Week 8 Recap
Quick thoughts while plotting to kill whoever invented Daylight Savings Time…
n I’ve got a news flash for ya… ready… here it is. I’m a complete idiot. After a weekend spent in New Jersey for a dual Birthday/Halloween party in Hoboken (pictures forthcoming… assuming that someone decides to post them online or sends them to me so I can post them), I returned home at about 1AM due to a ridiculous amount of traffic. Not to mention the fact that I had to blow through a tollbooth on the Garden State Parkway because I didn’t have the $0.25 in coins to pay the toll, and the window for people who only have cash bills was closed. After returning home, I reset my alarm clock for DST, forgetting that I had already set it before I left for New Jersey on Saturday morning. Consequently, I woke up an hour late today. Luckily, I’m the only one in my office until tomorrow. I feel a half-day coming on…
n Great, great weekend all around. Well, not all around. From a “hanging out with friends, drinking all night at the bar and eating copious amounts of pizza and food from the local delis”, it was great. From an “I think I’m starting to get a feel for this football season with my picks” standpoint… not so much.
n How could I forget about the emotional component of the Giants’ week? I mean, they just lost an owner who I’ve recently learned (after listening to WFAN in New York for an entire weekend) was actually a deity dressed in man’s clothing. And somehow I pick them to lose to one of their biggest all-time rivals… at home… in front of 60,000+ rabid New York fans. Hmm… read the “headline” above. I think it sums this up nicely…
n Random “heart attack” moment of the weekend for me: Standing in the bar Saturday night, trying desperately to focus on the ESPN ticker running along the screen during the Michigan game. I was searching for scores on UCLA (-1.5), Tennessee (-8) and TCU (-1). Suddenly, the ticker flashed “Final Score Update”, then showed that UCLA had stormed back to tie their game with Stanford, but had lost 27-24 in Overtime. I was crushed. I had a 10-team teaser that was looking unbelievable up until that point. I ordered another beer and stared blankly at the screen. A minute later, there was a “Sportscenter Update”, showing the end of the UCLA game. When they showed the Bruins scoring the winning touchdown in Overtime, I went ballistic, jumping up and down and cheering for no reason – I think I scared everyone within a 10-foot radius. Of course, Tennessee picked this week to lose their first ever home game to South Carolina, so I went 9-1 on the bet, which is good for nothing more than a “nice try”…
n I liked what I saw from:
o The Giants. Do I really need to explain this one?
o The Panthers. Sure, Culpepper got hurt. But does anyone think he would have been able to salvage that game? Plus, Steve Smith’s “Love Boat” touchdown celebration may have been the greatest TD celebration ever. I Think that has redefined TD celebrations from wide receivers – unless Randy Moss turns the football into a bong in the end-zone, or T.O. holds a live auction for a TD ball after a score, Steve Smith wins the award for “Most hysterical and completely uncalled for celebration of 2005”.
o The guy who ran on to the field at the end of the Packers/Bengals game. And even better than that, the announcer telling up that he thought it was the Burger King taking the ball out of Brett Favre’s hands. I hope the video is on the Internet by now…
o San Francisco. Anyone who can engineer a game winning drive with Cody Pickett under center is deserving of a one-week pass from me. I’ll be gentle, at least until the Giants rip them a new one next Sunday.
o Da Bears. More specifically, Kyle Orton. Happened to be watching the game right as he took a hellacious hit along the sidelines from R.W. McQuarters, and bounced right back up to get in R.W.’s face. At least until he realized that everything was spinning… the look on his face was priceless. If that didn’t at least daze him, he’ll never be dazed in his life.
n I was appalled by:
o Green Bay. I suppose it’s at the point in his career where Brett Favre is due for one of these games every season. But that was simply disturbing. Especially the last play, where he “faked” the clock-stopping spike, then decided to run about 10 yards past the line of scrimmage before attempting his pass. It’s almost like he’s standing there thinking “I’m Brett Favre, damnit. I’ve won a Super Bowl and all kinds of MVPs. I don’t have to worry about the clock, or the penalty I’m about to get called for, or anything. They’ll let it all slide…” Seriously, I can’t imagine what was going through his head.
o Washington. Although, really, they lost that game about six days ago…
o Tampa Bay. Something tells me that Chris Simms is not the QB of the future for the Bucs…
o New England. Yep, you read that right. Having Tedy Bruschi back was nice. But that game was supposed to be a walkover, a tune-up before Indianapolis comes to town next week. I’m calling it right now – if the line opens at anything less than Indy (-6), jump on the Colts. I know that Peyton Manning can’t handle Foxboro, or Belichick, and all of that. But the Patriots looked like a lost team last night. They got lucky with a fumble recovery late in the game, and a pretty generous offensive pass interference call on Eric Moulds to basically seal the deal. Since the NFL is clearly planning for a Manning/Manning Super Bowl (I mean, have you seen Indy’s schedule? Or the fact that the Giants got 9 home games this year?), I wouldn’t expect New England to get too many calls next week…
n Really random thought of the week – is there any holiday better than Halloween until the age of about 30? When you’re young, you get to dress up as your heroes and get free candy for doing nothing more than ringing a doorbell. When you’re a teenager, you get to go out and vandalize the house and property of whoever it is in your town that has been designated “whipping boy” for all of high school. When you get to college, you get to dress up again, but now all the girls dress up in whatever costume will get them free drinks for the night – basically whatever shows off the most skin; I remember in college a girl dressed up in nothing but high heels and a saran-wrap 2-piece bikini – she didn’t pay for a single drink for like a month. And now that I’m out of school, I get to go to bars all night, wearing a Red Sox shirt and cap and calling myself David Wells (although only after 3 different guys told me that I should dump my original idea and just go as Boomer), and stare at women dressed as sexy devils, sexy angels, schoolgirls, cowgirls, pseudo-superheroes, slutty cats, slutty girl scouts, Hooters girls, etc. parade around trying to get someone to buy them free drinks. I mean, I love this time of year! Unfortunately, I’ve only got a few more years before the novelty wears off and I have to take the “grown-up approach” to the holiday, so I’m going to enjoy it while it lasts…
n I’m not sure how to score the Raiders/Titans game in the Win-Loss record. I put the line at Oakland (-4.5) before it was posted, and then took the Titans assuming that it was going to be close (I envisioned a 3 point game, at most). However, the line actually opened at Oakland (-1) and then dropped to Oakland (-0.5). I’m pretty sure I would have taken the Raiders with either of those lines… Aw hell, screw it. It’s a loss.
n 7-5-1 so far, with the Steelers/Ravens game tonight to determine whether I have a winning week, or another average performance. I’m sticking with Pittsburgh (-10.5), even though I know that I have zero chance of being right. As long as they win by 5 or more, I’ll accept the .500-week…
Lata.
NFL Picks - Week 8
NFL Picks – Week 8
So, does this mean that the Cubs will win the 2006 World Series? I mean, we seem to be working our way up in length of time between titles. 86 Years for the Red Sox in 2004, 88 years for the White Sox this year, 2006 would mark 98 years for the Cubs, if they can find a way to pull it off.
Personally, I’ve gotta think that in this current era of teams breaking droughts (didn’t think I was going to use the “C”-word, did you?) to win a title that ends generations of futility, if the Cubs don’t win one soon, they never will.
On a happier note, congratulations to that “other” Chicago baseball team, you know, the new World Series Champion Chicago White Sox. They only lost 1 postseason game (Game 1 of the ALCS vs. the Angels), and their sweep marks 8 straight wins for the American League in the World Series.
And congratulations as well to the Houston Astros. They just keep moving one step closer to that brass ring. Before last year, they’d never won a postseason series. They got to Game 7 of the NLCS. Before this year, they’d never been to a World Series. They won the NLCS and made it to the big show. Maybe next year, they can complete the journey and finish the job. Of course, losing Clemens & Bagwell will be pretty hard to overcome, and I really don’t see much chance of either of them continuing to play after this year.
Sometime next week I’m going to try to post a “Hot-Stove” intro for the 2005/06 off-season, with potential big-name free agents and where I think they’ll end up. And I promise, I won’t have the Red Sox & Yankees signing every available free agent. I don’t think either of them wants Kevin Millar…
Onto this week’s picks. Last week I was 9-4-1, bringing to mind the saying about a visually impaired rodent looking for cashews…
I’m 48-50-4 for the season. This is it – this is the week I inch back over .500 baby!
As always, lines accurate as of 8:15AM today, but today they’re taken from Bodog.com:
Redskins (+2) over GIANTS: Big wins for both of these teams last week. Difference is, Washington was able to downshift at halftime of their game against San Francisco, while New York had to grind out a last second comeback against Denver. The game I equate this to is the San Diego/Pittsburgh game a few weeks back. San Diego had a hugely emotional win the week before, while Pittsburgh came off a bye after a bad loss. Well, Washington basically got a bye last week after a bad loss to KC the week earlier. I think the Redskins take this one, and they have it in hand early.
BENGALS (-9) over Packers: Lots of nine-point or higher lines this week. Scary numbers. Awful high. Don’t like to give out that many points. Unless it’s a matchup like this. The Bengals are pissed about last week’s loss. So are the Packers. The difference is, Cincinnati actually has the team to do something about it.
Bears (+3) over LIONS: As much as I’m not a big fan of taking a rookie QB in a divisional road game, I’m also not too big on relying on the Lions for anything in life. You think anything would be better for Chicago fans than to get a World Series title and have the Bears more or less lock up the division in week 8?
PANTHERS (-8) over Vikings: Another emotional win for a team that has to go on the road and face a team coming off a bye. It’s almost like these things are pre-scripted…
TITANS (+4.5) over Raiders: There’s no line on Bodog right now for this game, so I’m setting it myself. I gotta think that the odds makers will reward Oakland for a big win against Buffalo and penalize Tennessee for the loss to Arizona. At least, that’s what I’m hoping will happen…
COWBOYS (-9) over Cardinals: No reason. I just hate trying to figure out the Cardinals. Plus, I can’t imagine that any Cowboys assistant coach wants to get pummeled on national TV by Bill Parcells again. I’ve got a feeling that Dallas will be firing on all cylinders; Offense, Defense, Special Teams, Waterboys – they’ll all be fired up and ready to go.
Browns (+2) over TEXANS: I will not pick the Texans until they either A) Win a game or B) Have another +14 line. I will NEVER pick them if they are favored. At least not this season. Let’s just assume that if the line is anything lower than Texans (+13), I’m taking the other team. It’ll be a law for the rest of 2005, and it’ll allow me to just refer to this post from now on in all Houston games.
Dolphins (+2) over SAINTS: Hmmm… Ricky Williams returning to the team that drafted him and then unceremoniously dealt him for pennies on the dollar. I’d like to think that he’d be all fired up for this game (no pun intended), but since I’m starting Ronnie Brown in the big fantasy league, I’ve got to hope Ricky doesn’t hold a grudge…
Jaguars (+4) over RAMS: Another game with no firm line posted due to injuries, but c’mon – is there any way that the Rams should be favored in this one? Jamie Martin doesn’t exactly instill confidence in the gambling man… not that Fred Taylor does either.
CHARGERS (-6) over Chiefs: OK, there’s a 50.5 Over/Under on this game. I’d be stunned if the combined score didn’t hit 70. More importantly, is it just me, or does this game scream “Teaser! Make me a Pick ‘em!” Yes, that’s what I’m recommending. Also, there’s about a 60/40 shot that I spend too much time thinking about football…
49ERS (+11.5) over Bucs: This line got pulled from Bodog after the announcement that Alex Smith has a sprained knee. No matter – he wasn’t going to run much against Tampa anyway. Again, if you get the chance to tease this up to a +17.5 line, it’s a much better option. The Niners could keep this close, especially if Cadillac’s still sidelined and the Bucs have to rely on – gasp! – Chris Simms…
BRONCOS (-3.5) over Eagles: I don’t like this game one bit. Broncos coming off a tough loss, Eagles coming off an underserved win. I suppose in this situation I’m more inclined to take the home team, but still, I’m not 100% confident in the line. Push it to Broncos (+2.5) and maybe we’ve got a deal…
PATRIOTS (-9) over Bills: Now this one I’m a bit more confident in. Pats, coming off a bye week, have had two weeks to prepare for Kelly Holcomb and Willis McGahee. More importantly, if Tedy Bruschi steps onto that field, he’s worth 3-6 points in the game by himself.
STEELERS (-10.5) over Ravens: If nothing else, this pick ought to show you just what I think about Anthony Wright and his abilities on the road against a halfway decent defense. Pittsburgh is going to make his life hell, and more importantly, they’ll clamp down on the running game and force Wright to beat them. Anyone that thinks he’s got a shot to do that, raise your hand…
Recap: Redskins / BENGALS / Bears / PANTHERS / TITANS / COWBOYS / Browns / Dolphins / Jaguars / CHARGERS / 49ERS / BRONCOS / PATRIOTS / STEELERS
Oooh, finally – a nice mix of home teams (9) and away teams (5). You know what this means…
0-14 week, here I come!
Lata.
Week 7 Recap
Quick thoughts while recovering from the worst stretch of luck in my life…
n Holy crap. Scott Podsednik – this year’s token “Guy who had one big play and therefore gets the World Series MVP even though there are about five guys who were a lot better but they didn’t have their one shining moment that everyone will remember ten years from now”. Following last year’s winner, Manny Ramirez, who won the MVP even though there was no doubt that Keith Foulke deserved it, if the White Sox go on to win this series (which seems almost inevitable now – the momentum is on Chicago’s side, the Astros don’t have Clemens or Pettite for awhile, and they’re in a 0-2 hole), Podsednik will probably get the MVP is he does nothing more all series than hit .250 with a couple of steals and maybe one exceptional defensive play.
n So… how bad was my weekend? Well, between the wisdom teeth that are cutting through my head again, some horrific luck at a poker tournament Friday, the inability to accomplish even a simple task like getting a haircut Saturday, the car accident that has left my car with about $1200 in damage that I have to pay out of pocket, the excessive drinking that left me with no memory of the night after about 12AM on Saturday, and then the fact that although I went 9-3-1 yesterday in football games, the 3 losses (Seattle, Cincinnati and Houston) were parlayed into every single bet except for one. Let’s go Jets (+13) tonight baby – I need to fix my car!
n Wow – Drew Bledsoe made a critical mistake in judgment late in the fourth quarter of a completely winnable game that ended up costing his team at least a legitimate shot at an overtime win. Personally, I’m stunned. I never saw this one coming…
n When I saw that Seattle interception, I went absolutely nutty in my house. I was praying for a miracle TD by the Seahawks in overtime to cover the –3.5 line, but I would have taken a miracle interception return for a TD in regulation to cover that –3.5. Naturally, Jordan Babbineaux decided to return the ball to the 33 and run out of bounds to set up the game winning field goal.
n Although, the Seattle win wasn’t nearly as damaging to Dallas’ collective psyche as the Chargers’ loss to Philadelphia. I mean, how does a team recover from a loss like that? Their defense held Philly to only 7 points in the first half, and they were going for a field goal to essentially ice the game with just over two minutes in the game. Talk about a reversal of fortune…
n I was impressed with:
o The Giants. Helluva gritty comeback in that game. And, even better, they simply kicked the extra point to win the game by one point, preserving a +2 cover for the Broncos (and myself). And, even more impressive after last week’s ugly loss in Dallas.
o The Vikings. And I can’t believe I’m going to compliment this team. But after all they’ve put themselves through this year (ticket scalping, The Original Whizzinator, and now The Love Boat), was there any team in the NFL that needed a win this week more than them?
o The Chargers. Aside from one blown blocking assignment, they were balanced all day long. In the first half, when the offense couldn’t do anything, the defense wouldn’t allow Philly to get it don either. In the second half, with the defense still holding Philly down, the Chargers’ offense awakened for 17 straight points. Tough loss to take, now the fourth loss on the season, all by 4 points or less.
o The Raiders. With all the talk surrounding Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan and Oakland’s running game became the fourth straight team to dismantle Buffalo’s run defense. How important is Takeo Spikes? Well, in the four weeks since he went down for the year with an injury, the Bills have allowed 122 rushing yards to Jordan, 148 to Curtis Martin, 97 to Ronnie Brown and 130 to Deuce McAllister. Linebackers with Spikes’ ability don’t come along very often – he’s a huge loss.
o The Steelers. Now that’s a statement win. Let’s see how the Bengals respond next week…
o The Rams. No Marc Bulger, no Torry Holt, no Issac Bruce, no Leonard Little, oh, and no Mike Martz at Head Coach? Eh, no problem. St. Louis still found a way to win, controversial or not.
n I was appalled by:
o San Francisco. Is this really the team that upset the Rams in Week 1? Are they just playing out the string for a shot at Reggie Bush #2 overall in the draft? I think Houston’s got a stranglehold on the #1 pick…
o Dallas. Forget the interception itself… why are you even throwing anything that isn’t directly on the sidelines in that situation? There’s 15 seconds left, you have no timeouts, and you call a pass play that, even if caught, is probably going to run out the clock anyway? Geez, might as well just take a knee, go to OT, and take your chances there.
o The entire Ravens/Bears game. Gotta love those 10-6 barnburners… (Actually, I’m more appalled by the fact that I wasn’t allowed to parlay the Under in that game into my bets this week…)
o Indianapolis. No reason that game should have been that close at the half. Nice job of pulling away when it didn’t matter, but 14-14 at the half is completely inexcusable when you’re playing a team like Houston. Besides, if they’d been up by 10 at the half and 17 after the third, they would/could have coasted in the 4th, allowing Houston to cover the +16 line…
o My Fantasy Football personnel decisions. For the better part of the year, I’ve left my team alone, only having to shift players during bye weeks. This week, I lost Marc Bulger and my backup QB, Byron Leftwich, was on a bye. I picked up Josh McCown & Kelly Holcomb, choosing to drop the Browns defense in the process. I started McCown, the Bills defense, and Curtis Martin instead of Holcomb, Cleveland, and Ronnie Brown. Net result? Well, I need Curtis to go for 160 yards and 3 TDs tonight to stay undefeated, which considering the state of Atlanta’s defense, is not out of the question…
I’m sticking by my Jets (+7) pick for tonight, although with the teaser that I still have alive, I’m actually rooting for Jets (+13). Like I said above – I need to fix my car!
Lata.
Week 7 Recap
Quick thoughts while recovering from the worst stretch of luck in my life…
n Holy crap. Scott Podsednik – this year’s token “Guy who had one big play and therefore gets the World Series MVP even though there are about five guys who were a lot better but they didn’t have their one shining moment that everyone will remember ten years from now”. Following last year’s winner, Manny Ramirez, who won the MVP even though there was no doubt that Keith Foulke deserved it, if the White Sox go on to win this series (which seems almost inevitable now – the momentum is on Chicago’s side, the Astros don’t have Clemens or Pettite for awhile, and they’re in a 0-2 hole), Podsednik will probably get the MVP is he does nothing more all series than hit .250 with a couple of steals and maybe one exceptional defensive play.
n So… how bad was my weekend? Well, between the wisdom teeth that are cutting through my head again, some horrific luck at a poker tournament Friday, the inability to accomplish even a simple task like getting a haircut Saturday, the car accident that has left my car with about $1200 in damage that I have to pay out of pocket, the excessive drinking that left me with no memory of the night after about 12AM on Saturday, and then the fact that although I went 9-3-1 yesterday in football games, the 3 losses (Seattle, Cincinnati and Houston) were parlayed into every single bet except for one. Let’s go Jets (+13) tonight baby – I need to fix my car!
n Wow – Drew Bledsoe made a critical mistake in judgment late in the fourth quarter of a completely winnable game that ended up costing his team at least a legitimate shot at an overtime win. Personally, I’m stunned. I never saw this one coming…
n When I saw that Seattle interception, I went absolutely nutty in my house. I was praying for a miracle TD by the Seahawks in overtime to cover the –3.5 line, but I would have taken a miracle interception return for a TD in regulation to cover that –3.5. Naturally, Jordan Babbineaux decided to return the ball to the 33 and run out of bounds to set up the game winning field goal.
n Although, the Seattle win wasn’t nearly as damaging to Dallas’ collective psyche as the Chargers’ loss to Philadelphia. I mean, how does a team recover from a loss like that? Their defense held Philly to only 7 points in the first half, and they were going for a field goal to essentially ice the game with just over two minutes in the game. Talk about a reversal of fortune…
n I was impressed with:
o The Giants. Helluva gritty comeback in that game. And, even better, they simply kicked the extra point to win the game by one point, preserving a +2 cover for the Broncos (and myself). And, even more impressive after last week’s ugly loss in Dallas.
o The Vikings. And I can’t believe I’m going to compliment this team. But after all they’ve put themselves through this year (ticket scalping, The Original Whizzinator, and now The Love Boat), was there any team in the NFL that needed a win this week more than them?
o The Chargers. Aside from one blown blocking assignment, they were balanced all day long. In the first half, when the offense couldn’t do anything, the defense wouldn’t allow Philly to get it don either. In the second half, with the defense still holding Philly down, the Chargers’ offense awakened for 17 straight points. Tough loss to take, now the fourth loss on the season, all by 4 points or less.
o The Raiders. With all the talk surrounding Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan and Oakland’s running game became the fourth straight team to dismantle Buffalo’s run defense. How important is Takeo Spikes? Well, in the four weeks since he went down for the year with an injury, the Bills have allowed 122 rushing yards to Jordan, 148 to Curtis Martin, 97 to Ronnie Brown and 130 to Deuce McAllister. Linebackers with Spikes’ ability don’t come along very often – he’s a huge loss.
o The Steelers. Now that’s a statement win. Let’s see how the Bengals respond next week…
o The Rams. No Marc Bulger, no Torry Holt, no Issac Bruce, no Leonard Little, oh, and no Mike Martz at Head Coach? Eh, no problem. St. Louis still found a way to win, controversial or not.
n I was appalled by:
o San Francisco. Is this really the team that upset the Rams in Week 1? Are they just playing out the string for a shot at Reggie Bush #2 overall in the draft? I think Houston’s got a stranglehold on the #1 pick…
o Dallas. Forget the interception itself… why are you even throwing anything that isn’t directly on the sidelines in that situation? There’s 15 seconds left, you have no timeouts, and you call a pass play that, even if caught, is probably going to run out the clock anyway? Geez, might as well just take a knee, go to OT, and take your chances there.
o The entire Ravens/Bears game. Gotta love those 10-6 barnburners… (Actually, I’m more appalled by the fact that I wasn’t allowed to parlay the Under in that game into my bets this week…)
o Indianapolis. No reason that game should have been that close at the half. Nice job of pulling away when it didn’t matter, but 14-14 at the half is completely inexcusable when you’re playing a team like Houston. Besides, if they’d been up by 10 at the half and 17 after the third, they would/could have coasted in the 4th, allowing Houston to cover the +16 line…
o My Fantasy Football personnel decisions. For the better part of the year, I’ve left my team alone, only having to shift players during bye weeks. This week, I lost Marc Bulger and my backup QB, Byron Leftwich, was on a bye. I picked up Josh McCown & Kelly Holcomb, choosing to drop the Browns defense in the process. I started McCown, the Bills defense, and Curtis Martin instead of Holcomb, Cleveland, and Ronnie Brown. Net result? Well, I need Curtis to go for 160 yards and 3 TDs tonight to stay undefeated, which considering the state of Atlanta’s defense, is not out of the question…
I’m sticking by my Jets (+7) pick for tonight, although with the teaser that I still have alive, I’m actually rooting for Jets (+13). Like I said above – I need to fix my car!
Lata.
NFL Week 7 Picks
Week 7 Picks
So... apparently there's still baseball being played? Sorry, I wasn't really aware of this. I've had a ridiculous week, between the dam in my city being on the edge of bursting, some 12-hour work days, and my appearance on the WSOP that never happened (though I haven't given up hope yet - I think I may be edited in to a feature with Phil Ivey later in the series. I mean, they can't discuss his Main Event without talking about how I took over half of his chips on Day One...).
But lo and behold, I turned on Fox the other night and, WOW! Baseball! I could’ve sworn the season ended a couple of weeks ago when Edgar Renteria grounded out, but I guess the playoffs continue, whether the Red Sox are involved or not.
In all truthfulness, I’ve been following the playoffs pretty religiously. The minute the Red Sox were eliminated, I became an Astros fan, if only for two weeks. I’ve always liked Roger Clemens, even if I haven’t always respected him. And guys like Bagwell and Biggio, I mean, how can you not be rooting for these guys?
So when the World Series opens tomorrow night in Chicago for the first time in 46 years, and an Astro steps into a World Series batter’s box for the first time ever, I’ll be watching.
OK, enough of that “good writing” crap. Onto this week’s picks. 6-7-1 last week (I’m taking credit for a push on the JAX/Pittsburgh game, since I correctly accounted for the injury report and subsequent shift to Jacksonville (-6) without Roethlisberger), putting me at 39-46-3 for the year. And I wonder why I’m not making any money…
Lines from ESPN.com’s Daily Line as of 8:30AM today. Home teams in CAPS.
Chiefs (+1) over DOLPHINS (game moved to Friday Night): Right off the bat, this game isn’t listed on ESPN.com’s Daily Lines. I got this from Bodog last night, as I was dumping everything I could get onto the Chiefs and parlaying them into about 17 different bets. As is the case with teams dealing with impending disasters (or recovering from them – see: New Orleans Saints), the teams usually have other things on their minds. The Chiefs have nothing to think about except crawling back towards the top of the AFC West. Chiefs – big.
VIKINGS (+2) over Packers: I really don’t want anything to do with this game. The Packers stink. The Vikings stink. Combined, they both suck. The Packers have an offense but no defense; the Vikings have a defense but no offense. Really – I just don’t know. And in situations like that, I’ll take a home underdog 99 times out of 100.
Chargers (+4) over EAGLES: Now this game, I’ve got a pretty good idea about. Although Philly’s coming off a bye week, they still have that little running-game issue to discuss. The Chargers are one of the best teams against the run this year. I think San Diego controls the clock, and in doing so, controls the game. It’s close, but unless Tomlinson gets hurt, the Chargers take it.
RAMS (-3) over Saints: I have no faith in New Orleans. Even though they were able to keep it close against Atlanta last week, they’re still not a very good team. St. Louis, without Marc Bulger, is mediocre at best. But do you trust a Saints team that has to rely on Aaron Brooks and Antowain Smith to get it done on offense? By the way; the Over/Under in this game is 47.5. Last week, the Rams allowed 45 and the Saints allowed 34. Which side of that O/U do you think I’ll be on?
REDSKINS (-13) over 49ers: I’m convinced, I’m just one year early with all of my predictions. This could be the year that Washington is resurrected. This could be the year that Joe Gibbs truly announces his return to the NFL. And this will be the week the ‘Skins blow out the 49ers.
TEXANS (+16) over Colts: While doing some research on this pick (hold for laughter), I noticed a disturbing trend with Indy – they’re the USC of the NFL. They keep getting off to slow starts, only holding a halftime lead of more than 7 points twice this season (Week 4 vs. Tennessee & Week 5 @SF). They’ve trailed at the half twice (Baltimore & St. Louis), and they were tied at zero vs. Jacksonville. They’re a second half team. In fact, they’ve only scored 21 first quarter points all season. So sure, they’re 6-0, and all of the wins are by 7 or more points (and the last three wins are by 21, 25, and 17). But I just think that this week, playing a weak opponent on the road, with the bye week and then a trip to Foxboro looming on the horizon, I mean, isn’t that the definition of a trap game? I don’t think Indy will really give a full effort, resting players (especially on defense) once they’ve got a decent lead. Colts win, but not by more than 14.
BENGALS (-1) over Steelers: OK, sorry for making you read all of that just to get a pick. Back to the short answers. Ready? The Steelers are hurt (Ben’s knee can’t be 100% yet, Ward is still sore). The Bengals are healthy (except for T.J. Houfsdhjlwrthuifdsnldeh). It’s in Cincinnati, and it’s a 1-point line for a reason. This will be a tough, physical game. The kind that the Bengals usually lose (see: Jacksonville and Chad Johnson’s temper-tantrum). But not this week.
BROWNS (-3) over Lions: Is the Joey Harrington experience (or is it experiment?) over yet? Can we get a definitive answer on this? Assuming Jeff Garcia isn’t on crutches, he needs to start this game. Trouble is, the Lions still don’t have enough weapons for him to be effective.
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cowboys: It’s just about this time every season where I fall into the “Maybe the Seahawks really have it all put together this season” trap. Soon thereafter, they start doing everything possible to drive me crazy – dropping passes, getting into fights that land players in intensive care, you know, stuff like that. But for as much respect as I gave the Cowboys in the pre-season, I think that the loss of Flozell Adams is bigger than anyone imagines. Drew Bledsoe needs a strong offensive line to be effective, and that just opened up a gaping 340-pound hole…
CARDINALS (-4) over Titans: You have no idea how much I wish Dennis Green would name a starting QB before I commit fully to this pick. Kurt Warner under center would have me dumping money on Tennessee like water on a fire. But with Josh McCown as the starter, I’ve got a little more confidence in Arizona. Pac-Man Jones got burned by Chad Johnson last week – how will he respond to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald? It’ll be an ugly game, but Arizona takes it.
Broncos (+2) over GIANTS: If you thought New England’s secondary looked bad against the Broncos’ deep passing game, wait until you see New York. That’s all you need to know.
RAIDERS (-3) over Bills: Losing Randy Moss is a big blow, but is shouldn’t be enough to keep the Raiders from getting win #2 of the season. Look for Lamont Jordan to have a big game (naturally, since I have to play against him and LT in the big fantasy league this week).
BEARS (-1) over Ravens: Anthony Wright on the road, or Kyle Orton at home? Enough said. Actually, let me add this little rant, which has nothing to do with the game. You know that new Budweiser ad campaign, the “This is Budweiser, this is beer” jingle? Yeah, me too. Let me say this – if there were no repercussions, and the technology were available, I would go back in time with a copy of that jingle and play it over and over and over for the guy who wrote it, just so he could feel the torture that I’ve been going through this season. I’ve actually found myself driving in the car and suddenly breaking into “This is BEER!” God I hate that man…
Jets (+7) over FALCONS: Michael Vick will find a way to keep the Jets in this game. Plus, Curtis Martin should have another 100+ yard game this week, judging by how depleted Atlanta’s defense is.
Recap: Chiefs / VIKINGS / Chargers / RAMS / REDSKINS / TEXANS / BENGALS / BROWNS / SEAHAWKS / CARDINALS / Broncos / RAIDERS / BEARS / Jets
Geez, last week I only had three home teams, this week only four road teams. I can’t get a consistent feel for this season, at all.
Finally, a Link of the Week:
So, my friend Tex likes to proclaim that he is a lifelong Astros fan, since he comes from Austin, and is closer to Houston that the Rangers in Arlington. After Lance Berkman’s 7th inning homerun in Game 5 of the NLCS, I sent him and Instant Message that read, simply “Welcome to the World Series”. Oops.
But after the Astros finally clinched their World Series berth, Tex celebrated by posting an away message for the entire world to see (and mock). You can see it here, along with my response.
I’ll leave you with that.
Until next week, lata.
Week 6 Recap
Quick thoughts while recovering from the best football
weekend of the last decade…
n After watching most of Wisconsin/Minnesota and both the PSU/Michigan and the USC/Notre Dame instant classics on Saturday, I didn’t think that Sunday could even hope to compete. I was wrong. Great endings in Detroit, San Antonio and Dallas, and great comebacks by the Bengals and (almost) Patriots. What a great weekend.
n You could cut the gambling tension at my place with a knife last night. Between the weekly poker game, plus me rooting for the Patriots to score another TD and cover the +3 line and my buddy cheering against the Patriots scoring to preserve his Under 48.5 bet… I mean, it doesn’t get much better than that.
n Sickening loss for the Giants yesterday. Dallas tried to give them that game in the first half, and the Giants couldn’t do anything with it. Coughing it up on the one-yard line just summed up that game for New York. Always close, never quite enough. I had no doubt that Dallas would win the coin toss and the game in OT – the Giants just didn’t have luck on their side yesterday.
n Speaking of wacky endings… here’s a question for you. In PSU/Michigan, the wolverines scored with no time left on the clock to take a 2-point lead. Why weren’t they forced to attempt the extra point? I understand that the crowd rushed the field, but the same thing happened in USC/Notre Dame, and the refs cleared the field for the final play. If Michigan flubs the snap or PSU blocks the kick, the ball could have been returned for a game-tying safety, so why wasn’t Michigan forced to at least take the extra point snap and fall on it? Just wondering…
n I was impressed by:
o Seattle. Maybe they’re not as bad as I thought…
o Chicago (Bears). In that division, 8-8 is probably a 2-game lead after week 17… They’ve got as good a shot as anyone.
o Chicago (White Sox). Everyone will point to the Doug Eddings debacle, but the White Sox pitching was just far too dominant for the Angels. I don’t doubt that the Sox could have gone into Anaheim down 2-0 and still taken three straight to bring it back to Chicago to clinch in six rather than five. Congrats on the win – now just watch out for those Astros…
o New England. Down 28-3 mid-way through the 3rd quarter, and they still manage to make a game of it. Just shot themselves in the foot (again) with bad penalties late in the game. Plus that unmerciful Denver blitz might have played a small part in it…
o Washington. They dominated every aspect of that game except the turnover battle and the final score – the two most important stats. Tough loss to take.
o Buffalo. Who is this Kelly Holcomb guy? Why did Cleveland let him walk In favor of Trent Dilfer?
o Cincinnati. Great win for the Bengals. What’s even better was that my Thursday prediction for Chad Johnson of 9 catches, 135 yards and 2 TD’s in a 31-10 Cincy win wasn’t all that far off (8 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD in a 31-23 Cincy win).
n I was appalled by:
o The Giants. I said it above, but I’ll say it again – they missed every gift-wrapped opportunity in that game. You get that many turnovers, on the road, and convert them into 6 total points? You deserve to lose that game.
o The Vikings. Not that they really needed a reason to have a bad week, but that was one heck of an ugly loss. And I don’t want to hear that they were distracted – they brought those distractions upon themselves.
o John Fox. Let me set the situation – The Panthers are down by 3 with about 6 minutes in the game. The have 4th and 1 on the Lions’ 4 yard line. Automatic field goal call from the head coach, no? No. They go for it. And miss. The Lions march almost 90 yards the other way and kick a field goal to take a 6-point lead. Now, if the Panthers hadn’t come back to win on a last second TD and extra point, John Fox would be the goat of the week. But Carolina got the win, and got the hell out of Detroit.
o Bill Romanowski. Following in the great tradition of Jose Canseco, Romo wrote his own “tell-all” book about himself and his career, even going on 60 minutes just like Canseco to pimp his work. Trouble is, Romo didn’t tell us anything. Everyone knew he was a dirty player. Everyone suspected that he was juicing. Give us some new info, or else just fade off into retirement oblivion.
n Good luck Tedy Bruschi. God knows the Patriots could use you, but don’t come back just because the team is in trouble. The last thing any of us wants to see is #54 sprawled out on the field for any reason. He doesn’t owe New England fans a damned thing. I hope he realized that before he straps on the helmet and pads one more time…
n I’m sticking with my pick of Rams (+14) tonight. And I’m taking the over (51.5), simply because if Indy doesn’t put up 45+ tonight, they won’t do it this year. I’m also going to go way out on a limb and say that, although I’m down by quite a few points in fantasy football (Thank you, Shaun Alexander), I’ve got a good chance with Marc Bulger, Edgerrin James and Brandon Stokley all going tonight. The Kids’ Table with rise again!
Quote of the Week:
From WEEI’s “Dennis & Callahan” morning show today. During their weekly conversation with Tom Brady, the following exchange took place:
John Dennis: “Tom, can you put into words what it will mean to have Tedy Bruschi back in uniform for your team, and more importantly, do you think it’s the right decision?”
Tom Brady: “Tedy’s coming back? I hadn’t heard…”
Don’t forget – ESPN’s final day of coverage of the WSOP Main Event, Day One is tomorrow at 8PM. Take a look – maybe I’ll be there, maybe I won’t. But you’re guaranteed to see Phil Ivey, so there’s a pretty decent shot I’ll be there, in the background, waaaaaay up in the top left corner, with my back to the camera. I’ll be the big guy in a white shirt and khaki’s, looking depressed as hell at the short chip stack in front of him.
Lata.
NFL Picks - Week 6
NFL Picks – Week 6
Hmmm. Week six. It’s amazing, when you think about it, that five weeks of the NFL season have already passed. Leaves are changing, linemen are breaking down, the cycle continues…
6-7-1 last week, 33-39-2 on the still young season. I’m just waiting for one of my patented 12-2 weeks to pull out of this mini tailspin.
Of course, I fully expect that week to come when I have don’t have enough in the old checking account to put anything on the games. Like this week…
All lines accurate as of 8AM Thursday, from ESPN.com via SportsInteraction.com:
Falcons (-5.5) over SAINTS: This game is going to get ugly, and quick. If Mike Vick is out, expect Matt Schaub to stand in the pocket and absolutely pick apart the Saints’ defense. If Vick plays, expect him to run for about 125 and a touchdown, but the game will be much, much closer.
STEELERS (-3) over Jaguars: Although, honestly, it should read something like this:
STEELERS w/Big Ben (-3) over Jaguars
Jaguars (-6) over STEELERS w/o Big Ben
Dolphins (+4.5) over TAMPA BAY: Another game where the injury report will determine the outcome. With Cadillac, Tampa probably wins (but it stays close). Without him, the Dolphins win outright. The bigger story, though, is the return of Ricky Williams and his effect on the Dolphins’ running game. Personally, I’m benching Ronnie Brown.
Browns (+5.5) over RAVENS: Is this really the same Ravens team that I picked to win the division and advance all the way to the AFC Title game? See kids, let this be a lesson to you – don’t write drunk. And don’t EVER bet on Anthony Wright and/or Kyle Boller. Not that I’m real happy about having to rely on Trent Dilfer…
BEARS (-3) over Vikings: Hold on a second. The Vikings were involved in two of the biggest off-season stories this year – the Randy Moss trade and the Mike Tice ticket-scalping debacle. Now, they book a cruise boat, hire strippers and possibly hookers, in their own names no less, and wonder why their season is in the toilet? This is not a healthy way to spend a bye week. Why not try to figure out where your offense went? Gawwwd – do I even have to explain why I’m picking against them now, and probably forever…?
Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS: Giants coming off a bye week, with two full weeks to prep for the Cowboys… Dallas coming off a hugely emotional win over the Eagles that involved a mini blow-up between star QB and star WR… Aside from the in-fighting, this sounds strangely like the Pittsburgh/San Diego game from last Monday Night…
Panthers (+1) over LIONS: I have absolutely zero respect for the NFC North leading Lions. They haven’t got a good win yet. They are missing two of their top three receivers. Joey Harrington is still Joey Harrington. Carolina, although erratic, should still be able to take this game.
Bengals (-3) over TITANS: I think Chad Johnson might have taken last weeks’ loss just a little bit too hard. I also think that he’s going to have to have a monster game this week in order to regain a little of his street cred after breaking down in tears following the three-point Sunday Night loss to Jacksonville. I’ll pencil him in for 9 catches, 135 yards and 2 TD’s, and pencil the Bengals in for a 31-10 blow-out…
Redskins (+5.5) over CHIEFS: I learned my lesson – if nothing else, the Redskins are going to keep every game close. By the way – I think that Washington proved more to me by coming back in a loss on Sunday that they had in their three previous wins by a combined six points. In fact, they’ve played four games that have been decided by eight total points. That alone should tell you that if you see a line involving Washington above about 3.5, jump on it…
Chargers (-2.5) over RAIDERS: Nope, Oakland’s not getting win #2 this week… More importantly, did you realize that Kerry Collins has yet to throw an INT? Who predicted that one? (Put your hands down – NO ONE saw this coming…)
Patriots (+3) over BRONCOS: Four weeks ago, people in New England were saying that if the Pats came out of this stretch at .500, it would be a victory. Now there’s a chance that they could come out of it at 4-2, which would be a major coup. Think about it: Five games, @Carolina, @Pittsburgh, vs. San Diego, @ Atlanta, and now @Denver. That’s ridiculous. With a bye next week and a relatively easy schedule in the second half of the season, a win this week would lead a lot of people to believe that a 14-2 season is not out of the question…
Jets (+3) over BILLS: It wasn’t pretty, but the J-E-T-S eeked one out last week. More importantly, expect Curtis Martin to have a big, big day against a porous Bills’ defensive line. They allowed another 100-yard rusher last week in Ronnie Brown, and if not for a late-game fumble, probably would have had to go to overtime to get that win. In this battle of over-rated, journeyman backup QB’s, I’m taking the one with more experience, a better arm, and a better supporting cast.
SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over Texans: Here’s the thing – Seattle’s not that good. But if they keep getting to play teams with no defense and even less offense (Houston, Arizona twice, San Francisco twice), they’re going to back-in to a Wild Card spot. In fact, if St. Louis doesn’t find a way to stop them in their next meeting, Seattle’s going to be the crappiest division winner in the NFL since, well, last year’s Seahawks…
Rams (+13.5) over COLTS: I just don’t like give up 14 points to a team with an offense as good as the Rams’. For as much as I can respect the Colts this year, I just can’t get over the fact that, at any given time, they could revert back to the Colts of old. This is Indy’s first real test of the season – let’s see how they react.
Recap: Falcons / STEELERS / Dolphins / Browns / BEARS / Giants / Panthers / Bengals / Redskins / Chargers / Patriots / Jets / SEAHAWKS / Rams
Aw crap. That’s way too many road teams for one week. Looks like next week will be my 12-2 breakout.
Before I go, a little reminder. Next Tuesday at 8PM will be the first chance you’ll ever have to see yours truly on national TV that didn’t involve some sort of car chase or criminal activity. ESPN, 8PM, WSOP Main Event Day 1c. If I’m ever going to be on, this will be the day. Hopefully, it won’t be the last time I’m on national TV for non-criminal activity…
And finally, the return of The Quote of The Week:
I’ve got so many to choose from, most of which came from an excursion with a couple of buddies to the local Chinese Buffet restaurant. But no, this week’s award returns to the originator of the space, my mother…
While watching Game Three of the Sox/Sox ALDS last Friday:
Mom: “Why don’t they put in that young kid to pitch?”
Me: “You mean Jonathan Papelbon? He is pitching”
Mom: “No, I know Papelbon’s in there. What about the other one – I think the
announcer said his name was ‘Jonathan Applebaum’…”
Me: (through laughter) “Congratulations ma – you’ve officially made my blog once
again…”
Sometimes, it’s just too easy.
Lata.
