The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 5 Picks

Such a weird day today. I tried to sleep on the 4-hour train back up from New York City. Unfortunately, there is no mode of mass transportation that is designed to comfort men of my, um, dimensions. 52” shoulders and a 6’0” frame are just not made to fit into a single train seat, no matter how they are contorted.

Needless to say, by the time I got back to Providence, walked the two miles back to my car, drove home (with three coffees by my side – always be prepared), played with the boys and unpacked the overnight bag, it was time for baseball.

I had made all these grandiose plans for the day – I was going to go shoot photos of fall foliage a couple of towns over, maybe take the boys out for a ride in the car and let them get some fresh air, try to write some live blogs during the games today (hey, I’ve got a week off work – might try to be a real blogger for awhile). Of course, after five hours on a train, immediately preceded by three hours sitting on a bench in Penn Station, I hit my couch, and never saw anything after the second inning of the Yankees/Tigers.

Such a waste.

All lines from Sportsbook.com. Current at 10:45PM 10/5/06. 7-7 last week, 28-30-2 to date…

Titans (+19) over COLTS: This is actually sad. There’s just no limit to how bad the Titans can get. To be honest, I never thought I’d see the day when there could be a 20-point line in an NFL game. This should be a college line. And yet, I just can’t help but think that the Titans might just be bad enough to let Indy cover this line. I’ll still be teasing it to +25…

GIANTS (-4.5) over Redskins: The Giants have had two weeks to get over their abysmal performance at Seattle in Week Three. The Redskins miraculously managed to put up 36 points against a very, very tough (and apparently, overmatched) Jaguars defense. We’ll know one thing after this game – either the Giants are going to stand up and rebound from the stink fest they put on out on the West Coast, or the Redskins’ offense is finally starting to come around.

VIKINGS (-6.5) over Lions: I came so, so close to picking up Brad Johnson for just one start this week. But to be honest, I think it will be the Vikes’ running game that breaks out against Detroit this week. As for Detroit, well, they’re well on their way to the #1 overall pick. Just how they’d use it remains to be seen…

SAINTS (-6.5) over Buccaneers: Although I think the Bucs could give Detroit a run for their money. Tampa might just consider throwing in the towel right now – their defense is old, their quarterback is recovering from surgery a major organ, their wide receivers and running back look worn down this early in the year, and they are already last in the division. Of course, just about all the same things could have been said back in 2001, when Drew Bledsoe sheared an artery and the Patriots began a dynastic run… sorry, I’m rambling.

Rams (-3) over PACKERS: I wish I had more than just Isaac Bruce on my fantasy football team this week. Every St. Louis offensive player should be able to go off, most notably, Marc Bulger & Steven Jackson. Brett Favre will either have a monster game or another stinker, nothing in-between. He’s either going to prove all the critics right with another 150 and two picks, or he’s going to shut them up once again with 325 and three TDs.

Dolphins (+10) over PATRIOTS: Few things to consider in this game. First, the Pats put everything they had into last week’s domination of the Bengals. Admittedly, Cincinnati has a much, MUCH better offense than Miami at this point, but the Pats defense is a little banged up – corner Ellis Hobbs broke his wrist last week. And even more, New England has a bye next week to look forward to. The Patriots will win (and move to 4-1 at the bye; not too shabby), but I think it’ll be a little closer than the 10-point line.

BEARS (-10) over Bills: Ha… hahahahahahahahahah….. Sorry, I was just thinking about J. P. Losman facing Chicago’s defen... AAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH. Hey, while we’re here… anybody think that the success the Bears are having might drive Kyle Orton to drink? Sorry, cheap shot…

Browns (+8.5) over PANTHERS: Yeah, I know. I’m overvaluing Cleveland’s win over the Raiders last week. But it was a pretty impressive comeback, even if it was against Oakland. Carolina looked good in slowing down the Saints’ bandwagon last week, but I’m not totally sold on them as getting their season back on track. Not yet at least.

JAGUARS (-7) over Jets: Think the Jags might be just a wee bit pissed about the way last weeks’ game ended? More importantly – when will the NFL do away with the inane sudden death overtime system? I mean, seriously – if the game is basically going to be decided by a coin flip, why even play the first 60 minutes? Just flip a coin, and that will be that. It would certainly save everyone a lot of time.

Chiefs (-3) over CARDINALS: Well, I certainly underestimated the Chiefs’ offense last week, and I absolutely underestimated their defense. I actually voluntarily tried to pick up their defensive unit this week – they’ve really come a long way. They are a ball hawking group that has a knack for creating turnovers. And when you’re facing a rookie QB making his first start, well, that’s a deadly combination.

49ERS (-3.5) over Raiders: Two words: Pure Torture. Why in Gods’ name would the NFL subject us to this?

EAGLES (-2) over Cowboys: Gee, ya think? I can’t imagine that Philly would be a little jacked up for this game. The only problem that could arise if it gets a little too emotional – all the hype, all the noise, all the adrenaline, it would be kind of like a Super Bowl atmosphere. And we’ve all seen how Donovan handles that type of pressure.

Steelers (+3) over CHARGERS: I was all set to pick San Diego here, but I talked myself out of it. Remember a few weeks ago, how the Steelers got completely embarrassed by the Jaguars. They got outplayed, out-hit, and out-smarted and all on national TV. I think they remember it too. Now it’s their turn to show that they’re still the champs, and they’re still the team to beat.

BRONCOS (-4) over Ravens: One of these weeks, a team is finally going to be able to both expose the Ravens offense and survive long enough against their defense to win. I think Denver has just the right type of team to do it – they hit hard, they can pressure the QB and push the ball on the ground. The only problem is just how effective Jake Plummer will be against the Ravens’ D. My guess is that Shanahan takes the control out of Plummer’s hands, just lets him take the snap and run a basic, ball protect offense. No mistakes, and the Broncos win.

RECAP: Titans / GIANTS / VIKINGS / SAINTS / Rams / Dolphins / BEARS / Browns / JAGUARS / Chiefs / 49ERS / EAGLES / Steelers / BRONCOS

See ya Monday-ish…

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 12:11 AM