The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Labor Day is possibly the single greatest invention ever. Or at least for those of us who have the day off. I’m spending the day cleaning my house and watching roughly 18 hours of a Law & Order marathon, baseball and poker on ESPN/ESPN2.

So here’s the deal. There hasn’t been much happening in the baseball world that you either haven’t already heard about or that you’re interested in. I could talk about the shellacking that the Yankees got at the hands of the Indians, but you’ve already heard all about that. (Quick Aside: great line on the radio the next day – “It was an outrage that Cleveland elected to go for two after already being up three touchdowns against New York that late in the game...” Had to get that one in.)

I could talk about the Red Sox monumental surge to within 2.5 games of those same Yankees, or about Kevin Brown doing his best imitation of me and breaking his hand punching a wall in anger, or about the other hot teams all around baseball (A’s, Astros, Braves, etc.). Or maybe we could have our very own debate over who should win some postseason hardware (Bonds, Manny for MVPs, Santana and Schmidt for Cy’s, Showalter and Cox for Managers, and Khalil Greene and Kevin Youkilis - if eligible - else Bobby Crosby getting ROY’s).

But, uh, nope. And do you know why? Because it’s time to talk lines. Football is back!

Last season I went 65-55-3 during the regular season, and 7-3 in the playoffs. I also made a little under 500% profit, but enough so that I (a) had a good couple of days at Foxwoods, and (b) didn’t have to report to the IRS. Thank God. Allow me to plug the good people at BetOnSports.com for assisting me in my first try as a handicapper. They made the experience a pleasant, one, and I will likely re-up with them in the near future.

Anyway, I only started picking games in my second column, so my record is obviously short a few games. This will be my first full season of handicapping, so good luck, and away we go!

(As always, the home team is in caps)

Betting lines accurate as of 3PM on Monday, September 6^th

PATRIOTS (-3) over Colts (Thursday Night): Be forewarned, I hate betting on my own team. That being said, I don’t see the Pats losing this game, period. For as bad as they looked all preseason, remember this: In the 2001 preseason, they were 0-4. They won the Super Bowl. In the 2002 preseason, they were 4-0. They missed the playoffs. In the 2003 preseason, they were 0-4. They won the Super Bowl. This year’s preseason, 1-3. Translation? THE PRESEASON MEANS NOTHING! Even with the rules changes, the Pats still know how to stop the Colts – slow the run, make Manning move out of the pocket. He’s not accurate on the move.

Titans (-3.5) over DOLPHINS: Seriously, I don’t see the Dolphins even competing in a game before Week 9 against Arizona (although Week 3 against the Steelers might be close). This team has almost no offense, and they traded away their second best D-lineman for a #1 receiver, but they traded with a team (The Bears) that had a solid running back they could part with, which is what Miami really needed. Think Dan Marino is happy about passing up the GM’s position now?

Raiders (+4) over STEELERS: I don’t think the Raiders are going to be very good this year, in fact, I predicted them to go 8-8 and finish third in the AFC West. But I also predicted Pittsburgh to go 7-9 (which, ironically, I think will put them 2^nd in the AFC North). Translation: Although the Raiders look bad, the Steelers look worse. Rich Gannon is healthy, and the defense looks pretty good, but they don’t have any kind of running game to speak of. Pittsburgh needs to get Ben Rothlisberger into games ASAP, and then find a way to upgrade their secondary, which was awful last year and didn’t get much better in the off-season.

REDSKINS (-1.5) over Bucs: By now, you all should know how I feel about Washington. I like this team to go places this year. I also don’t much care for the Bucs with what is looking more and more like a running-back by committee situation. If there’s one thing we Boston fans know, it’s that the words “By Committee” should never find their way into a conversation about a professional sports franchise.

Ravens (-3) over BROWNS: Anybody else happy about seeing Deion Sanders come back and play for Baltimore? Prime Time should actually make an impact on a team that needed some help in the secondary, at least they did until Chris MacAllister saw the writing on the wall and came back to camp. As for the Browns, they look bad. Lee Suggs’ presence will be the saving grace for the year – he’s just flat out fun to watch.

Jaguars (+3) over BILLS: Again, here’s another team I’m expecting big things out of (Jax). I think they’ll surprise a lot of people around the league this year, with a good young arm in Byron Leftwich and one of the top 10 running backs in the league, when healthy, in Fred Taylor. The Bills have a running back controversy brewing, and a statue at QB, albeit a well-paid, job-secure statue now that both backup QB’s have been lost to injury.

JETS (-4.5) over Bengals: Like I’ve said time and again, the Jets, if healthy, could give the Patriots a serious run for the AFC East this year. They now start a defensive front four made up entirely of former #1 draft picks, they have probably the second-best QB in the league under the age of 29, right behind Tom Brady, and Curtis Martin is still very capable of churning out a 1200+ yd, 12 TD season. The Bengals looked good in the preseason (which we’ve already established means nothing), but I don’t trust first year QB’s, especially not those that have a solid, proven starter lurking over their shoulders (or vice versa).

Lions (+3) over BEARS: Mark it down – this will be the Lions’ first road win since 2001. The Bears are just abysmal on offense, and although they got a major upgrade on defense with Adewale Ogunleye, one man cannot carry an entire defensive unit. The Lions are young, fast, and poised to shock the NFL this season. Now if only they had a defense...

RAMS (-11) over Cardinals: I can’t believe that there is an 11 point line in the first week of the season, but considering the teams involved, yes, I can. The Rams are still the team to beat in the NFC West, and the Cardinals, despite the Niners’ best efforts this season, are still the team to beat up on. Arizona will be better the second time these teams meet – Week 15, when they should have Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald healthy, but for now, they’re relying on Josh McCown, Emmitt Smith, and no receivers.

Seahawks (-2.5) over SAINTS: The Saints are always an enigma to me. They’re either dominant early and fall apart late or they’re horrible early and then sneak up on everyone later, only to fall short. Either way, the Seahawks are a better team this year. Hasselbeck and Alexander are really coming into their own, and if Koren Robinson can break out of his 2-year slump and be the receiver the ‘Hawks thought they were drafting, Seattle will contend with St. Louis for the West, and make a serious charge in the playoffs.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Chargers: The Texans are one of the best expansion teams I’ve ever gotten to watch. Cleveland still hasn’t recaptured their magic from their pre-“Art Modell is a big fat Devil and also the Antichrist” days, and I don’t think we’ll ever see a run like Carolina and Jacksonville both had when they each made the Conference Title games in their second year, but Houston is making a strong bid for the playoffs. In any other division, they’d have a good shot. Not in this one. I have nothing to say about the Chargers, and that’s probably for the best.

Giants (+9.5) over EAGLES: No, the G’nts aren’t winning this game outright. But they’re also not losing by 10 or more. Philly has a solid, if not spectacular, team, but even though Brian Westbrook is a good running back, I don’t think he can carry the load for this team all year. The Giants are probably staring at the NFC East basement, again. Kurt Warner is just keeping the seat warm for Eli Manning, but who knows how long that will take? 3 games? 3 quarters? 3 plays? 3 concussions?

VIKINGS (-4.5) over Cowboys: The Vikes look scary good this year, and the Cowboys just look scary. I’m sorry, but any team relying on a 40+ year old QB and a QB that hasn’t played football in 3 years or so, and NEVER on the pro level, just isn’t going to get it done. The Cowboys might just fall past the Giants in the NFC East, and that’d be a feat.

Falcons (-3.5) over 49ERS: I’ll tell you what, I can’t wait to watch Michael Vick pick apart the horrific San Fran secondary. If they go for the play fakes, he’ll run by them. If they respect the run, he’ll fire bullets to wide open receivers. The Niners CANNOT keep up with Vick. Hell, looking at them this year, I don’t think they could keep up with me under center. Well, that might be a bit of an overstatement...

Chiefs (+3) over BRONCOS: Although the Chiefs have no defensive talent outside of their coordinator, I still think they’ll find a way to keep the Broncos in check. And by “In check”, I of course mean that they’ll find a way to allow them to score only as many points as KC’s offense can beat. Like, say, 45 or so.

PANTHERS (-3) over Packers (Monday Night): I see no reason why the Panthers shouldn’t dominate their division, and maybe even their conference. In fact, I even predicted them to make it back to the NFC title game, where I still think they’ll lose. As for the Packers, I really hope that Brett Favre can go out in style, with a winning season, and maybe even a playoff berth. But I don’t think it will happen. The offense is solid, but, once again, the defense just isn’t there (remember 4^th and 26? Well they didn’t get any better in the off season).

Quick Recap: Pats / Titans / Raiders / Skins / Ravens / Jags / Jets / Lions / Rams / Seahawks / Texans / Giants / Vikings / Falcons / Chiefs / Panthers

So that’s it for Week 1. Man it feels good to be putting the picks on paper. I’m going to let you in on my personal strategy – I don’t bet Week 1. Too many things can happen, too many surprises, and there’s always The Cardinals.

On a semi-personal note, take note of the following. On September 18^th, I, along with some of my friends, will be making complete asses out of ourselves during a concert by a yet unnamed group fronted by two of my best friends, Don & Kurto. They held a concert last year, which also featured yours truly making an ass of himself, and it was a huge success. Anyway, for those of you interested in attending, it is at Copperfield’s bar on Brookline Ave. in Boston, about a block away from Fenway Park. 9/18, $2 cover, doors at 7:30. Last year the show lasted until the doors closed at 2AM, and this year will probably be a bit shorter. But prepare for a long, rockin’ night in the city.

Oh yeah. You knew it had to happen. “Kurtopalooza II – Kurto’s Revenge” is here.