As the football season draws closer, and the baseball season winds down, I am left with only one thing to focus on – How to build my championship Fantasy Football team(s).
Yes, I take this fantasy stuff WAAAAY too seriously. But when you’re playing for pride, what else could possibly matter? I’m in three leagues, all of which draft this weekend. So today, I’m going to list my top fantasy players for 2004 – just one man’s view of who to grab and when to grab them. And keep in mind, if I’m playing against you in any fantasy league (and if you’re reading this, then I probably am), you’ll have to decide if I’m truly sincere with these picks or if I’m trying to lead you down the wrong path. Conspiracy Theorists of the world unite!
Quarterbacks
My boy
Off the top of my head, I can name about 10-15 quarterback situations that aren’t in limbo. Of those teams, only five (Manning, Culpepper, Hasselbeck, Vick, Green) can be counted on to put up consistently high numbers.
Notice a couple of big names that I left out – McNabb, McNair, Favre, Brady, Brooks. Yeah, they’ll put up the numbers. But not on a week-to-week, “fantasy stud” type basis. McNair and McNabb will miss their running games, although Chris Brown on the Titans looks pretty good. Brady has never been a fantasy stud, even if he is a top three all-around NFL QB. Favre is getting older, but I still expect good things out of him. Just not every week. Aaron Brooks is a bit of a paradox. He’s got a great offense surrounding him, and some weeks you wonder how the Saints haven’t gotten to a Super Bowl yet. Then other weeks, you watch
So this year, who can you grab once the big guns are all gone? Here’s my take.
Drew Bledsoe – Once a marquis QB, his stock fell unbelievably fast during last year’s implosion (which, coincidentally, came in the first year that I’ve ever owned him as a starting QB). New Buffalo QB coach Sam Wyche has him reworking his mechanics to try and get Drew to deliver the ball quicker and more accurately. That should lower his sack numbers and keep him healthier – that’s a decent combination.
Chad Pennington – The kid’s good, no doubt. But he’s got some health questions surrounding him after last year’s wrist injury that sidelined him for most of the year. If he’s healthy, he’s a very good player on a mediocre team. He’s going to have to hope Curtis Martin stays healthy too; otherwise defenses will tee off on
Jake Plummer – Some people say he’s going to be the MVP. Some say he’s going to be his old, mediocre self. I’m going to stay in the middle and say he’ll have an above average year while not quite taking the league by storm. He’s another QB that will have to rely on the hope of a running game though, meaning he could be hurt a lot by the loss of Clinton Portis
Marc Bulger – How this guy is still not considered a marquis quarterback is beyond me. He puts up the numbers, and although he throws a few more picks than you might like, that’s a result of having the type of receivers the Rams do. When you have two of the fastest guys in the league with two sets of the best hands, you’re going to try and get them the ball as often as possible. Sometimes a defender gets in the way.
Joey Harrington – Hopefully two years with almost no talent around him hasn’t hurt his psyche too much, because Harrington has a chance to have an absolute breakout season. Two of the best young receivers in the league and a great rookie running back (presuming he’s healthy) will allow Harrington to develop into a great all around quarterback. He’s got the talent and the instincts, and now he’s got the personnel. Let’s see what he can do.
Ken Dorsey – Now we’re into the sleepers. Dorsey has never started an NFL game – hell, he’s never even played in an NFL game. But he’s #1 on the depth chart for a team with ZERO expectations. With virtually no pressure, he may be able to surprise some people. Although in that offense…
And if you don’t get a top 10 QB, don’t worry. Doug Flutie will probably be available in your free agent pool after the draft…
Running Backs
This is the category that traditionally dominates fantasy football drafts, and although the QB crop may be a bit thin this year, RB’s are still where the points are at.
And just like Quarterbacks, there is a sharp drop-off between the Marquis names (Holmes, Tomlinson, Portis) and the rest. Here’s my ranking of the rest of the best:
Jamal Lewis – Assuming he stays out of prison he should have another monster season. His trial is unlike the
Shaun Alexander – Just consistently good, if not consistent. He’ll probably have three games of fewer than 50 yards rushing and three more of over 160, but he’ll put up the overall numbers for you all year long. He projects to 14 TD’s but only 1200 yards rushing with another 400 or so receiving. Not stellar numbers, but if they put up points…
Ahman Green – He should be a top tier running back if he could just figure out how to hold onto the damned ball. I’ve had him as my #1 back twice, and both times I traded him mid-season because his fumbles were so frustrating. He’s projecting to about 1860 all-purpose yards (1430 and 430) with 15 TD’s total, meaning he’ll give you some numbers. If he’s available late first round or early second, take the risk.
Steven Davis – Let’s see, a Super Bowl appearance and a breakout “revenge” season, yet he’s still not a top tier back? Tough life this fantasy stuff is.
Fred Taylor – The Semi-Sleeper. Although he’s always put up good numbers, he’s also almost always injured. If he’s healthy, as he was for the last two years, he’s as good as there is in the NFL, and that’s NOT an exaggeration. He’s also as consistent a back as you’re going to find (career rushing average of 4.6 yards per carry, which was also his season average in ‘98, ‘99, ‘02 and ‘03)
The running back situation in
Wide Receivers
Well, it’s simple. If you don’t get one of the 1200+ club (Randy, Marvin, Terrell, Tory, Hines, Chad or Joe), there’s really no difference between what’s left. Those seven guys are the only ones who project to 1200 or more receiving yards in the 2004 season. There are three more who project to over 1150, which is a nice number, but it’s not a top tier.
I’ve always believed that with fantasy football drafts, there’s one simple mantra to use when faced with a tough decision. If player X is a mid-level guy who is going to get a lot of points but not as many as a top-tier guy (Steven Davis for example), but player Y is a top-level guy at a position that doesn’t score as many points in general (say, Chad Johnson), then I would take the top level guy every time, unless I have a serious hole at player A’s position.
So let’s say I am picking toward the end of the snaking rounds, meaning I get two picks close together, then a long time between the next few. I have no running back but I have a marquis QB. Steven Davis and Chad Johnson are on the board. I’m taking
So how does this all relate to the wide receivers in the 2004 fantasy world? There are 25 players projecting to over 1000 yards receiving, and another 16 between 800 and 1000. All of these players will be serviceable receivers, but unless you’re hurting for depth, take someone somewhere else. You’ll always have the chance to fill-in your roster later.
Tight Ends
No, I’m not going to dissect the 2004 Tight End crop, since there are only about four names you need to know. Here’s where that whole “best available player” comes into play. I did a mock draft with a friend of mine the other night (I’ll post the results tomorrow), during which time I had him picking Tony Gonzalez even though he needed a good wide receiver and there were a few available (Chad Johnson, Mason, Coles, etc.) After I told him I though he’d take Tony there if available, he thought for a second then said, “I’d like a receiver. But Tony Gonzalez is Tony Gonzalez.” That’s the best available player theory at its peak.
So with Tight Ends, much like receivers, there are only a few names to worry about. But, unlike receivers, if you don’t get one of the four, you might as well not even field a TE during the season – that’s how severe the drop-off is. Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, and now fellow Miami alum Kellen Winslow Jr. look like they’ll be the only tight ends worth your time this year – you may even want to forego drafting a TE and take an extra WR or RB to use in a preseason trade.
If you don’t get one of the four, don’t worry. You can pretty much plug-in any starting TE from the scrap heap and have a good shot at getting a garbage – time or short yardage TD for that week’s game. Hell, Christian Fauria had 2 total TD’s last year – both against Philly in week two. Guess who picked him up just days before that? (Yes, I forgot to start him…)
I’m not going to analyze the kickers and defenses – you know who to go with. In both situations, unless you get a marquis name to fill in your team, just play the match-ups. If there’s a team defense playing
So good luck in your drafts. I’ll post up my mock draft late tomorrow or Saturday for your use. Well, more for comic relief.
posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM
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