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'06 MLB Preview - National League East

National League East

It’s over. The Braves’ decade-and-a-half run of dominance has got to end sometime, right? It’s this year. And, as a Braves fan, it hurts me to admit that the Mets are the team that will end it.

Now, I have plenty of friends who are fans of the Mets. In fact, I’ve even been “asked” by one of them (ahem… Vinny, whose reaction via IM when I told him that I had the Mets winning 93 games was “NOOOOOOOOOOO – I will kill you if you pick them to win the division”) to pick someone else to win the division, since I’m always so horrible with my picks (like picking the Mets & Marlins to finish tied in the division last year – really missed that one…)

Last season, the N.L. East was the “best” division in baseball, as it was the only one with no teams under .500. This season, not so much…

NY Mets (93-69) – They added Carlos Delgado, Paul LoDuca, and Billy Wagner, as well as smaller pieces like Jorge Julio, Xavier Nady, and the ageless wonder himself, Julio Franco. Aside from losing Mike Piazza to the Padres (can it really be called a “loss” if they simply let him walk?), the biggest pieces from the 2005 season that no longer call Shea home are the overpaid Mike Cameron and Kris Benson, and the wildy ineffective and overrated Braden Looper.

Admittedly, there are questions about the rotation, with Pedro Martinez’ injury history and Tom Glavine’s age the only things standing in the way of having Victor Zambrano as the #1 starter. Now that’s a scary thought. But with that offense in place now, this team could probably stand to win a few more 11-9 games than they pulled out (or coughed up) last season.

Moving from defensive specialist (which is a nice way of saying “he couldn’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag”) Doug Mientkiewicz to offensive specialist (which is a nice way of saying “better not make him reach for any throws”) Carlos Delgado should add a couple dozen more runs to the season total at season’s end. The upgrade from Looper to Wagner alone should give help them hold onto 6-10 more wins than last year.

Don’t be surprised to see the Mets go 10-20 games over .500 in their own division this season, especially with the state of the Marlins and Nationals, and all the uncertainty surrounding the Braves and Phillies. Those 10 wins should be enough to wrest the division title away from Atlanta.

Biggest Question(s): Pedro’s toe, Reyes’ legs, Matsui in general.

Best possible scenario: It’s been 20 years since the Mets won a World Series. Right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to at least see them in the NLCS, and maybe all the way to the show.

Worst possible scenario: Pedro shuts it down early (like, May). Glavine calls it a career after an ineffective first half, Beltran proves that last year wasn’t the fluke, and Delgado – a career “small market” guy - can’t adjust to New York, all of it pushing the Mets down to 3^rd in the NL East. Right now, only 2 of those look even remotely plausible (Pedro & Beltran).

Atlanta (88-74) – It isn’t very often that the biggest acquisition or loss for a Major League Baseball team is a bench coach, but in this situation, with the history surrounding this team and its ability to resurrect pitchers, you’ve really got to wonder how big the absence of Leo Mazzone is going to be…

I’ll admit – aside from the Jones’, “E” Renteria, Marcus Giles and Adam Laroche, I had a serious problem trying to name any of the everyday starters on this team. I had to look up “that kid in right field who gets all the big hits and makes great plays…” (Jeff Francoeur), and their left field situation still hasn’t been decided. They’ve got a rookie catcher in Brian McCann who is two-and-a-half years younger than me and has only 183 Major League at-bats to his name.

The rotation still looks good, with Smoltz & Hudson anchoring the top, and a bunch of filler taking up the last three spots. But Chris Reitsma as a closer is just not going to get it done.

So why am I only dropping them two games and one position from their 2005 finish? Simple – have you seen the rest of the division? There’s no way they should lose more than five of 19 against the Marlins, or seven of 19 against the Nats. The Phillies might prove to be a bit more of a challenge, and the Mets look to have surpassed Atlanta, at least on paper.

There’s just something about this franchise that makes me question if they’ll ever lose a division title again. I think this is the year, but it’s going to be close.

Biggest Question(s): The impact of losing Leo Mazzone, who the hell are these guys?

Best possible scenario: The pitchers don’t revert to old bad habits, the kids come through and the veterans do what they’ve done for the last 14 years – win division titles.

Worst possible scenario: Smoltz’ arm fails, Hudson can’t carry the team, Andruw Jones falls off his 2005 career-high pace, and the kids play like kids, pushing the Braves to a 3^rd place finish. Armageddon follows soon thereafter.

Philadelphia (83-79) – Well, they added Tom Gordon…

In all seriousness, Philadelphia had two moderately important acquisitions, and one moderately important loss. Jim Thome, if healthy, is still one of the most dangerous power hitters in the game. Unfortunately, he’s rarely healthy. I was able to steal him in the 14^th round of a fantasy draft last week, and even then I felt like I took him too high.

Tom Gordon will be a relatively effective closer, but is nowhere near the closer that Billy Wagner has been in the past. And although Aaron Rowand is a huge upgrade in centerfield, he just doesn’t fill the offensive gap that the Phillies needed.

Philadelphia still has a few huge offensive holes in their lineup, namely Mike Lieberthal and David Bell. Bobby Abreu can’t be happy with all the off-season trade talk, and might ask out if the team falls out of the race early. Even though last season looked promising (.281/32/117), Pat Burrell is only one year removed from his back-to-back seasons of averaging .231/22/74, and still strikes out at a ridiculous pace (160 in 2005). The lone bright spots might be the kids – Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, both of whom should blossom into NL All-Star candidates in the very near future.

Biggest Question(s): Will they break the all-time record for team strikeouts, who closes games when Gordon goes on the DL?

Best possible scenario: Gordon stays healthy, Abreu is happy and he, Howard & Burrell all hit 25+ HR with over 100RBIs, propelling the Phillies into a tight race for the division title.

Worst possible scenario: Burrell is more the 2003/04 version than the 2005, Howard can’t handle playing first everyday for 162, David Bell & Mike Lieberthal drag the offense into the basement, and take the team’s win/loss record there with them.

Washington D.C. (74-88) – Admit it – you never thought the Ex-Expos could be a.500 team, did you?

I know I certainly didn’t (see last year’s 61-101 prediction). And that’s why I’m predicting a bit of a backslide this year. Not back into Montreal mediocrity, but at least to a level equal to the talent on the team.

For a team hurting in the starting pitching department, losing Esteban Loiaza was actually a pretty big deal. Sure they picked up Brian Lawrence (now out for the season with a shoulder injury), but he was nothing more than a #3 on a team that played in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league out in San Diego. Feliz Rodriguez & Ramon Ortiz, added in free agency, are not exactly the type of pitchers who can really solidify a rotation.

Obviously, all the focus will be on Alfonso Soriano, the major off-season acquisition that cost the Nationals their best all-around offensive player in Brad Wilkerson and a younger guy, Terrmel Sledge, who was pretty sought-after this off-season. Soriano is a strikeout machine who can’t play defense, making $10M this season and already complaining about switching positions heading into free agency. Washington already has one head case in the outfield in Jose Guillen. Adding Soriano (while losing Wilkerson and letting Preston Wilson walk to Houston) just didn’t make any sense to me, and I think it will end up being a bad deal in the long run. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out of D.C. by mid-season.

Biggest Question(s): Who pitches after Livan Hernandez? How long before Soriano and/or Guillen drive manager Frank Robinson (more) crazy?

Best possible scenario: Soriano & Guillen are on their best behavior, the rotation falls into place after Hernandez, and the Nats leapfrog a disappointing Phillies team for 3^rd place.

Worst possible scenario: RFK Stadium explodes while trying to hold the collective egos of Robinson, Guillen & Soriano… in all seriousness, I’m already planning for the worst possible scenario. They shouldn’t have been a .500 team last year (just look at their second half), and they won’t finish anywhere near .500 this year.

Florida Marlins (66-96) – The last time the Marlins held a complete fire sale (after the 1997 World Series title), they finished the 1998 season at 58-104. That team never had a monthly winning percentage above .444 (except March, when they went a stunning 1-0), and even with the sell-off of their high-priced talent, the Opening Day roster still included Cliff Floyd, Gary Sheffield, Charles Johnson, Mark Kotsay and Edgar Renteria (who were still on their rookie contract at $171k and $255k respectively) and Livan Hernandez. And let’s not overlook offensive powerhouse Kevin Millar.

This year’s team bears a lot of resemblance to the Marlins’ team that finished the 1998 season. On Opening Day 2006, they expect to start six different rookies on the field, with another as their #5 starter. Pokey Reese was supposed to be one of the highest paid position players – at $800k. He quit.

I expect absolutely nothing out of this team in 2006. I would not be surprised to see both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera struggle with virtually no support around them (which is why I stayed away from both during my early fantasy drafts). In fact, the only person on this team that might put up reasonable stats is free agent closer Joe Borowski, who should pick up some garbage stats and maybe 25-30 saves on a team that I would be surprised to see win 60 games.

I gave them 66 wins above. I was feeling generous.

Biggest Question(s): Just about everything about the team. Even the “money in the bank” guys like Willis & Cabrera will have a tough season.

Best possible scenario: The kids are so young and green that they don’t realize they’re supposed to be lousy and become one of those first-half surprises that always make April & May fun for baseball fans.

posted by Big D @ 3:01 PM