The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

'06 MLB Preview - American League East

American League East

No team in the American League did more spending this off-season in an attempt to scramble to the top of the division that the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto might have spent big dollars to overhaul their roster, but no team in baseball has more of a “new look” than that of the Boston Red Sox. In fact, since they are “my team”, they get their own page in this preview. If I’m going to dedicate 1,100 words to the Sox, I might as well put them on their own page…

Boston (94-68) – Click here for the Red Sox’ preview…

Toronto (91-71) - After tying-up $107 Million in contracts to AJ Burnett, BJ Ryan and Bengie Molina, General Manager JP Riccardi (what’s with all the initials?) was able to swing trades for two of the most coveted corner infielders on the market – Troy Glaus from Arizona and Lyle Overbay from Milwaukee. And they did not lose one player to free-agency, re-signing OF reed Johnson and INF John MacDonald before they could hit the open market.

But Burnett is a career .500 pitcher with a history of arm and attitude troubles. BJ Ryan has only been a closer for one season, and although he was dominant, it was for a 4^th place team with no aspiration of contending. Let’s see how he handles August in a pennant race before anointing him the best closer in the league.

As for the other big acquisitions – Molina was an absolute coup. I had forgotten he was still available when the transaction came across the wire. How he lasted that late into free-agency, I’ll never know. Glaus will either be an absolute masher in Skydome (Oh, sorry – The Rogers Centre), or he’ll be an injury-riddled, overpaid, under-producing “slugger”.

Overbay might turn out to be the best pick-up of the off-season for the Jays. After losing Carlos Delgado to free agency a couple years back, Toronto was forced to try the Eric Hinske experiment as the only power hitter in their lineup in 2005. Hinske is no longer even in the everyday lineup – a huge shift from his Rookie of the Year campaign.

In the end, the most important signing of this off-season for the Blue Jays will probably end up being the re-signing of ace Roy Halladay. He’ll be a Cy Young contender yearly from now through probably 2008, so locking him up before teams like Boston, New York, Atlanta, and that “other” New York had a chance to throw ridiculous dollars at him might be the smartest thing Riccardi has ever done.

Biggest Question(s): Has Halladay completely recovered from the broken leg that ended his 2005 Cy Young campaign? Will Ted Lilly ever become the prototypical left-handed starter that Toronto thought he would be when they got him – the kind of guy that can shut down the power of Boston & New York?

Best possible scenario: First place is certainly not out of the question. No team in baseball has more questions heading into this season than Boston. Toronto could easily jump out of the gates and surprise everybody the same way the White Sox did in 2005. We all saw how well that worked out…

Worst possible scenario: Halladay isn’t healthy, Burnett is the same pitcher he was in Florida, Ryan took the money and suddenly can’t close in the 9th anymore… They’re all possibilities (I’d say Burnett is more likely to happen that the other two). If any of this happens, Toronto will probably be stuck back in the third hole in the rotation. If all of it happens, they might be looking at fourth.

New York (88-74) – Don’t laugh. Seriously. C’mon guys, I’m not kidding here. New York doesn’t look like a 90-win team to me in 2006. And yet, I’ve thought the same thing about the Yankees every season since 2003…

The team is a year older. The rotation, which was falling apart most of last season, is already hurting before this season even opens. The big free agent acquisition, Johnny Damon, has already come out of spring training games with shoulder tendonitis – not a good sign for a guy that has to roam one of the deepest centerfields in the majors.

And for all of that, I still can’t discount the offensive prowess of this team. They have four possible 35-homer guys on the roster, with another four that could hit 20 (Sorry Bernie – you’ll be lucky to see 15). If they don’t score 900 runs this season with that lineup, I’d be stunned.

The rotation is going to be the biggest question this season. The bullpen has always been pretty solid, considering they have the best closer in the game (if not in history) anchoring the back-end. This season, by adding Kyle Farnsworth & Mike Myers, they’ve finally got a solid middle relief corps to get the ball from the starters to Mariano Rivera in the ninth.

Now all they need to do is make sure the starters can get the ball to the middle guys…

Biggest Question(s): Can a team with only one starting fielder and one starting pitcher under the age of 30 (Robinson Cano - 23, Chien-Ming Wang - 25) survive the season? Will any team that starts Alex Rodriguez ever win anything? (Sorry, had to…)

Best possible scenario: Hey, they’re the Yankees. I’d be an idiot to not at least concede the point that they’re never out of the pennant race. They can always easily make a deal to improve an area of need and push for the top of the heap.

Worst possible scenario: The flip side of that coin is that, yes, they’re the Yankees. Sooner or later, teams like Kansas City, Washington, Pittsburgh, etc. are going to get tired of essentially being a farm system for teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Braves. Those trades eventually won’t be there, or will just be too expensive for the “haves” to make. If New York is forced to keep this lineup and rotation all year long, I don’t think they can pull out 90-wins.

Tampa Bay (78-84) - I really hope this is the year that these kids figure it out, because they are fun to watch. I make a point to never miss a Red Sox / Tampa game, because the D-Rays are just a young team that always comes out with guns blazing, never afraid of anybody. Lou Pinella held them back for the past few years, burying players if he didn’t like them, forcing pitchers to retaliate in bean-ball wars, etc.

They dumped four mediocre pitchers in the off-season, including their last two ineffective closers (Danys Baez & Lance Carter) in trades to the Dodgers that netted them some high-profile prospects. They landed Shinji Mori from Japan, and then promptly lost him for the season with a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder. Other than those moves, they basically stood pat this winter.

They have one of the best young outfields in baseball, with Carl Crawford, Aubrey Huff, and the return of Rocco Baldelli, not to mention Joey Gathright as probably the fastest fourth outfielder in the game. He is a big luxury for a team like Tampa – he can be brought in as a pinch runner and still provide an upgraded defense for two of the three kids in the outfield.

The question, as always, lies in the rotation. Scott Kazmir has already moved nicely into the #1 spot in the order (Kazmir for Victor Zambrano… I just can’t get over how terrible of a trade that was for the Mets. Think they’d like to have this kid back right now to slide into the #2 spot behind Pedro?). But after Kazmir, they have four guys that probably wouldn’t crack the major-league rotation for 75% of the other teams around baseball (unless Edwin Jackson takes the #5 spot – then they’ve only got 3 stiffs instead of four). And with the loss of Mori, they are looking at Dan Miceli and Chad Harville splitting time at closer. Ouch.

78 wins might be a little optimistic, but I really like this team. It would be great to have a Red Sox / Devil Rays series after May actually mean something for both teams.

Biggest Question(s): Who starts? Who closes? Essentially, if you have pitches above the little league level, Tampa Bay will take a look at you for a tryout…

Best possible scenario: I think the 78 wins above already is the best possible scenario. Let’s be honest here people – they’re not winning 90, and they’re not passing the Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays in the division.

Worst possible scenario: Back to the basement they fall, if they get nothing from anyone on the mound but Kazmir. Even Baltimore has more to offer than that.

Baltimore (70-92) – They still have Miguel Tejada (for now). They have whatever is left of Javy Lopez. And much to the delight of 14-year old boy in and around the greater Baltimore-Washington region, they now have Anna Benson sitting behind home plate in Camden Yards.

And let’s not forget new first baseman, Kevin Millar. I can’t wait to hear the first radio interview where Millar is asked about Benson. That might redefine uncomfortable comedy as we know it.

The Orioles never really had a chance to re-sign BJ Ryan, so they replaced him with LaTroy Hawkins in a trade with San Francisco. They brought back Jeff Conine, traded for Corey Patterson, and imported Ramon Hernandez to run the young pitching staff - Kris Benson is the “elder statesman” on the staff at the ripe old age of 31. He’s the #4 starter…

The best thing they did in the off-season was to not re-sign Sammy Sosa or Rafael Palmeiro. Those two were more of a distraction than an attraction last season, and contributed very little to any team success.

The rotation is young and improving, with Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Rodrigo Lopez filling in the 1-3 spots in the order. Benson gives them a mid-level veteran to help bring the kids along, and Ramon Hernandez has always been regarded as one of the top three catchers in the game at coaching his pitchers.

They’re too young to really compete this season. They need one more year, and a little more money invested more effectively before they become a threat to the division leaders once again. But it will happen – their young talent is just too good to stay in the basement for long.

Biggest question(s): Got to be the closer spot. When they lost Ryan, they figured Jorge Julio would re-claim the closer position that was his before Ryan emerged. Then they traded Julio for Kris Benson, so they had to get LaTroy Hawkins to close. Ask any Cubs or Twins fan about the LaTroy Hawkins as closer experience…

Best possible scenario: Since they’re in the basement, they’ve got nowhere to go but up. Tampa certainly has questions, mostly about their inexperience and their rotation. Baltimore could easily pass them and slide into the four-spot.

Worst possible scenario: They stay right where they are. Tejada demands to be shipped out of town by mid-season. Javy Lopez is a waste of space, and Anna Benson becomes the most talked about person related to the team.

posted by Big D @ 3:08 PM