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'06 MLB Preview - American League West

American League West

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? The Angels seem to have a stranglehold on this division, winning it in 2004 & 2005, and falling just a few games short in 2002 when they won the Wild Card & World Series, and in 2003 when they missed the playoffs. Oakland looks like they are gearing up with a new “Big Three” – Zito, Harden and either Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, whichever matures quicker. They’ll be very dangerous in a year or two…

Los Angeles Angels (93-69) – They look to be trotting out almost the exact same starting lineup as Opening Day 2005, having made very few acquisitions in the off-season. They did lose three big pieces from their team in Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd and Bengie Molina, all of whom walked in free agency.

The Steve Finley for Edgardo Alfonso swap was pretty useless for both teams, as neither player has much left in the tank. And the only other significant losses from 2005, Lou Merloni, Jeff DaVanon & Josh Paul are all bench players or utility guys. None of them should have an impact.

Picking up J.C. Romero from Minnesota and free agent Jeff Weaver improve an already potent pitching staff. Romero in particular makes the best bullpen in baseball even better. I’ll say it right now – I’d be surprised if there were more than 10 leads blown all season long by this bullpen, 15 at most. They just don’t let people score.

Biggest Question(s): If a Vlad falls in the outfield, and the team has no backup plan, can they still contend for a division title?

Best possible scenario: Vlad stays healthy, Garret Anderson contributes, albeit in an extremely reduced role, and the pitching carries them to another division title and ALCS berth.

Worst possible scenario: Vlad goes down early and/or often, Anderson is forced to play in the field more than he is able to, and the offense struggles so mightily that the Angels lose a lot of 2-1 and 1-0 heartbreakers.

Oakland (91-71) – This team got young in a hurry, didn’t they? Just a year ago, many people around baseball were questioning Billy Bean for breaking up the original Big Three when he sent Tim Hudson to Atlanta and Mark Mulder to St. Louis. Well now with the emergence of Rich Harden and the quick development of fellow young’ins Danny Haren, Joe Blanton & Huston Street, Bean is once again proving that he has one of the best baseball minds out there today.

Surprisingly, for the team that invented the “Moneyball” philosophy, the offense seems to be the shaky side of the team. Eric Chavez, Jason Kendall & Mark Kotsay will all continue to be solid contributors, and if newcomers Frank Thomas and Milton Bradley can stay healthy and not have a psychotic break during the season, I think the A’s could do a lot of damage in this division.

All it will take for them is one major injury or a slow start out of the gates to hold the Angels back, and Oakland could easily vault into that top spot in the A.L. West. Just don’t look for them to do anything in the postseason…

Biggest Question(s): Like many other teams, the A’s have to abandon high-priced free agents and trades and simply go with the homegrown talent and mid-level signings. If the kids can get it done, they can be dangerous. If…

Best possible scenario: As outlined above – if the Angels lose some major players to injury, the A’s will be right there to jump through the open window and reclaim their spot atop the division.

Worst possible scenario: Frank Thomas & Milton Bradley get into a cage match brawl-to-the-death sometime in June and send the entire season down the drain. Seriously though, if those two can keep their heads on straight, and the team can avoid injuries, the A’s will be right there to fight for the division all year long.

Seattle (78-84) – Last year I horribly overrated the signings of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, even going so far as to put Beltre into my top 2 for MVP consideration, ahead of David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez. Yes, I’m an idiot. Luckily for me, the Mariners didn’t go on a spending spree like last year, so I don’t have anyone I can overrate.

They added some nice complimentary pieces in Matt Lawton and Japanese import catcher Kenji Johjima, and if Carl Everett can give them anything out of the DH spot, it’s a plus. Jarrod Washburn’s move from the Angels’ rotation to the Mariners’ not only helps them, but it hurts a division opponent. Plus the hopeful emergence of “King” Felix Hernandez, the young fireballer, should boost their rotation even more.

Seattle didn’t lose too much in their off-season. They allowed Jeff Nelson and Ryan Franklin to walk in free agency, and traded away backup catcher Yorvit Torrealba. Flashy infielder Pokey Reese, who spent all of last season on the DL, went to Florida as a free agent and has since left baseball altogether.

Unfortunately, they are still a team in a bit of disarray, which explains the predicted record and position in the division. They are not better than Anaheim or Oakland, and are about even with Texas. It’s tough to win a 4-team division when two teams are clearly better than you, and no team is really that much worse.

Biggest Question(s): Can they stay healthy and stop striking out? Will King Felix be as good as advertised? Will Ichiro eventually get tired of all the losing and ask out?

Best possible scenario: They stay healthy and stay ahead of Texas, maybe making a push towards the .500 mark.

Worst possible scenario: Beltre & Sexson continue to coast after signing their fat contracts last year, Washburn can’t escape the injuries that have haunted him for years, King Felix is pummeled and sent back to the minors, Jamie Moyer remembers that he’s old enough to have witnessed the Kennedy Assassination…

Texas (70-92) – They seem to be on a continual backslide to the abyss of mediocrity. Unfortunately, they are stuck in the same situation as the Colorado Rockies. They play in a ridiculously hitter-friendly ballpark. Pitchers won’t go there because they don’t want to have their numbers get inflated to the point of killing any future contracts. Good hitters don’t want to go there because they will be accused of being a product of the park (look at Alfonso Soriano). So they are left with mid-level pitchers and mostly average hitters, except those brought up in their own system like Mark Teixeira & Hank Blalock.

They did a great job of getting value for Soriano, arbitration eligible and sure to command far more than they were willing to pay, by getting good all-around player Brad Wilkerson and the young guy, Terrmel Sledge from Washington. They then flipped Sledge and Adrian Gonzalez, a top-tier 1B prospect who would never get to play with Teixeira blocking his path, to San Diego for pitching help in the form of starter Adam Eaton and reliever Akinori Otsuka.

Losing Kenny Rogers could have hurt a lot more if they didn’t pay Kevin Millwood to take his place. Sure, they probably paid $10-15M more than anyone else would have for Millwood, but in order to get a decent pitcher to play in Arlington, the Rangers will always have to overpay them.

Now, if they can only convince Roger Clemens that Arlington is only a short daily commute from Houston…

Biggest Question(s): After Millwood & Eaton, who fills in the rotation? Can Francisco Cordero remain a high-level closer?

Best possible scenario: The offense looks like it will be fine, probably even better than last year. The pitching will always be suspect, but if Kevin Millwood can even approach the year he had in 2005, when he led the A.L. in ERA but only posted nine wins with an awful Cleveland bullpen behind him, the Rangers could threaten the 80-85 win plateau.

Worst possible scenario: Millwood becomes the next Chan Ho Park, the token “pitcher who had a great season while chasing a free agent deal, only to sign for fat dollars in a hitters park and fade off into obscurity,” and the Rangers remain a 70-75 win team.

posted by Big D @ 3:02 PM