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'06 MLB Preview - American League Central

American League Central

This was, by far, the closest I came to correctly predicting any division last season. The White Sox were the only team whose record I missed by more than five games (though I did miss it by 17…), and I really thought that Cleveland’s 93 wins would be enough to take the division title. Guess not…

Chicago (97-65) – They are going to field essentially the same team as they did last season, with a slight downgrade in center and a big upgrade at DH. Trading Aaron Rowand, an above average centerfielder and a solid hitter, to Philadelphia for one of the best power hitters in the game (when he’s healthy) is going to be the off-season move that defines this team. Rowand was, by all accounts, a great clubhouse guy. The kid replacing him, rookie Brian Anderson, is just that – a kid. It might take him awhile to mesh with his new teammates.

On the pitching front, the only big move was trading away Orlando Hernandez to Arizona for Javier Vasquez. Like I said in the Diamondbacks’ breakdown, they lost a proven clubhouse presence (as well as the best postseason pitcher they had on their World Series run last season) and got back an overpaid, underachieving pitcher who can either be dominant or useless, depending on the day. Luckily, he’s only going to be the #4 starter on this team, and there won’t be a tremendous amount of production expected from him.

The only real worry for the White Sox could be at closer, where Bobby Jenks has had a rotten spring so far. If that carries over into the regular season, Chicago has to start looking to deal for a closer, and fast.

Biggest Question(s): Closer… will the team get complacent after winning it all last year?

Best possible scenario: Thome & Konerko combine to form the second best 3-4 heart of the order in baseball, right behind Manny & Ortiz wearing those “other” Sox…

Worst possible scenario: Thome doesn’t fully recover from the multitude of injuries that slowed him for his entire time in Philly, Konerko sits back and collects his fat new paychecks, and the rest of the team just tries to coast to back-to-back division titles. If they do, Cleveland will pass them.

Cleveland (94-68) – After a rotten first half of last season, they made a mad dash to get right back into the hunt for the division, before falling flat for the last two weeks of the year. Those types of finishes do one of two things to a young team like Cleveland, either they completely crush the players for a long time, or they inspire the team to come out of the gate hot, so they won’t have to scramble for the final three months of the year just to get close. I’m guessing these guys will follow the latter path.

The Coco Crisp trade with Boston was a steal for the Indians (and I’m saying this as a Red Sox fan…). They shipped out a good centerfielder/leadoff guy in Crisp, plus a backup catcher (Josh Bard) and a average middle relieve in David Riske, and in return they got one of the best prospects in all of baseball (Andy Marte), a solid catching prospect in Kelly Shoppach, and a proven (if injury prone) reliever in Guillermo Mota.

They did lose Kevin Millwood, but replaced him with Paul Byrd & Jason Johnson. If the bullpen can learn to hold a couple of leads this year, there shouldn’t be much of a drop-off between them.

The bullpen is going to be what makes or breaks this team. They’ve got plenty of offense, and the starters that two or three years ago were just young kids breaking in (Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook) now are turning into pretty decent guys in a solid rotation. If they can get through the middle innings, and Bob Wickman can keep racking up 40+ saves, they’ll be right there with Chicago all year long.

Biggest Question(s): Bullpen. If they hold onto leads, this is a dangerous team.

Best possible scenario: Chicago gets lazy and Cleveland just keeps playing solid baseball. They’ve got the talent to take this division, and if the White Sox slip up even once, Cleveland should be able to seize the opportunity.

Worst possible scenario: The bullpen is as bad as it has been in years past, forcing the front office to deal away some young talent to fill in the gaps. And if Chicago plays as well from start to finish as 2005, then Cleveland is just playing for the Wild Card.

Minnesota (84-78) – They’ve officially reached the level they were at in the mid-90’s. They’re not bad enough to get the top draft pick prospects their system is built on, but they’re not good enough to even compete in their own division, let alone in the league. But they do have a pretty good nucleus to work with (Santana, Mauer, Morneau, and new import Luis Castillo).

This off-season, they lost middle-reliever JC Romero in a trade with Anaheim, and free agency claimed Joe Mays (Royals) and Jacque Jones (Cubs). Seeing as how they weren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse last season, I think Romero will be missed more than Jones (although supposedly the kid they got from the Angels, Alexi Cassila, could be in the starting lineup within two years).

Importing former 40-homer guy (honestly, who wasn’t in the last ten years?) Tony Batista shores up the left side of the infield, while Morneau should provide enough power with his tape measure shots to allow Twins fans to overlook his .240 bating average and .310 OBP.

Biggest question(s): After Johan Santana, who is going to pick up the slack in the rotation? Brad Radke might have trouble with the giant fork sticking out of his back, and Carlos Silva/Kyle Lohse/Francisco Liriano don’t exactly strike fear into the heart of opposing lineups…

Best possible scenario: Detroit isn’t as good as I expect them to be, and the Twins can hold onto this third slot in the division.

Worst possible scenario: Pretty simple – Minnesota’s pitching falls apart, Detroit picks up 5-8 cheap wins, and the Twins are left looking up – UP! – at the Tigers…

Detroit (68-94) – For the last two seasons, I kept giving the Tigers a lot more respect than anybody thoughts they deserved, and they just kept proving me right. Let’s see if I ease off the accelerator this season and send them spiraling back into the basement.

Maybe 2006 will be the year that they prove me wrong. Maybe. But c’mon - their biggest off-season acquisitions were Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones. Those weren’t even big name acquisitions in 1996, let alone 2006.

They only had one real big defection – Rondell White moving up in the division to the Twins. Unfortunately, their entire offense consists of nothing more than Dmitri Young and Craig Monroe.

They have three decent young pitchers in Bonderman, Robertson & Verlander. Mike Maroth isn’t bad, but he’s never going to be anything more than a #3 or 4. The rest of their team looks like a bunch of All-Stars and fill-in guys… from 1999.

At this stage, they’re a team without a direction. They can’t blow it all up again and just go young. They can’t afford to shell out major dollars, and even if they could, the last two seasons (when the ownership finally decided to spend money on their baseball team instead of their hockey team) have had pretty weak free agent crops.

They went out and spent big money on free agents last year in Troy Percival and Fernando Vina, among others. Since then, Vina has left for Seattle (after playing all of 29 games as a Tiger, and forcing the team to trade for Placido Polanco), Percival may never pitch again with serious damage in his throwing arm, and the Tigers’ payroll is shot.

And the answer is Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones?

Biggest question(s) – Can the kids handle the pressure? Can the old guys handle the grind?

Best possible scenario - With a little luck and some help from Minnesota, Detroit could feasibly squeak out another 10 wins, especially considering that they get so many games against Kansas City. 10 wins added to Detroit, and maybe a five-game swing from Minnesota, and the Tigers are looking at a legit chance to grab third place. Might not sound like much, but that’s the kind of jump that could prove to next season’s free agents that Detroit is trying to win, not just playing for third.

Worst possible scenario – I don’t much of a chance that Kansas City could pass them in the standings, so I think 4^th place in the worst division in baseball qualifies as just about the worst possible scenario the Tigers could face.

Kansas City (64-98) – This was one of the most free-spending off-seasons in recent memory for the Royals, at least by their standards. They brought in moderately priced free agents like Joe Mays, Reggie Sanders, Doug Mientkiewicz and Mark Grudzielanek, and actually shelled out some decent money for Sanders (2yrs / $10M) and pitcher Scott Elarton (signed from Cleveland for 2yrs / $8M).

And yet, I’d be very, very surprised to see them approach the 70-win mark. They continued to get younger, losing five free agents, all over the age of 30. They now have a starting lineup with four players 28 years old or younger. And admittedly, they are counting on Reggie Sanders to start and play most of the year in the outfield at the age of 38.

They have only one more move that they need to make – they need to move Mike Sweeney. In 2005, the Royals’ entire payroll was just under $37 million, with Mike Sweeney taking up $11M of that (and including Mays’ 2005 salary of $7.25M from Minnesota, instead of the $1M that he’ll make in ’06). Sure, Sweeney is probably their most effective offensive player, but if he could be moved to a contender for a couple of top prospects (or even one top prospect and a couple of mid-level guys), Kansas City would be stupid not to just at the opportunity.

This week’s news that #1 starter Zach Greinke and closer Mike MacDougal probably will have to start the year on the DL is just plain bad luck. But the remaining guys – Elarton, newly acquired mark Redman (via trade with Pittsburgh), Runelvys Hernandez, Joe Mays, and “kid” closer Ambriorix Burgos, should be able to hold the fort until Greinke can get back and re-anchor the top of the rotation.

Overall, things don’t look great in KC. But if the kids live up to their potential, and the veterans have enough left to contribute for the entire season, they’ll have something positive to build on in 2007 and beyond…

Biggest Question(s): How much can the veterans contribute before breaking down? Will the kids like David DeJesus & Mark Teahan be able to step up and handle the majors like the Royals’ front office hopes they can?

Best possible scenario: 70 wins. In a perfect world, Reggie Sanders plays 160 games and plays them well, Doug Mientkiewicz plays stellar defense and actually contributes at the plate, and the pitching comes together with a couple of 14-18 win guys, 70 wins could happen…

Worst possible scenario: You mean a 64-win season isn’t bad enough? Maybe it could get worse – how about a 58-win season? Sure, it could happen – the kids can’t play, Sanders remembers that he’s 38, the pitching falls apart – 50-54 wins wouldn’t be out of the question. Surprisingly, I think this Royals team has more questions surrounding their chances than any other in the American League, except for one…

posted by Big D @ 3:04 PM