Week 9 Rants and Ranks
Different format starting today. I figure I might as well put a costume on my normal post in honor of Halloween. Rather than write my usual Tuesday rants, adding a witty remark here and a random thought there, I’m going to break this down to real nuts and bolts football stuff.
I’m sure you’re all devastated.
Starting today, I’m going to do a weekly ranking of all 32 NFL teams. I know; it’s not exactly an original idea. Everybody and their brother has their own version of weekly
”Power Rankings”. I’m not exactly breaking new ground here.
I do vow, however, to come up with a far better name than “Weekly Power Rankings”. I’ll work on it.
So, without further ado:
WEEK 9 “RANTS AND RANKS” (Hey, that just might work…)
1) Indianapolis (7-0): Yup. I’m putting them above Chicago. Chicago’s opponents have a combined record right now of 13-30. Indy’s opponents have a combined record of 24-26. Conclusion – both teams are 7-0; the Colts have done it against better teams. Maybe not more impressively, but against better opposition. That gives them the top spot in my book.
2) Chicago (7-0): See above. Although, the Bears’ schedule lends itself nicely to a 15-1 or 14-2 season…
3) New England (6-1): Admit it – you forgot how good this Patriots team was, didn’t you? Look at the rest of their schedule – they still get to play Green Bay, Detroit, Miami, the Jets, Houston, and Tennessee. Can you say 13-3, minimum? (BTW – Bold prediction of the week: The Patriots/Colts game next Sunday Night on NBC will be the highest-rated game of the season, for any network. That includes the Super Bowl. Think it’s a coincidence that the game falls at the beginning of November Sweeps Weeks?)
4) NY Giants (5-2): I basically flipped a coin to decide between the Giants and the Broncos. Both teams have losses to Indy. Both teams look like they’ve got game-controlling, dominant defenses. But I trust Eli Manning a hell of a lot more than I trust Jake Plummer.
5) Denver (5-2): Really expected more out of them against the Colts this week. That was a winnable game. You think any other team leaves that much time on the clock for Peyton Manning to work with? More importantly – how bad is Darrent Williams? He just looked lost out there…
6) Baltimore (5-2): One of two things is going to happen. Either Steve McNair is going to fall ill (I think leprosy is the only thing he hasn’t had to deal with in his career) or the Ravens are going to roll to the AFC Title Game. That defense is nasty enough to slow down a lot of teams, and if the offense is even competent (13-17 points a game), they are good enough to win a lot of the games left on the schedule.
7) Atlanta (5-2): Yeah, I know. New Orleans stomped Atlanta a few weeks back. But that was possibly the most emotional NFL game in the last five years, since the games the week after 9/11. I really believe that on a neutral field (or in Atlanta, where they’ll play later this season) the Falcons wipe the Saints out.
8) New Orleans (5-2): Another coin flip with Baltimore. Basically, the Ravens beat them this week (really, the Saints beat themselves), so Baltimore gets to be one spot higher. The Saints look legit, and whether it’s pure emotion driving them, or maybe they are better than a lot of people thought. But they sure are fun to watch, and even more fun to root for.
9) San Diego (5-2): But two of the next four games without Shawne Merriman (Denver & Cincy) are going to be tough. At least he smartly dropped his appeal of the suspension and won’t risk missing both Broncos games.
10) St. Louis (4-3): Even with the lack of defense, they have the offensive weapons to roll over a few teams. Remember 1999 and 2001? Yeah – the Rams didn’t have much defense those two years either. Both seasons ended up with a trip to the Super Bowl.
11) Minnesota (4-3): I’m not feeling real good about this placement, not after the way the Patriots exposed them for the entire world to see last night. But you’re never as good as your best game, and never as bad as your worst. I think the Vikings are a better team than the Patriots made them out to be, but if other teams were playing close enough attention, the Vikes will have to change game plans in a hurry.
12) Cincinnati (4-3): They need a defense, and fast. Unlike St. Louis, they don’t have the luxury of a moderately easy schedule the rest of the way. They’ll have to win some of those games the hard way, and right now, they don’t have the defense to do it.
13) Kansas City (4-3): Is this Damon Huard / Trent Green situation shaping up like Tom Brady / Drew Bledsoe? Moreover, when Green is ready to go, does he get the reigns immediately? I mean, the Chiefs are 4-2 with Huard – I can’t imagine that Herm Edwards just hands over the keys to the team if the Chiefs win two more games without Trent Green under center.
14) Dallas (4-3): Check that – Tony Romo / Drew Bledsoe looks like it’s going to end up as Tom Brady / Drew Bledsoe. Yeah, I know. I’m about the 948,142th different person to make that comparison. So what? The Cowboys are a better team with Bledsoe on the bench. I say he either goes to Oakland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, or off into the sunset of retirement next season. Maybe he could be the next Vinny Testaverde – stay in shape, sign a contract after Week six every season for whichever team loses their QB to a season ending injury.
15) Jacksonville (4-3): These next three teams are essentially a toss-up for me. I’ve got Jacksonville “on top” only because they beat Philly, and I think they could beat Carolina. But honestly, you try to figure these guys out.
16) Carolina (4-4): No reason to cough up that game against the Cowboys. But they’ve got the talent on both sides of the ball to finish the year with about 10 wins. Whether or not that’s enough for a playoff berth remains to be seen.
17) Philadelphia (4-4): In my season preview post, I put Philadelphia at 6-10 on the year. Within a day, I was recanting and trying to backtrack. Now I’m beginning to think I was right the first time. They’ve got four wins, and they came against Houston, San Francisco, Green Bay and Dallas. Admittedly, three of their four losses came on the last play of the game, including a blown offensive pass interference call against Plaxico Burress and a 62-yard field goal by a kicker that hadn’t broken 30-yards on any of his kicks before that. But still, can’t deny the fact that they’ve beaten one team over .500, and that was a hugely emotional game.
18) Seattle (4-3): Obviously, the return of Hasslebeck and Alexander will vault them back up this list. But for now, I’m counting on as many losses as possible. The more the better – that first round pick that Deion Branch cost them is going to be awfully sweet next Spring…
19) Pittsburgh (2-5): I hate myself for putting them this high, especially with a 2-5 record. But for as much as I hate the team, and as much as I’m taking a certain perverse pleasure in their monumental implosion this season, I just can’t believe they’re this bad. I still think they’ll finish the year closer to 8-8 than 4-12. Or maybe right in the middle at 6-10.
20) NY Jets (4-4): I’m not quite sure where to classify the Jets, so I’m putting them here for one simple reason: Of the remaining 12 teams to rank, I’m pretty certain that the Jets could beat every single one of them right now. And almost definitely if the game was at the Meadowlands.
21) Buffalo (2-5): Remember, this team barely lost to the Patriots on opening day, then beat the Dolphins (not tough to do) and the Vikings (slightly more impressive). Sure, they got smoked by the Bears and lost to the Lions, but I still think their defense is strong enough to keep them in most games. They just need a little more competence on the offensive side of the ball.
22) Green Bay (3-4): Hey, at worst, Brett Favre is having fun again. That is reason enough for him to come back and play this season. Well, that and his $7M base salary ($10M with incentives…)
23) Tennessee (2-5): Vince Young looks like he’s a slightly more conservative Mike Vick. He is managing games, limiting his mistakes and doing enough with both his legs and his arm to get his team a victory. And there’s not a team below the Titans that could stop him.
24) Houston (2-5): David Carr gets a mulligan for last week. Let’s not go doing things we can’t take back. Like voluntarily starting Sage Rosenfels.
25) Washington (2-5): This season is essentially lost, as they’re already three games out of the division lead. It says a lot that they’re not willing to put Jason Campbell into a game yet. Either he’s not what they hoped he’d be, or the coaches and GM are far too stubborn about cashing in now and building for the future.
26) Tampa Bay (2-5): I can’t put them any higher, even though I think they could beat a couple teams above them. They have two wins this year – one was a direct result of a horrible officiating call, the other came on a near record setting last second field goal. Not like they’re dominating anybody yet.
27) San Francisco (2-5): Their defense can’t stop anybody, but before last week’s implosion against the Bears, the offense was surprisingly competent. It hasn’t translated into wins yet, but for a team that finished last in their division in ’05, the schedule makers didn’t do them a whole lot of favors this year.
28) Cleveland (2-5): If they finally learn to trust their offense, this team could get dangerous in a hurry. They’re no threat to the Ravens and Bengals this season, but give them another year under Romeo Crennell and whoever takes over an offensive coordinator permanently, and they could do some serious damage.
29) Detroit (1-6): They really need to learn to play defense. And to stop drafting wide receivers. Charles Rogers is already gone; Mike Williams has played himself into the #6 role on the depth chart for most games. They’ve gone 1-3 on their wide receiver drafts. At least Ernie Sims looks like he might develop into a decent player.
30) Miami (1-6): They’re the exact opposite of Detroit. The defense is good (not spectacular, but good), but the offense can’t get it together long enough to sustain any type of drive. They need to figure out what went wrong and fix it, fast. Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor and the rest of the defense can’t carry this team for many more years.
31) Oakland (2-5): I’m not a believer. If they can take down a depleted Seahawks squad next Monday Night (finally – I can go to bed early on a Monday!) Then maybe I’ll give them some respect. But they’ve beaten up on a dejected Cardinals team, and they beat the Steelers while only producing about 90 yards of total offense. If that isn’t the definition of a “flukey” win, I don’t know what is. Maybe winning on a 62-yard last second field goal.
32) Arizona (1-7): This team is lost. On the plus side, a 1-15 or 2-14 season should put them atop the draft. They already have an offense to build around. They can deal a high pick for a boatload in return and build both the offensive and defensive lines.
That’s it for now. Hit up the comments or the e-mail link below and let me know what you think of this format. Don’t worry – most of the ranks won’t be nearly as long or well-thought out (not sure if that’s good or bad…) Anyway, lemme know what you think,
Lata.
Week 8 Picks
Well, it’s only taken one week, but I’m breaking my own rule. I’m sitting in my living room, watching CSI in High-Def. Luckily, no boobs, bombs, or car chases yet; just a stomach being dissected. If I can keep my dinner down, I should be able to focus on this week’s picks.
Of course, my focus wasn’t very good last week, when I went a wholly unspectacular 5-7-1 to bring my season record down to 46-48-6. I need a big week, and looking at the lines I have to choose from, I just might have the opportunity…
All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 9:15PM 10/26/06. Home Teams in CAPS.
Texans (+3) over TITANS: Sure, this is a perfect opportunity to devalue the team coming off a bye week. But the Texans put together a solid effort last week against a team that most “experts” (and Joe Schmoe idiots like me) had said were the best threat to take the AFC Title away from Indy. Oops.
EAGLES (-6.5) over Jaguars: After that uninspired effort last week, it’s awful hard for me to put any more faith in the Jags this year. Of course, I could say just about the same thing about Philly. I don’t feel too good about voluntarily backing a team whose quarterback was puking on the field in a tight game. You’d think he’d learn handle the pressure…
Falcons (+3.5) over BENGALS: I was wrong last week when I said the Bengals would be exposed as frauds. I was also wrong when I chose to play Chad Pennington over Mike Vick in a fantasy league in Week 7. Guess which mistake I haven’t learned from yet?
GIANTS (-9) over Bucs: I really think this Bucs team has a chance to surprise a lot of people, and maybe even finish the year around .500. They play a solid defense and don’t make too many mistakes on offense, reminiscent of the 2001 Patriots. I’m not saying Bruce Gradkowski and Matt Bryant are the new Brady/Vinateri, but Tampa could shock a few teams the rest of the way. Not this week though – even if this game has all the makings of a classic Giants’ letdown game.
49ers (+16) over BEARS: Only because this screams “Brian Griese has entered the game here in the 4th quarter… and we can see Kyle Orton warming up on the sidelines…”
PACKERS (-4) over Cardinals: Nice win for Green Bay last week. Pretty cool to see Brett Favre running around the sidelines like a six-year old again, picking up his receivers and celebrating a victory over one of the few teams in the league in worse shape than the Packers. Stunningly, they get to face another one of those this week…
CHIEFS (-6) over Seahawks: No Hasselbeck, no Alexander, and they’re playing in Arrowhead. Even if the Chiefs are coming off an exceedingly emotional win last week, the Seahawks are just too banged up to hang on in this game. Watch out for Damon Huard – Seattle’s pass defense is abominable right now.
SAINTS (-2) over Ravens: This has all the makings of a classic 10-6 barnburner. The Ravens have yet another incarnation of their dominant defense and do-nothing offense. The Saints have a pretty dynamic offense and a surprisingly competent defense. What are the chances that the fans of New Orleans are able to go through an entire season without seeing their team lose at home? They still have to get past the Bengals and Panthers in the Superdome, but it’s not entirely out of the question.
Rams (+9.5) over CHARGERS: Too many distractions for the Chargers’ defense, and too many weapons on the Rams’ side. St. Louis’ offense is just too damned good to be slowed down right now, especially by a defense missing a starting linebacker, starting safety, and playing a linebacker being hounded by steroids suspicions. Of course, Shawne Merriman might just go insane and obliterate anybody touching the ball this week. But that’s a whole other story.
Steelers (-9) over RAIDERS: Word right now is that Big Ben is starting this game. That is ludicrous. The Steelers could beat Oakland right now with me at starting quarterback. Actually, I’d like to see that. I’m kind of like a slower, fatter, shorter, less agile, weaker-armed Mike Vick. But I’m pretty sure I could find Hines Ward against whatever the Raiders decided to put on the field, and I know Charlie Batch could do the same (though his involvement would most likely lower the line to about -4.5)
Jets (+1.5) over BROWNS: It will be interesting to see how this young team handles the pressure of playing in the Dawg Pound. But considering all of their home games are in front of some of the most rabid football fans in the country – fourth only to Oakland, Philly and Dallas, I think they’ll perform just fine.
BRONCOS (-3) over Colts: Two feet of snow fell on Denver this week. We’ve all seen just how well Peyton Manning performs against good defenses in the snow when he had one of the best running games in the league. How’s he going to perform against the best defense in the league when his running game doesn’t break 75 total yards on the day?
PANTHERS (-5.5) over Cowboys: It’s Tony Romo’s first start. He’s playing on the road. He’s playing on National TV. He’s playing in primetime. He’s playing one of the top 10 defenses in the league. He’s going to have to deal with Terrell Owens at some point. He doesn’t stand a chance.
Patriots (+2) over VIKINGS: All you need to know is this: The Vikings have been pretty damned good all year and let’s face it; they easily could be 6-0. The Bears & Bills losses were both flukey, at best... But this is Laurence Maroney’s homecoming. He spent his college years wowing the good people of Minnesota with big game runs on the Metrodome turf. There’s a good chance he goes off – big-time.
Recap: Texans / EAGLES / Falcons / GIANTS / 49ers / PACKERS / CHIEFS / SAINTS / Rams / Steelers / Jets / BRONCOS / PANTHERS / Patriots
Let’s see if I can’t get it back to .500 this week folks.
Lata.
Week 7 Recap
Hey everybody - newsflash! I'm an idiot!
I wrote my nice little Week 7 recap last night while flipping channels and finally settling on WSOP coverage (I know - shocking). Then I closed up my laptop, shut down the TV, took a shower and went to bed.
Forgot to post the recap. Dumbass.
So, without further ado...
Quick Thoughts while wondering why Kenny Rogers isn't the villain in this whole mess...
n Let's get it out of the way right now - Kenny Rogers cheated. It's possible he cheated all season long (SI.com has a nice photo piece going all the way back to mid-season where he has a similar "spot" on his pitching hand). Now, because Tony LaRussa apparently forgot to bring his spine to the ballpark with him for Game 2 of THE WORLD FREAKIN' SERIES, Rogers got away with it. It's almost (not quite, but almost) a foregone conclusion that the series will get to a Game 6, meaning that Rogers will have to take the mound again. Think he'll find a more discreet spot to hide the pine tar? How about the back of his hat? Maybe inside his glove? But if he has any type of mark on his hand, he's toast. No way the umps (or LaRussa, for that matter) let him get away with it again.
n You'll all be happy to know that I've given up online poker. Again. I think this is the fourth or fifth time I've said that. But this time, I mean it, and mostly because I don't have a choice. The President signed a law a couple weeks ago that scared the bejeezus out of most of the online sites, so they closed up shop to US residents. Besides, I've got to save up for my (hopefully) triumphant return to Vegas in January...
n Let's see... No Matt Hasselbeck, no Shaun Alexander... No return trip to the Super Bowl for the Seahawks.
n Does any team have a bigger creampuff schedule than the Bears? Their entire schedule consists of four games against 2005 playoff teams - Seattle, NY Giants, New England and Tampa Bay. Ah the power of the NFC North - what team wouldn't like to have four games a year against the likes of Green Bay and Detroit?
n Although, my Patriots do get the Bills and Dolphins twice each... and the Jets, even at 4-3, don't exactly strike fear into the heart of their opponents. At least, not yet.
n In Week 7, I was impressed by:
o Peyton Manning. Hang on; I just threw up a little. But did you see the hit he took early in the game? I honestly thought his head got ripped off along with his helmet - I was fully expecting to see just a bloody stump lying on the turf of the RCA Dome. So what's he do? Comes back and throws for 300+ and 4TDs. Mental note - don't piss off Peyton Manning. Unless you play for the Patriots. Then you can do whatever you want.
o Minnesota Vikings. Not really "impressed", as much as "appreciative". Let's put it this way - the more games the Seahawks lose, the happier I am. Not because I don't like Seattle, but because it just makes their first round draft pick (the one the Patriots now own in exchange for Deion Branch) rise higher and higher up the board. Without Hasselbeck and Alexander for an extended period of time, I can see that pick vaulting into the top 10 pretty easily...
o New York Jets. They're above .500 this late in the season. That's enough for me to hand Coach of the Year to Eric Mangini right now. Of course, if the Bears or Colts stay undefeated, there's a chance that Mangini gets overlooked.
o Atlanta Falcons. Never thought they had a shot to win a shootout with the Steelers. Never in a million years. Without John Abraham, I figured they'd probably keep it close, maybe win on a late field goal (which, ironically, ended up being right). But to put up 41 on the Steelers - that's impressive. Of course, I blew it in my fantasy league when I sat Mike Vick in favor of Chad Pennington, but that's another story.
n (Speaking of fantasy... I play in two different leagues - one for fun, one for money. In my "fun" league, the commissioner has set it up so that runningbacks are devalued - it's easier for wide receivers and quarterbacks to dominate a league than runningbacks. This week, I somehow managed to lose to a team that had no starting quarterback - he had left Marc Bulger active on his bye, benching Ben Roethlisberger. I lost by just over 1 point, when Tiki Barber coughed up the ball for the first time in almost a year on Monday Night. The lesson - I suck at fantasy sports.)
n In Week 7, I was appalled by:
o The Dolphins. You allowed Joey Harrington to throw the ball SIXTY-TWO times for 414 yards?!? And you wonder why you lost to the Packers? More importantly - you have a top five receiver on your team in Chris Chambers, but he only gets two catches for 29 yards. That's inexcusable. And yes, I'm still bitter at wasting a third round pick on him.
o The Bills. There was never a doubt that they would lose the game, but they nearly forgot to show up for it at all. Listen - it's Buffalo. The fans up there are good fans, and they don't ask for much. But you've got to at least be competitive. They've got nothing else to enjoy. The Sabers? Please. (Yes, I realize they're currently 9-0-0 - I'm calling it right now, they will not win the Stanley Cup). The good fans that brought Buffalo Wings to the rest of the world don't ask for much, but could their team at least pretend to be competent?
o Cowboys Fans. Listen, I was a big Drew Bledsoe guy back in the day. I had the good fortune to meet him and basically hang out with him all day long at a trading card show when I was about ten years old, sitting with him as he signed endless cards, hats, helmets, pictures, and anything else people could shove under his nose just a few months after he was drafted. Seemed like a nice enough guy. So it's pretty sad for me to see what he's devolved into - a dinosaur. A relic of a quarterback who came along at the very end of an era, and got caught in the crossover. If he entered the league five years earlier, he's a first ballot hall of Fame QB. Five years later, and he's probably a career backup. But to see the fans in Dallas openly cheering and calling for Tony Romo, that was just disheartening. I can't imagine where Drew will end up next, but I can't see him playing in Dallas any longer. He's said it many times - he will not be a backup QB. He'll force his way out soon enough, but the way this week ended for him, it's kind of hard to watch.
I'll be back later in the week with my Week 8 picks. Maybe this time, I'll actually remember to post it after I write it.
Lata.
Week 7 Picks
I learned my lesson last week. No more picking games while watching any HDTV program that might show boobs, gambling, alcohol, or fast cars. I just can’t seem to concentrate when exposed to any of those things on the television. So no more Survivor or CSI while writing.
Luckily, I’m watching “Jeopardy!” right now. I’m not exactly expecting to see Alex Trebek flash the camera, while swilling a fifth of JD and rolling the dice in a makeshift backstage craps game. Or at least, I am praying that doesn’t happen…
So what to make of the lines this week? I mean, there are more road favorites (7) than home favorites (6). This might be the week my head finally implodes while trying to pick NFL games against the spread. The road favorites all seem like they should be sure things, but then again, there’s a reason the lines move.
41-41-5 on the season after a 4-9 Week 6. You know what that means – it’s a clean slate from here on out. That’s what I like – usually by now, we know a lot about these teams.
All Lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 7:45PM on 10/19/06. Home teams in CAPS.
Chargers (-5.5) over CHIEFS: Until Trent Green comes back, I will never lay one dollar with Kansas City. I don’t care how badly they got shellacked by the Steelers last week – Damon Huard is still the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. That’s enough to steer me to whatever team is opposing them.
Jaguars (-9.5) over TEXANS: I actually don’t feel great about this pick. I’m sure that Jacksonville is going to dominate this game in every way possible. But after yet another embarrassing performance last week in Dallas, Houston just might have something to prove. Whether or not they can prove it against the Jags’ defense remains to be seen. But if they can manage to limit the turnovers, they might be able to keep it close.
Patriots (-5.5) over BILLS: With six catches, Troy Brown becomes the Patriots’ all-time leading receiver. I say he gets the record by the third quarter, and he gets it with a touchdown catch. Too bad his interceptions while playing cornerback don’t count…
FALCONS (+2.5) over STEELERS: I want to see Big Ben do it against a good defense. The Chiefs are not a good defense. Atlanta has only allowed two passing touchdowns this season, and both were last week to Eli Manning. That’s better than the Bears, Cowboys and Patriots, and only behind the Broncos for tops in the league. If the Steelers can pull this one off, I’ll have a little more faith in the coming weeks. I promise.
DOLPHINS (-5) over Packers: This one is going to have to be won by the Miami defense. The offense should be able to put up decent numbers against the second worst pass defense in the league (I’m expecting a huge day out of Chris Chambers), but I’m not expecting more than 17 points out of Miami on the offensive side of the ball. If their defense can pressure Brett Favre, they should come up with a few key turnovers and hold Green Bay down.
Eagles (-5) over BUCS: Actually a little bit of a scary game for me to pick. The Eagles let one get away last week, losing to a ball control offense that did everything possible to just not make mistakes. That’s exactly what the Bucs have in place with Bruce Gradkowski – if they can control the clock and not let Donovan McNabb on the field, they can keep this game close.
JETS (-3.5) over Lions: If Eric Mangini can somehow manage to guide the Jets to a 7-9 or better record this year, he should win the Coach of the Year award, no questions asked. This game can get them over .500 at 4-3, and that could be a huge confidence boost to guide them through the rest of the year. With a few breaks, they could be in the Wild Card hunt right up to the end of the year.
Panthers (+3) over BENGALS: I think this is the week that we all realize just how much we all overrated the Bengals in the preseason… Steve Smith goes huge (again) to prove that he, and not Chad Johnson, is the most electrifying receiver in the game. And the Panthers take this one outright.
Broncos (-4.5) over BROWNS: So, for all the talk about the Bears this year, the Broncos just might have the most dominant defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed 37 points through five games (7.4 pts/gm). They’ve allowed one touchdown – a dink and dump pass from Tom Brady to Doug Gabriel in Foxboro last month – and eight field goals all season long. That, my friends, is dominance. And although they don’t force a ton of turnovers (4 INTs and 6 Fumbles), they control the game. Now if only their offense could get it in gear… (Random side note – Kellen Winslow Jr. will either be a monster or a non-factor this weekend. He had to bury his younger brother this week. It will either motivate him or be a huge weight on his mind.)
COLTS (-9) over Redskins: This pick is contingent on one factor. If the Redskins coaching staff is too stupid or too stubborn to give the ball to Clinton Portis at least 30 times, then they have no shot at winning this game, and Indy should win by 20. If Washington decides to run the hell out of the ball and control the clock (hey, the Titans and Jets provided the blueprint on how to slow down Indy’s offense), then they might have a chance to pull off the upset.
(Random programming note – Survivor just started. There is a lot of chick-fighting in this episode, as the teams are essentially wrestling to drag opposing members fifty feet. I take no responsibility for my final few picks here…)
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Vikings: What a hell of a game Seattle & St. Louis played last week. Just a back and forth slugfest. Reminiscent of the Rams/Lions game from a few weeks back, it seemed like neither team wanted to hang on to a lead. This one should be easier for the ‘Hawks, but watch out if they get a big lead early – their pass defense is already sketchy (see: Week 6 – Bulger, Marc). If they have to defend against a team passing on almost every down to climb back into the game, it could get close in a hurry.
Cardinals (-3) over RAIDERS: If the Raiders don’t win this one, they won’t win one this season. And I’m still picking against them. By the way, just as an illustration of why stats don’t always tell the whole story – take a guess which NFL team leads the league in fewest passing yards allowed with only 669 in five games (133.8 per game)? That’s right – it’s the defensive juggernaut that calls the Coliseum home, your 2006 Oakland Raiders! Of course, that’s because they’re usually so far behind that every team just runs out the clock on them…
COWBOYS (-3) over Giants: The Giants have a couple wins this year against a couple real good teams – Philly & Atlanta. The Philly win was more a loss by the Eagles than a win by the Giants, but the Atlanta game last week was impressive. A win this week would give them the best divisional record in the NFC East. But here’s the catch – the Cowboys are actually looking like they’re starting to come together as a team (i.e. they’ve learned to appease T.O. long enough to shut him up). Julius Jones has three straight 100-yard rushing games (and had 94 in the game before the run started) and the Giants’ run defense is in the bottom half of the league. If Drew Bledsoe can get the ball to T.O. early and often, the Cowboys should pull away shortly after the half.
RECAP: Chargers / Jaguars / Patriots / FALCONS / DOLPHINS / Eagles / JETS / Panthers / Broncos / COLTS / SEAHAWKS / Cardinals / COWBOYS
And before I sign off, I need to pass along a link for you all.
Those of you who know me know that I’m not exactly a big fan of politics. As a matter of fact, I try to stay away from it at every turn. Until it affects me or my family/friends directly, I simply couldn’t care less.
Then my mother (who else?) told me about a political campaign ad in the race for governor of Massachusetts. And after watching it, I need to pass it along.
I endorse this candidate in no way whatsoever (in fact, I can’t say I support any of the four candidates for Governor of Massachusetts this year, and that’s pretty sad). The ad, however, might be the greatest political ad ever. It puts politics into perspective, and it is funny as hell. You’d never hear a politician say the things that are implied in this ad.
So, without building it up too much more, here you go.
Lata.
Quick Thoughts - Week 6
Ah, that's more like it. A nice 4-9 week to bring me right back to reality. Let's just say I'm more than OK with the fact that I placed exactly zero bets this week. And I am even over the fact that I placed none last week, since I probably would have blown half the winnings on bets in Week 6 anyway.
"So what happened?" you ask... Well, I have no explanations. But lets just say I won't be writing my picks on a Thursday night anymore, especially while watching Survivor and CSI. Just can't concentrate while watching strippers and The Strip in HD...
Other thoughts over the past four days...
n Steve Lyons got a 100% raw deal. There is no reason to have fired him for his joking with Lou Pinella. And if they are trying to roll everything he has done this postseason (i.e. Pinella and his comments about the blind guy in the stands) then they should at the very least fine or suspend Thom Brennaman as well for going along with both jokes and not speaking up. Even worse, he had only one game left on his contract - they could have simply let him go after the season, without any pomp & circumstance. But now he is labeled as "racist" and "offensive", and may never get another big time job in baseball again. Ridiculous. And if you want to voice an opinion on this, here is the man to voice it with: David Hill, FOX Sports Chairman. E-mail him at david.hill@fox.com
n Speaking of Pinella... I can't wait for the first beanball war to break out with the Cubs & Cardinals, when Pinella goes after Pujols and the Cards retaliate by hitting A-Rod...
n ... Just checking to make sure you're awake. Though the proposed A-Rod for Aramis Ramirez deal makes a ton of sense - for The Yankees. Besides, the Cubs are perennial losers. They might as well employ the one player who embodies that more than any other - all kinds of expectations in the regular season, and no chance in the postseason.
n Back to football. I fell asleep just after Mike Brown scored the first defensive touchdown for the Bears last night, and I did so with absolute confidence that I was going to miss something spectacular. Guess I did. Although I think I would have enjoyed watching Dennis Green's post-game press conference a lot more than the game itself...
n From the "Don't say I didn't warn you" department... Did you see Marc Bulger's stat line this week? 360 and 3 TDs? Back at our annual fantasy draft in my NFL.com league, we gave one of my buddies a ton of shit about how he'd have to become a Rams fan this year - he drafted Bulger, Tory Holt & Jeff Wilkins. He's since moved right to the top of the league, tied atop the board in record (5-1) and just 12 total points behind the top team (592 in six weeks). Can't argue with results.
n Just wish I got a chance to play him this week with St. Louis on a Bye. Damnit.
n With all the talk surrounding the Raiders' Randy Moss and Jerry Porter being traded this afternoon, supposedly either one to my beloved Patriots, let me say this. Randy Moss was a superstar from the day he was drafted, and it looked like he lost interest in the game after his team blew their 1998 season in the NFC Title Game against Atlanta. Ever since then, he has looked disinterested in the game, even going so far as to say that he "plays when he wants to". This is what arises from a lack of faith in your team - why should he give 110% when the rest of his team seems destined to fail?
A Wide Receiver is only as good as his Quarterback. And if you were to put a Top-5 talent at receiver (Moss) together with a Top-2 talent at QB (Brady), it is not hard to imagine how well it could, and should work. But if New England acquires Moss, they will only be doing so for this season. He's a one and done pickup - any more than that (and even more so if they go on to win a Super Bowl with him) and he will become a distraction.
Winning only carries a person's motivation so far - just look at Lawyer Milloy & Ty Law. Randy Moss wants to win, but he also wants to get paid and be the superstar that he is, and neither of those things will happen in New England. If he comes here and gets his ring, he'll turn in to T.O. (circa 2005) immediately after the parade down Boylston St. If he comes here and doesn't get his ring, then he's got no reason to give his best effort after this season. He'll still get paid, and if he can't win a title here, he can't win one period.
n In Week 6, I was impressed by...
o The Giants. They did a hell of a job containing the Atlanta offense, even if Warrick Dunn managed to put up 140+ yards against them (90 came on one run). New York looked good on both sides of the ball, and picked up a big win in the process.
o The Cowboys. That was a game they needed to win, and win big. They did. In the first half, it looked like they were going to coast along and do just enough to squeak out a win. I don't know what Bill Parcells told them at halftime, but they were a different team when they came back out of the tunnel.
o The Steelers. Guess they're not dead after all, eh?
o The Bears' Defense. If they can play like that for four quarters, they don't need Rex Grossman to be the best QB in the game. They just need him to stop turning the ball over six times in a game. (Random Side Note: In my Yahoo fantasy league, my players had scored 9 TDs before Grossman ever took the field, and I had a 30-point lead. By the time last night's game ended, my team still had 9 TDs, and I only won by 13 points. Grossman scored negative 17 points for me. He had a 10.7 QB Rating!)
o Matt Leinart. Yeah, they lost. And yes, maybe if the offense hadn't stalled at the 23-yard line on the final drive, Neil Rackers' kick stays just inside the uprights. But he looked awful good for most of the game, with his only real mistake coming on a completely blindsided sack when his offensive line blew an assignment.
n In Week 6, I was appalled by...
o Dennis Green. You don't play not to lose that early. They eased off the accelerator in the second quarter, and it ended up costing them the game. The dinner theater act in the pressroom after the game was a nice touch, but let's face it - Green's play calling blew that game. He's got 8 more games with the Cardinals, max.
o Edgerrin James. 36 carries, 56 yards. The single worst rushing performance in NFL history by any player with 35+ carries. Hard not to be appalled by that. Think he misses Indy?
o Rex Grossman (I hated a lot of things in this game). If that was more of a "regression to the mean" for Grossman than just simply a bump in the road, the Bears' chances could be in trouble. They still haven't played anybody serious, and that could hurt them. They've got a five game run starting in November that goes @Giants, @Jets (might as well just stay in Jersey for a week), @Patriots, Vikings, @Rams. If they come out of that stretch 3-2, I'll be impressed.
o The Bills, Redskins, and Bengals. Buffalo and Cincinnati at least coughed up winnable games on the road, and Cincy really got hosed by a ludicrous Personal Foul call. But the Skins gave one away to a winless team, at home, when they were leading for the better part of the first half, and had caught all the way back up early in the fourth. What happened to their supposedly unbeatable defense? Weren't they supposed to be all the experts' sleeper pick this season? They might not win seven games this year - in the NFC East, that ought to leave them six games out.
OK, I've written enough today. I'll come back again later in the week with thoughts for Week 7, and in Week 8, I'll start to refine (read: fix) my playoff predictions.
Lata.
