Week 17
Two quick notes before we jump into the picks…
First – I’ve received word from a friend that I’ve been writing too much with my heart and not enough with my head, specifically in reference to my statement that the Bills and Broncos would claim the final AFC Wild Card spots over the Jets.
My response?
Dear Chinzilla,
The Jets looked bad last week. In fact, they’ve looked bad against just about every above average team they’ve faced this year. They are going on the road to play a team that is also fighting for a Wild Card berth. The Rams have only lost 3 of their last 25 or so home games. For as bad as St. Louis is, I don’t think the Jets want it enough. Besides, it’s the Jets.
Thank you for your continued interest in my writing and opinions.
Sincerely,
-- D
Guess that about covers it. Secondly, just a fun little story for you to enjoy. One of my co-workers gave me a 2005 Red Sox “Official Team Calendar” yesterday. Lovely gesture, since he knows how much I live for the Sox.
After opening it, I noticed something interesting. The player photo for January was…
Nomar.
Yes, the starting shortstop for the Chicago Cubs. I checked the dates to make sure that it wasn’t a 2004 Team Calendar, but there it was, in big print. “2005 Official Team Calendar”.
Then I kept looking. June is Derek Lowe (unsigned, but probably not coming back to Boston). December is Gabe Kapler (2005 will be spent eating sushi and feeling really tall).
Surprisingly there was no mention of Pedro Martinez anywhere in the calendar, which leads me to believe that it was a foregone conclusion that he was leaving.
Of course, Curt Schilling got October…
Onto the picks for Week 17! Had a good showing last week at 11-4-1, to give me a legit shot at staying under 100 losses for the year. 136-95-9 Overall, meaning that if I’d had enough cash to actually lay some real bets this year, I’d probably be up about four or five grand. Bah!
49ers (+14) over PATRIOTS: Told you this line would be at least 14 points. All reports here say that this will be treated like an exhibition game for the Patriots – starters play one or two series, then it’s the second and third-teams the rest of the way. I still think New England will win, just not by two TDs.
BILLS (-9) over Steelers: Pittsburgh has no reason to even try in this game. They’re probably going to go the exhibition game route as well and let people rest for two weeks with the bye. Buffalo is going to lay it all on the line for this one – Ralph Wilson Stadium is gonna be rockin’!
Dolphins (+11) over RAVENS: This is going to be an ugly, ugly game. If the final score were 6-3, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. Plus, we get the added treat of seeing Sage Rosenfels compete against Kyle Boller to see who can set the all-time record for lowest QB passer rating… Wait; doesn’t Eli Manning already hold that?
Vikings (-3.5) over REDSKINS: I know, home underdog… I think the Vikes still have a nasty taste in their mouths from the way last year ended, and they don’t want to let it happen again. All they have to do is win and they won’t have to worry about it.
Bengals (-3) over EAGLES: How many times in your life will you get to read something like that? The Bengals… are three point FAVORITES… over the Eagles. The Bengals… are three-point favorites… over the best team in the NFC. How can you not bet with them?
BEARS (-3) over Packers: The Packers can’t rise or fall in the NFC seedings, so they’ll probably rest players after halftime. Of course, they could also have a 21-point lead at halftime, so this pick might become useless…
Saints (+8) over PANTHERS: Before you go reminding me that I picked Carolina to grab the last Wild Card slot… The Panthers will win this game. But I think New Orleans is going to do one of two things. Either (A) Show up big time, play hard, and really make this a battle, or (B) Do what they’ve done in big games for the last five years – roll over and pack their bags for the off-season. Personally, I think (A) is more likely – it’s time for this team to step up and actually try.
TITANS (+3) over Lions: Man, how fast did the Billy Volek bandwagon breakdown? Don’t worry – he’ll come back in a big way against a porous Detroit secondary. Volek to Bennett, Volek to Mason, Volek to Volek - don’t count it out, the way he’s been playing…
RAMS (+3) over Jets: Chad, it’s a privilege, not a right, to play in the NFL. And it’s an even bigger privilege to make it to the playoffs. Why don’t you go out there and prove to me that you’ve earned that privilege, then I might get off your case… Nah.
TEXANS (-10.5) over Browns: If San Francisco finds a way to win against the Pats, which is entirely possible, then the Browns would have the #1 overall pick locked up, assuming they don’t blow it by winning this game. Let’s see – Matt Leinart, Jason White, Mike Williams, Braylen Edwards, Cedric Benson – that’s five reasons right there for Cleveland to give up now.
CARDINALS (-3) over Bucs: The Cards are favorites?! Run away, RUN AWAY! Personally, I’m stunned that they actually covered a game for me last week. I’m telling you – with a running game, a decent QB, some better special team players, and maybe an average defense, this team could contend in the NFC West…
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Falcons: Yet another game between a team with something to play for and a team with nothing to gain or lose. Michael Vick is starting this game… Why? Is Jim Mora’s stress level too low? Does Arthur Blank really need a heart attack? Let him rest and get his arm healthy – two weeks can do wonders for a body.
BRONCOS (-9) over Colts: Denver fans, meet Jim Sorgi - A.K.A. “The guy who plays quarterback when the game doesn’t matter”. He’s not quite as flashy as Peyton, or as skilled, or as big, or as talented. But he’s the QB for the better part of this game. Enjoy your late Christmas present, and welcome to the playoffs.
Jaguars (NL) over RAIDERS: No line has been posted for this game yet, but I’ll guess it’s going to be at about 2. Assuming Byron Leftwich can still see straight, he should pick apart this defense. But this will be too little, too late for the Jags playoff hopes – last week’s collapse just killed them.
CHARGERS (+3) over Chiefs: Two teams with nothing to play for. The difference here is that the Chargers second-team could still beat up this Chiefs defense. Look for Brees, Tomlinson, Gates et al to get a breather early. San Diego fans have been waiting awhile for their team to get this good – hope it was worth it. See you in Gillette in late January…
GIANTS (-3) over the Cowboys: I have no rationale for this, other than I don’t think any Manning could possibly go 0-for- an entire season. Not even this one.
Recap: 49ers / BILLS / Dolphins / Vikings / Bengals / BEARS / Saints / TITANS / RAMS / TEXANS / CARDINALS / SEAHAWKS / BRONCOS / Jaguars / CHARGERS / GIANTS
Wow, lots of home teams this week. OK guys, let’s just make sure we go no worse than 12-4, and I’m home free… (Actually, I’ll be “car paid off…”)
Have a safe, Happy New Year, and I’ll see you all in early ’05.
Lata.
2004 NFL Awards Show
Gee, and I thought my site was popular overseas before…
I checked my stats earlier today, only to find that in the last two weeks I have been read in the US, UK, Canada, Mexico, Iceland, Japan, China and Singapore. Wow. I’ve also gotten almost 500 hits this month alone, which make me very happy to know that my words are getting out there (although I can’t imagine how many people in China, Japan, Iceland and Singapore are Red Sox/Patriots fans…) My thanks to everyone who reads this site regularly or just once, and even bigger thanks to those of you that have passed me along to friends and others who care about sports. I write this stuff not only as a way for me to vent but also as a site for you guys (and girls – yes, plural now). If there’s something you want me to mention, don’t hesitate to e-mail me with a question or comment – it’s nice to know what you all think about this drivel. You can also write your comments on each post as you feel necessary.
So let’s get into today’s topic.
“But wait D… You wrote a long post yesterday! You promised no more long posts – that you’d break the long ones up into three shorter ones!”
True, true. But yesterday’s post covered a broad spectrum of topics, one of which (the poker tournament) I meant to write about late last week but got sidetracked. And I still kept yesterday’s post under 2000 words. Besides, this will be fun and relatively short… (I’ll take “Famous Last Words” for 400 Alex…)
Anyway - the NFL season is, for all practical purposes, over. There’s still the matter of which undeserving team(s) will make the NFC wild card and which very deserving team(s) will get left out in the AFC. Do you realize that the Bills, Patriots and Jets – all AFC East teams – would be three of the top five seeds in the NFC, but in the AFC, one of them is likely to get left out (Hint: NOT the Patriots…)? That’s just insane.
Well then, let’s do a little 2004 NFL Awards Banquet and Playoff Predictions, shall we? Now, I realize that my MLB Awards posting actually spanned two days, so I’ll try to keep this shorter and less gimmicky. (If you’ll notice, I’ve now completed the archives portion of the BlogSpot site – everything I’ve written on Xanga is also available there)
2004 NFL Coach Of The Year:
The debate here comes down to three guys. Two of them have been doing it all season with teams that no one thought would compete. The third had a team that everyone thought should be great but started flat before coming back to life.
Bill Cowher: The Steelers have been a surprise to almost everyone who follows football – they made good off-season moves and had a good draft, to say the least. Once they put it together on the field, well, they became the best team in the NFL.
John Fox: The Panthers were supposed to be a lock for the 1 or 2 seed in the NFC. But after the injury bug left them with a team that more resembled my high school JV team than an NFL team, they fell to 1-7. Since then, they’re 6-1 – with the loss an overtime heartbreaker - and on the doorstep of the #6 seed in the NFC playoff race. Amazing.
Marty Schottenheimer: “San Diego is an absolute mess, and it’s a shame.” That was my take on the Chargers back in my NFL Preview post. The whole Philip Rivers fiasco, the way they pissed away the second half of last season, the fact that KC and Denver were in their division – I gave them no shot. Oops.
Winner: Obviously, Bill Belichick and Andy Reid could be counted in the debate as well - as they have been for the last three years – and Mike Mularkey and Jim Mora Jr. are making strong cases. But I think the playoffs will decide this race. If Pittsburgh makes it to the Super Bowl, Cowher wins. Otherwise, it’s Marty.
2004 NFL MVP:
I think we all know where this one is heading, but just for the hell of it, let’s play it out anyway…
Jerome Bettis: Yes, that Jerome Bettis. The Bus. The one-man wrecking crew. Bettis has stepped up his game this year, taking on the role of #1 running back when Duce Staley was injured, and then fading into the goal line back when Staley was healthy. Heck of a year for the big man.
Drew Brees: Yes, that Drew Brees. Did anyone see this coming? I mean, ANYONE? He’s going to finish the year with about 3200 yards passing, and close to 30TDs while most likely staying under 10 picks (3159, 27 and 7 right now). Those are impressive numbers for a guy who was supposed to be benched in favor of a rookie.
Peyton Manning: Yes, that… nevermind. I think we all know what he’s done this year. 4500 yards, 49TDs and only 10INTs will usually win you an MVP award. Winning the division almost locks it up. Go out and win the Super Bowl Peyton, and they’ll name the damned award after you.
Donovan McNabb: If not for Peyton’s numbers, McNabb’s 3900/31/8 would look pretty good. Of course, McNabb’s got that whole 14-2 record, #1 seed thing going for him too. Plus, he’s only got one great receiver to work with…
Terrell Owens: Go ahead; tell me he’s not a big reason that McNabb’s been so great. Pre-TO, McNabb was a mediocre QB. In his best statistical season, 2001, Donovan threw for 3200/25/12 and a 58% completion percentage. This year’s numbers are above, plus a completion number of 64%. That’s a helluva jump right there.
Winner: I want so badly to give this to McNabb, but I just talked myself out of it with the TO argument. They’re going to split votes, and that leaves the door open for Peyton to sneak through, if it’s possible to “sneak through” with the numbers he’s got. I didn’t include Big Ben or Tom Brady only because I wanted to keep this to the top 5 contenders. (Gee, there’s a shock – Tom Brady not getting the respect he deserves. Guess I’m an official sportswriter now…)
2004 NFL Rookie of the Year:
Yes, I know there are separate awards for Offensive and Defensive rookies of the year. Unfortunately, I do not have the time, the resources or the patience to go looking up the numbers on defensive rookies, so I’m limiting this to offensive players only. Again, this award is just about pre-determined, or is it…
Michael Clayton: Best Wide Receiver in the draft on numbers alone. Over time, Roy Williams and even Lee Evans may prove to be better players. But this season, Clayton has racked up some nice numbers on a bad team (78 catches for 1100+ yards and 6TD’s).
Steven Jackson: For as bad as the Rams have been this year, Jackson has helped keep this team afloat. He’s going to supplant Marshall Faulk next year as the #1 guy, if he hasn’t already. That’s saying something.
Kevin Jones: Once he got healthy, Jones ran wild for the Lions. He warrants mentioning, although I don’t think he’ll garner too many votes.
Julius Jones: See above – just replace “Lions” with “Cowboys”.
Ben Roethlisberger: Before the season, how many of us could even pronounce that name? After the season, how many of us will know that he’s having the best rookie QB season ever? 13-0 as a starter isn’t too bad, and while the numbers aren’t overwhelming (2600+, 17, 11, 66%), he just keeps getting the job done.
Winner: Michael Clayton is making a strong case here late in the year, but there’s really no doubt: Big Ben takes it home with a smile (and maybe a Super Bowl ring to boot…)
See, that wasn’t too painful, now was it? Quickly, let me touch on the playoffs and my predictions. Next week I’ll gloat (or not so much) about how my preseason predictions worked out. And if one person brings up the Redskins…
AFC Playoff Scenarios:
The Steelers, Pats, Colts and Chargers have locked up the 1-4 seeds. None of them have anything to play for but pride. While that may seem like a motivating factor, expect them all to rest their stars, much like the Eagles last night.
The Wild Card is still an option for five teams: Bills, Jets, Ravens, Jaguars and Broncos. The Jets and Broncos are the only two that control their own fate. The Ravens and Jags need a LOT of help to back their way in, and I don’t think it will happen.
Odd man out might be Buffalo, a team that could end up 10-6 and miss the playoffs, while they’d be the #4 seed in the NFC. Surprisingly, the Jets aren’t guaranteed a spot yet. If they lose to the Rams, who are still fighting, and the Bills and Broncos (both at home) beat two teams with no reason to play hard (Pittsburgh and Indy) then the Jets would be out. Now THAT would be amazing, and it’s entirely possible.
Three AFC East teams could feasibly make the playoffs, if the Bills and Jets win and the Broncos lose. That’s why it’s the toughest division in football folks.
NFC Playoff Scenarios:
The Eagles, Falcons and Packers have clinched the 1-3 seeds in the NFC. After that, it’s a crapshoot.
The Vikings (8-7), Saints (7-8), Panthers (7-8) and Rams (7-8) all have a shot at the wild card. At least one 8-8 team will make the playoffs. Seattle (8-7) has clinched at least a wild card. Both the Seahawks and Rams are still alive in the NFC West race.
The Vikings and Seahawks are the only teams with “Win and you’re in” games. With wins, the Vikes would get the #5 seed and the Seahawks would get the #4. As for the rest of the picture, well, who the hell knows?
The mere fact that the Saints have a legit shot to make the post-season is a disgrace. New Orleans becomes a big fan of the Jets (vs. Rams) if the Saints can beat the Panthers in what will be the closest thing to a “Play-In” game for the final spot.
Much like the Jets, the Vikings (another team that should’ve clinched weeks ago) could be left in the cold here. If they lose and the Rams and Panthers win, Minnesota will be stuck with another long, cold winter to figure out what went wrong.
The most fun scenario involves the Rams, who clinch with a win vs. the Jets and a tie between the Panthers and Saints. If that happens, expect an overhaul of the overtime system before the 2005 season…
PREDICTIONS
AFC:
Bills and Broncos make it. Both lose the wild-card game on the road - @ Indy, @SD - both would win if they had the home field. Chargers upset Steelers in Pittsburgh, while Patriots handle the Colts at “The Razor” (best term Dan Dierdorf has ever come up with). Pats take care of San Diego in a snowstorm to advance to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.
NFC:
Vikings and Panthers make it – Seahawks “win” the West. Vikings upset Seattle and Panthers keep it close in Green Bay but ultimately fold. Vikings travel to Philly where Donovan McNabb picks them apart with his arm and feet. Green Bay has to go to Atlanta, and the Falcons defense shuts down Brett and Ahman. Falcons go to Philly in the same snowstorm and handle the TO-less Eagles with ease to advance to their second Super Bowl in eight years – c’mon everyone, let’s do the Dirty Bird!
Super Bowl:
Pats (-6) over Falcons: I gotta take the Patriots here. Something about Mike Vick in a big game against a defense that loves to change things up on a QB. Pats, big. And the dynasty talk begins anew.
OK, I actually feel pretty good about these predictions. To all of you Jets / Ravens / Jags / Rams / Saints fans; sorry, not happening for you guys this year. Try to take care of business earlier in the season and you won’t have to worry about Week 17 playoff scenarios.
That’s it. Picks Thursday or Friday, and my 2004 season recap next week! Lata.
Quick Thoughts - Week 16
Thoughts while wondering how many times I’ll be subjected to the Eli Manning / Ryan Leaf comparison before next season…
- 23 games and counting now: number of games in which the Patriots have scored first, yesterday waiting until the second quarter to break the 0-0 tie.
- 72 days and counting: number of days since a professional sports team from the New York/New Jersey area defeated one from the Boston/New England area (October 16th – ALCS Game 3). Hell, even the Celtics beat the Knicks twice! Not that I’m keeping track…
- 16 weeks and counting: since the Giants threw a TD pass to a starting Wide Receiver. I’m starting to think that maybe it is the receivers’ fault for not getting open enough…
- I’m wondering what the line will open at for the Pats/Niners season finale next week at Gillette. Pats (-14)? (-21)? (-35)? Anybody? And would anyone be surprised to see that line?
- Congratulations to Peyton Manning, for doing something that nobody ever thought he could do. Leading his team back from a 4th quarter deficit in a big game. Oh, and there’s that touchdown thing too…
- Best game I actually got to watch this weekend? KC/Oakland, no doubt. No defense, tons of offense, and three chances to grab the lead with under three minutes in the game. Outstanding, even if the game meant nothing.
- Worst game? Miami/Cleveland. This was sick. I actually only watched one series, preferring instead to tune into CBS and “Ocean’s Eleven” (which I’ve seen about fifteen times). Let’s put it this way – midway through the third quarter I turned it on to see the Dolphins intercept a pass, try to lateral it and fumble, recover, then successfully complete a lateral, then fumble it anyway - the ball was recovered by the Browns. Net result? The Browns gained 27 yards and a first down. Just all around bad play. So of course the Dolphins won 10-7.
- I really need a satellite dish, if only for Sunday Ticket (and maybe MLB extra innings).
- The Jaguars really shot themselves in the foot yesterday. All they had to do was win out against a mediocre team (Houston) and a bad team (Oakland) and they were basically assured the playoffs. Now they need about fifteen things to go right for them to back their way into the postseason.
- Amazing as it might sound, the Vikings are not in the playoffs yet. They still need St. Louis to lose one of their last two games (tonight vs. Phily or next week against the Jets) or the Vikes need to beat the Redskins in D.C. next week. Don’t be surprised if they’re watching the playoffs again this year.
- Buffalo might be the team that gets shafted the worst this season. They stand a good chance to go 10-6, hosting the Steelers in a game that is meaningless for Pittsburgh next week. But the Bills would still need Denver to lose, at home, to a Colts team that has nothing to gain by showing up. Looks like it’s gonna be too little, too late for Drew and the crew.
- Carolina, on the other hand, already holds the tiebreaker for the #6 seed in the NFC, and all they have to do is beat the Saints, in Carolina, to clinch. Now that would be amazing.
- Does anyone else realize that the Cardinals weren’t eliminated until yesterday? Stupid parity…
Couple of other notes to pass along:
I played in another live poker tournament at Foxwoods on Thursday, this one a $100 buy-in No Limit Hold-‘Em game. No rebuys, so everyone plays just a little tighter. Everyone has $2000 to start - 1500 in $500 chips, 300 in $100 chips and 200 in $25 chips. I played extremely well – making good reads, winning big hands, etc. I only had one hand mucked to me – I won every race, every showdown, everything. Well, every one except for one. Let me tell you about a couple of hands…
After the first two hours, I was sitting pretty with about 8000 in chips when the average was about 4500. I caught pocket 8’s in the big blind (100-200, 25 ante). A guy at the end of my table bet 500. The small blind raised to 1000, and I re-raised to 3000. Looking back, that was not the right play, since 8’s aren’t very strong with two other players in the hand pre-flop.
The first bettor folded, and the small blind called. The flop came up Js-2s-8d, giving me a set and him, at best, a flush or straight draw. He bet 2000 and I immediately raised over the top all-in. He called without even hesitating, and was pretty angry when he saw just how far behind his A-J unsuited was. The turn and river brought nothing, and when we broke down our stacks, I found out I had him covered – by one $25 chip.
After what was basically a double-up, I was overall chip leader with less than 90 of 250 people left. Some of you may remember the last time I was overall chip leader late in a big tournament, and how that worked out for me. Right.
A couple of trips around the table, and a couple of small wins, and I was in the big blind again. This time I held A-J suited. Not a terrible hand to have in the big blind. A kid at the other end of my table raised from the 400 big blind to 1600 (he had a pretty big stack too). The guy directly next to him went all in for about 2300. It came around to me and I went all-in over the top with my 16,000-chip stack. The first bettor looked sick, since he had essentially just given away either 1600 chips or his entire stack, depending on if he wanted to call (truth be told, I didn’t want a call – I figured the other all-in to have a pair and I didn’t want to have to chase down two players when one would suffice. I even told him “Hey, nothing personal – didn’t want to have to chase two of you.”)
He folded and the all-in showed his pocket kings. I caught a jack, but nothing else, and he doubled up at my expense. This hand also knocked me from overall chip leader to #2, behind the kid who had made the 1600-chip raise. I now had 12,000+ chips – he had somewhere around 13,500.
Next hand, I’m the small blind (obviously). Still at the 200-400 level with a $50 ante. I get A-Q suited. Ugh. Around the table we go, and the same kid makes the same raise to 1600 chips. Everyone folds, and I go all-in once again. Once again he looks like he’s about to throw up. Someone says “Uh oh, now it’s personal…” Sitting there, stone-faced, I was thinking to myself “If he calls, I’m probably way behind…”
He called. He flipped A-8 suited. He looked even sicker when he saw my A-Q. And even worse when the guy to my left, the Big Blind, said, “Damn, I folded 8-8. Thought at least one of you had Aces or Kings.”
Within seconds, this turned into a made for TV showdown. This was the type of hand where you’d hear Norman Chad saying things like “There’s only one card he can catch to win this – D is about a 9-1 favorite to win this hand”. Then the flop came up 6-7-9 rainbow. Now I could hear Norman saying “And that gives the youngster a few more outs, any 5, 10, or 8. But there is only one 8 in the deck, so he’s probably hoping for the 5 or 10.”
Turn brought another 7. Now with the board pair, if a 6 or a 9 came down we’d split the pot with two-pair and our ace kickers. He could still beat me with a 5, 10, or the last 8; otherwise I’d double up and cripple him.
Naturally, the river was the last 8. There was a loud groan from everyone at the table, as well as the next table over that decided to watch the hand since both chip leaders were involved. I tried to slink away to a corner where I could fume over my luck once again, as everyone at the table shook my hand and said things like “Tough beat” and “Geez, that hurts”. Even the guy who beat me couldn’t crack a smile – He knew how bad it was.
I found out later that he won the tournament outright – and the $5000 first place prize. That would’ve been nice, considering that I could use the money – I don’t do this whole writing thing because the pay is good…
Anyway, that was how my last tournament ended. I got home and immediately played about four tourneys online just to try and administer bad beats to as many people as I could (and I did, too). But that’s why I love poker. Everything evens out in the end.
Finally, the passing of a legend. I’m starting to think that I should have led off with this just so you wouldn’t all be bummed out after reading today. But oh well…
Reggie White’s passing was about as unexpected as a death can ever be, although none of us ever really knows when we are going to die. I turned on my computer yesterday morning and saw the “Breaking News” headline on ESPN.com. I honestly thought I had fallen back to sleep and was still dreaming. For someone that was so beloved in his community and among his peers to have fallen so young is a tragedy.
I only got to watch him after he joined the Packers in 1992 – I never watched the Eagles in the late 80’s, it was Pats or Bills or bust. White really turned that franchise around. From the glory days of TitleTown to the down and out years just before Brett Favre arrived, Green Bay was down as low as they’d ever been. Then a hulk of a man joined the Pack as a free agent and suddenly the team was legitimate again. Ever since Reggie and Brett appeared in Green Bay the team has been riding a wave of success, including the Super Bowl win over my Pats in ’96, and another appearance the next year against the unstoppable force of the 1997-98 Denver Broncos.
Early reports say he died from a combination of being morbidly overweight and suffering from severe sleep apnea. I too am morbidly overweight and suffer from severe sleep apnea, two things I’ve tried to correct in the past with no luck. But now, I think it’s time for me to take a long, hard look at myself and fix the problems, fast.
See, I didn’t want to end on a downer, but between the two stories, neither one was really going to let you leave with a smile on your face. Well, I guess I’ll have to repeat one of my quick thoughts so we can end on a happy note:
- 72 days and counting: number of days since a professional sports team from the New York/New Jersey area defeated one from the Boston/New England area.
There, I feel much better now. Lata…
Week 16
Well, that Yankees/Dodgers/Diamondbacks three-team ten-player deal fell apart faster than the Eagles title chances. I have to commend Paul DePodesta for sticking to his guns, reevaluating the deal, and deciding that it did not make sense for his team. The fact that it hurts the Yankees? Well, that’s just icing on the cake… Guess this means that Carlos Beltran should be a Yankee by, what? 9PM? 8?
Let’s get right into this week’s picks. I’m posting this on Wednesday rather than Thursday because (A) I’m taking Thursday as a personal day to catch up on sleep and shopping (yeah, I started too late. Again.) and (B) since there’s a game on Friday (Friday?!?) this week, I won’t get another chance to post before it’s played.
8-7-1 last week, putting me at 125-91-8 for 2004. What do you think the chances are for me to keep my losses under 100, for the regular season at least? On second thought, don’t answer that…
Lines from ESPN.com’s Daily Line: 12/22/04
Packers (+3) over VIKINGS: Very simple, win and they’re in. If GB wins, they win the NFC North. If Minnesota wins, they guarantee at least a playoff berth. This is going to be one hell of a game, and yes, I’ll be sitting on my couch splitting time between PartyPoker on the laptop and the TV.
Raiders (+8) over CHIEFS: A couple of weeks ago these two teams met in Oakland. My thoughts at the time? I took Oakland (+3) with the theory that: “I’m convinced that the Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone.” And now? I’m still convinced that the Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone. Of course, KC won the last game 34-27 – I’d still take that, especially with the nice 8-point line up there…
TITANS (-4) over Broncos: Doesn’t Denver just give you that feeling that they’re playing not to lose? Maybe it’s just me. Of course, the fact that Billy Volek has passed for almost 1,000 yards and 8TD’s in the last two weeks might have something to do with this pick as well. My money is on him ending up in San Fran or Chicago next year – he’s a free agent after ’04.
Ravens (+5) over STEELERS: Sooner or later, I’ll pick against the Steelers and they’ll actually LOSE. I went with them (and the ridiculous 11-point spread) last week, so of course they eeked out a 3-point win over the Giants. This week, they’ll probably win by 20.
LIONS (-5.5) over Bears: That really is a tough way to lose a big game – just ask all those Giants fans that remember the playoff game against the 49ers from a few years back… (’01, ’02? I forget.) Side Note: I fell asleep during halftime of the 1PM games on Sunday. I woke up and flipped the TV to FOX just in time to see the last three plays of the supposed “game-tying” drive, and then the botched field goal. Then I rolled back over and slept for another hour. Yeah, I’m a waste.
Giants (+6) over BENGALS: Only because Carson Palmer is still sore and Jon Kitna looked so horrible last week. Well that, plus Eli actually played like a Manning against the Steelers. Betcha Tiki has a nice day…
Chargers (+7) over COLTS: It’s nice to know that big networks like ESPN aren’t in the business of over-hyping events. I didn’t even know there was a movie about the life of Dale Earnhardt until I flipped channels and caught a couple minutes of it. Then, I guess there’s some record that Peyton Manning is close to getting – maybe they should publicize it more, I don’t think many people know about it. And did you know there’s some big basketball game on Christmas Day? Haven’t heard much about that…
JAGUARS (-7) over Texans: The Jags are really fighting for their playoff lives, and if getting into the post-season means knocking someone’s head off, then so be it. Yes, I’m still amazed that Donovan Darius didn’t get suspended for at least this game, if not next week as well. Jack Tatum made the same hard hit back in the day, and he’s been vilified ever since. Of course the receiver he clothes-lined was paralyzed…
Panthers (+3) over BUCS: Are you kidding me? Carolina loses, in OT, after a miracle comeback, to Mike Vick and the #2 seed Falcons, and suddenly they’re an underdog to Tampa?? C’mon people! NFL Parity note: the Panthers can all but lock-up the 6th playoff spot with a win in this game – think John Fox won’t have his boys fired up?
SAINTS (-3.5) over Falcons: At first glance, that line looked backwards to me. Then I remembered that Mike Vick and other stars are probably going to sit out the final two Falcons’ games, since they are already cemented into the #2 seed in the NFC. Since the Saints are still fighting for a spot, look for them to play hard all the way, meaning they’ll probably get blown out in both games.
Patriots (-2) over JETS: Before Monday Night, that line would have been at about 6 or so. But after that choke job, it looks like the bookies have a little less faith in the Pats. So do I – if the line had been any higher than 3.5, I probably would have taken the Jets. All I can say is, LET’S GO RAVENS!
Bills (-11.5) over 49ERS: Can you believe that 3 AFC East teams have a legit shot at making the playoffs now? The Pats are in, the Jets have a stranglehold on the #5 seed, and the Bills are just a tiebreaker away from the #6 spot. That being said, I think this game will either be very close (like, 3 points) or a complete Buffalo blowout (like, 20 points) – there’s no in-between here. And just so you know, I originally picked the Niners, but then I talked myself into the Bills. I hate second guessing myself…
COWBOYS (+3) over Redskins: Ok, so it’s a meaningless game between two intra-division rivals. Between two old school coaches who are both suffering through one of their worst seasons. Between two teams with nothing to play for other than pride. And the home team is an underdog??
Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS: I refuse to give a reason behind a pick involving the Cardinals ever again. I just can’t figure them out. Do you realize they still have a shot at the NFC West Title? If there was ever a less deserving division winner…
DOLPHINS (-7) over Browns: Something tells me this matchup sounded just a little bit more exciting back when the schedule came out…
RAMS (-3) over Eagles: This would be a classic “Win one for (insert name of injured player here)” game, if the Iggles stood to gain or lose anything based on the outcome. I think McNabb will sit most of the game, along with Westbrook and Kearse. The Rams are still fighting for the playoffs, so they’ll play everyone. Whether or not that’s a good thing remains to be seen. Who do you think was cringing more at the news of T.O.’s injury – Phily fans or ABC execs?
Speaking of T.O. and Phily, has a collective city’s title hopes ever been dashed as quickly as those of Philadelphia and Eagles fans nation-wide? Maybe Red Sox fans after Curt Schilling went down. On second thought, that worked out OK…
RECAP: Packers / Raiders / TITANS / Ravens / LIONS / Giants / Chargers / JAGUARS / Panthers / SAINTS / Patriots / Bills / COWBOYS / Cardinals / DOLPHINS / RAMS
That’s all I got for this week. If I have a winning record in Week 16, I go in to the final set of regular season games with a shot at less than 100 losses. I don’t think anyone could ever be excited about having a chance to finish a season with less than 100 losses.
Well, maybe Mets fans…
ZZZZING! Lata.
Baseball's moving season - to date
You’d think I would know better by now. Seriously. For the last three weeks, I’ve diligently watched Monday Night Football until either (A) The game was “out of reach” or (B) The clock struck midnight and I passed out. And then there’s the ever popular (C) All of the above. Last night was one of those, a typical (C)-type Monday Night Football game.
Oops.
I turned off the TV and fell asleep late in the 4th quarter with the Patriots up 28-17 and about four minutes on the clock. (I actually had a dream that they lost by a point, which is pretty eerie to me. I know I’m in tune with the sports world, but that’s a bit creepy.)
Two weeks ago, I did the same thing in a very unentertaining, ho-hum Dallas/Seattle game. That turned out to be one of the best comebacks in MNF history. Last week, for KC/Tennessee, I decided that the game wasn’t all that important, and since it was tied, I’d just find out who won in the morning. Then the two teams combined for 31 4th quarter points and I missed every one of them.
This week, I did my best to watch the whole thing. I didn’t even look at my bed until the Patriots had a comfortable lead late in the game. I stayed clear of my bedroom, choosing to watch the game in the living room just so I could stay awake. When it finally looked like it was over, I went to bed.
I’m never going to sleep again.
Bah. Let’s just move into today’s topic. Yesterday, I mentioned that I thought that Billy Beane was either a complete idiot or a complete genius. The same can be said about many GM’s who have made moves so far this year (although only Arte Moreno – Anaheim - and Jeff Moorad – Arizona - have made as many headlines).
I’ve already commented on a few of the teams involved in baseball’s moving season to date, so let’s focus on a couple of teams that didn’t get mentioned before. I might touch on the Angels again, only because they keep making moves to get better.
Atlanta: Wow, is there anyone out there who really doubts that John Schuerholz is the best GM is baseball anymore? I’ve been saying it for years, and no one ever listens to me. But after adding an All-Star closer and an All-Star starter, not to mention moving a former All-Star starter out of the bullpen and back into the rotation, he’s got to start getting the credit he deserves. I don’t care if you’re a Braves fan or not, but 13 straight division titles (and the odds-on favorite to make it 14) with ever-decreasing payrolls speak for themselves. The guy just knows baseball.
St. Louis: I like the Mulder trade. I don’t like what they gave up for him, but if his second-half collapse last season isn’t indicative of a chronic problem then they probably got him as cheaply as they could have hoped for. Right now, I’ve got Hudson, Mulder and Pedro in my top three for NL Cy Young in 2005 – every one of them had a good year in the AL, and now they’re moving to the pitcher friendly NL. Once Randy Johnson goes to the Yankees and Roger Clemens retires and Ben Sheets gets traded mid-season, there won’t be any competition. Maybe Roy Oswalt.
Milwaukee: Yes, you read that right: MILWAUKEE. They’re doing a very nice job overhauling their team up there in beer country. Small market teams that hope for 70 wins in a season don’t need All-Star closers. They traded Danny Kolb and got back some great prospects. They traded Scott Podsednik for a big right-handed bat in Carlos Lee. This is a great example of a team making moves to deal players when their value was the highest. Nice work. If they hold on to Ben Sheets and somehow sign him long term (which I can’t imagine will happen), they could be very competitive in the near future.
Oakland: I’ll admit, on the face of it, it appears as though Billy Beane is giving up on 2005 and looking ahead to ’06 and ’07 when all of those Braves and Cardinals prospects will be ready. But then you look at the top of the A’s rotation – Barry Zito (Cy Young lefty), Rich Harden (fireballer with 4 great pitches), Joe Blanton (prospect with a seemingly endless ceiling), and you think, “Maybe this guy knows what he’s doing…” Sure, there will be stretches when the younger players have to find themselves. And the back end of the rotation is nothing spectacular (but really, whose is?). But overall, the moves he made seem to make sense, both short and long term. And Beane doesn’t make moves unless they make sense for his team.
Los Angeles: I’ve got no idea what they’re doing. I guess getting rid of Shawn Green and getting New York to pay for most of Javier Vasquez will give them the financial freedom to get JD Drew, but if that’s what they needed, then why not spend on Adrian Beltre and Steve Finley? Beltre and Drew are both young but injury prone. Finley didn’t do much for you last year except push your team over the top and into the NL West title. Dunno – doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Maybe Paul DePodesta’s got a bigger picture in mind…
Anaheim: Told ya. They are now the prohibitive favorites to win the AL West again. So far they’ve signed Kendry Morales from Cuba, Steve Finley, and now Orlando Cabrera (though $8M a year is a bit much). Morales and Finley give them flexibility at first, third and the outfield. Cabrera provides them with a huge upgrade over David Eckstein, who unfortunately just isn’t the prototypical MLB shortstop. I see him ending up as a second baseman somewhere (Yankees?) – speed, great glove, average arm, hits for average - not power. That’s a prototypical second baseman in today’s MLB.
Boston: Didn’t think I could talk baseball without at least mentioning my boys, did you? They granted Dave Roberts his wish yesterday, trading him to a team where he can play everyday. They even traded him to his hometown team, making a great deal for everyone involved. The Padres get a speedy, talented, NL-oriented centerfielder and leadoff hitter, Roberts gets to go home, and the Sox got Jay Payton as a right-handed hitter off the bench, along with a backup shortstop, pitching prospect and $2.7M in cash. Not bad.
Speaking of the Red Sox… So I told you that I spent Friday night in Boston hanging out with friends for a birthday. We started the night in Vox Populi on Boylston Street, halfway between Copley and Hynes. After hanging around for about an hour and a half upstairs, a relatively large surge of people began moving around behind us. Then one of my friends (I forget who) looked up and said “Holy Shit – That’s Kevin Millar!”
Yep. Millar walked right behind us into a separate seating area to have a couple drinks and talk ball. So did Bronson Arroyo (and his newly styled “blond ‘fro”). And Mark Bellhorn. And I have no doubt that had we stayed longer, half of the team would have shown up.
They attracted quite a crown of onlookers. No, I did not drool into my pint of Guinness. And no, I did not walk over to be “that guy” who pays far too much attention to celebrities.
It was pretty cool, nonetheless. Had I been quicker-thinking (and less inebriated), I probably would have bought them each a shot of Jack Daniels, with a smile, and then walked away. But oh well. Opportunity missed.
So that’s that. I’ll have picks here by Thursday because of the games Friday. And if you don’t read my Thursday article, then have a happy and safe holiday.
Lata.
Quick Thoughts - Week 15
Thoughts while wondering how many times the elusive “player to be named later” has been traded in Major League Baseball…
· Billy Beane is either an idiot or the second or third best GM in the game of baseball (behind John Schuerholz and maybe Theo Epstein). What he’s done with his rotation could be called anything from downright stupid to a move that only a true mastermind of the game could pull off. He shopped Tim Hudson - the second best starter he had available - to see what was available. When he found out that St. Louis wouldn’t give up their top prospects for Hudson, he moved Tim to Atlanta (much like I said he would). Then he returned to the Cardinals and asked Walt Jocketty if those prospects would be available for Mark Mulder – the best starter the A’s had made available. The answer, well, I think we all know how that worked out.
· I don’t like the Matt Clement signing. It was a reaction rather than an action. This off-season, the Red Sox have enough good will and free reign built up in and around Boston that the could have fielded a team comprised of little more than the Pawtucket Red Sox and the fans still would have been happy. To give a guy whose stuff is suspect $25.5 Million guaranteed over three years is bad. To give it to a guy who has never pitched in the American League is worse. Don’t get me wrong – I was glad they signed Clement. I just don’t think he was worth what they gave him.
· Pedro Martinez’ “They will be the best bad team in baseball” comment is laughable, only because he just signed with the Mets. He Petey – you’re PLAYING for the best bad team in baseball buddy…
· To be honest, The Mets now have the second best rotation… in the NL East. Not that that is saying much, but they might be able to contend past the All-Star break this year. Hell, they might even be buyers come July 31st once again. And Vinny, if you thought I hated your team before, well, you ain’t seen NOTHIN’ yet…
OK, onto my quick-hit football thoughts from the past couple of days…
· Joey Harrington’s whole “I’m getting tired of being ‘that close’” routine during yesterday’s post game interview was just totally, utterly ridiculous. Way to throw your teammates under the bus there chief. Because we all know you would be having an MVP caliber season, if only your receivers would stand where you threw the ball, instead of where the play dictated they should be…
· Did ANYONE watch the Skins/Niners game Saturday? Yeah, didn’t think so…
· Ravens/Colts – great game. Long game, but great game. And I was right when I said that Indy wouldn’t hit 21 points – I just expected Baltimore to keep it closer than that… Ooooh, good gambling moment involving this game. Late 4th quarter, game’s all but done, but Baltimore is driving down 10. They’re in field goal range, and they need a figgie and a TD to tie. All Kyle Boller has to do is protect the ball to give them the FG and give gamblers worldwide a cover (BAL +7.5). So naturally, he throws an INT. Sometimes you gotta take one for the greater good Kyle…
· Panthers/Falcons – Better game (Longer game, but better game). Michael Vick is going to be a force in the playoffs, once again. They’ve got the 2-seed locked up, meaning that TJ Duckett can get healthy for a few more weeks. That is going to be huge when they get to play a home playoff game in, well, in a long time…
· Is it me, or does it seem rather absurd that the Saints still have a legit shot at the #6 spot in the playoffs? And should I be cheering for them to make it, only so that we would all get the chance to wager everything we own AGAINST Aaron Brooks and Jim Haslett coming up big in a do-or-die game?
· I have to admit, it was good to finally see Eli Manning break out of his little (HUGE) rookie funk. Now, if only he could figure out how to win a game… (Hey Eli – try throwing a TD pass to a Wide Receiver… 15 weeks and counting!) Jeremy Shockey is the only person on the Giants with more than one receiving TD. That’s pretty scary.
· The Packers/Jags game yesterday afternoon was a great example of how football should be played (minus one devastating cheap shot by Donovan Darius). Two teams beating the hell out of each other on hallowed NFL ground in sub-zero temperatures. Two warrior QB’s throwing BB’s to wide receivers who blocked the ball with their chest more than they caught it. Yet another late game comeback attempt by Brett Favre that fell short only because of an ill-advised pass in the end zone and a failure to recover a loose onside kick. Very good TV…
· On the other hand, the hit be Donovan Darius, well, that was just plain ugly. Expect a big fine (think $25-30k range) and possibly a one game suspension, since he did leave his feet to level Robert Ferguson. The fact that Ferguson is OK with nothing more than a sprained neck should be secondary – the fact remains that the man lost feeling in his limbs for almost twenty minutes and could easily have been paralyzed for life. I like hard hits as much as the next guy, but lets keep them legal hits too…
· Tonight’s game – Pats (-9.5) v. Dolphins in Miami… I’m sticking with my pick of New England to win and cover. If they do, I go 9-6-1 for Week 15, and get up to 36 games over .500. Otherwise, well, let’s not think about “otherwise”…
And the last section of the day, my wild, wacky, fun poker experiences…
So, I’ve been regaling you with my tales of big wins and bad beats since I started playing online at PartyPoker for real. At one point, I had turned my initial deposit into about $400, winning just about every one-table tournament I entered.
Well, unfortunately, I got greedy last week. I decided to move up in rank from the $10 “one-table Sit-N-Go” tourneys to the $30 ones. Not a bad move, considering that a win would add $150 to my account, and even a 3rd place finish in the money would give me $60.
Four tournaments later, I had finished 4th, 4th, 4th, and 4th, one spot out of the money each time. No, I’m not kidding. I had taken a strategy of playing conservative and building a sizeable chip stack until the first 5 of 10 players were eliminated, then just going all-in on any hand that was worthwhile.
I’ve noticed that players on PartyPoker play much more conservatively than other sites. “All-in” carries much more meaning to them. This strategy has served me well in the past. I either fold or go all-in, no in-between (unless I’m setting a BIG trap). After awhile, people get the idea that I’m not just trying to steal the blinds, which then allows me to steal the blinds a few times. Circle of (poker) Life.
Anyway, back to the tourneys. I was busted out with a high pocket pair each time. Aces twice, Kings once, and a Set of Jacks once. The Jacks lost to 4 of a kind on the river, the Kings were up against Aces, and both Aces fizzled out to a set on either the turn or the river. Ridiculous.
So after a horrific day of loses, I decided to move back down in class to the $10 tourneys, where I once again dominated the competition. My strategy is much more useful there, as those players are usually newbies who either can’t afford to lose their $10 buy-in or who have only seen poker on TV and won’t go all-in with anything less than pocket 10’s. Makes for easy pickings.
So, overall, I’m about even. I lost my money on a couple of sites, but I’ve made it back on PartyPoker. Everything evens out in the end.
A little poker humor for you, before I get into the quotes. Playing at a $0.50/$1 NL table last night, a couple of guys were having quite the argument. Since I had just had one hell of a war of words between myself and the guy to my right who was from Brockton MA (we argued over Taunton vs. Brockton, much to the horror and amusement of the others at the table – “Just because you put ‘City of Champions’ on your water tower doesn’t make it true” – my line of the night), I decided to stay out of this one.
After four straight hands in which one of the guys had flopped a King-high flush, a set of Queens, a 10-high straight, and a Full house, the other player involved in the argument typed, in all caps,
“IS THERE ANYTHING YOU DON’T FLOP?!?”
To which, the other player simply responded: “Yeah, my wife.”
Dunno, seemed funny at the time…
Finally, the Quotes of the Week(end):
Two this weekend (busy weekend), both from this past Friday night. I was in Boston celebrating a friend’s birthday at Vox Populi (good story about the bar later this week). We decided to leave and go to another bar, The Last Drop (I think that’s what it was called) over on Mass Ave.
Along the way, we passed a few homeless men on Newbury Street. Most of them were bundled up and sleeping in alcoves or the bus shelters. But one man was dancing around, singing, doing anything short of dropping his pants to get some money out of us. Finally, as we walked by, he came out with this gem:
“It’s the Christmas season people, and you all know what the best Nation in the world is at Christmas time, right? It’s a DONATION!”
I almost gave him five bucks just for giving me material, but then I decided to spend the money more wisely (ahem, beer for me - not you, cough).
Later at the bar, my friend Tex was telling me about his flight home for the holidays. He was relatively drunk, and was worrying about flying out in today’s weather (snow, wind, freezing rain, absolutely hellish travel conditions). Sitting at the bar, trying to focus his eyes at me, he mumbled something unintelligible. When I asked him to repeat it, he looked up and said:
“Dude, just make me a promise… If, God-forbid, anything terrible happens, and my plane goes down in a ball of flames, just make sure they do one thing. Try to have them bury me next to a hot chick…”
Only Tex would say something like that. And only I would reprint the drunken statements of a close friend for the entire world to enjoy…
Until next time, lata.
