The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 8 Picks

Well, it’s only taken one week, but I’m breaking my own rule. I’m sitting in my living room, watching CSI in High-Def. Luckily, no boobs, bombs, or car chases yet; just a stomach being dissected. If I can keep my dinner down, I should be able to focus on this week’s picks.

Of course, my focus wasn’t very good last week, when I went a wholly unspectacular 5-7-1 to bring my season record down to 46-48-6. I need a big week, and looking at the lines I have to choose from, I just might have the opportunity…

All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 9:15PM 10/26/06. Home Teams in CAPS.

Texans (+3) over TITANS: Sure, this is a perfect opportunity to devalue the team coming off a bye week. But the Texans put together a solid effort last week against a team that most “experts” (and Joe Schmoe idiots like me) had said were the best threat to take the AFC Title away from Indy. Oops.

EAGLES (-6.5) over Jaguars: After that uninspired effort last week, it’s awful hard for me to put any more faith in the Jags this year. Of course, I could say just about the same thing about Philly. I don’t feel too good about voluntarily backing a team whose quarterback was puking on the field in a tight game. You’d think he’d learn handle the pressure…

Falcons (+3.5) over BENGALS: I was wrong last week when I said the Bengals would be exposed as frauds. I was also wrong when I chose to play Chad Pennington over Mike Vick in a fantasy league in Week 7. Guess which mistake I haven’t learned from yet?

GIANTS (-9) over Bucs: I really think this Bucs team has a chance to surprise a lot of people, and maybe even finish the year around .500. They play a solid defense and don’t make too many mistakes on offense, reminiscent of the 2001 Patriots. I’m not saying Bruce Gradkowski and Matt Bryant are the new Brady/Vinateri, but Tampa could shock a few teams the rest of the way. Not this week though – even if this game has all the makings of a classic Giants’ letdown game.

49ers (+16) over BEARS: Only because this screams “Brian Griese has entered the game here in the 4^th quarter… and we can see Kyle Orton warming up on the sidelines…”

PACKERS (-4) over Cardinals: Nice win for Green Bay last week. Pretty cool to see Brett Favre running around the sidelines like a six-year old again, picking up his receivers and celebrating a victory over one of the few teams in the league in worse shape than the Packers. Stunningly, they get to face another one of those this week…

CHIEFS (-6) over Seahawks: No Hasselbeck, no Alexander, and they’re playing in Arrowhead. Even if the Chiefs are coming off an exceedingly emotional win last week, the Seahawks are just too banged up to hang on in this game. Watch out for Damon Huard – Seattle’s pass defense is abominable right now.

SAINTS (-2) over Ravens: This has all the makings of a classic 10-6 barnburner. The Ravens have yet another incarnation of their dominant defense and do-nothing offense. The Saints have a pretty dynamic offense and a surprisingly competent defense. What are the chances that the fans of New Orleans are able to go through an entire season without seeing their team lose at home? They still have to get past the Bengals and Panthers in the Superdome, but it’s not entirely out of the question.

Rams (+9.5) over CHARGERS: Too many distractions for the Chargers’ defense, and too many weapons on the Rams’ side. St. Louis’ offense is just too damned good to be slowed down right now, especially by a defense missing a starting linebacker, starting safety, and playing a linebacker being hounded by steroids suspicions. Of course, Shawne Merriman might just go insane and obliterate anybody touching the ball this week. But that’s a whole other story.

Steelers (-9) over RAIDERS: Word right now is that Big Ben is starting this game. That is ludicrous. The Steelers could beat Oakland right now with me at starting quarterback. Actually, I’d like to see that. I’m kind of like a slower, fatter, shorter, less agile, weaker-armed Mike Vick. But I’m pretty sure I could find Hines Ward against whatever the Raiders decided to put on the field, and I know Charlie Batch could do the same (though his involvement would most likely lower the line to about -4.5)

Jets (+1.5) over BROWNS: It will be interesting to see how this young team handles the pressure of playing in the Dawg Pound. But considering all of their home games are in front of some of the most rabid football fans in the country – fourth only to Oakland, Philly and Dallas, I think they’ll perform just fine.

BRONCOS (-3) over Colts: Two feet of snow fell on Denver this week. We’ve all seen just how well Peyton Manning performs against good defenses in the snow when he had one of the best running games in the league. How’s he going to perform against the best defense in the league when his running game doesn’t break 75 total yards on the day?

PANTHERS (-5.5) over Cowboys: It’s Tony Romo’s first start. He’s playing on the road. He’s playing on National TV. He’s playing in primetime. He’s playing one of the top 10 defenses in the league. He’s going to have to deal with Terrell Owens at some point. He doesn’t stand a chance.

Patriots (+2) over VIKINGS: All you need to know is this: The Vikings have been pretty damned good all year and let’s face it; they easily could be 6-0. The Bears & Bills losses were both flukey, at best... But this is Laurence Maroney’s homecoming. He spent his college years wowing the good people of Minnesota with big game runs on the Metrodome turf. There’s a good chance he goes off – big-time.

Recap: Texans / EAGLES / Falcons / GIANTS / 49ers / PACKERS / CHIEFS / SAINTS / Rams / Steelers / Jets / BRONCOS / PANTHERS / Patriots

Let’s see if I can’t get it back to .500 this week folks.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 10:05 PM