5) over DOLPHINS – O/U (36.5): This is probably going to end up as the second most physical game of the week, if not the year. Nick Saban’s got the inside track on the Panthers, considering that best buddy Bill Belichick just watched his own team get smoked by Carolina. More importantly, the Dolphins aren’t very good...
Browns (+14) over COLTS – O/U (47): Showing a complete lack of respect for the Browns, the odds makers have apparently set the O/U at the point level that they expect Indy to reach by themselves. Something to keep in mind – the Patriots’ defenses that have confounded Peyton Manning for the past few seasons... well, those were designed and run by Romeo Crennel – new Browns’ Head Coach. I’m not saying that the Browns are winning this game, but they’ll probably keep it close...
BILLS (-2.5) over Falcons – O/U (36) (numbers from ESPN.com Daily Line): The second game that has been pulled by Bodog.com... Apparently Mike Vick’s injury is that important. Doesn’t matter – I’d take Buffalo with a full strength Vick anyway. I was watching the second half of the Seahawks/Falcons game last week with my friend Jay when Vick scrambled, spun around in the backfield, then fired a BB to a receiver in triple coverage who proceeded to make a great catch for a drive-saving first down. My response? “That right there is why I love and hate Mike Vick. I can’t even appreciate his amazing plays, because the result was more luck than skill. Such a terrible decision that was rewarded by a great catch...” I have no faith in the Falcons anymore, either.
Bucs (-4) over PACKERS – O/U (37.5): Wow. Did you ever think you’d see the day, during the Brett Favre era, when the Pack was so bad that they’d be underdogs, in Lambeau, to the Bucs? This is quickly devolving into a very, very sorry season for the Packers. Mike Sherman might be ushered out the door with Brett Favre...
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Cardinals – O/U (42): I’ve officially sworn off the Cardinals. I want to take the points so badly, especially because it’s Seattle we’re talking about here, a team that gives points about as often as Edgar Renteria has an error-free game in the field. But I just can’t. Arizona, you’ve lost me forever. (Reverse psychology alert! Reverse psychology alert!)
Patriots (+3) over STEELERS – O/U (42): I’m almost certain that this game is going to end up with more broken bones than points scored. This is going to be the Steelers’ first test since the Pats marched into Heinz field and dismantled then 15-1 Pittsburgh. Since then, the Patriots are 2-1 (with a Super Bowl title), and the Steelers are 2-0 without a win over a quality team. Sorry, I’m still taking the Pats until someone beats them. (No, the Panthers’ game doesn’t count. New England beat themselves with stupid penalties and turnovers. Carolina didn’t win; New England lost.)
49ERS (+6.5) over Cowboys – O/U (40.5): The only questions here are A) Which Niners team shows up? The team from Week 1 or from Week 2? B) When will the Cowboys choke this week? With 2 quarters to go? 2 minutes? Immediately after “...the home of the brave”? And C) Honestly, how many people are ecstatic that they got Drew Bledsoe as Mr. Irrelevant in their fantasy drafts? Don’t worry – #2 in overall passer rating - a little over 110 - won’t last...
Giants (+6) over CHARGERS – O/U (43): I’m letting myself get talked into this pick. All week, I’ve been saying “Chargers Chargers Chargers”. Then last night I talked to a Giants fan that actually made some sense (stunning, I know). He didn’t have any real pearls of wisdom, but he seemed to have a little more knowledge of the New York football Giants than I. Maybe it was the 6 cappuccinos. Maybe it was the fact that we were talking football at 4AM over a poker table. Or maybe he was wrong. But the fact is, I’ve got to respect a 2-0 team getting six and a half over an 0-2 team with a coach that is known for terribly underachieving.
Chiefs (+3) over BRONCOS – O/U (48): Oh, so close! No 50+ O/U this week. Oh well, I guess we’ll have to settle for the 2005 AFC West Champion Chiefs dismantling yet another division opponent on the road. The Chiefs look for real this year folks. And I know I’d pay good money to watch a blubbering Dick Vermiel win another Super Bowl and retire instantaneously.
Recap: Titans / EAGLES / BEARS / Jaguars / Saints / Panthers / Browns / BILLS / Bucs / SEAHAWKS / Patriots / 49ERS / Giants / Chiefs
Oh, and don’t forget the obligatory Bye (+6) over TEXANS mention. What a lousy team...
Lata.
Quick Thoughts - Week 2 Recap
Quick thoughts while wondering if it’s too early to start changing predictions…
n You know, it’s amazing. I know the Lions are overrated, I know that they can’t win on the road, I know that the Bears have an extremely good defense, and yet I still manage to find a way to parlay the Lions (-2) into all but 2 of my bets this weekend. Smooth, D. Real smooth…
n So, let’s see. The Vikings are 0-2 and looked awful, again. The Ravens are 0-2, and have still not found a way to produce anything on offense. The Chargers are 0-2, and looked terrible late in both games. The Pats, Rams, and Panthers are 1-1. And the Colts & Eagles are 2-0. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the ultimate in parity – D’s predictions as 2005 Division Winners!
n Ugly, ugly weekend. Between the Sox splitting with the A’s, the Pats coughing one up in Carolina (winnable game without the 12 penalties for 86 yards – six false starts?! – and 233 return yards allowed), and my ill-advised, boredom-fueled return to online poker, plus the aforementioned Lions-parlays, it was just a less than pleasant weekend for me all around. At least I look poised to win the week in 2 of 3 fantasy football leagues.
n I liked what I saw from:
o Carolina. This is the Panthers team we all expected to see this year. Unfortunately, they had to show up against the Patriots.
o Jacksonville. That AFC South isn’t just going to be handed to the Colts this year, folks. Expect a dogfight all season long.
o Kansas City. Two weeks, 24 total points allowed. I can remember games in the last couple of years where 24 points allowed was a good quarter for the KC defense.
o Chicago. They’re slowly creeping up to… first place in the NFC North?! With Minnesota & Green Bay 0-2, they now hold the tiebreaker over the Lions. That bandwagon is getting heavier and heavier…
o Chad Pennington. OK, maybe his shoulder isn’t 100%, but maybe it’s not completely useless, either.
o Philadelphia. Wow. Can I take a mulligan on that 49ers pick from Thursday? “Teams always get that garbage-time TD to make it close”. In this case, San Francisco would have needed four garbage-time TD’s to cover the line. Oops.
o Ben Roethlisberger. 2-0 in his sophomore season (Slump? What slump?), and he was actually worse yesterday. He’s got a 153.6 passer rating through the first two weeks. That’s pretty good…
n I was appalled by:
o The Patriots’ coaching staff. Hear me out here. Poor play-calling. Good, but not great adjustments at halftime (they looked ready to take over in the third quarter until Brady fumbled). A sudden inability to throw the little red challenge flag (Steven Davis DID NOT score that TD, although I can understand that a challenge was basically useless – it couldn’t have been called a fumble.) Just not the best effort of the Belichick era…
o Minnesota. C’mon, Randy Moss could not have been that integral to this team. I mean, the Raiders are 0-2 with him. Did Daunte Culpepper just forget how to throw to anyone without #84 on his jersey? At least, anyone on his own team…
o Green Bay. This is the end of an era. Plain and simple. Someday, we’ll look back on the mid-90’s – early 00’s Packers as an absolutely great team that reached their peak early in the run (Super Bowl XXXII) and never hit full potential again.
o Baltimore. Can we get Jeff George’s agent on the phone? Ryan Leaf? Anyone that can throw a spiral? I’m available if you need me. Maybe we could get that ex-NFL quarterback who’s on Survivor right now…
o San Diego. Remember last week when I said I was impressed by Kansas City, and made mention that the Chargers were going to get a fight for the AFC West? Well, I might have been a little off. I’m starting to wonder if anyone will give The Chiefs a fight for the AFC West. Awful. Totally awful.
o Detroit. Although, really, I shouldn’t be so surprised by this.
n Can you say “Bengals – AFC Wild Card team”? I know, it might sound strange. Maybe even wrong. But it’s looking like they’ll be serious contenders for that title…
n If Joey Harrington is the starting QB for the Lions next week, there’s a serious problem with the NFL. I don’t care if your backup QB is named Dan Orlovsky – he can’t possibly be any worse than Harrington right now. I’ve been a big Harrington supporter for three years now, and I’m fed up. Move on, take your lumps, and draft someone in the off-season.
n Ditto for the Ravens, unless Kyle Boller pulls a Superman and returns to lead Baltimore to the playoffs.
n Mike Tice – I wouldn’t go making any plans to stick around in Minnesota after this 1-year contract runs out…
n Next weeks’ Pats/Steelers matchup is probably going to be one of the most physical games you will ever see. The Pats are fired up; the Steelers are on a roll. Add in the possible return of Jerome Bettis (although, if you’re Bill Cowher, are you really in any rush to sit Willy Parker and welcome back The Bus?), and you’re looking at football, circa 1947.
OK, I think I’ve vented enough. I’m sticking by my picks for tonight - Giants (-3), Cowboys (-6). If both of them are right, I finish the week 8-7-1. If not, well, I might just have more to rant about tomorrow.
Lata.
NFL Picks - Week 2
NFL Picks - Week 2
Before I get into this week’s picks, I have to mention two things that happened last night, if only because I have absolutely no idea how to react to them.
1) Gabe Kapler ruptured his Achilles’ tendon rounding second base last night… on a home run. I was watching the game as it happened, and the first thing I thought was “Damn. I thought only I got injured in stupid ways like that”. That thought was quickly followed by “Wow, I wonder how many of my Yankees’ fan friends are going to get on me for this one…” Surprisingly, none (yet). Anyway, Gabe’s done for the year, meaning the Sox are short their best reserve player. This should make the rest of September a little more nail-biting…
2) While talking with my mother last night, we happened on the topic of reality TV (I told her that I thought the “special guest Survivors” for the newest installment of CBS’ “Survivor: 11” were going to be Boston Rob & Amber, which would just be painful at this point. It’s not. According to multiple spoiler websites, it’s two people from last season…yes; I research the things I write… Maybe too much.) Anyway, we were discussing reality TV, when she blurted out “You know what show I really liked? That ‘Tommy Lee Goes to College’”. Yes. My mother, the mild-mannered, conservative, elementary school nurse, was a big fan of “Tommy Lee Goes to College”. She recounted in great detail half of the episodes and plot lines, everything from Tommy Lee starting his own fraternity to trying out for the University of Nebraska Marching Band. My jaw still hasn’t come off the floor.
So… uh... how about that local sports team, eh? As you can see, after that little revelation about my mother’s television viewing habits, I’m not really ready to speak coherently for awhile… let’s just make some picks.
As always, home teams in CAPS. Lines from ESPN.com via SportsInteraction.com are accurate as of 9AM this morning. And, for the record, if anyone is interested in using the same sports book that I do, it’s Bodog.com. If you would like an extra bonus, feel free to use me as a referral (Acct: #359545). They’ve got some pretty decent deposit bonuses (20% for another week, 10% after that), as well as friendly parlay rules (ties aren’t losses – absolute godsend).
OK, I’m looking to improve on last week’s 9-7. Luckily, this week’s lines look like they’ll be friendly…
Lions (-1.5) over BEARS – O/U (33): OK, just because the Bears’ offense is anemic doesn’t justify that 33-point Over/Under. Absolutely no reason for that. The Lions should be able to put up 24-27 on their own this week, even on the road, against a solid defense. You can’t tell me that Chicago can’t manage at least 10 points against the Lions… Then again, Brett Favre was held to 3 points last week.
BENGALS (-3) over Vikings – O/U (47.5): I’ve lost all faith in NFC teams against the AFC. I don’t even think it matters who wins the NFC Title game this year – the Pats/Colts/Steelers/Ravens will handle them in the Super Bowl. As for this game, well if it was indoors I’d give Minnesota a little more respect. But last week was U-G-L-Y. This is an early-season “prove it” game for both teams, and I think Cincy wants it more.
Ravens (-4) over TITANS – O/U (37): Now this Over/Under is a little more sensible, considering the offenses involved. The Ravens made a fool of me last week, so naturally I’m sticking with them this week. All I can say is this – Kyle Boller better get healthy soon, because this offense was scary bad before he got hurt. It’s getting close to Wes Craven territory now with Anthony Wright.
Jaguars (+9) over COLTS – O/U (46): You don’t know how much I want to take the Colts in this game, simply because it’s a home game. But I’ve got a ton of faith in Jacksonville this year. I survived the Week 1 Eliminator simply because I took them instead of the Rams like the rest of the world. I think Indy scores big, but I just don’t think they run away with it. The Jags have the weapons to hang with Indy on offense, and they’ve got a better defense. This one will be closer than people (especially handicappers) think.
I pause here to make a quick recommendation to anyone reading this. Do not, repeat: DO NOT, drink a Cran-Apple-Raspberry juice drink immediately after drinking 24 ounces of Dunkin’ Donuts coffee at 9AM. It is a taste experience that should never happen to anyone. In fact, let’s pretend that I didn’t just do that. Ugh…
Niners (+13.5) over EAGLES – O/U (41): OK, you know what, I’m reserving judgment on this game. Most sports books have pulled the line until Sunday morning, when McNabb’s injury status becomes clearer. Personally, I think the Niners can cover either way (teams always get that garbage TD just to make it interesting). But without a healthy McNabb, forget it – it’s a 6 point Phily win at most. In fact, if it turns out that McNabb’s sitting for this game, I’d be stunned to see any book release this line above 6.
Bills (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS – O/U (35.5): Two good defenses, two mediocre offenses. Yeah, that O/U looks about right. I’d have said about 37 or 38, but close enough. I like Buffalo’s early season schedule a lot – this looks like one of their toughest games, and that’s not saying much. If they get a little momentum, they could end up sneaking away with 10 wins and an outside shot at a wild card.
Patriots (-3.5) over PANTHERS – O/U (43.5): This game scares me. In fact, I’m not putting a dime on it. The Pats obviously have history on their side, and they are the better team. But Carolina cannot open the season 0-2, at home, and have any realistic shot of making the playoffs. Just not going to happen. Even with that in mind, I can’t pick against New England until someone beats them. Period.
Steelers (-6.5) over TEXANS – O/U (38.5): Houston is in trouble – look for Dom Capers to get put squarely on the hot seat by about week 7. The Steelers are not exactly a team to be playing when you’re trying to get your offense back in sync. Maybe next week, when Houston faces, uh, the bye week. They’ll probably only open as 2-point ‘dogs for that one…
Rams (+1) over CARDINALS – O/U (44.5): I’m officially jumping ship from the Cardinals’ bandwagon. Like I said in my NFL Preview, they’re this year’s Lions – way too many expectations, leading to a complete and utter failure of a season – even if they win 7 or 8 games. It’s scary to think that, right now, the 49ers lead the NFC West and hold the tiebreaker over St. Louis…
Falcons (Pk) over SEAHAWKS – O/U (41.5): What a tough week for Atlanta CB Kevin Mathis. First, he picks a fight with Eagles LB Jeremiah Trotter and gets tossed before the MNF game even starts. Then the league hands him a $10,000 fine for the fight. And yesterday in practice, he landed awkwardly and tore three ligaments in his knee that could end his career. I mean, what else could go wrong for this guy, short of a gigantic can of “Milwaukee’s Best” beer falling from the sky and crushing him?
Chargers (+3) over BRONCOS – O/U (45): Everyone seems so eager to dismiss the Chargers as one-year wonders. And after last week, I might agree. But they played a vastly improved Dallas team, and they had their #1 receiving threat (Antonio Gates) on the suspended list. Admittedly, that was asinine. You want to send him a message for holding out? Fine him a week’s pay. But keep him on the field. This week, they play a terrible Denver team coming off a blowout loss to the Dolphins. And the Broncos are favored? Are you kidding?
Browns (+6.5) over PACKERS – O/U (41): If my friend Chris actually ever read this blog, he’d probably be killing me for picking against the Pack two straight weeks. I think they’ll win this game outright, but not by more than 6 points. Plus, that Over/Under is waaaaay too low for two teams with exactly zero defense between them. This would be a nice parlay option. You know, if betting on football were actually legal or anything…
Dolphins (+6) over JETS – O/U (37): I have nothing to add to the discussion of how horrible Chad Pennington looked against the Chiefs last week. That said, I don’t think he’ll be the reason that the Jets lose this game. I think Ronnie Brown will run up a storm against a Jets’ defensive line that had more holes than, well, this is a family column, so let’s just say that they looked really, really bad last week.
Chiefs (-1.5) over RAIDERS – O/U (53.5): There it is! The obligatory 50+ O/U for the week! In the first two weeks of the year, there have been two 50+ Over/Under lines. Both involved the Raiders (@NE – O/U was 50 last week… ended up as a push). This game should surpass the 60-point mark, unless that Chiefs’ defensive performance from last week was more about them being good than about the Jets being very, very bad.
Giants (-3.5) over SAINTS – O/U (44): I know, it’s in New York. But the Saints are still technically the “home” team. Doesn’t matter. I hate picking against New Orleans at all this year, but I have to pick with my brain, not my heart. Of course, that means the Saints will probably win by 10, since we all know I’m completely brain-dead.
COWBOYS (-6) over Redskins – O/U (36): 36? Really? Not much faith in Dallas repeating last week’s performance, eh? Well, even if the O/U looks bad, the line should look nice. The Redskins, although gifted defensively, have already changed Quarterbacks (Mark Brunell is the starter for Monday), and they have rookie Jason Campbell just waiting to step in once the season is completely lost. You know, by about Week 6.
Recap: Lions / BENGALS / Ravens / Jaguars / Niners / Bills / Patriots / Steelers / Rams / Falcons / Chargers / Browns / Dolphins / Chiefs / Giants / COWBOYS
Holy hell. Did I just pick 14 road teams? Oh, no, only 13 with one “road” team playing at home. That’s much better.
Six ‘home” underdogs this week, including the Saints. That’s downright scary. And I picked against all of them. Oh, I’m suddenly not feeling very good. Must be that damned Cran-Apple-Raspberry juice plus coffee experience. I gotta go.
Lata.
Quick Thoughts - September 13th
Quick Thoughts while plotting my revenge against the Forty-Niners…
n 9-7 to open the season. Not stellar, but not terrible either. Actually, it’s an improvement over last year, when I started 8-7-1.
n I need to learn to listen to my own advice. After the Niners blew up my best shot at a big payday in Week 1 (more on that later), I finished Sunday up all of $40. I decided to make my weekly “Monday Night Get-Healthy” bet. Naturally, I let myself get talked into the hype about the Eagles, even though I knew it was going to be a low-scoring, Atlanta win. So I took the Eagles (-2) and the Over (43). Final Score? Falcons, 14-10. Perfect.
n I liked what I saw from:
o Miami’s Offense
o Indy’s Defense (They look possessed – very possibly 7-0 when they come to Foxboro in November)
o Kansas City, all around. San Diego is going to get a run for that division.
o The Patriots’ second-half (although, to be honest, I fell asleep at halftime and only saw highlights. Hey, I had to work the next day)
o Da Bears. Sure they only scored 7 points, but they only allowed 9. Yes, I realize that still equates to a loss…
o Anything and everything the Saints accomplish this season. No excuses; just play ball. And that’s exactly what they did.
n I was appalled by:
o Chad Pennington suddenly contracting Kurt Warner disease. SIX fumbles? Are you kidding? It was like watching a Pop Warner game out there.
o The Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams and Carolina Panthers. Confirming, once again, that the NFC is completely wide-open. Also confirming that I have absolutely no idea what’s going on in the NFC (those were my 4 division winners)…
o The Cardinals. Man, the wheels came off of that bandwagon pretty damned fast, huh?
o Luckily, there’s plenty of room on the Lions’ wagon…
o The Michigan Wolverines. Sorry, but as a Big Blue fan, that was a terrible, terrible game against Notre Dame. And I can’t even be mad, because I’m required to support Charlie Weis by law.
o At least Ohio State lost too… But that was a HELL of a game.
n OK, so when did the 49ers become an NFL team? Before Sunday, I would have taken USC and laid 2 touchdowns in a game against the Niners. Now? I mean, I know it was the Rams’ defense, but still. As for how they blew up my big payday: I had a nice $20 6-way parlay that was paying almost 53-1 (how I got that, I’ll never know). Game #6 was the Rams (-6) over the Niners. It’s the only one I missed. I had the Lions (-3), Jags (-3), Bears (+5.5), Dolphins (+4.5) and Bengals (-4) mixed in to one parlay. If the Rams had even pushed, I would have gotten paid on the 5-way at about 40-1. You cost me a grand, San Francisco. I’m staying away from you for the rest of the year…
n If you blinked, you might have missed Sunday’s 10- Yankees/Red Sox gem of a game. At 2 hours and 29 minutes, it was very possible to flip to the football game for one half, then flip back to the baseball game and realize it was over. That’s basically what I did – turned on the Sox game, watched Giambi’s pop-fly home run, then flipped to the Panthers/Saints on Fox. By the time the first half ended, I went back to the Sox and it was the 8th inning. Anyway, helluva game. Even if the Yankees won. At least what I saw of it was good…
n Updating my Mid-Season MLB predictions (now that there’s only 20 games left and it’s hard to screw this up a third time), I’ve got the Red Sox, the White Sox, and the California Angels of Los Angeles via Anaheim who fly into Burbank while driving through the OC as my AL division winners, with Cleveland taking the Wild Card, and Atlanta, St. Louis, San Diego (like the West matters…) and Houston from the NL. Andruw Jones and Alex Rodriguez are the MVP’s. Ozzie Guillen and Bobby Cox should be the managers of the year (although Eric Wedge is going to earn a lot of votes in September). Let’s see how many of these are wrong in a month.
n Something to consider. If (and that’s a HUGE if) the Giants manage to make some kind of astounding run back to the top of the NL West (they’re six games back right now), does Barry Bonds’ name suddenly vault atop the NL MVP list? Just wondering.
Alright, that’s it. Picks Thursday/Friday
Lata.
